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thank for the update LOL; chutzpah!
what has happened to him? did he abandon trading altogether?
Notice that in the 10/4 post you didn't mention COO which is looking like it might want to break up thru R at 45; any reason you omitted it? TIA
J
Yesterday's Nobel Prize winner for economics, Prof Engle (NYU) - "Traditional tools of analysis assumed that volatility was constant. The techniques Prof Engle developed, particularly autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models which predicted volatility would depend on its own behaviour in the past, are now widely employed by investors and financial institutions assessing the risk of portfolios."
Zeev - is that based on your traditional autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity? Very ARCH of you (g)
That's a really interesting chart and an even more interesting commentary. 'Would it really be important in the normal scheme of things?' - Guess it depends on your definition of 'the normal scheme of things' but given that the daily chart for XAU could be interpreted (by me at any rate) as indicating a potentially signifiacnt pullback here at least, it would matter to me as a position trader; as to what it all means, the older I get the less I seem to know (although according to Wilde I must be still in middle age "The old believe everything, the middle aged suspect everything, the young know everything" - ah, to be young again.
Best
J
Gold October vs September historic performance:
Alan Williamson, precious metals analyst at HSBC, said September was a favourable month for gold. The average price movement for the month since 1990 had been a gain of $9.15 per troy ounce.
"Rather worryingly though, in the past these gains have almost always been reversed in October,".Mr Williamson said. "Only two times since 1990 has the gold price moved higher in October - in 1991 and 1993."
Buck may be poised to plunge but it's not going to go that easily - FT reports this morning that Japan spent $40 bn plus probably some since G7 in propping up the dollar and that Washington unlikely to complain too loudly as long as it needs help funding Iraq
"Forced to take on 3rd position RGLD..."
Do you have any feel for how successful a strategy that is? Understood that you don't do it as a uniform strategy and choose your double-ups (and triples) with some care but nonetheless it would be interesting to know what sort of ratio of these turn out ultimately to be winners, if you'd care to share.
TIA
J
What is OMM?
Zeev, would appreciate your thinking on COO now given rise after this week's results; would appear good value still at current level (43.50) just on P/E to expected growth basis (22 against 20); would you anticipate much of a pullback if any? Thanks much. J.
think around 22 would be a realistic p/b for ZRAN?
Talking of boring sectors like food - take a look at SLE; coming up to a breakout at 20ish on improving volume last couple of days.
$14 to $12 makes sense to me; thanks
J
would you add GYMB in there?
except a remarkably different current account situation!
any thoughts on how this last hour will go
tia
Not according to Perry Kaufman in 'Smarter Trading'; he makes the point - to quote:
"Our expectations of improved performance using small stops should be low. As the stop-loss gets smaller, the number of trades stopped out gets larger. Each time a stop-loss gets activated, there is additional slippage because the order forces an execution in the direction of market movement."
He concedes that larger stops may be different but avers that they only work with longer-term trading.
Food for thought.
J.
thinking puts? which ones would you favor here for the ndx and the spx?
tia
j
very grateful - profited from that call yesterday as i'm sure did others and hoping to do so again with intc and xlnx
on intc i think you gave 12 - 14 as the downside target a while back; do you have a target for xlnx, pls?
tia
j
thanks much - really appreciate it; my wife is a writer in pharma advertising and dna is one of their accounts
do you know what it was? couldn't find any news this am when dna sold off
tia
j
be very interested to see some reliable source for that - not trying to be clever, clever here but would like to tuck any evidence on that front away for reference
tia
j
thought it was interesting 'tho he didn't say how to identify the fakeouts from the breakouts (g)
if you've a moment let me know if you think there's an upward sloping (bear) wedge for the spx on the 15 minute chart starting from the morning of the 25th and which way you think it'll resolve
cheers
j
new highs/lows - anyone have a source or url pls?
You said over the weekend that the naz was in the middle of a selling range and I wonder if you could comment on what led you to that (evidently correct) conclusion; on the daily chart it could have looked like a consolidation in an upward direction with 1390 or thereabouts as the measured next target
thanks in advance and thanks for all the great mentoring you do here
j
EXPE 63.5 (or thereabouts) stop level one great call - how did you do that? Was it the top of the daily downchannel? However it was, congrats and thanks.
They seem pretty oracular to me; I imagine you sitting there on your tripod - please don't disillusion the supplicant
Thanks
J
<<but I have today as a turn>>
is that for the market in general? thought you said yesterday that you expected a mild bounce only (before more down was my assumption) this morning?
sorry if I'm misunderstanding
just picking up on your comment on the time decay disadvantage of options which is, of course, absolutely right... but... there are a number of advantages in using options as well and, for those taking a relatively short time frame for their trades of, say, a few days, the time factor is less of a problem, although with their wider spreads they're not as suitable for rapid intraday trades; one advantage is that there is a defined downside limit (the premium) which, in the case of puts, addresses your previously stated aversion to shorting because of the 'runaway' risk; then, with slightly out of the money entries, the loss in the event of a move in the adverse direction will tend to be less than in the case of a cash trade.
commissions of course tend to be higher and, oh!, those spreads by comparison with cash, but, not all bad if used in the right way...
rumours that AIG (or someone) planning takeover; technically looks as if it could go to 37 then 40 if it breaks 34
Goepfert's study was restricted to the Nasdaq, but my assumption would be that, as a generalisation, the same behaviour would be seen in the underlying stocks
If the question is re opening gaps and subsequent perfromance, you might find the following interesting:
"James "RevShark" De Porre
RealMoney.com
Filling the Gaps
10/18/02 11:10 AM ET
I mentioned the other day the conventional belief among technicians that gaps tend to be filled. I didn't have any statistics to back that up, but in my experience I certainly had found it to be the case.
After I wrote a bit about this Jason Goepfert, who operates a great site at www.sentimentrader.com, did a very nice study of the phenomena. Jason looked at all gaps in the Nasdaq over the past five years to see how fast they were eventually filled.
Here are his results:
Gap is Filled Within...
Same Day Five Days 10 Days 30 Days 60 Days
Up Gap (53) 40% 64% 79% 87% 94%
Down Gap (47) 36% 62% 74% 89% 93%
As you can see, a substantial number of the gaps are filled sometime during the same day, and the vast majority are filled within a month. Interestingly, gaps on both the upside and downside are filled at remarkably similar rates.
Clearly, based on this data there is a great likelihood that gaps will be eventually filled. Those gapping holes in your charts should be carefully monitored, and if we start moving in proximity to them a bet that they will be filled may be worth considering.
[As of 10/18 - Speaking of gaps, we have now filled this morning's gap down and are in the green. There is a lot of upside stickiness in this market, and I think that can be attributed to funds that may be suffering from performance anxiety. Not being invested during a rally is a sin far worse than actually losing money for the benchmark-focused giants.]"
Most grateful for these - benefitted today from your previous mention of VECO
Would you add MYG to these and if so how would you rate it comparatively to them? [Looks similar pattern on daily, perhaps a little steeper - more downside bang for the buck in non-tech as the consumer retrenches?]
J
a correction re lockerbie being a hamlet: population is over 4000 - rather more than a hamlet, i think...
Zeev, for a position trade (4-8 days) what do think of shorting EXPE if it travels sub 52? Reason for the question is that it looks like it's nearing the end of its upward 30 min wedge; earnings next Thurs I think
TIA
J
any thoughts on erts as a short around here (63.90)?
tia
wonder if you'd do the favor of explaining where the 3 higher tops were
tia