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E/U retraced perfectly 50% and is now on its second assault of 1.2869.
The U.S. trade balance gave a bit of weakness to the dollar. But risk aversion is starting to take hold again. Key support coming up at 1.2914.
Almost perfect retracement on E/U to 32% resistance.
All I can say about today and the markets in general is WOW. It's like one day’s rally becomes the next day's collapse. We are nowhere near the point where carry trades will become even remotely attractive. It will be interesting to see just how far the Euro will go in the Asian session and whether it can hold support again at the 1.28 levels and beyond at 1.27.
What a great trading day though.
Told you today would be interesting. Sounds like everyone's making $$. Just what I like to see.
On the sidelines here waiting for market to find a direction. Timmy did a good job.
Oh man...that's ideal. I'd love to trade full time. Although I also really like my job too. So it's not do or die...mainly just a hobby.
Shoot...I'm just (i) glad I have a job and (ii) a job where I can trade under the radar and work at the same time.
Today should be a fun day for the safe haven currencies. What happens in the US will fuel the market. Too bad I have to bill some hours and can't sit and trade all day.
Yep. Private sector is the word. That E/U long aint looking so bad now ;).
All safe haven pairs are in a flux. Tomorrow should offer some real fireworks. Everyone is waiting to see what happens w/ the stimulus and what Geitner (sp?) says. We already saw an almost 100 pip drop on the leak that we're not setting up a toxic bank. I think if everything goes peachy tomorrow we'll see another upside run. I'm staying out of everything during the London session unless something really peaks my interest.
Nice, good confirming indicator.
Eur is pounding that 1.2810 support.
Not sure what broker you use. But with Oanda you can simply move the cursor to where you want to place the limit order and set it that way. But yeah, you can do it as you say and it shouldn't trigger until it hits that price. Make sure you have a proper stop in place though if you aren't there to babysit the trade. 300 pips is a heck of a swing in one session, though if any pair can do it's the pound/yen.
Looks like I found my answer. FX Street is reporting that the Euro's current free-fall is due from a leak that the Treasury is foregoing the "Bad Bank" approach. Not sure I buy it...but interesting nonetheless.
Check out the article...
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/fx-levels-for-today/2009-02-10.html
limit
Not to mention that the e/u is at critical support. I made enough on the ride down. I'll wait and see...
The stimulus should pass. If everything goes as the test vote did then we should see some nice risk appetite return. But the major market mover tomorrow will be from Mr. Timmy the Treasurer and his grand plan to save the banks.
Euro's acting like the stimulus won't pass yet it already survived a test vote--Odd. My scalp short is turning into a beauty but I can't figure out why in the heck the Euro is completely unwinding.
You can fib pretty much everything and you'd be surprised how often the market respects the levels. It's truly quite amazing (By the way the Eur/Usd run this morning has been practically invalidated as it could not hold a 62% level).
It doesn't really matter what time frame you set your fib on as long as you have the proper swing high and lows targeted. I like to set my fibs on 15 minutes and then go to 5 and 1 to see how price acts at the retracement levels.
Yeah looks like it's trying to do a proper retrace after the first failed attempt. It couldn't hold at 32%, let's see if it can hold at 50%.
Market looks to be consolidating and priming itself for the next run. The ability to sustain these levels for Eur/Usd and Aus/Usd is a very bullish sign. You never know though. It is a bit disconcerting that both pairs struggled to make higher highs.
I'm enjoying the ride for now. But can't stop thinking that this is setting up for a massive short in the 1.32/1.33 range. Once the GDPs start flowing out Thursday and Friday, we could see the return of serious risk aversion.
Edit -- both Eur/Usd and Aus/Usd struggling to make higher highs here...
You know...I was thinking it would retrace that low. It is the 62EMA and the 32% fib from the entire rise up. But you gotta take what the price action tells you and what we are seeing right now is a pretty strong run.
On the other hand. The AUS/USD is acting more technically. Retraced almost perfectly to the 50% fib and is now going for a higher high.
Here's the retracement we need for a buy in. Look for confirmation to buy though.
Yep, Euro looking strong this morning. Seeing the Geithner speech being postponed until tomorrow we could probably see a rally until then. After breaking through this last bit of resistance at 1.3070, it is primed to touch mid-30s.
However, there hasn't been much of a retracement yet and is looking pretty overbought right now.
The euro/yen cross is at a REALLY critical point. Its trying to break through the seriously strong downtrend line in addition to a previous area of resistance. If it breaks through we could see a nice run.
Eur/Usd looks like it might want to touch the 1.30s during the Asian session. Gotta break last weeks high of 1.2990. Probably see it get pushed down during London though.
Yeah, for sure. Also, thinking small picture, this week is a very technical week, which bodes well for the eur/usd (assuming the stimulus passes and no one says anything stupid in their speeches). We don't get any fundamental push by way of Euro news until Thursday or Friday.
I'm with simple on this. What we've been seeing lately with the dollar is truly unique. Day after day we get terrible economic news that should negatively impact the dollar. But the flight to safe currencies as the result of risk aversion is counteracting any negative affect from the bad news. It's really just a battle with risk aversion.
I think with the stimilus about to pass we will see some risk appetite creeping back again and maybe break through the 1.30 barrier in the Eur/Usd pair.
It's not a matter of will the dollar fall, but when...
Yep. Seen it all before. Nothing new here except increased interest.
Been in this thing since Sept. 08 and this is the most buzz I've seen on this board. I'm cautiously optimistic. I still think the float is low enough to get this thing moving quickly. We'll see.
Yup...got stopped out. Not too bad a loss though. It was worth it. That's why I dont like CAD so much because I can't keep track of oil that well.
Took a long too. Showed some signs of a bounce. With a stop loss placed just below support it's a pretty good risk v. reward trade. We'll see if it's fruitful.
Yeah I'm trying to read the tea leaves on the 1 min for any signs of a bounce and maybe in for a couple pips. Waiting for the trade to come to papa.
There goes the bounce and the corresponding bounce in currency pairs. Been waiting for this all day. Lets see if it's sustainable.
USD/CAD looks promising. I see some major support at the EMA 195 on the 30 min. It's tried to break through the tunnel twice and failed. Could be ripe for a bounce or a nasty fall. Keeping it monitored.
Yeah, this morning was atrocious. I'm gonna play the stock market bounce off 8000 w/ the EUR and USD pairs. Should see a small lift maybe to the 1 hour tunnels.
The A/U and other pairs are practically untradeable today...good day to stay away.
Simple,
Nice call on the short at EMA 144, it's really coming down now and is in the 1 min tunnel.
Man, what a finish...next up...the Aussie and Japan sessions. You guy's thinking about shorting at the 1 hour? I'm gonna wait and see.
Lol, that's funny. I wonder if the gains we've seen are merely retracement or the start of a rally.