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Only a moron would believe a word in those PRs.
An exclusive distributor? In China? And they are going to sell what? 250,000 boxes a year. In a region with 2 billion people.
Who in their right mind would make such a small time company an exclusive distributor?
And don't even start me with the South American distributor. What was their commitment? Nothing in the PR. Was there commitment at all? Or will they just be buying 10000 boxes from time to time and trying to resell them.
There is nothing in those PRs besides empty promises and wishful thinking.
Fluff PR.
Show me the money.
All I know is they sold 10K units to Bolivia distributor. And maybe will sell some units to Korea distributer when they get the paperwork done and I don't care if they dream of getting that done next week. That might take 2 years for what I know.
And I am supposed to believe that mysterious Bolivia company that I am unable to google is going to buy $6 mln worth of product within a year? Gimme a break. Or show me the money.
Of course there are stores around you.
It is just there is a message at the top saying : We didn't find any results for "genultimate" with the Store you selected. Showing results without the Store Filter.
It also states they will sell this inventory overseas. Whatever they get for it - will be 100% profit.
Who cares?
No one believes their PRs anyway. When we see the product on the shelves - we'll know.
LA flood.
Read another report that indicated 65% of the rice had been harvested before the flood. The rest might be low quality. But I doubt RIBT is using all the bran the mill can produce. The worse case - they will be bringing it from CA as they did in q2.
A bit of good news I read is that no rice mills reported any damage from the flood. Hopefully the RIBT facility is also located on the higher ground and didn't suffer any damage.
I read an article that said 80% of harvest was done before the flood. I assume that rice will mill good. The remaining 20% will still be harvested, but quality might suffer. Still 80% should be enough. So they might lose couple of weeks of operation, but maybe they catch up.
With the current growth they are experience they are better hoop up another mill in CA pronto.
Pluto,
what do you think a big retailer will pay for a box? Can it be $4-5 and then sell it for $9? And what does it cost DECN to make that box?
Thanks.
Where did you get an idea Short is selling his stock at $1.54?
Looks to me the funds that participated in the latest offering are registering their shares for sale in the future. Doesn't mean they are offering the shares at $1.54. This is just the price at the time of the offering.
Maybe they are thinking the stock is going above $2? Would be nice since they will be able to convert the warrants and give the company much needed cash.
Isn't it obvious?
DMRJ is the owner of the company and they are going to claim it. To the current shareholders they are giving away $20 mln for a purchase of the new shiny pie in the sky hover dream to distract shareholder's attention from the fact the EDT business doesn't belong to them anymore.
1q $4
2q.$7
3q $12
4q $18
Do you have any reasons to believe they will be earning $2 mln per quarter a year from now? That would require doubling their revenue.
Happy dreaming.
I was reading a little bit about it. The big unknown right now is the warm water near Alaska that created the ridge which diverted the rains from CA. Noone knows for sure if this ridge will be as strong this winter as before and if the El nino will be strong enough to push it and deliver the rains and snow to nothern CA.
But chances are good for a wet winter and spring.
There are ways to predict the weather based on various factors. They use various computer models but no one know for sure how the things will develop. Last year some models predicted weak el nino but it lost its strength as othet models predicted.
What is different this year is the fact pacific ocean is much warmer than last year and ALL the models now predict the el nino will be here in the fall. The only question is if it will be strong enough to affect the northern CA in a meaningful way since weak el nino might have little effect.
And so far the ocean temperature and other factors suggest it will be a strong el nino. If that is the case - that most likely will be a drought buster, but even a moderate one should bring extra precipitations. That is what we are seeing now and the fall and winter should be much better.
It is usual pattern for El Nino years. Looks like this year the el nino is not going to weaken like last year. Some model even predict a very strong one that should bring above average precipitation in the fall and winter.
They used their own money this time as well. The company is very low on cash and if there is indeed a high demand for their products - the company need every penny right now to source more bran and to process it. The credit line should help, but that half mil extra can result in $1mln more revenues in the next quarter. That is why at this time it is much better for the company that insiders gave their money to the company and not to other investors.
Still escapes me how it is a pay if they paid market price for the shares. Not open market means they bought from the company. Like a mini secondary offerring.
The way I see the filings, they bought the shares at $3.47.
Hardly a perk considering that was a market price at the time.
Am I missing something?
Hawke,
What are you talking about when you say 'Sell off the shares'? Yes, the company sold the shares. Companies that buy back shares usually have cash to do so. Not the case here. Didn't you know that? Gosh.
There is Yahoo board which is more suited for this kind of messages that have no information. Would you be so kind and refrain from littering this board with your feelings about Short almost every day? Thanks.
8th,
I think you got it wrong.
Read the CC transcript.
First, they stated they are comfortable with US revenues. That is $33 mln btw.
The analyst question was about the possibility of them getting more revenues from US operations than predicted earlier. More than $33 mln. To which Short properly responded that there might be upside or there won't be. But the thing is that $33 from US by itself is HUGE. The q1 was $5 mln and q2 will be maybe $6-6.5. If you looked at the 10Q, the inventory levels were some $800K higher than last quarter. I would think they are related to the orders being pushed out. Also he mentioned thier largest customer had the best months in March and April and expecting to do great.
So even if there is no 'upside' , the second half of the 2015 should be HUGE for the US side. That is $20 mln in q3 and q4 with several big contracts already signed.
Also they still expect Irgovel to be Ebidta positive in 2015. Again, with q1 being dismal and q2 still affected by old bran - the 2H should be very good for Irgovel.
Of course the risk of another transportation strike is there but what are the chances? Hope they are learning from their mistakes.
As for the forced sale, read the last years 10Q. Those covenants existed for 2014 and I would assume for 2013 and RIBT failed those metrics, but the forced sale didn't happen. I would think both all the parties related to Irgovel aren't interested in forced sale won't force it. And I think the RIBT has a right to buy the remaining part and if it comes to a forced sale - they will find another partner who will provide them with the capital.
But that is risk , of course.
But selling now, when the company finally operating at breakeven and just got $8 mln to execute new big contracts ?????
I understand the next conference call we will hear same old same old about new bunch of problems they had to overcome and that the future again just two quarters away.
But what if they actually deliver? They spent 2 years upgrading the plants and now everything seem to be in place and working.
I am sticking around.
Was it you selling the warrants at $1.03 in the morning?
As usually, the future is bright and the past is not so much. The great things are always in the next quarter and that has been the case for at least a year. Will we ever see that great future to actually come true?
Anyway, a lot of positives here. Of course if the Brazil doesn’t go on strike again. The silver lining is that their shortcomings with the supply chain both in CA and Brazil happened early in the game when the stock price was depressed. If that happened a year or two from now – the stock could’ve cratered and the customers could’ve been pissed off greatly.
So the q2 won’t be that great since q2 numbers will still be affected by the old bran they had to go through. It still beats me why on earth wouldn’t they just throw that old bran away and start processing the fresh bran. They had an obligation to buy it from the mill, but they didn’t have an obligation to process it. So if they sold it for peanuts or just threw it way they would lose 3 weeks worth of bran. How much would that cost? $0.5 mln? $1 mln? Instead they fed this old bran thru the process with negative margins and lost 1.5 months of good production and maybe $2 mln. Either I am missing something or they are making blunders. I just hope they are learning.
So they are making right steps to stabilize the supply chain. So they are going to lose around $1 mln in q2 and should start generating cash in q3. The credit line is a major game changer. It will allow them to stockpile enough bran to expand sales and get through 2015. And if there are no major mishaps in 2015 they should emerge in 2016 as a profitable outfit with a good redundancy in the supply chain and with a growing revenues of high margin products. The risk park of the equation will go down dramatically since the dilution will be out of the picture since they will be able to get cash from warrants being executed in 2016 when the stock price in double digits. So we just have to wait it out in 2015 hoping they operate close to full capacity while getting in place additional bran suppliers.
With oil prices recovering nicely, one would assume situation in Brazil should get better. Maybe the worst is indeed is behind and we should start trending up from here.
Q1 Irgovel dismal numbers is an old news. They are relevant only as an indication of what q2 is going to be. If Short say that Irgovel has been running close to full capacity - that should matter. Same as growing US revenues.
Re: cosmetics
If not Ribt then who else? They promised cosmetic launch by end of q2 so they seem to be ahead of schedule. Can it be they are indeed out of the woods?
It is been 2 months since the strike ended in Brazil so if there were no mishaps since - the company should be cash flow positive right now or at least neutral. Big IF.
Why the credit line hasn't been finalized yet? Or was it? Should that require a Sec filing? Maybe it was since the company was supposed to run out of money by now. We will see tomorrow.
I still don't get what are the benefis of having a supplier 500 km away vs 50 km away. Maybe the transportation costs are negligeable and maybe other costs are lower. In any case, that is a good move that should alleviate bran supply issues.
Now they need to sign similar deal in CA and get the credit line finalized.
I wouldn't bet on q1 being great. The management provided guidance during the CC : revenues to be better than q1 of 2013 or 2014. Which means greater than $8.5 mln. If they thought they can beat q4 - they would've said so. But they didn't.
Irgovel was down in January and lost another 4 weeks of normal production due to the transportation strike. Coupled with weak real - Brazil revenue would be comparable with previous years.
I expect q1 revenues to be between 9 and 10 mln. Which is of course much better than $7.6 but market usually doesn't care about yoy comparisons. What it cares is the future and especially profitable future.
Hopefully q2 will be much better if there are no issues and q3 and q4 will be profitable if they don't screw up.
Are you saying you didn't know that? The selling was going since February and there even was a SEC filing about it in March.
Yes, the weak real will reduce the Irgovel earnings. But if there are earnings at Irgovel - I would be happy even if they are reduced. Opposing it being a black hole sucking millions after millions every quarter. That is probalby the major reason holding the stock down.
Everyone knows Brazil is not the best place to do business but it is too late now - they got stuck there. I just hope Irgovel becomes break even and they grow US side of the business much rapidly so that in a couple of years Irgovel becomes a much smaller part of the company. Who knows, maybe they manage to make it profitable and growing, but short term they need to make it at least breakeven. Which requires at least running it at the projected rate most of the time.
As for the stock action, there is someone who likes to move the stock. The run up before the earnings was very suspect on very light volume. As for th drop - who knows. It doesn't take much to move this stock. A couple of impatient investors disappointed with something and reducing their position could easily cause the drop. Or maybe someone is trying to shake weak hands. I know I cannot figure it out so I am not even trying. Let someone play the games. In the end it is all about how company executes.
I got a different translation: the demand is greater than they can produce and they simply don't have enough cash to buy extra inventory. That is why the credit line will have immediate impact. Since it probably takes at least 2 months from getting the raw bran to getting paid for a H@N product - the impact of extra financing should show in q3 numbers.
It is even possible they don't need any promotion right now and later until they catch up on all the orders they have.
Sticking to a projection but throwing in a bunch of conditions - is the definition of non sticking. Still even if they miss the $67 mln projections by couple of mils because of Brazil currency but show that Irgovel is not losing money - the stock will be much higher than it is today.
Listened to the CC. As always the future is bright and the past is not that much. I was off by a month. I thought the bran situation improved in October, but it improved in November. And it probably takes two months for the inventory to go thru the process (ship to Dillon then ship to Texas then ship to customers).
So I expected them to be able to ship more in December but looks like the ramp up started in January. Hope they show nice US revenues in q1. The bran shortages should be easy to solve. Even with the drought worsening there still will be millions of tons of rice millied and all they have to do is to buy extra bran bran in June-july, process it and store somewhere to supplement any shortages they might experience.
They should actually do this all the time to keep several weeks worth of processed bran as a reserve in case there are disruptions. Getting the credit line finilized is very important and should help them in increasing inventory levels.
Brazil currency - is a non issue in my opinion. Yes, the revenue number will suffer if it goes down and they might not hit their 2015 projections but it is earnings that ultimately matter and not revenues. And in my view, weak real makes Irgovel more profitable. They pay workers in reals so their cost is also goes down. Which means their brazil sales are not affected by weak real, but their international sales become more profitable. Correct me if I am wrong.
So as far as we know they are operating close to full capacity as of middle of March. So q1 numbers won't be spectacular as we hoped, but they are doing all the right moves and might already be profitable as of now.
The results are not what I had expected. The US segement revenues were only $5.5 mln down from $5.9 mln in Q3. Was it a spillover from RB shortages that started in q3 or something else? I expected enough bran to be available starting in October and hoped it would reach H@N in December. Maybe it took longer than I expected to process it. Or maybe they are still not having enough bran. Let's see what they tell us tomorrow about this.
There was an equipment problem in Irgovel this January. The PR about Irgovel being online was issued Jan, 29 and didnt' mention any problems. I just hope that equipment problem didn't happen on Jan, 30th or 31st. Same way as a bag house collapse happened days after they issued 2014 guidance.
Do you know anything at all about the company beside the chart? We all have access to the RIBT chart thank you very much. So if you cannot contribute anything useful to this board you might as well stfu.
Ye,we know: each time the stock goes below 20 SMA means the company goes BK. No need to repeat this nonsense every time the sotck turns south.
We all can see the chart. Do you have anything to contribute about the business? Do you at least know anything about this company beside the stock price and its direction?
I would be very interested to know what earnings they are talking about. Current earnings are negative and there are no estimates AFAIK.
I see now. Yahoo still shows 40% projected growth from years ago.
So they just wrote a script to scan yahoo or such and generate those stupid recommendations.
I am pretty much sure the creditors who got the shares and warrants are controlling the stock. And for the past year they were holding it down. Most likely to get more shares at $4 or so.
Even with the problems the company experienced, the stock could've been at $6-8 if any of the potential of the company was factored in.
Also on several occasions whenever the chart was started to look attractive someone would start painting the tape to drive the stock down.
That is why current trading is very encouraging. The chart never looked better for the past several years.Someone even painted the tape to close higher. Can it be those in control decided it is time for the stock to go up? Would they make such a decision because they believe there are no more secondaries are coming since the company is operating at a profit for the past 2 months? So since there won't be no more shares at $4 to them - there is no point in holding the stock down and it is time to let it rise?
No , they didn't say about another line. That is my quess. I read several times how companies get in trouble when they switch ingredients and customers become hysterical.
And they are talking about traces of a chemical. Which is basically several molecules. But in this lawyer happy society - it is better to be safe. Don't fix what is not broken. If the demand for thier CA based products is growing as they suggest - they should just get more bran to feed Dillon and H@N and try not to screw anything up. Introducing Irgovel rice into the mix might backfire. Just my ihmo.
As the CEO stated - the customers demand US grown rice. To process Irgovel rice at Dillon - they will have to build a separate line because if they switch the bran back and forth - traces of irgovel rice (however small) will end up in CA product and some customers might be unhappy.
I think at this point it is not feasable to send any other rice to Dillon except from CA. They should have no problem getting enough bran this year. The 3rd mill should take care of the shortage of bran in CA and they can stock up on inventory before the slowdown. All they need is extra capacity (check), extra storage facility (shouldn't be a problem) and extra capital (the credit line was supposed to be finalized already).
California rice situation:
'The feeling now is that irrigation water will be even more restricted than last year, and that rice pro-duction will suffer. Last year the crop was down 25% from average. This year the guesses are more in the range of 30%-35%.'
So if the above is the case, the 2015 harvest will be 10% less than 2014. Which is not that bad. Hopefully the company will be prepared. It is a time for that credit line to be finalized.
I've been following a dozen or so small caps and the volume has been dismal for all of them. Don't know what to make of it: either market is going to crash or another leg up is in the working.
Also volume is not always an requirement for a stock to move. Market just doesn't know how to value this stock. As soon as there is some tangible information about the status of the business - the stock will be trading accordingly. If tomorrow everyone decides the fair price is $8 - the stock can move there on very low volume. Simply because not many people will be willing to sell on the way up.
As for the drought , there is a good chance another rainy system is going to arrive by end of next week (on the heels of wed-fri system). It can push the reservoirs to about average level. Which would be a better situation than a year ago even considering the less snow in the mountains.
Everyone is waiting for a confirmation the company turned the corner. The common wisdom is that market anticipates the future and stocks move some 6 months before the news becomes public. Buy the rumor sell the news.
In the recent years, especially with small caps - the above is not working. Very often stocks don't move not only before the good news becomes public, but even after that. I remember a year ago PLUG's CEO was making statements about imminent contracts and the stock went from 60 cents to 80 cents. A week or two later, another PR about imminent huge contracts - and the stock goes nowhere. And I decided that market knows better and there must be something fishy going on and sold. And after the CEO made the statement one more time - the investment community woke up and the stock went from $1 to $12 within several weeks.
Point is - current stock trading might mean nothing. The float is tiny and big boys are not interested in such stocks where it is a pain to buy even 10000 shares. Not worth their time. Others think the fact the stock goes nowhere must mean there won't be any good news coming. Not necessarely. But we'll have to wait and see the numbers.
In q2, 14 they recorded US segment revenues of $6.5 mln and indicated it would've been greater if not for the 3 week the H@N was shut down due to expansion project. So let's assume if not for the shutdown - the revenues would've been $7 mln. And they say the demand is very good. So in q3 they could've easily do $7.5 mln if the had enough bran. They did $6 mln. So they had about $1.5 mln of unfulfilled orders from q3 that were pushed to q4. And if the demand is so great, the q4 revenues (USA only) would've been at least $8 mln if they could produce it, not counting the $1.5 mln from q3. Would be interesting to see how much of catching up they did in December.
In any case, even if they don't grow revenues during 2015 - the US segment as of right now should produce at least $35 mln for 2015. And Brazil should do around $10 mln per quarter to be conservative(1.5 times the previous revenues of $7 mln). Minus whatever shutdowns they might have - let's say $35 mln in 2015. Which puts the total around $70 mln which means the current guidance must be the worst case scenario. The q1 will be almost over when they release 2014 numbers. Will they preannounce q1 or give some solid hints?