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Hi Mr.OTC. I just happened to be cruising by tonight and saw your post. Yes, it's been well over a year since I did all this work on the EVK board. I once was excited about a few Chinese micro-caps.
I still think this company probably has potential, however a few things have changed my way of thinking about the markets and the economy since the summer of 2010.
I turned very bearish about a year ago. Many folks did not listen to me at the time. I was a little early... However it turns out I was basically right to be a bear. I won't get into all the reasons why I think it is a bad idea to buy ANY stocks right now.
Much of my reasoning has to do with a poor economic recovery and my fears of high inflation coming in a few years. IMO, the only thing that has been lifting the market for the last year or so is quantitative easing from the Fed. Or in other words, massive helicopter drops of currency!
This so called stimulus is not working like it has in the past. The Fed can't lower rates much more, all they can do is print more currency. The short term effect of all this 'money printing' is holding up stocks and giving us a very mild economic recovery. However, the long term effect of these monetary policies will most likely bring on massive inflation. It's like a missile heading our way.
So, anyways, EVK may be a good buy right now but I would not buy any paper assets in this environment. I personally am buying gold and silver for the coming inflation and I am hoping and praying that I am wrong.
Sorry I get a little long winded, I really love this stuff. What ever you decide to do, good luck to you my friend...
Ahh! The Bohemian Grove! Now I really like this board. You know, I bet most people do not even realize how many of our leaders attend.
Furthermore, I would bet they don't understand exactly what the Bohemian Grove actually is.
Known Members of Bohemian Grove
Both George Bushes
Ronald Reagan
Henry Kissinger
Richard Nixon
Casper Weinberger
Dick Cheney
Malcom Forbes
Colin Powell
Helmut Schmidt
Stephen Bechtel (Bechtel Corp.)
James Baker
Jerry Cole
David Rockefeller
Newt Gingrich
Tom Johnson (President of CNN and former publisher of LA Times.
William Randolph Hearst Jr.
Jack Howard
Charles Scripps (Of the Scripps-Howard Newspaper publishers)
Walter Cronkite (On the CBS board of management)
And a host of prominent CEOs and business leaders, most of them conservative, many of them from California, 99 percent of them white men.
http://www.jesus-is-savior.com/False%20Religions/Wicca%20&%20Witchcraft/bohemian_grove_exposed.htm
I am sorry if anyone here is a George Bush fan. I mean no harm, nor am I judging. After all, I am basically a Republican. But Mr. Bush was NOT what many people believed.
He is part of the demise of this great nation...
Hi TruthInTime,
I was just cruising by and 'swam' into your board. I like it very much. I particularly liked the PDF file that accompanied this video.
Nice trade Briboy. Very nice indeed...
I don't really think all trading is for suckers. But if you turned a trade into an unwanted investment, ya, you got suckered!
Hey, everybody has done it probably more than we all would like to admit. But the bottom line is we have to stop doing that or stop trading.
IMO it is VERY serious business. Remember there are lots of SHARKS in the water! I hope you will someday forgive me, after all, we are brothers in Christ.
I was extremely hard on you to make a point. There are no friends in the market. Only sharks.
BTW, I am extremely hard on myself as well...
I was right when I was bearish about this stock several months ago. It will be a buy someday...
I was not so right about the market as a whole back then, but as far as I'm concerned it has rallied too far too fast in this PHONEY economic recovery. I'm still bearish and believe it's not a good idea to buy ANY stocks for quite some time, especially an unprofitable airline stock.
I'ts nothing more than Helicopter Ben's Bubble money that has propelled this market to rally for so long.
I have no delusions that I can swing trade successfully in what I believe to be an overvalued market.
In fact I no longer have any delusions that I can trade short term and consistently make a profit. I was wrong about that too. I think short term trading is for suckers and MOST traders lose in the long run. Much study and experience the last several years has brought me to that conclusion.
There is a time to buy and a time to sell.
One of these days the bear will come out and play. I will be ready to pick up the bargains...
I like your style deepman49. However I don't think Karma has a lot to do with it. Maybe...
Some people will never learn that you don't buy or try to 'swing trade' a stock when it's in a CLEAR downtrend.
It's arrogant to think you can swim against the tide without getting bit.
Briboy proves my point perfectly.
Ya, I think it has potential to go to ten bucks again. But I also think it has potential to go down to $2.00 as well.
I can't even begin to predict what is going to happen these days. I wonder how high oil is going to go?
I'm personally learning how to let the price tell me how to trade. Not predicting what might happen, but let the reality of what IS happening dictate the way I trade.
I know that is probably not a satisfactory answer. For what it's worth, the price has been trending down for quite some time with no real signs of a reversal. What is the price telling us?
Ya, an investment of ice in Alaska might pay off better than an unprofitable airline stock. I don't know why anybody would hold this long term.
It's a good trader though. When your crystal ball says it's ready to reverse, I'll follow it back up with ya. It will be a nice move, if it ever does reverse...
I just happened to be swimming by tonight-been extremely busy with my business lately. I noticed that you are still trying to predict stock prices. Shame on you!!
Well, you were right and I was wrong. It did go lower.
Nice prediction. Let me know when you think I should buy. I think your predictions just might be GOLDEN!
He He... See ya
No, the truth is I am not trading in stocks right now. I love to follow them. I am developing my own currency trading strategy right now on a demo account. It is a lot of work that keeps me busy.
Then I am going to trade currencies in a small way until I can consistently make small profits.
I will always follow stocks just for fun and will probably trade in them once in a while.
Not too long ago I used to get burned by holding on too long hoping it will come back etc, etc. Not anymore my friend!
I am out of there quick if something goes against me. You have to give the market room to breath of course, but that's a judgment call i guess...
Okay, the bet is on! I say AMR is going higher from here.
My thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Japan this morning...
I will admit that i have a bullish bias. I have been and am working on that. I need a neutral bias so I can analyze the price action better.
So, more likely than not, you are probably correct in your prediction for amr to go lower. Heck, even with my bullish bias I have been bearish for a few months. I think the stock market went too far too fast.
It is extremely hard to analyze the price action and look for signs of strength in trend or reversals if a person has a bias towards being bullish or bearish.
I am looking forward to seeing who is right. I say it COULD be the start of a new uptrend because of that big move on volume. You say it's going to the 5's.
Hey, wanna bet?
Ya, the DOW absolutely tanked today. Wow! But AMR held strong.
On the 8th it made a nice move on big volume. Biggest move on strong volume in a long time. It was promising. You are right about the debt. It seemed like good news, but the fact is they are fundamentally a train wreck. I would not invest in a stock that is losing so much money.
Anyway... Today's action was promising as well considering the dow tanked. It tried to rally again! It could not rally past the last swing high of the $6.75 area.
Continued weakness in the dow will probably make this last rally attempt nothing more than a fake move. You could be right, it could go to the 5's.
But I am watching closely, that big volume day on the 8th could be a big sign. A big sign to get aboard with the bulls again!
Time will tell. Place your bets and place your stops...
It sliced right through that near term support area didn't it.
Good call! I'm glad you got out too.
I was looking at the daily chart. The last few days, the 8th & 9th, the price went up on lower volume.
As far as I'm concerned that was another clue that strength is still with the bears. Going lower...
Have a good one bud!
Ya, i would bet that you're right. Should have made a stronger move IMO. Strength has been on the bear side while bullish pressure is weak.
It would be nice to buy lower. I think I might like to see it bottom first and then see some real bullish order flow before buying this. It could just slowly grind lower... However it is at a near term support area, so I'll be watching it close!
I guess that is why I believe it is wise to just cut your losses right away and reevaluate the situation on the sidelines. It's not a sin to reenter again, even at a higher price if it starts acting right.
You just never know what the heck these stocks will do next sometimes. The only thing we CAN control is how much money we will lose on the losers...
Have a good night and happy trading!
You bet. Good luck, I think you may have found a good one.
They have a nice balance sheet and a great growth rate I see at a quick glance.
I wonder why the market has been so down on Chinese stocks for the last several months? It almost seems like investors are not sure whether or not to believe in the great numbers.
I have grown to be distrustful of fundamentals myself. But I like the chart. I think it is a good buy right now. The 5 day chart is turning up, support at $6.70 area. I like it. I would buy with a stop around $6.60...
Hey toohip4u. I found you, I thought you meant this one.
Just a quick look, this stock looks fundamentally great. A low PE and and really low PEG. Very tempting...
To be honest, I have been burned a little bit before on some of these Chinese plays. I love em, I think they have tremendous opportunity.
Looks like an attractive place to buy this stock for a nice bounce. I don't want to see it sink back below $6.70...
Okay, fine. I will lay off. I think I made my point about how STRONG I feel about education. Especially in something like trading stocks.
This is a serious game bud, and there are REAL sharks out there. They are a lot smarter than I am and they have a big bank roll. They will eat you up man...
We have talked on the phone several times and I appreciate talking to you. As a friend I will challenge you and not just tell you what I think you want to hear.
I don't know it all. Far from it. But i do know enough to see a few big mistakes you are making. I don't want to see you blow yourself out of the market.
Why can't you just take this a little more seriously a read a few books? It will not kill you and I think you might be surprised how much it would do you good.
I really hope AMR comes back and makes you whole again. But until that time remember, an unrealized loss is still a loss. So are you REALLY making as much money as you say you are?
There is no shame in being honest. This is a hard game and we need to help each other, not play big man. I know you are not doing as well as you like to put out there. But that is okay. We are still learning man.
It takes some people years to really learn this game. The secret is not to blow up before you get really good. Failure rate is so high because people either quit too early or get blown out of the market.
I don't want to see either happen to you. Sorry I am so passionate...
All I have to say is, good luck.
Nothing more to say. You already know everything you need to know. Your cup is full.
You cannot add more to a full cup.
Have a good weekend.
Ya, another way of saying just what i told you. Don't go long in a down trend.
Wait until AMR is back in an uptrend again. Then your swing trading strategy will work just fine.
I can predict that as well as toohip4u can predict price levels. Pretty much a sure thing...
Absolutely!
I believe that is part of the design too. That is why so called traditional trading education is so dangerous.
It is good to look at the market from a different point of view sometimes and learn from it.
Have a good night my friend...
Oh, and I like to annoy you because you take it so well. LOL
I am giving you some of the best of my trading education to make you a better trader. Just say thank you.
At this present time you have a bigger account than me and trade more actively. I have been trading a little, studying a lot, then trading a little more.
All the while I am saving a stake big enough to trade more seriously. I am not going to trade seriously without knowing my game cold. That is the way I am. Very slow and methodical, patient. I am a shark...
Sure I do. Read my post to toohip4u. I am getting on him for his constant predicting and forecasting.
Predicting and forecasting in a random environment is futile...
I am constantly learning more about trading as I go. I have made changes where I needed to make changes and I have admitted when I was wrong about something.
That is called growth. You think I am always changing. No, I am always learning and growing in trading knowledge.
You think you can open up an account and start making a bunch of money without doing your homework first? Trading is not that easy. I wish it were...
I absolutely do practice what i preach.
I am only discussing trading on a trading forum. That is what it is for isn't it?
Or would you rather I discussed something else. Perhaps football or something?
Predicting and forecasting is fun, but it might lend itself to a belief system that gives you a bias. The bias being that you think you might be right.
Nobody really knows what will happen next.
I used to trade with indicators. Now i know i will be getting in too late using indicators.
What are indicators? They are derivatives of the price, therefore lagging in nature.
So what is the solution. In my humble opinion, the solution lies in analysis of price. (Oh, and trading psychology)
What is price? Price is traders making trading decisions. Do you see where I am going with this?
It is a known fact that most traders are wrong a lot. So find the places where traders will be trapped, and trade against them. For a more exhaustive study of price action analysis check out Lance Beggs. http://www.yourtradingcoach.com/
He is a really good trader and a good guy. I am not affiliated at all, just sharing good info with my buds as i find it...
There's nothing wrong with your trading, other than you are trying to swim upstream by going long in a down trending market.
It does matter. If the main trend is down, you should look for shorting opportunities. If the main trend is up, you should look for opportunities to go long.
It's not more complicated than that. Swim with the tide...
I'm glad that is no longer true.
It has nothing to do with how well I know you. I really don't know you well enough to make any kind of diagnosis of your personal psychology.
However I can diagnose symptoms that ALL of us traders suffer from. Learning how to quickly change my mind and take a small loss is one of the hardest things I have learned to do as a trader.
It is human nature to fear and hope. When a position goes against us, we hope it will come back. When we are in profit, we fear the market will take away that profit.
Therefore, our natural reaction is to hold on to losses and sell a profit too soon. That is the wrong reaction, and is why most traders lose in the long run. This statement is controvertible. It doesn't make any difference what anybody says to the contrary.
I know this to be true.
So instead of hoping a position comes back, we should fear our losses will grow bigger.
Instead of fearing the market will take away our small profit, we should hope our profit will become a bigger profit.
This is exceedingly difficult to do... It's not about the market. It's about our psychology and way we interpret and react to the information the market provides us with.
A very famous and successful speculator once said; "A speculator must be on the job all the time, or he soon will have no job"
No sleeping on the job is permitted in the speculative markets...
I'm not arguing with ya. But how has it been working for ya lately?
More than a few times you have told me how you made money on 25 trades in a row. You have told me that you are a short term trader and you don't want to hold long term. That is great, I agree...
But why are you still holding on to a loser trade? I'm not getting on your ass about this, it is psychology. If you don't get your psychology right you will never be a good trader.
Your problem that you must come to terms with is simple. You can't take a loss. You think every trade has to be a winner. That is just not possible and it is not a logical way to think.
That is what I have been harping on lately. If you can't admit your wrong and take a small loss you will not make as much money in the long term.
I am trying to help. But I imagine you will come back with one of your smart ass comments to try to put me down in some way because you are too proud and have too much ego.
You can't admit you are wrong sometimes. Let your pride and ego go so you can grow as a trader...
The nice thing about trying new things is experiencing new things.
Sure, sometimes I might grab onto something and lose a few teeth...
All my buddies like tuna. They say, stay with tuna, it's safer. If I followed my buddies I never would have known how tasty salmon is!
Now I just don't want to go back. I've lost my taste for tuna...
You said it. Twenty five swing trades in a row when the stock was BULLISH. You can't lose if you go long and stock is going up!
A lot of times you make my points better than I do and you think I am arguing with you. Well, I do enjoy the discussions.
I agree, simplicity is always better, and I'll tell you what, it doesn't get am more simple than trading like a rat.
I've come full circle in the last few years and agree with you 100% about short term trading. You were right and I was wrong.
It's just that I have found my home in the currency markets and you are still in stocks. That's the only difference between us...
Have a good weekend bud!
Ya, you're right. I mean, AMR moves. No doubt about it.
I did not run any statistical studies on this, but what is the average daily range of AMR?
About 30 to 50 cents? I know some days are big, but it seems to me the AVERAGE daily range is under 50 cents.
Now nobody can catch the whole range every day. Maybe in a 50 cent range a trader would do good to catch half of it on average.
If you didn't want to risk much and had a $1000.00 account, you could buy about 135 shares of AMR, at current prices.
Now if you can catch a .15 move in the daily range you just made yourself 2% on your account. Nice...
But you have to use all your money on every trade and then with stocks the funds have to clear, or settle, before you can make another trade.
Those are two big strikes against trading stocks for my daily 2%...
I didn't post that I made money to brag. I know that most traders lose money over the long haul. I said most. If you really are profitable, then i am truly happy for you.
Most people will not admit it, or they are in denial, but statistics are statistics.
I am trying to spread the word a little that it IS possible to make money trading. But the way most of us have been taught will not work.
Why do you think thousands of people spend thousands of dollars on seminars, books and systems and still lose money.
We are basically being duped. You don't have to believe me, that is your choice. But if you are curious, do a search for:
TheRumpledOne trade like a rat
You're on the internet, you will find what you are looking for...
Oh ya... Go AMR!
Hopefully AMR will run back up soon.
To be honest, not exactly sure what you are talking about. No, you can't bat 1000%. Nobody can.
But you can be right 50% to 60% of the time. Even if you are only right 40% of the time you can make small consistent returns if you ALWAYS keep your losses small and manage your winning trades correctly.
In the right market with the right strategy, 10% or so a week can be achieved.
It's when people try to hit home runs that gets them in trouble...
Have a great weekend bud!
I will stay with AMR. It's just that it doesn't move that much. I mean it moves, but most stocks seems like they move in big spurts, then they go flat line for like forever.
I love trading forex because it MOVES. Hey, I'm a shark, am attracted to movement.
I made 10% on my small account this week. Not a lot of money, but it's a small account. I think ANY trader would love 10% in a week. Think about it...
Actually last night was my best trading so far. It was not my night and I lost money. I lost $10.00!!!
Now that is cutting your losses short!
From the book: WHY YOU LOSE AT TRADING by TheRumpledOne
IF YOU GET ON THE WRONG TRAIN, HEADING IN THE
OPPOSITE DIRECTION THAT YOU WANT TO GO, WHEN DO
YOU GET OFF THAT TRAIN?
DO YOU GET OFF ON THE FIRST
STOP OR DO YOU WAIT UNTIL THE TRAIN REACHES ITS
FINAL DESTINATION?
You hate to lose, don’t you? If that is really the case, then
it’s better to lose a little than a lot. Please make a note of
that.
No one bats a thousand. No one completes all of their
passes. No one wins all of their matches. No one! So why
do you think you should win all of your trades?
Calculate your stop loss and stick to it. NO EXCEPTIONS!
NONE! EVER! UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES ARE YOU TO
FAIL TO EXECUTE YOUR STOP LOSS. Is that clear?
Yep. Looks like you are right. Might be going lower.
I might buy a little if it gets really attractive, but the last week or so I have been focusing on currencies. Starting to get the hang of it. Made a little money last night.
Hey Bri, I really believe the bottom might be in here at AMR.
I looked at the 1 hr chart. Retested about $7.03 or so with a bullish divergence on the MACD
Doesn't mean that is the bottom for sure, we deal with probabilities here. But it is a good thing...
You swim like a shark!
Oh no! I am not the good dr. shittaye, or whatever. That is silly.
Well, I gotta grab a quick bite and hit the road...