I have tried to parse the conference call transcript focusing in on clues to what we would all like to hear regarding the current Tarvacin trials.
1. Tarvacin is safe.
2. Tarvacin is effective.
They did not make these two statements as they seem to be waiting to provide the scientific data in a complete and controlled manner. I did find the following statements which seem to support my assumption that 1 and 2 above are true.
<<<Our clinical trials are progressing well and we have made several significant advancements. >>>
<<<Tarvacin HepC Trial initiated Aug05 is progressing in line with our expectations. >>>
With regard to 'safe' surely there have been no deaths, so far, in the trials. You just couldn't say 'going well' if there were.
It seems almost as good a bet to assume that there have been no unexpected severe reactions. And even likely that there have been no severe versions of what may have been expected reactions at least at low doses. You just couldn't say 'in line with our expectations' otherwise. Everything previously published shows that expectations were that it is very safe.
<<<We are planning to initiate enrollment for 1 or 2 addl. AV indications during 2006, pending positive results from pre-clinical studies. >>>
They appear to be hedging on other antiviral indications only with respect to 'preclinical studies' i.e. does Tarvacin attack the virus. They are not hedging with respect to any sort of final safety data from the current human trials. Seems to me that if there were any bad reactions so far that they would have included something linking the future trials to an acceptable outcome for safety in the HCV trial.
As for effective.
<<<1) Dr. Arnold Monto, a leading influenza expert. Dr. Monto's expertise and contacts with and USA & Int'l organizations working to prepare for an Influenza pandemic will be esp. valuable to help accelerate the assessment of TarvacinAV as a potential agent for deadly Influenza strains, both seasonal and Avian Flu.
2) Dr. Alfred Prince, world-renowned virologist and Hepatitis expert will help to advance our HepC pgm.
3) Dr. Peter Barry, a leader in the study of Cytomengalovirus, will help in evaluating the use of Tarvacin to combat CMV, which could be an attractive AV indication for Tarvacin.>>>
Does any one really think they would be sharing the income from new stock offerings with all these guys if they didn't think Tarvacin was working on viruses in people? And that these people could help push Tarvacin testing into many different indications (which would also be an expensive waste of time it it weren't working to some extent in HCV)?
This is just my speculation, but either Tarvacin is safe, and working to at least some extent in humans, or these guys are WORLD class liars and manipulators who plan to flee the country in a few months. I'm still betting on Tarvacin.
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