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Thank you for the info, babycakes.
I was not able to find any news anywhere...
H.
Anybody doubts that after 2 wars and a lengthy invasion the DoD considers the Iraqui Oil Wells an American property?
If they have been awarded to Chinese firms it can only be as a pay-off for something.
What, I don't know. But otherwise it doesn't make any sense.
H.
A question to anybody.
I just went into ETrade to switch from Rydex fund RYVYX to RYVNX and found out that the cut-off time was changed from 4:00PM to 3:30PM.
Anybody knows when this change took place?
Is it for all brokers that handle Rydex funds or only for ETrade?
Thanks.
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
But in the first choice - deep and prolonged depression there is a risk of revolution and total chaos, is the possibly tighter control in the long term worth the risk? Also with quicker recovery and less control even if you grab 10% from J6P you may end up more than with prolonged depression, more control and grab of say 50%.
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That's probably why they are divided...
I just made a case for the first scenario. I don't like any of them... <g>
H.
PS; So far the capacity for revolt and chaos of the american people is proven to be almost inexistent. Europe's could be something else.
The first choice implies tighter control of a larger mass of destitute common men.
The second an earlier control of governments.
H.
Yep.
Ameritrade down for me too.
H.
General Musings:
Last two big events we had a ramp-up on the rumor and sell-off on the news.
I don't expect the same thing to happen with any elimination of mark-to-market.
This is huge. If they let the banks get away with it it'll mean business-as-usual for banks for several years.
It would allow them to report good earnings, start lending again and, who knows, even start re-activating the economy.
But what do I know?
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Anyone got a guess why GS still in 80s.
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They are the Goverment...
H.
That reminds me of an old story:
There's some guy in downtown Miami jumping and yelling and the police arrives:
<policeman> Sir. What are you doing?
<guy> This is my dance to protect people from polar bears.
<policeman> Sir. There's no polar bears in Miami.
<guy> See? It works!
H.
I just looked.
it's called a "Paper Trading Account"
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/p.php?f=tws&ib_entity=llc
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you are referring to the Demo TWS, the quotes are simulated
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
You are right about the Demo Account.
But there is also an "Exercise Account" with real-time quotes.
You need to be a member and ask for it explicitly. It has its own account name and password and it works just as a normal account except it's funded with $100000 (I think) of fake money.
If you lose it all you can ask for a refill. :>
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Does IB still offer practice accounts?
Do those get real time quotes or delayed?
<<<<<<<<<<<<<
They did 3 weeks ago. (I haven't checked since)
And the quotes are real time, indistinguishable from real quotes.
H.
Wow,
the URL is more complicated than the painting!
LOL
H.
My guess of what is happening these last couple of weeks is that the bail-out money is finally starting to get into the economy.
Fundamentals are lousy. Technicals (if I'm right) reflect this influx.
And the final result would be (as always) a huge over-shoot.
Idle thoughts of an idle mind...
H.
Hi ajtj!
Same as gtober I'll also like to vouch for JimQuinceH.
I've been tracking his "calls" for several years and he's one of very few people whose calls I take seriously.
I never quantified it (I follow my own systems) but from observing it I would say 70-80%. And I'm taking into account only observations made before the fact.
Anyway, here is his latest that seems to be a bit different from the one posted above: (Not much conviction in how permanent the top is...)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33942229
This one is from Nov 21 and describes how this rally has been so far:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33725169
He has had far more specific calls than these two but I guess some times you see further out than others...
H.
I seldom posted but always followed this thread.
Saddened by Zeev's departure.
Good Bye Zeev.
Great teacher and humanitarian.
I'll miss you.
H.
lobster,
that chart is stale.
Looking at the same chart today --if the high of the day holds-- we'll have that the up movement undershoot badly and we'll have a cross downwards that projects to SPX 1475 or so. (Of course the day is not over yet)
This is the chart: (Sorry, I don't have the means to embbed the chart in the message)
http://charts.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=$Inx&data=A&date=082806&den=LOW&divd=n&evnt=off&grid=N&jav=off&size=D&sky=N&sly=Y&vol=N&late=Y&ch1=019&arga=1&argb=6&argc=&ov1=026&argd=1&arge=7&argf=&ch2=&argg=&argh=&argi=&ov2=&argj=&argk=&argl=&code=BSTKIC&org=stk
H.
woodfish,
there is nothing wrong with not trading a move.
Days like this past Friday are commonly hailed as "Great Opportunity" but that's just an eupheumism for "Very Dangerous"
These days are quite uncommon and have a tendency to break the systems we use to trade.
If you were fortunate enough to get short at any time of the day then fine: you rode the move until the end of the day.
But if not: nothing wrong with it. There's always another wave coming.
You still have your working capital and the water is fine.
(Just be double careful today as "Great Opportunity" days come in packs...)
Good luck,
H.
>>>>>>>>>>
You're filled now!!
<<<<<<<<<<
Right you are.
I returned to the position I had at the opening but with a fairly lower cost.
I have another buy at 829 (still open)
The idea is that the 0 and 100's lines are also support/resistance. If I think that a line will hold (like the zero line in this case) then I try to reverse there. (Go long)
I estimated that cci would be zero at about 831 so I placed buys at 833, 831, and 829. So far I cought only the first two. (I'd do the same thing for the 100's. The 50's don't work for me)
Of course I do this only if I think the line will hold.
If it doesn't then I have further startegies. (With added risk)
When I do this is critical to have the general direction of the market right. Airedale methods helped a lot in that area.
H.
(Again: Note to everybody: this is not NERS)
Sorry, I got the chronology wrong.
This is the correct version:
gloe,
I'm reluctant to post much because:
1) My method is mostly intuitive. (But I understand it more by trying to explain it)
2) This is a NERS board and I don't want to confuse people. (Much)
3) When it goes against me I'm in no mood to post and it looks like everything I do is great. (Hardly)
That said:
- I try to fade extremes.
- It's very important to know which way the market is heading and for that I use methods I learned from Airedale88.
For last week I had Friday as a (10w) Low. We are extremely right translated and Wed. was strong so I waited till Th. to unload the longs and start going short. Then I read your post and went heavely short. (We talked about that)
That Th. I rode the shorts all the way down and exited nicely near the lows. (Lucky)
I was flat Th. overnight. But I expected a retest of the lows. (We talked about it)
So Friday I was shorting lightly most of the day and I carried several contracts short overnight.
It paid out at Monday opening and a couple of hours into the day I closed all my shorts and declared that the easy money for the day was done. (I also decided that the "Airedale" botton was fullfilled and that the direction was up from that moment on). So during Tuesday I started slowly buying longs (and suffering) reaching yesterday close with several shorts and about 20 ticks underwater. (No big deal)
I stayed long overnight because I think the botton is past, and also had lots of faith in Intel. (I didn't know YHOO was also reporting)
Uffffff. That was a tirade.
(I just bought one long at 833.10 - I had a limit buy)
H.
New note: I have another limit buy at around 831. (Not fullfilled yet)
gloe,
I'm reluctant to post much because:
1) My method is mostly intuitive. (But I understand it more by trying to explain it)
2) This is a NERS board and I don't want to confuse people. (Much)
3) When it goes against me I'm in no mood to post and it looks like everything I do is great. (Hardly)
That said:
- I try to fade extremes.
- It's very important to know which way the market is heading and for that I use methods I learned from Airedale88.
For last week I had Friday as a (10w) Low. We are extremely right translated and Wed. was strong so I waited till Th. to unload the longs and start going short. Then I read your post and went heavely short. (We talked about that)
Friday I rode the shorts all the way down and exited nicely near the lows. (Lucky)
I was flat during the weekend. But I expected a retest of the lows. (We talked about it)
So Monday I was shorting lightly most of the day and I carried several contracts short overnight.
It paid out at Tuesday opening and a couple of hours into the day I closed all my shorts and declared that the easy money for the day was done. (I also decided that the "Airedale" botton was fullfilled and that the direction was up from that moment on). So during Tuesday I started slowly buying longs (and suffering) reaching yesterday close with several shorts and about 20 ticks underwater. (No big deal)
I stayed long overnight because I think the botton is past, and also had lots of faith in Intel. (I didn't know YHOO was also reporting)
Uffffff. That was a tirade.
(I just bought one long at 833.10 - I had a limit buy)
H.
Closed one of my overnight contracts at 836 and another at 837.
More money/risk management than HFE.
Sill long several more.
It think we go much higher but later in the day...
H..
(Note to everybody: this is not NERS)
Agreed,
but Goldman Sachs **IS** the government economic team.
They are untouchable.
(It's Good to be the King...)
H.
Gloe,
just to reach closure:
I just covered the rest of my position at 831.
This might keep going down but I'm out of the game. (For the time being, at least)
(Again: remember this is not NERS)
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You looking for a gap fill on the Qs (from the 10/5 gap up)?
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
No, not really. (Remember I don't use NERS)
I just look at the ^NDX chart of the lst 5 days and there's still too much air below the recent rebound. I imagine where the price should go to make the chart look "right" and that's roughly another move down from around here like the one we had this morning. (In ^NDX, ^RUT might only make slightly lower lows)
I understand it's too hazy to be of real use to anybody else.
Anyway I already exited half my (short ER2) position around 835. (The easy money for the day has been made)
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Rally Time?
<<<<<<<<<<<<
Mmmnnnn...
It looks like ^NDX has another -0.8% or so to go...
(Maybe later today)
H.
RUT just broke Thursday's low.
H.
yep, you are right.
This fight is still being fought.
H
This cci zero crossing that almost just happened is very important as it coincides (by design) with the downtrend from yesterday's move.
As long as we stay below the zero line we are in a downtrend and the movement from yesterday's bottom is just a bear flag with another down move to come.
If we cross the zero line with "gusto" then yesterday's was a "V" bottom and the sky is the limit...
H.
(Hint: "V" bottoms are rare.)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yes, went back up and the 5 min ch osc looks strong, but the longer time frames (120 min, 60 min, 30 min etc.) there are lots of bearish divergences.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Gloe,
that post deserves to be framed!
At the time you posted it I had exited all my ER longs near the open after 3 days of riding them up (I don't use NERS although I use it to help me read the market) and I was starting to short ER's with a lot of apprehension. (Not trusting my analysis much <g>)
When I read this it was like "Short at Will!" as I have learnt to appreciate your keen eye for reading divergences.
Four hours later --> weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee...
This board is great. Even for those of us who don't do NERS. (In my case mainly because I cannot count on being consistently watching the charts while at work...)
Thank you much.
H.
Thank you, Pinkster!
I'll wait...
H.
Anybody else is locked out of Interactive Brokers?
I don't care much. I'm short several ER's
But I'd like to cover one or two contracts just in case of a "miracle" reversal...
H.
The real reason for this "rally" is that the Bank of Japan announced "not change" in rates thus allowing for the continuation of the "carry trade"
H.
I can relate to Cruz's conclusions.
This is a fragment of something I posted a couple of weeks ago:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I'm looking for a totally automated system and NERS is not quite there yet. You might not notice it but there's a lot of subjective calls that improve performance when making your trades (even if they follow the system to the letter) and lots of "extra" information like gloe's not trading against mayor supports and resistances, etc.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=23059405
While NERS is quite good for "human consumption" a dumb computer still needs some extra help. (In a nutshell: an improved method to avoid whipsaws)
H.
Nobody talks about the pink elephant in the center of the room.
The War.
The war keeps production high and unemployment low.
There's no need to guess when the recession starts:
It will start the moment the troops start coming back home in numbers.
Sad, not-politicaly-correct, but simple and true.
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Might have to rename "LESS" to "MORE than LESS"
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
When I was tiping my post I wrote "LOSS" but I caught the error in time and fixed it. <g>
I really appreciate what you (all) are doing with NERS, and I like the way new ideas get proposed and tested.
I'm looking for a totally automated system and NERS is not quite there yet. You might not notice it but there's a lot of subjective calls that improve performance when making your trades (even if they follow the system to the letter) and lots of "extra" information like gloe's not trading against mayor supports and resistances, etc.
This is a great group.
H.
Nocona,
just for your information.
Last evening I spent some time setting up and backtesting the LESS system as you defined it. (1-minute ER2 chart, 720-cci, 2-5 EMA crosses on the 1-minute chart, 25 points cci triggers)
I got about 80 ticks for yesterday. (Which is excellent, of course) That was my control to see if we were in the same wavelength.
Then I did Sep 14th and Sep 17th. (I chose them randomly --Actually they are the first two usable days of the December contract)
They were both a disaster.
I don't have the results in front of me, but Sep-14 was something like -160 ticks with only a few >10 tick trades. Sep-17 was going the same way. (Over -100 ticks by noon when I gave up)
I tried to "massage" the system with some tricks I use but I was not able to improve it much.
I know that 3 days is a very small sample, but Sep 14,17 were so bad that it raised a flag for me.
I know it's a beauty when it works. I just wanted to give a heads up to its potential drawbacks.
H.
Nocona,
Thank you for the answer.
It sure looks like fun!
I'll keep it in mind.
H.
The lobotomy is gone.
At least he still has a pulse...
H.
diagye,
Keep in mind that this system (NERS) is optimized for ER2, not for YM.
Usually the two cross the cci lines at very different times, or one does and the other doesn't.
One thing you can do is to use the ER2 chart to generate the signals to trade the YM. (I have tried it a couple of times and it works relatively well)
Good Luck.
H