Comment on Gold's COT Report...
I write a regular report on the weekly COT report on gold futures trading. Here's today's if anyone is interested:
HEDGE FUNDS PARE THEIR GOLD LONGS, but Gold falls only 5%
As expected, the Hedge funds holding "stale longs" have decided to cutback their Gold futures contracts. Over the past few weeks,we have seen a dramatic decline in Gold longs held by the "LargeSpeculative" accounts (mainly Hedge Funds) as reported in the Commitment Of Traders (COT) Reports.
The value of their net Long position has dropped more than 50% from nearly $1.5 billion in mid-June to just over $700 million this week. Some 23,000 contracts have been sold, doing little damage to the Gold price, which has fallen just $15 (about 5%) from its high.
Who has been so accommodating to buy all those contracts?
Part of the answer is the "Commercials" (mining houses, and banks acting for them and on their own accounts). They have snapped up
some 20,000 contracts, reducing their net Short position in the Futures market to some 6.2 million ounces, worth about $1.9 billion. Of course, their positions in the OTC market are bigger. Mining houses alone are short over 90 million ounces of gold, as a price hedge against their future production.
On the surface, this is bullish for the POG, because if the Hedge Funds decide to "reload" their longs, perhaps because of a renewed run on the dollar, then the gold price should move higher. I believe we could see this reload start in August or September, after the normal summer lull. One negative factor for the bulls, is the still large positions of the Small Speculators, who often get the price moves wrong. They are holding about 39,098 contracts Net Long, and some of these may get dumped, if gold remains weak. This seems especially likely if the weak stock market bottoms and turns higher. Thus, a summer rally in stocks could trigger a summer selloff in Gold.
EnergyI- 12 July 2002
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