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A close above $1.69, and we should see $2.49!
Yo baseball fan, listen up!!!
It's like dis...
yo...
we know the name
but does it matter
ain’t found no fame,
not much chatter
needs new buyers,
strong hands,
new takers
no mo scale-up selling
from da market-makers
don’t take no einstein
not hard to divine
dilution in the pipeline
decline by design
attrition not contrition
mo money to be sourced
more stock to be forced
down our narrow throats
without our say
without our votes
it’s critical, pitiful
i’m fearful and cynical
you know what I’m sayin
its our money they’re playin
did i fall on a grenade
have i been played
have they pulled the pin
committed the ultimate sin
does it make it to heaven
even get back to seven
is it solid
or gold-plated
loved or hated
or just our hopes
that r inflated
hope i am right-on
not wrong instead
didn't lose my head
wasn't fooled or mislead
cuz the story, i believed
new value was conceived
not of no consequence
but a new market sense
a mark for the industry
in cost, safety and quality
bought it cause I liked it
hoping I’d be millionaired
thought larry had true grit
was my thinking that impaired
was i playing it smart
or fooled by my heart
a loser from the start
just playing a hunch
and betting a bunch
getting handed my lunch
da ultimate sucker punch
thought before i got old
id’be fine, i'd be rich
and down wit one cold
not cryoport’s bitch
not what I am used to
not a buy and holder
still hoping and praying
dey need it safer and colder
C, Did I say Memorial Day? I must have meant Labor Day! I am still long, but have lost all faith in the Thomas Theorem. Nevertheless, CYRX's chart and price action are bullish, and in the interest of keeping our expectations and feedback loops positive, I will adhere to that story.
hey omphalos, out there in the street
getting broker, feeling heat
I can hear you!
hey you, standing on the corner
empty pockets, fading hopes
can you hear me?
hey you, out there in the dark of night
don’t let them tell you it’s not right
hey you, you have struck a common note
we are all in the same sinking boat
we are with you!
hey you, with your finger on the pulse
waiting for a heartbeat
would you help me?
we are all running out-of-time
hey brother, could you spare a dime?
for its only been a story
everything for show
money spent in vain
can’t seem to clear the hurdle
we are all feeling the pain?
hey you, we once had rich lives
now down-and-out with the wives
I can feel you!
hey you, once mighty man of stone
we are all displaced, you are not alone
we all feel you!
hey you, there is hope, we all continue to pray
united we are, or it’s all at our in-laws we stay
Even if the company becomes profitable this year, which I guess is in the realm of possibilities, we still need to keep it real. More than 60% of the companies that went public in the last three decades no longer exist; and only 4% now have more than $1 billion in annual revenue.
If Cryoport could sustain profitability, they would still have to grow it year over year. Even the highly successful 4% have a relatively protracted growth curve.
First, there is entrepreneurial phase where an idea is transformed into a viable business model and growth is modest; the average length of this “runway” is five years. Second, an inflection point where revenue breaks out into an exponential trajectory.”
The odds against Cryoport developing into a strong growth company are not only staggering, but given Cryoport’s tendency for slow sales growth, it would not be linear, and still take many, many years.
Expectations...
Let’s give Cryoport an A+ for product, and A+ for establishing international service centers to support product maintenance, and customer service, and an honors A+ for establishing relationships with the likes of FedEx and DHL, to handle logistics and other channels used to both market and deliver the product to the customers.
From all appearances, Cryoport has created a breakthrough value proposition. They have created a transformational product and service. It is a virtual category killer in the sense that it changes an entire market, by offering a safer, better, cheaper, alternative.
So, why is it taking so long for the development and commercialization of their product, when everyone agrees that Cryoport has created a new industry standard? Is it internal organizational issues, external issues related to competition, channel partners and the supply chain, or a combination of the both? Or are we being led to believe that that the improvements in cost and quality are monumental, when they are in fact, incremental?
There are the questions we must ask, along with the most important question of all...Can Cryoport raise their level of performance to meet these expectations?
as promised milestones are not reached and become oh so dangerously near
CEO’s of companies will tell shareholders anything they believe they want to hear
in lieu of real results like sales, earnings, big contracts, or any real news to leak
they will resort to to mis-direction, and cliche ridden discourse called CEO speak
the lesson to be learned by this board’s posters and all readers
is we should invest our money, but not our trust in our leaders
because as is always the case; CEOs will say good things are coming soon
and regardless of reality and fact, they will promise you the moon
CEOs are not necessarily the only ones to blame for using this tool
for this is not an innate trait but something they had to learn in B-school
nevertheless, most corporate CEOs seem to take to lying like ducks to water
and as is so often the case the shareholders are blindly led to financial slaughter
the things they say are standard; although they may seem impromptu and varied
regardless of the numbers, share price, or that shareholders are getting buried
they say that there are big sales in the pipeline & profitability will be soon;
smirking, as they get in their new Benzes and rush to their tee times at noon
they may make new hires appearing to want to share the spotlight and fame
but when sales and earnings disappoint, there is now a new CFO to blame
when all fails he will swear he tried to save her, even resorting to praying to the lord
saying the economy was bad, the timing was wrong, and his hands were tied by the board
he looked so good on paper; Maxim and other companies also thought so
but before we hired Larry, should we have asked them why they let Larry go
truth is, the “E” in CEO means expendable, they come and go and are tossed aside
that's why they are so well paid, have golden parachutes, and are always grateful for the ride
Baseball Fan: please relay this message to Bostonman. TIA!!!
Bostonman:
you are worthy of the greatest honor and praise
your laureate's repartee never ceases to amaze
from East to West, Boston, Mass. to sunny L.A.
your sagacity imparts lessons from the past and today
just like a real estate mogul, or a veteran golf pro
or an old Talmudic scholar, you are always in the know
metaphors, allusions, double entendres, and allegories
we must decipher the meaning of your long, cryptic stories
the key is often held by the inmates and not their keeper
to ignore them is a shortcut to the financial grim reaper
lessons from the asylum are forever iconic; always intact
we only need to be guided as to what will be their impact
so please be patient with our disheartened man of spice
he has come up snake eyes after rolling the Cryoport dice
his faith has wavered, and now he has resorted to whining
but you can't blame him when CYRX's price is always declining
as for me, I often look to the heavens, and the skies above
but not for the Lord’s guidance, nor love's flight of the dove
but the visage of a winged warrior who has left his lofty perch
for it is only he, that can provide the answer to my cold search
Sageman:
there’s really no reason to come out and play
same old story; so there’s really nothing to say
no new comments, remarks, or any mystical musing
just continued consternation from reports that are confusing
but always willing to respond to one of my favorite spice-men
still trying to understand why CYRX is not trading at eight, nine, or ten
lets segue on to the subject of trading and investing
where all our hopes and prayers, and capital are resting
the Cryoport tech is still disruptive, and creates a new paradigm
yet the company and it’s stock price, continue to waste our time
we thought we were in the clear, when we rid ourselves of Berry
and replaced the techie with an experienced CEO named Larry
but experience or not, and a supposed better management style
the results have been disappointing and have missed by a mile
while new technologies take time to get adopted and understood
it seemed like this product would be a big hit in the cold chain hood
the members of this board and some others, are all big CYRX fans
yet CYRX is still under-the-radar, and remains one of the also rans
so until they put up numbers and the stock gets noticed by the masses
investors and shareholders will continue to take it up their collective asses
Link to an article that should be read by everybody on this board.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/Fundamentals.html
Your story is like a tornado, spinning over my head
Lifting me up me in your promises, better left unread
You’re the right kind of CEO, to feed my inner fantasy
The consummate liar, you know you were born to be
You’re a dream maker, heart breaker, money taker
That’s all you’ll ever be...
Capitulation...should close higher on the day on huge volume, putting in a key reversal. $2.05 by Memorial Day.
doesn't get below $1.20 to $1.17
Another rambling and incoherent discourse, that ranks right up there as one of your more comical posts...ever. Although, it does fall far short of your numerous attempts to rewrite the laws of physics and the dilutive effects of stock offerings.
I really don't think it's necessary to lecture me on why this company has yet to find success, or what it's going to take for this company to be profitable. Almost every suggestion that I submitted to LS one year ago is being adopted today. Everything I have ever written about this company has not only been prescient, but accurate. It only took you 5 years of hindsight and a 96% drawdown for you to realize, what I had warned about in advance had actually had merit.
That being said, technical analysis is merely a tool I employ to time my trades. If you truly understood TA, instead of just " dropping" the names of some rudimentary indicators that professional traders don’t use anymore, then you would understand. Quite frankly, I couldn't care less if John Bollinger himself taught you how to use " Bollinger Bands", or Tiger Woods taught you how to play golf, because you still wouldn't be able to shoot a 59, you still wouldn't know how to construct or interpret a chart properly, and you still couldn't make any sense out of today's markets.
The current rally in the broader market has been on steadily declining volume which indicates declining investor participation. It has also taken place during a time of horrible economic fundamentals, and global news about one disaster after another. While there are times when the markets are driven by news and fundamentals, this is obviously not one of them. You may be the only person left standing, who doesn’t realize that the majority of the recent rally has been fueled by the Fed’s $6-8 billion daily injections of POMO cash, and perhaps recently by hot money from the yen carry- trade, being repatriated to the U.S. from emerging countries.
CHK and SLB went up, because the entire market went up and their sector (energy) went up. The stocks’ actual fundamentals were probably responsible for 30% of their respective increases. Just as the proverbial dart-throwing chimp could have bought any tech stock during the dot-com bubble and made money, you could have bought almost any stock during the Bernanke bubble and made money. Please don’t try to convince anybody that you are this savvy stock picker, because we have all read your compelling analysis of the markets. >>While my Short the bond market hasn't panned out yet, it's only a matter of time. Rates won't stay down forever.<<
Perhaps, but you have to know what to do with that knowledge. As always, you are taking some extraneous facts and trying to force fit it to a template of logic that people already know is true, e.g., there is an earthquake in Japan, CYRX is down a few cents, then the earthquake must have caused the selloff in CYRX. You might as well say, the square root of 6 is 3, because the square root of 4 is 2. Your rationale has to be more than just an assumption of the truth. Rather, it has to be grounded in fact and logic, otherwise your explanation is just masquerading as proof. The stock is good at these levels. Will the OTs ever get their money back - highly unlikely. Will I sell my current position at $2.05 before Memorial Day - just watch.
Not trying to bust your chops, but I think the Gruenmeister is trying to say, you have to spend money, to make money. Cryoport hasn't abandoned the FedEx marketing concept, but instead, has decided to expand their marketing efforts. 8) Don't rely entirely on FedEx to market the product. Create a value network employing new channels and new use venues, and begin to position Cryoport to be where the money in the value chain will be, not where it is today.
$2.05...I guess earthquakes in Japan, are now bullish for CYRX, LOL!
About time!
These are the 10 suggestions I forwarded to LS exactly 1 year ago!
1) Out-source a qualified business development expert.
2) Reevaluate product, pricing, market size, value proposition, positioning and key messages.
3) Concentrate on the basics of business development, sales and deal flow, rather than the abstract benefits of building brand awareness. Capture the attention of the target market immediately and fill your pipeline, so you can start generating cash flow and feedback.
4) Utilize inbound marketing by leveraging available online techniques, e.g. web content, search engine optimization, social networking, blogs, webinars, feeds, RSS, and white papers. Seek efficiency through optimization, content and social media to help get found in organic search results. Specific & relevant content on landing pages, and keyword optimization, are critical marketing strategies along with a well designed Web site.
5) Consider cutting prices. Cryoport is going to need to be profitable at lower price per unit and low initial volumes. They need to six sigma up and optimize asset utilization, so they can still earn attractive returns at discount pricing.
6) Focus on getting marketing and sales priorities aligned, and having narrowed "target market initiatives" to the essential value propositions; the technological superiority of liquid nitrogen, and the cost benefit of using the Express Shipper.
7) Expose, educate, engage, excite and enlist the end user to reach out to Cryoport. Convince the target market Cryoport's offering is worth the cost and the effort of switching over, and communicate the value clearly and concisely. Prove you have the "best" solution and change the customer's perception of value.
8) Don't rely entirely on FedEx to market the product. Create a value network employing new channels and new use venues, and begin to position Cryoport to be where the money in the value chain will be, not where it is today.
9) Don't target markets that are attractive to established sustaining innovators. Instead of targeting customers already using existing products, target non-consumption. If non-consumers are not available, look at low-end disruption. Target over served customers in the low end of the mainstream market, and potential customers who lacked money/skill to buy & use existing products.
10) Gradually, penetrate the market, and progressively move up, till you eventually render the competition's product obsolete.
Intraday trade is not that meaningful. The close is what is important, and the market has not closed yet- maybe it closes at $1.60, maybe it closes below $1.25. We'll see. As long as it closes above $1.25, it still looks good technically.
At least she didn't say that you can't understand normal thinking!
“There are some people who live in a dream world, and there are some who face reality; and then there are those who turn one into the other.”
It's all relative. The broader markets are experiencing low volume and below normal ranges also. So what do you expect? It's a very light week as far as economic reports are concerned and earnings season is a week away.
If the powers-that-be can manipulate an entire market, and engineer one of the greatest bull rallies of all time, during a time when the economic fundamentals have been absolutely horrid, and global headline news is about one disaster after another, then whomever, can rally a single stock, with an average daily volume of 75,000, the requisite 0.65 cents without news.
And George Soros said, "I don't play the game by a particular set of rules; I look for changes in the rules of the game."
It isn’t my opinion that changes constantly, it is my observations. Successful traders think dynamically, and are not locked into static trading ideas. The market is constantly changing and the trader/investor who goes into a trade/investment with a fixed point-of-view will inevitably get hurt. Cryoport is a case in point.
A good trader doesn't so much predict the market as identify what it is doing. That means keeping an open mind to market action and being ready to switch from the long side to the short side (or to exit altogether) as conditions dictate.
Static thinking can be appealing. It is alluring to think that there is a single, unchanging order to the marketplace and that some particular contrivance can discern that order. Static traders want rules they can count upon to make money, now and forever. Unfortunately, there is no Holy Grail.
Markets change their rules with regularity, based upon shifts in interest rates, currencies, economic conditions, commodity prices, sentiment, and institutional participation. Even the time series of price changes from one period, may not be drawn from the same distribution, as the time series of price changes from the next, or the one before it, never mind from day-to-day or week-to-week.
Catching moves in markets requires that we see (in real time) the rules shift as they are happening. Which, by definition, means that we cannot be locked into any single set of rules or ideas for very long.
A company's stock's price is forward looking and does not necessarily need confirmation in the way of news to price itself. Cryoport's stock's value, is by business school definition, the present value of all future dividends. In the absence of any sales or dividends, then it is comes down to the present value of all expected future dividends. If the market believes that there will be sales and dividends in the future that will justify a $2.05 share price, then the market will trade there sans any news. When experts say the market is forward looking, they mean the value of the market today is what investors think the dividends will pay out, or are expected to pay out, until the end of time
http://tradestrongmanagement.blogspot.com/
ME2. I have on my biggest position in CYRX, to date.
It' very important that CYRX holds $1.25 and then closes above $1.56 within a relatively short period of time. If that happens I can pretty much guarantee that CYRX will see $2.05.
$1.25 should be the low of the correction and the beginning of the move to $2.05. I have added to my longs down here. Go Cubs, go CYRX.
If only everyone that visited Cryoport's site donated $1.00, they would more than double their revenues.
The Fed released statistics for the closing two week bank reserve window, which reveal that banks increased excess reserves held at the Fed by $70,709, while the total QE Treasury purchases during the period was $54, 234 (reported at par). In, addition, the Fed's asset purchase program has been focused on tech stocks, and tech stocks are the weakest index on the board. That leads me to believe that the recent rally may fueled by hot money seeking a safe haven from emerging country risk. The cheap dollar makes it even more attractive for foreign money, and there is probably domestic funds being repatriated to the U.S.
100% serious. There have been numerous speeches hinting at the cessation of the program, and some guvs that are downright hostile to the program (Hoenig). In fact, there have even been some “tests” of liquidity draining tools, such as ~$3 billion in tri-party reverse repos and a $5 billion Term Deposit Facility auction scheduled for Monday. While the amounts are not material, it appears the markets are being conditioned to accept a break in the purchasing program.
No, the Fed has conducted back-to-back (TOMO) reverse-repos, the latter one essentially mopping up the previous POMO. They have sent a clear signal that QE2 is finished.
The skills that are central to trading involve frequent exposure to subtle patterns in the shift of supply and demand. Over time, these patterns are internalized, so that experienced traders develop a "feel" for markets. This is known as implicit learning. I am able to recognize the pattern, but cannot necessarily verbalize it. And, if you believe that, then I have another baseball tale to tell-ya.
Essentially, it the stock's price action that is telegraphing it's move. Positive news, would of course, help the the bullish case, but it is not necessary. The current rally in the equities market is a testament to that claim. In the face of very negative headline news and less than favorable economic news, the small cap market is on the verge of taking out the 2007 pre-crash highs, followed by the large caps, broader market, and the techs. For whatever reason equities are rallying, it is not because of positive news.
BBF: If I were to tell you why - I'd have to club to you death with my Louisville Slugger, autographed by a then 23 yr old, Harmon "Killer" Killebrew, and presented to a then 8 yr. old, "cubtrader", on a sultry, summer, Sunday afternoon in June, 1961, on the South-side of Chicago.
TIGERTRADER "BUY" RECOMMENDATION - CYRX - price target of $2.05 before Memorial Day!
BBF: I thought you were speaking French, till I realized Manitoba and Ontario borders Minnesota, not Quebec, ay! - accounce: pronounced ( akoon-say)
>>However, if there is an announcement of sustainable revenues,
"Sustainable" implies a pattern of growth over a period of time. You first need to see revenue growth, then you need to see QOQ revenue growth, but what you really need to see is YOY growth, before you can really entertain the idea of sustainability.
Unless the most recent quarter, and quarter to date numbers are "headline" numbers, you won't see institutional participation.
The rally in the equity markets off the August lows was the direct result of the Fed's large scale asset purchase program. The buying was initially concentrated in high beta tech stocks, but the current extension of this rally is seeing leadership from the small cap sector. However, I don't believe this buying has been the result of the Fed's attempts to ramp up assets.
Foreign capital may be flowing into the small caps and the current headline risk in the Middle East, North Africa, Japan, and Europe may be the reason. Money could be moving out of the emerging markets and back into the U.S. The cheap dollar makes investments in the U.S. even more attractive, and increasing growth of dollar-denominated assets means an increasing growth of the supply of U.S. dollars, thus depressing the dollar's value even more.
What is surprising however, is when foreign money comes into the U.S. markets, it generally flows first to large-cap stocks and not to small caps. The market may be favoring stocks that aren't perceived to be exposed to European, Japanese, and MENA risk. Small companies are generally less tied to the global economy than are big U.S.-based conglomerates, and are less risky in that sense.
Combine this "flight-to-quality" with the value that a cheap dollar affords the foreign investor, and you may have the reason why the market is rallying, and small caps are leading the way.
The implications for Cryoport are both good and bad. CYRX is a small cap stock and capital is flowing into that sector. However, CYRX may be perceived as being vulnerable to both supply side and demand side risks because so much of their business has been targeted at emerging countries.
On the supply side, production and supply chains are being disrupted by the horrific events in Japan and the high and volatile price of oil. On the demand side, consumption is declining in emerging economies due to inflation and government policies.
For now, everyone who wants to own CYRX, is long the stock, and the stock's valuation has already seen a substantial increase since the December 2009 lows. For the stock to move appreciably higher, new buyers will have to come into the stock. For the stock to move higher and stay higher, those buyers need to be institutional buyers. Institutional buyers, base their decisions on fundamental and technical criteria, and not on emotion. In the absence of revenue growth, and the potential for both demand and supply side risk within their target market, it is highly unlikely that CYRX will see any institutional participation in the near future.
Who says I don't have a position? I am in and out of this stock all the time. It's a nice swing trade, and it's easy to pick off guys like you.
You're curve fitting. No matter what you look at, and no matter what it indicates, you are going to interpret it as being bullish CYRX - because you are long the stock. If it's up... it's bullish, if it's down... it's bullish, if it's in the middle... it's bullish.
>>With an RSI between 50-70 for some time now it shows there still is strong interest in this stock on the buying side. smile<<
Meaningless... and factually incorrect.
There isn't an indicator that I know of, that can be used as stand alone tool. The RSI like any other indicator, is best used as complement to other indicators and technical analysis. In any event, the RSI does not indicate interest in a stock. In the case of a standard RSI with a 14 period default setting, it is the average of 14 days higher-closes divided by the 14 day average of lower closes. So, it is essentially a momentum indicator that compares the markets gains over the last 14 sessions to the markets losses over those last 14 sessions, and is best used to determine if the market is overbought or oversold. If you are looking at a daily chart, with the default RSI, you are only looking at the last 3 weeks action.It does not indicate anything beyond that time period.
If you were to look at the RSI on a weekly chart, you would see that it is 40 and falling, indicating waning momentum and if you were to look at RSI on a monthly, you would see that it is approaching overbought territory.
>>Keep in mind what Larry said on the conf call about profitability and having to wait until EOY. So we have some time to wait still.<<
Even more meaningless... and most likely just as factually incorrect.