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How can I put this? I resent the fact that you say I post just to hear myself talk. I thought this board was here to have conversations. Just because I have my own opinions and am new at trading, I should not post? Fine. I admitted my faults before, but I'm tired of this. There is too much animosity for me, too many people don't want me to post, and it's not fun posting anymore. I'm gone.
What quote sites are you using? Bigcharts.com accepts NDX and Stockcharts.com accepts $NDX or NDX. I don't know if that helps, because I wasn't sure if that was your quesion.
Question--If the rally continues, since COMP and NDX are above the 100-day SMA, on the daily chart, unlike the DJIA and the SPX, does that mean that they would lead the rally?
Sorry, I meant NOT priced in. EOM.
I made an error. Here's a better answer:
I meant to say that a positive judgement is one that is NOT priced in. Sorry about that. Therefore a positive judgement could move the stock in a positive way. A positive judgement would be determined, not by me, but by the shareholders. We will have to see what happens.
A rate cut will not necessarily spur a rally, but along with a positive judgement for Microsoft, it could definitely keep this rally going enough to break resistance levels. As each resistance level gets broken and TA continues to improve, the rally keeps gaining momentum. It will be fueled by short-covering and those who think they're getting left behind or think that the market has bottomed.
"U.S. stocks closed out their best month in more than 15 years", so the markets could continue this momentum. Again, we shall see.
I think that a positive Microsoft ruling would be one that is already priced in and causes the stock price to go up instead of down. Combine that with a rate cut, in the same week, and we could break through a lot of resistance levels. That would keep this rally going. Then there are the elections. I think most people think that someone is propping this market up until after elections. I think that this market will gain momentum after the resistance levels get broken and the rally goes past the elections. I wouldn't be suprised if the market has bottomed and this rally keeps going. I think it will be fueled by people trying to cover their shorts and the people on the sidelines that don't want to miss the breakout. We shall see.
Doesn't matter. The ruling comes out tomorrow night.
Positive MSFT ruling and Fed rate cut would keep this rally going strong, IMO.
This was the best October ever, for the market. November is usually the best month to be in the market, so I say let's keep the rally going.
4:52PM Court to release Microsoft opinions Friday
by William L. Watts
U.S. District Court Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly will release her rulings on the Microsoft antitrust case on Friday around 4:30 p.m. ET, the court announced. Kollar-Kotelly is set to rule on whether the proposed federal settlement between Microsoft and the government ending the long-running antitrust case is in the public interest. Separately, the judge will rule on a call by nine states to impose tougher penalties on the software giant. The nine states argued that the proposed settlement left loopholes that would allow Microsoft to continue using its dominant Windows operating system to squelch potential competition.
I must be starting to think like you. If only I had the deep pockets to go along with that. LOL.
Zeev, what are your thoughts on NVDA? I think it may have got it's mojo back.
Zeev,Amgen defended by Solly. Maybe you can get your .60 back.
It's bouncing from 45.45. Just a thought.
12:48PM
Salomon Smith Barney is reiterating its Outperform rating on stock following comments from UBS suggesting that reimbursement rates for Aranesp might be a concern. According to Solly, the rates apply only to the Medicare hospital outpatient setting, which represents 10-12% of the patient population. Firm sees little impact and is maintaining its Aranesp estimates.
DJIA/SPX/COMP/NDX/SOX MACD crossing over on 5-min charts.
Augie, I just realized that your chart updates itself. That explains the same high, low, and close. I still hope we close inside the wedge, though. I hope we close above 1350. Today's Nasdaq high is the highest it's been since August 27th.
I am job hunting. I don't flame people. I've actually been doing quite well, in the market, lately. I also use stop limit orders, now. I'm not too worried about finding a job. I utilize temp agencies and the internet. If I don't find one in the next few weeks, I'll lower my salary request until I do get one. Thanks for your concern, though.
Unemployment reports might keep getting better, since the 13-week extensions are running out. Mine just ended last week. I think that these unemployment reports could help lift the stock market, which could help give a boost to consumer confidence and sentiment numbers. JMHO.
COMP, NDX, SPX, DJIA, SOX above 100-day SMA/EMA on hourly charts. Nasdaq and NDX above it on the daily.
Wow, Augie, your chart did not change, since 11:35 A.M. It still has the same practically the same low, high, and close. That's a pretty neat trick. I would love to see the Nasdaq close inside the wedge tomorrow.
Chip sector tracker attempts highest close in 7 weeks .
1:24PM
by Tomi Kilgore
The Merrill Lynch Semiconductor Holdrs (SMH) is running up $1.24, or 5.4 percent, to $24.17 with all 20 of its components seeing green. The sector tracking stock hasn't closed above the $24 mark since Sept. 11, 2002. Intel (INTC), the SMH's most-heavily weighted component, is tacking on 4.3 percent to $17.11. The stock reached a high of $17.38 earlier in the session, a level not seen since Aug. 29. Among other SMH heavyweights, Applied Materials (AMAT) is rallying 6.8 percent to $15.33, Texas Instruments (TXN) is tallying a 5.3 percent gain to $15.85 and Analog Devices (ADI) is advancing 7.7 percent to $27.57.
Goldman now calls for 50bps rate cut next week
1:21PM
by Julie Rannazzisi
Economists at Goldman Sachs now predict the Fed will cut short-term rates by 50 basis points at the Nov. 6 FOMC meeting -- unless Friday's jobs and manufacturing data turns out to be significantly stronger. Goldman thinks the burden of proof has shifted to a situation where the economic numbers must be unexpectedly robust to prevent a rate cut rather than incredibly weak to cause one. The brokerage said the shift in expectations stemmed from the weak data of the past few days and reports that Fed officials are increasingly leaning towards an ease.
Nasdaq up volume bests down volume 8-to-1
($COMPQ)
by Tomi Kilgore
While advancers on the Nasdaq exchange are enjoying a healthy lead over decliners, volume data is even more impressive. Stocks seeing green are outnumbering those seeing red by a 1,832 to 1,128 margin, but the volume of stocks gaining ground -- 707 million shares -- is nearly 8 times down volume of 89.6 million shares. The Nasdaq's ten-most active issues are all seeing gains, led by Cisco Systems (CSCO), which is up 3.7 percent; Intel (INTC), which is tacking on 4.1 percent; and Sun Microsystems (SUNW), which is gaining 2.6 percent. The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) is rallying 28 points, or 2.2 percent, to 1,329.
I agree. I think BRCD breaks out here. I think it is headed for 8.50 or 9.00. It has a definite upward channel that was created with yesterday's low.
Augie, what if we close back inside the wedge or above it?
CNBC just reiterated it and showed a huge spike in INTC, IBM, etc.
BRCD MACD crossing over on 5-min chart. I'm looking for a short-squeeze, since it's the only stock, on my streamer, that is red. Just the opposite of yesterday, before the end-of-day rally.
Looks like BSTE got that short squeeze. Congrats if you were long.
Thanks Tarado96, I'm expecting higher highs. What's that candlestick called that BRCD made today, on the daily chart?
BRCD just went green. Now at new HOD.
10:26AM Confidence comparison to 1991 : After the 1990/91 recession, confidence quickly jumped only to recede again late in 1991 as consumers grew frustrated with the slow pace of recovery. That experience has two important lessons for the current confidence decline. First, the magnitude of the 1991 decline was actually much greater - confidence plunged 42% from early 1991 to early 1992, while it has "only" fallen 28% from its 2002 peak. Second and most important, consumer spending not only didn't decline in 1992 following this plunge, it actually accelerated to a strong 4.3% year/year pace by the end of 1992. The 1991/92 experience offers no guarantees, but the similarities to 2002 are notable.
10:55AM More consumer theorizing : Two more thoughts on the October confidence plunge: first, the October stock rally began on Oct 10, more than half-way through the survey period which ends on the 18th, so the rally probably didn't help the Oct numbers. Second, the sniper shootings probably hurt this reading as well. That may sound like a stretch, but it's supported by the regional breakdown of the numbers, with the Middle Atlantic region seeing by far the biggest plunge in confidence: -24% vs the avg regional reading of -13%. To the extent these theories are correct, they would support a forecast of a healthy confidence rebound next month.
Merrill: Confidence data increases odds of Fed ease
by Julie Rannazzisi
10:55 A.M.
"We believe the decline [in confidence] is being driven by deterioration in the labor market. We believe [the news] increases the odds of the Fed easing monetary policy next week," said Bruce Steinberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch.
In BRCD at 6.40. EOM.
Stearns raises MU estimates/UMC strong Q4 expected
8:31AM United Micro expected to announce strong Q4 outlook - Digitimes (UMC) 4.35: Digitimes.com reports that UMC is expected to announce a strong Q4 outlook on rising orders from Taiwanese IC design houses, according to analysts; these analysts say Taiwanese IC design houses are vigorously replenishing lower-than-expected inventory this qtr, a move not seen among int'l integrated device manufacturers, the major customer base of rival TSM.
7:36AM Micron estimates raised, but strength could be fleeting - Bear Stearns (MU) 16.85: Bear Stearns raises ests due to higher DRAM prices, saying checks indicate that DDR supply remains constrained despite relatively modest growth in PC demand; however, firm recommends that investors consider taking some profits, as the stock is now trading well above cyclical low valuation and the current price strength for DDR DRAM could prove to be fleeting; raises 2003 est to ($1.00) from ($1.22) and 2004 to $1.30 from $1.13 (former is below and latter is above consensus).
Nasdaq closed above Sept 11 close and the HOD is LOD for Aug 27. I don't know if that is significant. I'll leave that to the more seasoned TA gurus. I do think that it's possible to run up the Nasdaq some more. For instance, if they run it up tomorrow and we have a big short covering rally it will not only break through strong resistance, but it may catch the attention of J6P. Wallstreet needs to convince J6P to switch from bonds and money market accounts to the stock market. To do that there has to be no doubt that this rally is serious. JMHO.
I know. Actually, I'm going back to one of the temp agencies tomorrow to discuss job opportunities. I tested there last week and my scores were quite proficient, so I'm hoping to hear some good news. Once I get a job, I'm only going to swing trade. I am curious why you made the comment, though.
Zeev, just got back. I should have waited for BRCD. Live and learn. I see you have an OB on it. Does that mean that you got back out or is that a second helping? I know they are at that conference tomorrow. Maybe they will say something positive. I think tomorrow's open will decide wether it stays in an uptrend. I am using the 10-day 15 minute chart to see this uptrend. I'm connecting today's low to the 10/16 low. What I would like to know is why did they run it back up, in pre-market, this morning? It was at 7.15. I think that they wanted it to trade down along with the market, today. I would like to see it go up tomorrow. I know how quickly the market can change it's mind about a stock.
BRCD not broken yet IMO. I was a little early on this one, but I think it holds today's low and starts to go up it will still be in the upward channel. Then I will just focus on the .75 discount that I got on it. I have my stop loss in, just in case.
Edit:No, I see an upward channel, still. Check out 1 month chart using candlesticks. I think I may have been about .10 cents early, though. If I'm wrong this thing is going down under 7.00.
Bought BRCD at 7.27. EOM.
No, just trying to be funny.
Zeev...grasshopper sends many thanks for your insight.
Translation: I am grasshopper (i.e. remember Kung Fu movie) hehe.