Slicing through some resistance. While very early in the trade, the stock has sliced through the 50 EMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. RGSE has not been allowed to survive over $1.50 for the last two months with $1.60 being the major hurdle. I think in order to hold the recent surge, we need to see some decent volume. The first half-hour volume of 105,000 is a good start.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p39043351036&a=427672065&listNum=1

Today is the last day in the short interest reporting cycle to be published in nine days. Interestingly, the last big surge happened on September 15th. Let's see if the bulls can wrestle this one away from the bears. A close over $1.60 should really light up buy side trading desks.

The difference between the two moving averages is weighting. The SMA is the basic (simple) average of adding the prices and dividing by the sample size. Hence, 50 sma is 50 days of closing prices divided by 50.

The exponential moving average EMA is places more weight on the near term price action and less on the data points further away. The divergences between the SMA and EMA are due to the EMA's weighting.

In my decade+ of charting, each stock has its own character technically. Some indicators will be great for one stock but lousy for another. Fibonacci retracement points seem very conistent in support and resistance levels for about anything that is charted i.e. stock, index, commodity etc.

What I find interesting is that traders seem highly keen with RGSE for both the 50 SMA and EMA. This stock has spent two days above the 50 EMA over the last year and more recently has been a brick wall for the stock to bounce down from. The SMA is also being used to add to short positions. RGSE is now above the 50 SMA for a second day, which may bring shorts to pile on to get it back down below it. We should really take note if the stock can close two consecutive days over the 50 EMA.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p39043351036&a=427672065&listNum=1

Nice finish. There was a large (relative to volume today) buy on close order for 74,733 shares for the last trade of the day.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/rgse/time-sales

That surge of buying closed RGSE over the 50 dma.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p72985806805&a=424210029&listNum=1

The stock has not surged through, fallen back below and then closed above the 50 dma for 15 months (June 2014). The fresh shorts will have to push the stock down Monday or else find themselves on their heels fighting a wave of technical buying. My guess is there are a load of buy stops just above $1.60. I'd like to see perhaps a close in the $1.50's followed by a major push through $1.60 to see what kind of volume spike occurs.

Classic breakout and retest. The 50 dma is looming large as the biggest near term resistance. I suspect well fed shorts who have used the 50 to short over the last year are now complacent and may find themselves soon covering. Their best bet is to apply as much pressure as possible to make sure the stock does not close over the 50 dma. Otherwise the stock has a strong possibility of surging on Monday if a close over $1.45 occurs today.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p72985806805&a=424210029&listNum=1

Pavlov's dog came out today. Shorting the crossing of the 50 dma has been very profitable over the last year. I think the short's may have gone one time too many as there isn't much downside potential as there once was. Stay tuned....

Good looking chart. RGSE blew through three levels of resistance on very heavy volume, with no news on the wire. It seemed like after $1.52 was breached from the early morning high, the stock wanted to shoot much higher. A seller showed up for the last three hours of the day seemingly giving the market all it wanted. Profit taking? Shorts defending $1.60? or Stale longs that made a mental note if this stock ever crossed $1.50, they'd sell and take their cash off the table? I don't know but buyers were very determined to keep buying with no apparent catalyst or reason to do so. It looks to me that a trip to $1.70 is just a matter of time. If recent history is any guide, we can get another strong price move higher on heavy volume, follwed by a couple week consolidation.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p72985806805&a=424210029&listNum=1

The absence of speculative euphoria amongst retail investors is defining. It seems to me the I2's of the world sold out and have sworn off the stock for good. I thought the last Q was decent and the $0.60 print absurd; glad I held through the carnage.

I think Real Goods is in play. There's consolidation going on in the solar industry and even at $4, the market cap would be $50 million. As my big Mastiff mix would think, RGSE is a Scooby snack for one of the majors. Why not buy them out before the market gives them a healthy stock multiple? The sudden out of the blue stock and volume surge of a couple weeks ago smells of a group of people who know talks for a buyout are in progress. They accumulate well in advance of the offer so the SEC doesn't come calling. Highly conspiratoral on my part but the rule of law left the market many years ago.

Key Resistance = $1.48

It looks like RGSE has broken to the upside out of a bullish pennant formation. Presently it is fighting the next level of resistance at $1.50 and the 50 dma. Those who confidently shorted at $1.60 should be getting a little nervous. A close over $1.50 on decent volume should put them on notice that the time to cover should have been last week. A close over $1.70 opens up a target of $2, which when it printed $0.60 a few weeks ago seemed like a pipe dream.

Zoomed in 2 Month Chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p72985806805&a=424210029&listNum=1

Key Chart Target = $1.30

The chart hasn't been a friend of the Bears with price volatility down and volume drying up. In a freely traded market, the chart has a nice bullish flag pattern. Tonight we get a look at short interest after that few day surge from a low of $0.60 to $1.60. A high short interest would be quite bullish for the stock.

The key Fibonacci resistance level is $1.29, which has been stout resistance this month. I'd expect short covering to begin with a close over $1.30, preferably a close of $1.32 or higher. That would open up a test of the next tough resistance at $1.50.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p27997707943&a=414684991&listNum=1

Smells of possible buyout. Does everyone realize just 4 1/2 trading days ago, RGSE hit 60 cents? I thought yesterday's price action was a little short covering. Lunchtime EDT I came to my computer expecting RGSE pulling back to around 90 cents to digest the big move yesterday. Instead I see it trading around $1.50 on what looks to me a possible all-time high volume traded in a day for RGSE at the close.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p27997707943&a=414684991&listNum=1

I know penny stocks generally have pump and dump outfits that cause the price we are seeing but that's over on the OTC. It may be possible there is going to be a buyout or merger between RGSE and another solar. What may be happening is that the word went out to get the stock much higher to either make a buyout offer look to be a reasonable premium or to make an acceptable exchange of shares between two solars to merge.

Anyway, just speculation but this price action with no news of essentially doubling in price in two days, smells of something more than pump and dump or a sudden awakening the last Q wasn't as bad as justifying a drop from $2 to $0.60.

Pavlovian Response

I just noticed that over the last year, RGSE, has not lived over the 50 dma long. In fact, if you shorted every crossing or near approach to the 50 dma and then covered a little while later, you'd be a very wealthy inveestor.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11405307411&a=419252091&listNum=1

Perhaps the shorts heard the bell, salivated and then applied fresh short positions as it crossed the 50 dma today hoping history to repeat itself.

Updated chart close over $2.30 key.

Just like clock work we hit and blew through 50 dma resistance at $2.25. The initial excitement fizzled around the noon hour. I believe that 1.8 million shares traded hands by that time. The next 800k shares took the price negative where it remained the rest of the day.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p27997707943&a=414684991&listNum=1

I had anticipated that the 50 dma would be an obstinent resistance and today it showed its power. It looks like shorts waited and pounded the stock down causing longs to puke up some shares. The nice thing is that the push was halted just under $2 instead of going all the way down to $1.75. This actually is healthy because the stock as rallied 75% from $1.35 two weeks ago. There needed to be a flush out period.

With some solar stocks surging at reported earnings releases, it seems to me that there is plenty of speculators anticipating a big rally after earnings is announced. Newly added shorts should have their nerve tested tomorrow as it is likely we surge to $2.30 again in the morning. As with the heavily defended $1.73 level, we need a good close over $2.30 to set up a test of $2.63. There are three trading days before earnings are released and the CC happens. My guess is that the stock will find its way north of $2.50 before news hits the tape.

First Solar beat forcasts and is up 10% after hours.

Updated Chart

We are at the next level of resistance, which I expected to come fairly quickly after $1.80 fell. The selling at $2 seems less vigorous than $1.73. The $1.73 level was hit over three separate trading days and then quickly pushed back down in the same day.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p27997707943&a=414684991&listNum=1

I am wondering if the shares just purchase in the placement have been sold into the market already. It would be very good if all of the warrants have been exercised and sold also. The 10Q should give us insight by the outstanding share count.

Resistance at $2 appears to be quite weak. I'd anticipate that we will see $2.25 tomorrow, which should be stingy resistance as longs will take profits and shorts may want to make a stand there.

Resistance price levels are $2.00, $2.25, $2.63, $3.05 and $3.46.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p27997707943&a=414684991&listNum=1

RGSE first has to close over $1.80 before we can focus on the next level. I expect $2.25 to be a real bugger to get through and a good 10Q with conference call just might to the trick.

Shorts death grip waining? Recently this stock would get whacked right back down but there seems to be determined buying underneath this stock. I'm still looking for that above $1.80 close. Perhaps the shorts are losing a bit of nerve here. I would like to see some retail level buys stops triggered so that shorts have to continue to sell to keep a lid on this thing.

Today I am more encouraged than I've been in quite a while. Perhaps the constant buy pressure is making it much more tenuous to keep a lid on the stock. The primary question is can this steady buying determination close the stock over $1.80? Or, are we just looking at another episode of Whack-A-Mole?

Now for the grind lower. The morning excitement has to be followed through late in the day for us longs to win the battle. How far down the shorts push the price will give us insight as to their determination and fire power. Should they close the stock in the low $1.60's, that will tell us a lot. That will test the nerve of the $1.75+ buyers. They need to stay put an make these shorts sweat.

Let's hope for a strong close over $1.80.

Classic Whack-A-Mole

What a perfect set up for shorts to set the tone for the day. High volume surge in the morning is met with a wall of selling, squashing the momentum and closing the chart gap. Now the early buyers have to hold firm as they see their investment go into the red for a period of time today. If they sell, the shorts just send them thank you notes. If the don't and there is constant firm support during the day, then we have a chance of breaking $1.73.

Just because the price moved through $1.73 means very little technically on the chart. We have to CLOSE over that price point by a few percentage points higher. That is why a close over $1.80 is very important. The intraday gyrations mean very little.

I'd say buyers keep your powder dry until the last half hour of the day, then let 'er rip.

The stock needs to grind higher on solid volume to flush out the agressive shorts defending $1.73. No one should get excited over a few thousand shares traded hands pre or after market. The volume is a tiny fraction of daily volume. I think we need a 2+ million share day to break and hold over the $1.73 price.

My preference is for the stock to grind neutral until the last hour or two of the trading day, followed by a surge in volume and a close over $1.80. That will light up thousands of trading platforms as a strong buy signal, which these shorts don't want to happen. The problem has been the stock pops early, retail investors get all hot and bothered about a breakout, then the stock begins a slow grind lower for the remainder of the day. I would really like solid upward momentum in the final 15 minutes so the shorts can't paint the close.

2 million shares traded, 1 penny gain

The 1.73 level defended again vigorously. Now we've had 2 million shares traded for the last two days and only 1 cent close higher. That's the beauty of owning cheap shares and warrants when you are a fund that primarily shorts stock, you automatically have a profitable trade if you sell (short) at a higher price. Now if the market falls a dime, you can cover by buying the shares in the open market only to short more later when the SP is higher knowing in your back pocket you still have $1.24 shares or warrants that can be delivered to cover the future short. One can repeat this until the warrant (in particular) has to be exercised.

On the flip side, if the market goes higher against your short, you can just easily deliver $1.24 shares or warrants to cover.

I witnessed this in the mining sector when there were a bunch of warrants outstanding. A stock would be under constant, tireless sell pressure until when the warrants had to be excercised due to expiry. Once the warrants exercised, the aggressive sell side pressure would disappear resulting in the stock going much higher.

What RGSE needs is very high volume (e.g. 2 million+ share traded days), that pushes the price higher but then stays there without any sharp pull backs. That would be a great way of getting the shorts out of the stock so it can more freely trade via true price discovery dictated by fundamentals instead of parasites using their size to push the market around and grinding money out from retail investors.

I disagree that the shorts have covered as written in the article. The price action shows that $1.73 is being heavily defended. If you were a buyer of the latest share placement, you would want the price to get as high as possible to sell to take profit. Setting a fixed selling price is not what someone does to maximize profit unless you are a short. What I see is that some fund is feeding (selling) this market all the shares it wants to get, anticipating frustrated longs who constantly post "$3+ per share is easy" statements to throw in the towel as their price objectives are not immediately met.

Yesterday 1 million shares traded hands for an unchanged day. We may need a 2 - 3 million share day to get through the wall at $1.73. To do that, it may take something good out of the 10 Q and conference call.

Close over $1.75 Key

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p27997707943&a=414684991&listNum=1

The chart clearly shows the importance of the $1.75 resistance level. If RGSE can close convincingly, then a trip to $2 should come in fairly short order. I'd expect retail buy stops just over $1.75 not to mention, the chart will signal a buy signal after completion of a bullish double bottom.

I don't know if you have HFT trading in the stock or if the $1.75 level is where the profit taking line is for those who got $1.25 shares but someone is marking that level to sell. High volume trading always occurs once the latter $1.60's are visited. The quicker the market can get those warrants exercised and sold into the open market the better.

It's really not about giving a discount to ZTE. Civil suit norm is to ask an obscene amount of money for damages, then the final judgment/settlement is a fraction of that.

My point is, and Postyle reinforced it, Vringo needs leverage to bring the big hammer down on target companies. A strong balance sheet is prime importance but also having a winning track record with the patents you are reinforcing.

One error in my post was $150 - $200 million is not per year but a total over 5 years.

Kevin Porter has a source that a GLOBAL license for ZTE would be in the neighborhood of $500 - $650 million for 5 years. I do not believe ZTE will settle country specific agreements but the whole enchilada. My point of not pushing for $500 million (mucho greedy) is based on the global settlement over a span of 5 years. It makes more sense for Vringo to finalize a reasonable settlement (30% of what is asked for now) with ZTE and use it as a hammer over the other infringing companies.

One strategy a former employer of mine had was to get some settlements first with smaller companies, then use that legal track record to hammer the larger ones. It worked.

Don't sweat the stock price.

I see several posts moaning about the stock price today. Vringo gapped higher today leaving a huge downside target for the oppressive shorts to shoot at. In stock trading, some gaps can never be back filled creating a "breakaway gap". In a stock with a heavy side short presence like Vringo, the news today does not render the stock to have breakaway potential. This gap will close (i.e. fall to $3.15), the sooner the better so that the shackles of the short target are taken off. Shorts want today to be a dud to enforce the psychology that every Vringo spike is short lived and always hammered down. I think the news today is significant enough that those who sold should probably not wait for a sub $3.10 price to get back in; you may not see it again for awhile.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VRNG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96011730934&a=274722983&listNum=3

I believe the injunction news is quite big for Vringo, though today the stock price may not show it. We may see positive stock ramifications next week as shorts quietly try to cover and institutions nibble a bit.

We now see that India is an important market for ZTE and at the moment, they are ordered to stop operating in the country. I think last years $400 million loss for ZTE may be the reason why they have not settled as indicated in Postyle's post:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94333204

The injunction is a big shot in the arm of credibility for Vringo. It is showing that Nokia's patents are becoming less theoretical value adder for Vringo and more real. With ZTE realizing a $2 million loss in revenue per day that the injunction can cause in India, a mere 4 weeks can cost them in revenue more than a settlement cost of an entire year with Vringo. Add to that consumers will also penalize ZTE with eroding brand name prestige.

My hope is that Vringo does not get too greedy here. A $150 - $200 million per year over 5 years would be just fine. No reason to push it over $500 million. They can use a smaller win to get others on their target list to settle.

One observation I have about these patent play stocks is that those companies with solid revenue streams have quite small short interest. Those like Parker Vision, Vringo and VHC with little to no revenue streams are shorted extremely high. A qualifier in this observation is shorts don't seem to bother shorting and playing with OTC listed patent plays. Hence, by Vringo achieving a flow of revenue over several years should erode the appeal by shorts to continue to pressure the stock resulting in sustainable higher stock prices.

The stock sure has bounced off of $3.15 a number of times recently. Normally I would agree that it is a bearish sign. However, in an actively managed price scenario that Vringo has faced for the past year, I think any close over $3 as bullish. Shorts are simply piling up on the ask at $3.15 and feed the market all it wants. This line in the sand is well defined and makes its passage through it more irresistible by bulls the longer it goes. I'd fathom we could see a push through it any day. For the first time since August prior to HJMJ pouring cold water on Vringo (i.e. workaround), I see real risk for the shorts here.

As far as the request for independent experts, I think it is just another excuse to not make a ruling. I think he will do anything to avoid making a decision that he can. There is no evidence in the past year that indicates to me he has grown a pair and will man up by ruling. My expectation is he will get the independent experts involved, there will be he said/she said and more rounds of hearings etc. I hope I am dead wrong but HJMJ appears to be a tough judge when the cases are easy and a real whimp when they are not.

I'd like to parrot what Postyle has been saying for a long time. That is the more immediate value add here is ZTE case/Nokia patents. A win there with cash coming on a relative near term horizon could boost Vringo's market perception bringing in more institutional investment. The shorts will not like that.

Cup & Handle Formed

I've been away from posting for several months since it was quite apparent the stock was not going to do anything until late this year. We have on deck the German ZTE ruling and the wild card of Molasses Jackson finally issuing a RR ruling.

The stock chart has formed a beautiful Cup & Handle formation. In a free traded market, the formation is quite bullish with a price objective of $3.64. Considering the oppressive short side, we should note this pattern and know that the short side has to do a lot more to contain the price. They may have a handful particularly as December 17th ruling date approaches. They also have to deal with the speculation of a settlement between Vringo and ZTE with the 60% tendency in German courts to settle before the final ruling. Considering Nokia was a giant in this space for many years, their patents packing a big punch should help this settlement tendency.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VRNG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96011730934&a=274722983&listNum=3

Per the chart, a close over $3.20 will be quite bullish as it has not closed over that level since August. My preference is a few cent climb for several days so that it becomes much harder for the shorts to play "Whack-A-Mole".

Blue Calypso's 10Q is out tonight.

Revenue for Q3 was $235,000. Net loss from operations was $1.54 million. 167 million shares outstanding as of today.

What were investors expecting at this point from the more recent settlements?

8 Weeks to ZTE Trial, Germany

Judge Raymond Jackson has been painfully slow in rendering any judgments in the Vringo V Google case though he finally confirmed 20.9% apportionment. I think Google may just have fallen into their own trap by telling the court they have a successful workaround as of May 11th. Many programmers and market observers have noted that outside the courtroom, there has been absolutely no public disclosure of any modifications in their Adwords algorithms. Hence, if they are caught in obvious lie, HJJ could nail them with the maximum 7% RR. That would be roughly a total award through April 2016 of $1.2 Billion.

Bottom line though, today's order just added 5 months to that saga. However, most view Vringo as a one trick pony. In just a little over 8 weeks, Vringo v ZTE trial takes place October 15th in Germany. Vringo has sued ZTE in multiple jurisdictions. From what I understand, Germany's judicial system is infinitely faster than the US and they can order an injunction quickly, assuming Vringo wins, within weeks of the judgment. That Nokia patent portfolio could really take many by surprise in terms of its value.

6th Month a Charm?

I had a shower inspiration today to check the closing price of Vringo on the day of options expiry. Here are the closing prices:

July 19: $2.98

June 21: $2.99

May 17: $2.82

April 19: $2.88

March 15: $2.98

February 15: $3.20

January 18: $3.18

We have seen 5 consecutive months of the Vringo price close below the $3 strike price. The $3 strike price for calls has been on average the most popular in open interest for this stock. Call writers (and/or short sellers) have been able to ensure that all of the calls written at $3 expire worthless.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VRNG&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p57700612870&a=298953728&listNum=3

Sellers have knocked down or left the price unchanged for Vringo for 6 straight trading sessions. They are pushing hard to get the price under control. However, volume has been weak as the shorts have been pushing to flush longs out and hit sell stops. I almost get the feeling that a big money sees no need to push the stock higher yet because they have willing and eager sellers filling their bid.

So, will the shorts/call writers have enough in them to drop the price over 8% tomorrow? Or will the 6th month be a charm and the shorts will have failed? Either way, come Monday the short side will be susceptible to a counter attack as the traditional down week for Vringo will be over.

Dunham, the other factor that is holding the price down is a very large and active short selling pool. They have controlled the price for the last 8 months with the exception of the trade of the last three weeks. It is apparent that steady accumulation of Vringo has been taking place. Eventually this should cause a short covering rally and push the "steady state" price higher than it presently is. The way you beat them is hold onto your shares.

Smash at open, grind all day.

Shorts have been grinding at the price hoping to trigger sell stops like they did yesterday. The Interactive Brokers data for the availability of shares to short shows a regular occurrence of the pool being significantly drawn down at the open. My theory is the shares are used to push the price down to gain negative momentum.



Then, on the way to the forum, the best laid plans are spoiled by an intraday mini-short squeeze. I stand by my posts of recent memory of a new sheriff being in town. The last couple of days of the price grinding lower has been done on very light volume. Those high volume days followed by very light downside volume, are showing me that the new buyers are not quick to sell.

feisty, there is a time lag in the reporting. The report out today only goes to July 31st. We will not know the August 15th short interest until Aug 26.

Here are two good links to bookmark on this topic:

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=ShortIntPubSch

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-shtnasdaq_V-listing.html

Vringo Short Interest & Trade

Short interest as of July 31 was at 17.5 million. This means about 930,000 shares short were covered on that high volume moon shot on no news two weeks ago. I put a dashed vertical line on the chart when the report end date was (July 31). With Interactive Brokers showing a very tight short pool of 45,000 shares at a high rate of 39%, leads me to believe that the short interest could be back up to 18.5 million shares short. I should point out that the closing price was $3.15 as of the date of the report.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VRNG&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p57700612870&a=298953728&listNum=3

The Whale is still lurking and soaking up the shares but is exhibiting more patient behavior. Volume was light as the price was in $3.39 area and picked up the higher the price went. Hence, the Vringo tree is being shaken but not much fruit is landing on the ground. Now buyers look like they have to reach to the get the low level fruit still on the lower branches of the tree.

The longer the price stagnates here with diminishing volume, the less confident fresh shorts are going to be. Assuming this behavior persists, fresh shorts are going to find themselves pushing down on a market that won't budge. This will make them more susceptible to a intraday squeeze. If the intraday squeeze exceeds $3.60, there might be more momentum to push higher before the price gets whacked down.

I do have to point out there are 20,000 calls total at $3.50 and $3 that expire at the end of next week. Last month, call sellers were able to push July $3 calls to be worthless. Now there are Whales involved in the market, can call sellers and shorts accomplish hammering the price to get those calls to become worthless? My observation of this market is that $3 should be a bridge too far. They have a much better chance at $3.50.

Of course should HJMJ rule on RR and apportionment, all bets are off.

Volume a desert

11:50 AM - 12:18 PM I counted a whopping volume 18,300 shares traded. In one 5 minute period, Vringo did not trade a single share. This is exactly the type of trade bulls need to see in this stock. It is classic flag & pennant type of trade. Not even the shorts are willing to hit the bid. Volume dry up after a large surge in volume and price is now setting the stock for a move higher. Don't expect a straight vertical as we have seen in the last couple of weeks. Though this market is so skittish, just having HJMJ showing he has a pulse is enough for a 20 cent shot higher.

The way it looks now, if we maintain the price of $3.40 for the remainder of the day, the volume will be under 1 million shares. Light volume would be bad for the shorts from a technical perspective. Will the shorts attack to push the price lower and generate some volume? or, Will the whale(s) accumulating Vringo decide that Friday they are ready for a Friday afternoon push higher to close this thing above $3.50? Stay tuned.....

Oh, only 45,000 shares available to short at 39% rate. The availability has been thin all day so the 300,000 shares that were removed before open yesterday were likely shorted into the market at this price and are yet to be covered. Triggering a buy stop of 300,000 shares should be enough to get Vringo a nickel or a dime higher on this thin trade.

Quite Accumulation

That firm bid continues to absorb everything that the shorts throw at them. I got home just in time for the last few minutes of trade. The sellers were pushing Vringo to close in the high 3.30's then buyers came in and pushed it back over $3.40. In fact, there were over 100,000 shares on the bid as the stock closed. This is not retail coming in to save the day. Someone wants this stock and they have some capital behind them.

I checked my Interactive Brokers to view the detail of the shares short availability and rate. I believe that detail on a half-hour basis is only available for IB users, which I am. FYI, as far as online brokers go, I highly recommend Interactive Brokers.

One thing I see in the short availability data that commonly shows up in VHC, is a sudden draw down of shares at the open of the trading day. This is also a common occurrence for Vringo and explains the often early weakness in the stock on the open. Here's Vringo's short availability data where I had to use a picture to capture the data:



As you can see, 350,000 shares at the open were drawn down to a mere 35,000. I like the rate shorts have to pay as it is 40.3%. Hence, someone borrowing these shares has to pay the equivalent of a 2.6 cent move, every single week to break even. What would be fantastic, is if we could see the short pool dry up and the rate march above 50% again. One thing I should point out with the tight short pool. Vringo's short interest as of today may be still at the 18.5 million figure. Unfortunately, we won't know until August 26th.

The trade is chugging along and I like what I see. About 30+ million shares were bought over the closing price in the last two weeks. Only 1.5 million shares traded today, some were part of that 30+ million and others were fresh short sales. My guess is that the whale(s) who have been accumulating will have to take the price higher to attain some real volume of Vringo. Are they content to accumulate 1 - 2 million shares each day? A few more days of low volume, side-ways trade will set this stock up nicely for another run higher. My crystal ball says that if we get another 10 million share move higher day, that the stock closes over $3.70.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VRNG&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p57700612870&a=298953728&listNum=3

Curious trade in the warrants.

We have to take the table scraps and make a sensible mosaic about the past couple weeks of trade. Oddly enough the warrant trade was exceptionally unusual. A total of 251,000 warrants traded hands today. A typical warrant volume day is around 40,000. Today's volume is the highest since.......November 6, 2012 when the verdict was rendered. The closest volume since that time was in early January this year around 170,000.

Someone was vacuum cleaning all they could take at $1.20 yet the warrant's value is $1.14. Most of the volume in the warrants occurred well after the intraday spike. Warrants are very thinly traded with very wide bids and asks. The Warrant Hoover appears to me expecting a large return on his investment and is willing to be stuck with a large warrant position that will likely take several weeks to get out at a decent price if the stock price stays in the $3.00 - $3.50 range.

One other observation here. The stoic bid underneath Vringo does not seem to get the well capitalized shorts to flinch. When we trade flat-lined in a 3 cent range for hours on end, there are shorts just digging in their heels and giving the market everything it will take at a set price. This looks more like an effort to stifle the price rise as opposed to get the highest stock print to short to achieve the best return on the trade.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VRNG&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p57700612870&a=298953728&listNum=3

Thanks sab, I was dyslexic about the timelines.

JJ question on Pacer timeline.

The Judge said 5 days for both parties to come up with numbers. Should we be seeing activity today on this as it is the 5th business day? TIA

New Sheriff In Town

It appears the Whack-A-Mole shorts and sell the spike/repurchase under $3 crowd are being schooled by a new Sheriff. These mini-squeezes where there is a sudden intraday spurt higher is likely caused by the persistent firm bid we have seen over the last few weeks. Today's mini-squeeze was aided by breaking the primary downtrend line that is drawn by the recent HOD's.

I'm starting to see periodic large blocks on the bid. The perplexing part is that the big money who is accumulating isn't waiting to have the shorts grind the stock down, stagnate and accumulate. They are in a bit of a hurry as far as institutions are concerned. Though I did not think it likely, these folks generally only become in a "rush" if there is a lock on a nice return.

What is best for this stock, IMO, is to have the share price grind higher today and get into a position of closing in the $3.70 area this week. Whack-A-Mole for the more capitalized shorts (who presently aren't blinking) is in the $3.70'ish area. The first big spike two weeks ago went to $3.60, then we saw a $3.70 last week followed by a $3.90 on Monday. The $3.90 spike was an easy one for shorts to pound because of the 36 cent gap that had to be closed.

Interesting trade indeed, now let's see how this stock closes each day for the rest of the week. Wouldn't it be great if we got another big, high volume TGIF move?