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I remember that GRPN call EX. It's a damn shame, cause it's down over $10/share from then. I actually like GRPN long at 2.80 and think it will break out here pretty soon.
Just read a few nights ago that Major Drilling has agreed to purchase all of Landdrill's assets for (probably) pennies on the dollar. Sale will be closed by 11/20 and who knows what that means for shareholders.
Ron Goguen....you really disappointed me here.
Capitulation? 3 million shares today and its holding $0.50.
Tax loss sellers are gonna be sorry....
I think they will make it too...
Trading has been especially weird of late, and it's been my general experience that stocks don't get manipulated unless a big move is coming one way or the other.
I do still wonder what's going on with their NYSE status though. I was under the impression that they only had until the end of the month to get back over $1. Hope they get another extension.
Hey EX,
I lost my ass on LDI and am still nursing my wounds here. CEO, who I thought was a decent guy, seems hell bent on railroading shareholders and taking this private.
I'm pretty much out of the market until more funds arrive in a few months. I'm debating about whether or not I should forget about stocks and start trading futures.
Take a look at USU though. Uranium enrichment with a DOE backstop. Very weird trading like somebody has been manipulating it for a while now, and it's been my general experience that they don't waste their time doing that unless the stock is going somewhere. No BK and I'm pretty sure they aren't going to get delisted.
Never short a NYSE under $1 cause they always come back hard.
Just buy it and check back in 3-5 years and you will have yourself a $10 stock...
That's all I got at the moment.
Take care of yourself out there,
Disco
Here's what the insiders have been up to:
http://canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=LDI+|+Landdrill+International
Was basically forced into doubling down yesterday. Shot in the dark at this point...
Bye bye or buy buy?
Very upsetting. It seems obvious to me that they have known about this for weeks and are now using it as an excuse to delay what are probably some dismal 2Q results. They didn't even bother to put it up on that snazzy new website of theirs yet:
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1028071/landdrill-announces-demand-for-payment-from-secured-creditors-and-delay-in-filing-financial-statements
The way it reads, it sounds like Sprott set off a run on the company. $16 milly just came due all at once, and I doubt there are any rabbits in the hat here. Asset grabbing at the expense of equity and it all seems very hostile. Anybody that can make this payment will pretty much own LDI free and clear and walk away into the sunset.
Story of my life. Always wanting my goods but never paying me for them. The world hasn't been a very disco place lately...
Hopefully the new website is an indication that they might try to promote this in the near future. Either way, they should be reporting in the next two weeks.
Is it bad that they are no longer hiring in Mexico?
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Landdrill-International-M%C3%A9xico-SA-De-CV/186172321415648
Or that they never announced anything regarding the noncompliance with their loan covenants?
Time will tell. It's either going back to 15 or its down to 1.
I've been holding for a while now. This is my super-long-term, sock-it-away-and-don't-bother-with-it play. Total patience. Been averaging down and am now in with a goodly chunk at an average of 14 cents. Just waiting and seeing for the time being.
If I'm not mistaken, they will report sometime in August. If it's a dud, then there is a very real danger that all of their loans will get called in. However, if EBITDA comes back then all of the short-term debt on the balance sheet should go long-term and it won't look like they are going bankrupt.
I watched insiders buy up shares at prices ranging from 28 cents all the way down to 14. The revs are there; they just need to get their margins back up to where they were and this company will be fine.
7 cents for this CEO and these assets...are you kidding me? Not many out there like it in my opinion. It should be interesting to watch it all play out over the next few months.
Drill counts and growing pains
From their most recent filing:
CANADA – During the first quarter of 2012, the Canadian Branch’s revenues were $7.3 million, a decrease of $2.6 million (26%) over 2011s comparable quarter’s amount of $9.9 million. The decrease was mostly the result of a decrease in the average revenue per drill - from for the first quarter of 2011’s $251,000 to $156,000 for the first quarter of 2012. This significant decrease to the billing rate was the direct result of the significant drop in meters drilled in the field, as the Branch continued to experience the negative effects of driller turnover and insufficient field supervision.
If the Branch had obtained the 2011 billing rate at the current period’s rig deployment level – then revenues would have been approximately $11.8 million a significant increase over the actual revenue of $7.3 million. Overall the Canadian Branch’s revenue for the first quarter of 2012 was 51% of the consolidated revenues, compared to 71% in the first quarter of 2011. This decrease was due to the combined effect of the current period’s poor revenue per drill rate, combined with the effect significant growth to revenues in Mexico. In January, the Canadian Branch retired one drill (to be sold during 2012), reducing its active drill fleet from 24 to 23 rigs.
During April, the Mexico Branch sent one drill rig to Canada for repairs. Once the repairs are completed this rig will remain with the Canadian Branch. During the April - May period, the Branch averaged 16 drills turning on eight contracts, with average revenue per drill increasing to $160,000. While an improvement from the first quarter, this is still below historical levels and so the Company has initiated several staffing and other operational changes with the objective of increasing field productivity.
The Company expects to improve production over the Summer and Fall and by the end of 2012 management expects the Branch will be achieving production and billing rates that are equivalent to levels experienced in prior periods.
MEXICO - Drilling operations for the Mexico Branch, which includes revenues for activities in both Mexico and Nicaragua, generated revenue of $6.1 million during the first quarter, an increase of $3.2 million (112%) from the prior year’s comparable quarter revenue of $2.9 million. This significant increase was primarily the result of the increased capacity from the March 31, 2011 acquisition of the HD Drilling / Inflight drilling business. Overall the Mexican Branch’s revenues were 42% of the global revenues, an increase from 2011’s comparable ratio of 21%. During January, the Mexico Branch’s drill fleet was reduced from 22 to 19 as a result retiring 3 rigs. Two of the rigs will remain in Mexico and are planned to be sold during 2012, while the third rig was sent to Canada for repairs (once repaired the rig would be added to the Canadian Branch’s drill rig fleet).
During the April - May period, the Branch averaged 15 rigs turning on a total of ten contracts.
The Company expects to operate at similar activity levels for the June to July period.
MONGOLIA – During the first quarter of 2012 the Mongolian Branch’s revenues were $1.0 million, a decrease of $0.2 million (19%) over 2011’s first quarter revenue of $1.2 million. This Branch had two extra rigs available, however due to lower utilization rate and average revenue per drill amounts the Branch generated less in revenue then as compared to first quarter of 2011. The lower performance was as a direct result of an unusual cold weather period that resulted in frozen water lines and other difficulties that made operations difficult. The Mongolian Branch’s revenues were 7% of the global revenues, consistent with 2011’s comparable quarter. At the beginning of 2012, the Branch retired one of their older rigs (to be sold during 2012) - bringing its active drill fleet down to five rigs.
During April, the Branch averaged three drills turning on one contract. However in late April many mining company permits were put on hold as the country prepared for their parliamentary elections. Most drilling in Mongolia was temporarily shut down pending the completion of the June elections. Full drilling operations are expected to resume during July.
During early May, this Branch received one of the five rigs from the Russian Branch. The remaining four rigs from Russia will also be transported to Mongolia during 2012. Of these four rigs, only one rig is planned to be kept for operations and the other four are to be sold during 2012.
RUSSIA – The Company ceased operations in Russia during November 2011, therefore the Branch did not generate any revenue during the first quarter of 2012. The Russian Branch is currently consolidating its assets and moving them to the Mongolian Branch. The Company moved one drill rig and related inventory during the April – May period and expects to move three more drill rigs and their related inventory during the Spring and Summer. The fifth drill rig and related inventory are in a remote location, under the control of an uncooperative Russian owned mining company. The Russian Branch has commenced legal action against this mining company in an attempt to recover these assets. The accounting value for these assets was $354,000, however on the September 30, 2011 financial statements - the accounting value for these assets were written off.
If Ron blows out next earnings, I am going to make the BEST ibox you've ever seen....
Otherwise, I guess I will get ready to load up under 5 cents...lol.
This can easily be a $100 million company in a few years.
Hey EX!
I thought you didn't like me anymore cause of GRAVY!
LOLOLOL
I have been busy busy busy. Been playing the corn run and am holding a bunch of Sep $8.00 calls on GRU that I picked up dirty cheap a few weeks ago.
I also bought some hail mary's on Ford for 5 cents. If she gets back up around 11 or 12 by Oct I will be one happy camper. Just a hunch, but I have a pretty good feeling about it.
What do you think of silver? I think it will start picking up again soon...
Are you following? Thought I was the only one...
Try Landdrill. Nobody will bother us there...
Drought Stalks the Global Food Supply
Business Week
June 5th, 2012
When rain doesn’t fall in Iowa, it’s not just Des Moines that starts fretting. Food buyers from Addis Ababa to Beijing all are touched by the fate of the corn crop in the U.S., the world’s breadbasket in an era when crop shortages mean riots.
This year they have reason to be concerned. Stockpiles of corn in the U.S. tumbled 48 percent between March and June, the biggest drop since 1996, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last week. And that was before drought hit the Midwest. Chicago last month saw its first 100F June day since 1988, the year parched ground caused $78 billion in crop damage. The percentage of the corn crop with top-quality ratings was 48 percent as of July 1; it was 69 percent a year ago. And with little rain in the forecast, farmers can only hope to preserve what crops they can while watching corn futures rise 33 percent since June 15, to $6.75 a bushel.
This year’s dryness is intensifying just as the plants reach their most sensitive development stage. If ample rain doesn’t fall by mid-July, U.S. farmers may face catastrophe, says Matthew Rosencrans, a National Weather Service meteorologist who specializes in drought.
Food prices actually have fallen in recent months. World nutrition costs in May were 13 percent lower than their April 2011 peak, in part because of a global grain crop that was nearly 7 percent larger than the previous year. U.S. corn acreage is at its highest since 1937, and favorable weather is boosting staple-foods production in the European Union. Ample rice supplies may also lower food-supply risks, while a potential El Niño weather pattern later this year may help northern-hemisphere crops, says Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist with the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization in Rome.
Still, a failed crop in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter of corn and wheat, would raise food costs and stifle the U.S. farm boom that has been built on growing overseas shipments. If prices keep rising, that could mean trouble elsewhere around the globe, where failed crops can mean failed states.
In 2010 a drought that withered Russia’s wheat crop sent consumer prices in North Africa and the Middle East skyward, contributing to unrest that fed the Arab Spring. More than 60 food riots occurred worldwide between 2007 and 2009, when rapidly rising commodity prices wreaked havoc on family budgets, especially in poorer countries, where 70 percent of a household’s income may go to food. An extended U.S. drought would have a “tremendous” impact on world food prices, as a higher cost for one dollar-denominated export crop cascaded into others, Abbassian says. “The world looks to the U.S. as the safest source of supply,” he says. “Everyone watches the U.S. because they can rely on it. Without it, the world would starve.”
The U.S. isn’t the only place with problems. Early-season dryness again threatens to wither Russia’s wheat, and the worst start to India’s monsoon season in three years is endangering crops, raising the specter of a return to the export restrictions in the region that drove prices up sharply five years ago.
Adding to the uncertainty are government policies that have intentionally kept world crop reserves at levels lower than they were traditionally, says David Anderson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University. Unlike the 1980s, when many governments bought up supplies during boom years to store for poor harvests, inventories are being kept intentionally leaner so farmers will be more responsive to market forces. “It’s just-in-time inventory for farming,” he says. The system works fine, adds Anderson, as long as the weather cooperates.
Increasingly, in a global food supply chain where Iowa’s weather affects India’s prices, it seems that lean inventories pose serious risks. Longer term, the solution may lie in developing alternative regional sources of food production to augment supplies when a major grower, be it the U.S., Russia, Brazil, or some other country, goes down.
President Barack Obama, in his first address on global food security last May, announced $3 billion in pledges from companies including Cargill and Syngenta (SYT), for farm development in Africa over the next decade. “Fifty years ago, Africa was an exporter of food,” Obama said. “There is no reason why Africa should not be feeding itself and exporting food again.”
Until then, the world is watching the U.S. Corn Belt. A USDA crop production estimate that considers the drought in its calculations will be released July 11. Implicit in the numbers will be the forecast for famine.
The bottom line: With U.S. stockpiles of corn down 48 percent, concerns are mounting that this year’s crop won’t meet the world’s needs.
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-07-05/drought-stalks-the-global-food-supply
What's your price target on this one? Think it can do $35 by January or is that shooting too high?
Will be adding on any weakness next week. Hoping for more at $43-44. If the dollar co-operates this could see $50 in a flash.
Supposedly, there is rain coming this weekend, but it's probably not going to be much.
Here in Northern IL it's pretty touch and go. Some fields look pretty good but others look terrible. You can really see the difference between the ones that were planted early and the ones that were planted late.
Regardless, I think I better start stocking up on Tostitos!
Regarding RPT:
Still like it and own a good slice. They are cashed up and under decent management. Share structure does suck, but at least it is stable.
What did you see on the L2? By the time I got around to checking they had cleared everything out.
They also have a gas plant down there. I'm guessing that's the reason for the large negative enterprise value--they actually have decent assets.
Emerging markets are dirt cheap right now EX. Thinking about doing something Brazilian and I also like MS when we finally get the Euro resolution.
Also look at GOK. Surprised there isn't more volume on it.
Oh dear lord EX. Red flags everywhere here. Iroquois is in on it! I have seen how they operate before--a lot like YA Global and that whole NEOM affair...
It's hard to say how this will play out because I can't determine what, if any, assets they really own. Considering how low GRAVF's market cap was, 2.5% could still be something--but just to break even from an average of 7 cents would imply that the merged company will have a market cap upwards of $30 million.
Here is their website. You tell me:
http://www.petroriveroil.com/
Google Iroquois Capital and see what you come up with. Also look into Scot Cohen. My guess is this will be yet another share selling scheme, and it probably means a covert R/S for GRAVF common shareholders--with the preferreds and the note holders coming out on top.
I sold and am out for good. I could still see this running up depending on their need to raise the share price, but it's a murky pond to be swimming in.
Looks like we are going to have to find another board to shit around on at some point, because GRAVF is going bye-bye.
Maybe I will start a Landdrill board after I get more shares under 5 cents. :-P
I've been buying a lot of this lately:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LDI.V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p57240036513
Priced at half book and company does about $60 million in rev. Really like the CEO over there too. It should be a winner if they can get their margins up.
Otherwise, I am mostly just hanging out in cash until things get a little bit clearer.
Uptick! Been a while since we seen that...
NOK at $2.30 today. We will see if I was right, though I'm pretty sure S is the better play long term.
Who are the debenture holders? And how are they getting their money back?
I wonder what happens when they are done converting...
If I'm not mistaken they must have a goodly chunk by now.
A little birdie asked it's mom, "Will they buy a good company?" And the mom replied, "No. They will buy a shell stuffed with financing they already participated in."
I've always liked stuffed shells...
Wow. The bid is even starting to move up now. I should probably buy some but I've already rebalanced my pennies.
I think the share price has to move up if they want any shot at financing this.
Mysteries...
Just saw it:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gravis-oil-announces-revocation-cease-174500202.html
Are they setting up for a JV or something? Is that why somebody just bought 1% down here?
Impressed with your SSN the past two days. Is that news finally coming this weekend?
They aren't showing my offer either, and it is unrestricted. Just like the good old days...
Who is buying down here? Interesting to have volume after that no bid last week...
Bid is back! Nice to be up 1800%...LOL.
Also--check out the options on TC. Much better than MUX and you don't have to mess with Argentina. I believe insiders have been buying as well.
Still waiting to catch some NOK. I had this idea that $2.30s would be a good buy.
Maybe we will see some decent tax loss selling at the end of the year when nothing happens. Might be worth it to keep a bid down there in case there are any fills.
Miners have been on fire the past few days. And the UUP is probably going to make a new 52 week high...
I think it's just a set-up for QE3...so what do you think EX? What is the best way to play that? Oil? Coal? Steel? More miners?
I also went ahead and bought some JRCC for a quickie. I've had luck with that one before...
I've given up trying to time the bond collapse. WTF knows? Maybe try again in August? I need to be in TBT and I think the best time is probably if/when Greece exits and TLT puts in its blow-off top.
Was that you today EX? 5000 shares so it is still trading. Think the bid is gone though...
I would be a buyer again below .005
I have been watching NOK since $4 and don't know what to make of it. There is going to be a really good option play on that at some point.
I'm pretty sure I am going to buy some gold and silver mines before this is all over.
Looking really hard at MUX. That is my favorite right now and 2014 leaps look like a really good bargain for all the time you get. Maybe the June $2.50s too for a bounce.
Dollar is still not behaving. Bennie is going to have to do something pretty soon. Goldman says we are getting more QE next month.
Only then will it be time to get short U.S. bonds and paper. You want something that will take you through the end of the year because:
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/5/9/the-emperor-is-naked-david-stockman.html
Note that junk bonds are so bloated they are fair game right now. Yields on corporate debt haven't been so low since 1957 or something like that.
What's up with the name change? I always thought of this as more of a shell...
Just for fun:
http://www.otcqx.com/qx/otcqx/requirements
Also this:
http://www.amex.com/equities/howToLst/Eq_HTL_ListStandards.html
Lower tiers are easy if the float goes up at the same time the O/S comes down.
From the March 20, 2012 PR:
Mark Meller, CEO of SilverSun Technologies, stated, "As a significant shareholder in our Company, I agreed to forgive this debt because I believe that such a step will enhance the value of the holdings of all shareholders, myself included. I am confident in our ability to successfully implement our aggressive growth and acquisition plan. This debt reduction increases the likelihood that we will be able to utilize our stock in the future to make acquisitions. Furthermore, such a move will also make it more likely that we will be able to up-list the Company's stock to another stock exchange sometime in the future, potentially creating greater liquidity for our shareholders while also broadening our base of institutional and retail investors."
I can dream, can't I?
I saw that! I had no idea NG could move THAT fast! If I had only known....
I'm still recovering from the ass kicking that DRYS took--I finally got stopped out of of my options last week. I also made the mistake of playing EXXI's earnings the wrong way right before oil collapsed...so that sucks.
GRPN did make it all the way under $10 before bouncing back to $14 on the earnings. Shorts reloaded up there and will probably get it back down under $10 at some point...
Dollar has been up something like 11 out of 12 days now. It will probably gap up when the market opens in a few hours and then recede. If it does not, then it will be perceived that Ben has lost control and you will see a lot more deleveraging. So I kind of think stocks will find a floor early in the morning tomorrow and rally pretty good over the next few days. It should be a "buy anything" kind of day.
Bonds just will not come down...If there was any sign of major weakness there I would say that we are in SERIOUS trouble. When that bubble pops, it's going to happen overnight and it is going to be a big gap down with a long red candle. You will know it when it happens.
As it stands the TIPs are still on their moonshot (in the face of obviously lower than expected inflation lately) and TLT is near its 52 week high. If they are down tomorrow it is BUY BUY BUY on the SPY SPY SPY.
Here is a list of "bubble" stocks that I have started. Pull up the weekly chart on all of them:
SPG
TIP
WFM
LULU
They are still being propped up in the midst of all of the selling. I'm hoping that their breakdown presages the overall meltdown.
Sorry EX. Been a crazy few weeks and I didn't know you were still about...
As far as I am aware the stock is still listed and tradeable. I have been showing .031 x .04 for weeks now:
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GRAVF/quote
According to that, last trade was 5/11 for like 100 shares. As far as stock weirdness goes, I have seen far worse. But I don't have much skin in this game--just a few thousand shares at this point. At least take consolation in the fact that there ARE assets here...that's more than you can say for a lot of this penny junk. It's been my experience that as long as there are assets, there is always hope. Even if it involves multiple purchases over the years.
I've got a few pennies I'd love your opinion of, but I don't want to distract you.
If you need to take the loss for whatever reason and can't sell, just call your broker and have them to a "worthless securities" trade (you might have to pay extra for this if they are aholes). That will wipe it from your account and it should show up on your statement at the end of the year.
The latest filing looks like more financing to me--probably the same group from last year. I have no clue what they are up to though. Whatever their purposes, they do not seem interested in the stock or the share price one way or the other.
Please let me know how it works out for you.
What about these?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SSN120721C00002500
What is going on with SSN between now and July and where do you expect the share price to end up?
Looks like a good bet to me.
On my watch. Here are two Nat Gas ETFs to think about:
BOIL KOLD
Still waiting for a fill on TIP puts. No luck as yet, but my strikes were all getting volume on Friday.
I'm also watching F to see if there is any way to play earnings this week. Reporting Friday morning I believe...
This is a very good idea EX. I have been following UNG and find myself continually shocked at how it keeps going lower. Lots of eyes on it, so when it finds a floor it will bounce hard.
Just looking at the options, I'm surprised at how expensive some of these $20 calls are. That usually means there is a better way to play this. I will look around and see if I can find anything else that is optionable. I'm sure I can find something that correlates reasonably well with NG...
At any rate, I like October better than January. Check out the open interest on the OCT$22 calls. Those are pretty risky, but a lot of people are taking that action. If you go down to the OCT$20 strike, you shouldn't have any trouble trading in and out of them if/when UNG starts moving up. Also might be a good idea to keep an eye on the MAY$15 calls too, just in case this POS ever does get its bounce.
You can check this site to get an idea of what a "fair" price might be for any option, and it will also tell you the hypothetical value of your options under various time and price scenarios:
http://www.cboe.com/framed/IVolframed.aspx
Click on "Options Calculator" and play around with some of those numbers a bit. It's an indispensable tool!
Volatility on UNG seems a little high right now, so it might be best to wait for some of that to bleed out while the chart stabilizes.
I believe if you go to the "IV Index" at the above link, it will also give you an idea of the historical and implied volatility of any issue. Always remember to buy when volatility is low and sell when it is high. And never make any options trade without at the very least checking this site out first...IMO.
As a side note, look at your GRPN call EX. These are the options we should have bought:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=GRPNQ19124120000&insttype=Option
Fantastic...didn't even bounce on market rebound the past few days!...LOL!
Also, I think I have found a super sneaky way to improve my idea regarding UUP calls, but I will have to save that one for another time as I am still trying to wrap my head around it all.
Start watching TIP.
How much longer? I'm currently bidding for puts on TIP.
Should be a beautiful play if the UUP makes it over $23.
Uglier day than I thought....bummer. Really thought we'd get a bounce. $134 is next support level on SPY.
Our penny's are green at least...LOL
Never pulled the trigger on JNK puts. When I first started watching them the April $39s were 40 cents and about 20 days later JNK is sitting $1.00 lower and the puts can still be had for 45 cents. Time decay is such a bitch...
I ended up buying puts on BBBY for 40 cents last Thurs and I got to sell them for 75 early yesterday morning, so I at least was able to sneak that in.
I don't think we are crashing just yet EX. Futures are up right now, so I'm thinking that the past four days was the "healthy pullback" that is going to finally rope retailers back into the market. If SPY can't hold $137 then we might be in business...
(For the record, that 13,200 call on the DOW ended up being pretty damn close!)
Ford still needs to break out over $13. We (*hopefully*) got DRYS going over $4 yet, and have you noticed how freakin cheap BP is right now? I still say they are going to wait for that Facebook IPO next month before they do anything drastic.
I am also starting to get all hot for that SIRI bandwagon everyone is drooling over right now. If I didn't think the market was going to cool off for a few months going into the election, I would be PILING into the $3 SEP calls right now. Those are excellent lottery tickets...IMO.
Here's a good chart EX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EWJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p29272569518
Notice what happens every time EWJ puts in a candle like it did yesterday. 9 times out of 10 the direction is up, so I went ahead and bought some June $10 calls on that one. I am intrigued by the Japanese economy right now. We will see how it goes...
I never thought about GRPN before--that's a really good idea. I will look into it more later, but if it takes any bounce, it should be a really good short. And definitely let me know when you enter GSX again. I am still watching and have a better "feel" for it now. I definitely think you are on to something there...
And keep watching EPCT (I posted some thoughts on that board to see if I can get any longs to tell me what the deal is). All signs seem to indicate that some kind of pump is imminent on her. If you see it break 26 cents on volume then it is a buy.
Wishing you the best,
Disco