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Justa,
Agree NEM hanging in pretty good. No options for me either.
>>I am moving from "unattractive" to "pretty sucky"...that is a downgrade.<<
LOL indeed!
Dive Bar lingo makes sense. The one I hate is "buy" downgraded to "accumulate". That means, if you see them on the ground, pick them up.
Thanks for the updates.
>>Bartender, hit me again <g>.<<
It is Friday. Make mine a double.
Justa, thanks. Good call so far.
NEM looking bottomish or at least bottomoid.
NEM is disconnected from your intermediate-term "unattractive", correct?
Can you reveal if options play any role in your strategy?
TIA.
Justa. Official bounce on gold? NEM steady.
If I may ask, do you average-in on a tricky long like an NEM bottom?
I would buy some here, but I can't afford stocks over $5!!
Math,
>>Are "they" all tipsy too?<<
I believe you are correct. Our advantage is we know we've been drinking.
I remember a scene I saw in a 40's movie:
An unsuspecting guy steps into a dive bar and orders a drink. They don't have it. "What do you have?", he asks. "We have stong drinks for people who want to get drunk fast", says the barman.
If the big-picture brings us absurdities, we'll deal with it in the Dive Bar.
NEM does look like a good bet. I'm tempted myself.
The seasonal effect is sharp, so I assume you're looking for profits in a matter of days.
Gold took a Chinese bounce in Hong Kong.
I'll need a night cap to get to sleep. Make it a Dive-Bar Bomber, the house special.
Justa,
It is getting wild out there. Only the bold are going for gold.
If I may ask, what vehicle will you use to go long?
(That seasonal chart is impressive.)
TIA.
Justa, thanks for the update.
So next week may be the last Happy Hour for September? I'm good with that.
Let us know if you get a view into October. Especially if any bear tracks are sighted around the Dive Bar's dumpster.
(Tell the barman to mind the passed out lurkers when he sweeps up the peanut shells.)
TIA
Justa, thanks for the update. I'll take the seasonal bear more seriously if you spot that critter.
EX, that is interesting. One more seasonal bear.
As I remember it, OJ called the SOX "toast" at the bottom in '04.
If you find any seasonal bulls, let me know. I'm lonely. <g>
Agree, I just meant the HOD. <eom>
Justa, good call on the hourly chart. 2:05pm looks like the top.
Nothing "nasty" appearing yet. Zeev's five-day window for the top has passed.
Got it. Thanks, Justa. <EOM>
The Turnip Crew is doing a lot of "bopping". They are trying to shave 100 points off of the NAZ. Hmmmm....
I'm betting opposite.
I like the Dive Bar Boss's bigger picture:
>>So this slop worked in creating a bunch of bears. The whole grueling process created many bears. That is healthy for the bulls for now and maybe going forward.<<
Neutral short-term? No problem.
If we do take a 100-point hit, at least the booze is cheap in the Dive Bar.
Thanks, Justa.
>>With the run up here, I am taking some profits and have become short term neutral on the market.<<
Couldn't be more clear and concise. Keep us posted.
Do you care to reveal your preferred trading vehicle at any given time? SPY? Q's? SMH? etc. Just askin'. I understand if it is proprietary.
Hey, the Dive Bar is open 24/7. I like that!
In California, they have to close between 2am and 6am. You could die of thirst.
LOL! My doctor said the same thing.
It is nice to be a recognized expert in something.
If SMH is green, we'll celebrate. If red, we'll drown our sorrow.
34.5 minutes to go.
Got it, Justa. Thanks.
A dive bar beer tastes real good....between shots of cheap whiskey. The future is best viewed through empty shot glasses.
We're bullish for now.
Math,
That is funny.
"Dive bars often have outdoor commercial signage that appears dated." A fine point I had not considered. So true!
I drive by two joints in one block; the "Tattletale" and the "Scarlet Lady". I haven't been in yet, but the signs haven't been repainted in 30 years. Dive bars for sure!
>>Looking for a cycle up from this point short term<<
"short-term" = days ??
Justa,
Thanks.
You have clarified several major points which I couldn't quite figure out. I wasn't even sure why I was feeling bullish, but that seems consistent with your rational, big-picture analysis.
If we are indeed on an upcycle for the SOX, will it take months to play out? Any WAG on what the high could be?
Heh, we're in a dive bar. If we're wrong, we'll blame it on the cheap booze!
Justa,
Thanks for the detailed response. Very informative.
The SOX is a beast, and I don't understand it very well.
Can you clarify some points?
A 3-year chart of the SOX does show a perfect trading vehicle. Do you know if was driven up and down by earnings, multiple expansion/contraction, or both? The way it revisited the 560 high exactly 24 months later seems precisely mechanical. Has it been turned into a trading machine?
Do I understand correctly that a unison bottom in the seasonally weak autumn would be your most bullish scenario? In anticipation of a good run, I would take more SMH at a revisit to the July low.
I think most people would be shocked to see the SOX run well above 500. Maybe the time is ripe. We'll have happy hour at the Dive Bar.
Please keep us updated when you see things developing.
TIA.
Justa,
I don't post very often, but I love hanging out in dive bars.
Thanks for setting up a space and sharing your market views.
The bearishness on Zeev's thread surprised me. He issued a "sell" on 8/16 at NAZ 2135, calling for a retreat to 2060 (or worse). Wrong, so far.
I like your intermediate-term bullish stance better.
I went long SMH for the first time in two years. In your opinion, is there any obvious reason why SMH could not lead a fairly strong move over several months? That is my bet.
I'm not a trader. I just don't believe SMH can stay confined between 30 and 40 forever.
Any input appreciated.
TIA.
Is TLAB the only drag on the sector today? They are blaming the T merger for weak rev guidance. Not good.
Everything on my list is down 3% to 8%. The rising tide is receding again.
GA warned of mergers last May:
>>Recent telco mergers, such as Verizon-MCI and SBC-AT&T, will probably act as a trigger for further restructuring. Pressure has moved down to the equipment OEMs, and the Lucent-Alcatel merger is likely to stimulate similar consolidation. The result - fewer but more powerful downstream customers - will further weaken the hand of the leading optical-component players if they do not respond. Put simply, this industry is not grabbing the opportunity to consolidate ahead of its customers and move decisively to recreate pricing advantage and economy of scale.<<
Three Kings and the Duke: The shorts really piled on last month.
Increase in short interest and days to cover:
AVNX: +124%, 2.2 (new record)
BKHM: +68%, 5.6 (near record)
FNSR: +55%, 2.4 (new record)
JDSU: -8%, 2.2 (near record)
Only JDSU got a breather from June's record short interest.
It looks like a heavy bet against good news in the sector.
Bring on some good news!
BKHM's new, near-record short interest surprises me. I don't see how it can be anything but short speculation against the report. BKHM has been on the SHO list for 10 sessions. I think it is bullish, unless somebody already knows "bullish" is really "bullsh*t" from GA.
Mrpev (on the Yahoo board) likes what he sees from AFOP and T in their reports. I agree. (I'm trying to get him to post over here).
Odds still favor the longs, IMO.
BKHM needs a miracle like AGR.
AGR misses revs $382M/$400M, beats earnings 0.27/0.16, guides lower for next Q, while cash drops to $490M from $620M. On that the stock is up 22%. I don't get it.
If BKHM beats earnings, we should be up 100%.
Nine days to earnings. At this point, I don't think anything else matters much.
If the news is neutral to mildly good, BKHM should do fine. If the news murky and questionable, GA's credibilty will remain a major negative issue. If the news is flat-out bad, eg. declining revs, worsening margins, bad guidance, etc., longs are screwed as insolvency looms.
I see it as a crap-shoot with the odds in favor of the longs, 60/40, I hope! (Disclosure: long 23k).
Two bright spots: BKHM is holding yesterday's gain, so bad news hasn't yet leaked; and those "brilliant" stock pickers at Penn Capital did go long 3.8M shares.
Howa, that is good news. Not everyone believes BKHM is going out of business!
A quick look at "Penn Capital" is reassuring. They state their small cap objective is to "outperform the Russell 2k", so they were not forced to buy BKHM. They went long based on BKHM's valuation and potential in the sector. That is why we are way long BKHM. We've got some pros on our side!
GB, here is BKHM's lackluster guidance for this Q:
>>For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2006, ending July 1 2006, the Company expects revenue will be in the range of $52 million to $55 million;
The Company expects gross margin will be in the range of 6 percent to 10 percent;
The Company expects Adjusted EBITDA will be in a range of negative $11 million to negative $15 million.<<
The market seems to be saying BKHM will not have any good news on August 3. IMO, a negative surpise will surely kill us.
A simple positive surprise, like visiblity to sustained revenue growth and declining losses, should give us a valuation more like AVNX. That would give BKHM a quick double to the $5-$7 range.
Just MHO.
BKHM is priced for bankruptcy.
Price/(tangible book):
FNSR 24
JDSU 5.9
AVNX 4.0
BKHM 1.3
Price/(current assets):
FNSR 3.6
JDSU 2.6
AVNX 1.6
BKHM 0.97
I'm not sure how the market figured out BKHM is the only one of the above four that has to worry about bankruptcy.
If the same concern hits FNSR and AVNX, look for them at price $0.72 and $0.80 respectively.
I wonder if Yahoo knows this:
From Newly2b on IHUB:
>>Apparently Ihub's volume has jumped quite significantly since the problems with the new Yahoo! boards, with an influx of new members (and Yahooligan spammers) here, causing some spiking on the servers, so Bob disabled the refresh feature and some other stuff temporarily until they can do a more permanent fix.<<
Now, if only BKHM would perform as well as an IHUB board.
I hope they were shorting more today and have doubled the short position to 6M shares. Wishful thinking.
Last time they were on the SHO list, the whole publicly known short position was only about 350k shares. It must have been all undelivered. We never did figure that out.
Thanks, Howa. That is terrible,
I'm tryin to keep some confidence and trust in management, but it is getting harder. They never really fessed up about last Q's debacle, and now they are hiding out. Great.
In a time of crisis, our leaders are AWOL. Bodes ill for next report.
Huawei pricing pressure.
From Sandyray on the Yahoo board:
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp...
Apparently a small rising tide won't be enough to help margins. We need a magnitude 8 tsunami!
We also need our old team of experts from the Yahoo board to explain how it affects BKHM.
Floppy, Mrpev, et al,...are you gone forever?
Yahoo suffering.
All the Yahoo stock boards I monitor are saying the same thing; they hate the new board format, and want the old format back.
Yahoo doesn't care. Where is Yahoo headed as a business? I would never buy a stock like YHOO, so I don't know.
I'm still hoping some good posters from Yahoo-BKHM will migrate over here.
It is a nasty mixed bag as big tech companies report. Overpriced tech is getting what it deserves. If they take RMBS down to $2, I may buy some.
Meanwhile, BKHM is cheap if revenue growth can be detected anytime soon. $55M is high guidance this Q.
Pray for good news.
BKHM lagging the Russell 2k.
If this is really the turn-around day for the markets, I don't like what I see for BKHM. No strength at all. And FNSR's move yesterday certainly didn't help.
Until today, I was holding out hope that the speculators would return to our sector. It looks like they ain't coming back.
IMO, our last hope, short-term, is to beat guidance. Longer term, we can still believe in the rising tide....can't we? Any ideas?
At least may get a good rally in the indexes: SP500 to 1350.
Hi, Navigator:
Thanks for posting and supporting the board. Let's make it work!
I see no official word from FNSR about yesterday. It looks like will have to wait until Sept 5 to see if there is bad news lurking behind the move. I hope not.
I'll be back this afternoon. Keep the board alive!
From the Yahoo FNSR board:
(Supposed email, no link, could be real)
>>16:46 FNSR The word on the stock move from the Finisar CFO )
Finally reached Finisar CFO Stephen Workman, who was at a loss to explain his cos' stock selloff today. One thing that may have contributed to the movement, Workman told us, was a "cashless earnings warning" issued to subscribers of the Stock Diagnostics service, which tracks co cash flows. Workman said he called Stock Diagnostics to ask them how they reached their conclusion. "The guy has some serious mathematical deficiencies," Workman said of the Stock Diagnostics service. "That's all I can say. I have no idea where they came out w/ their numbers. They may have been looking our GAAP results, which included a lot of non-cash charges related to acquisitions. I'm perplexed." Workman said that a "hedge fund got the ball rolling" w/ the FNSR stock selloff, selling a "large chunk." He also pointed to the stock falling through its 200-day moving average, which he speculated may have caused some technical and program selling. Workman said that he's, "not aware of anything" that would cause such a dramatic move in FNSR stock. The company is still set to report on Sept. 5.<<
Hi, Howa:
Please let us know if you get any satisfactory response.
After last Q's phony guidance and disasterous results, they should be doing everything they can to regain the confidence of shareholders and customers.
It looks like they are still dropping the ball.
I saw BKHM on the SHO list last week. Do you know the first day they were on? TIA.
Aard, thanks for checking in.
The boards here are fast, clear, efficient, etc. I like them best of all. I hope you will post some stuff!
The sell-off in BKHM is so severe, I am mystified. It seems very controlled on low volume, so maybe there is still hope for the next report.
Did bad news leak on FNSR?
The rising tide was a hoax..???
FNSR still not cheap:
The strange thing is, they have to take it down to $0.50 to match BKHM's current EV/S.