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Oh I have a question. I started shorts on home builders RYL and BZH yesterday. It seems that 50 dma with a double top will take them down. I am thinking a wave 5 down. Your thoughts please.
You are awesome. Better than your calls is your temperment. Nice to see you work.
That low P/C ratio has me thinking big dip coming but am not sure it counts in expiry week. Also IBM above its 50 dma for the first time since early this year has to be bullish. It may fill that gap in the high 90's. Many stocks testing that 50 dma. Some like CAH just kicked the crap out of it and now above 200 dma. I am a little weary of QLGC; that dip to 30 may have fulfilled your 28 target?
I went long QLGC a few measly shares on today's re-trenchment but I still see 40 as this big bad steel wall.
>>>not breach 1263, on Naz. If it does, this rally may have had it.<<<
Oh come now! That is when you will be 0% cash. You know it too well. GG
Sorry, I mistakenly thought I was responding to you. GG
AK. you are right in that there will be more revisions and more BS news like ORCL just released and hence I remain bearish and not running into my little hole. My point is that TSM news caused all the semis to build into them "in one swoop" all the bad news...for now.
I am saying that shorting the dip tomorrow, while expecting the SOX to dip to 280 may not be a profitable trade. I think shorting the SOX at much higher level may pay better with much less risk.
And so it goes to 280? What then? Right back with the same vigor it had last week. You will see 280 for approximately 2.32 minutes. All those who "missed the train" last week are not giong to sit on their hands and watch a dip; they will hitting the "buy button" with reckless abandon.
I do not think the bulls are ready to give in and settle for the break of 7000 on the DOW. They wanna see 9000 just one more time; to say goodbye of sorts becuase it may be a while till they see it again.
Of course you could wiggle wiggle wiggle daily and still do great like Zev.
SOX at 280? Come now! What is going to do that? KLAC? TSM was the last nail. Everything is build in now. I am a bear but I cannot see this KLAC news being anything more than a buying opp. Dipsters out in full force. If there is a dip tomorrow, then it will be that "scary" swoon that Zev talked about.
INTC said "we just do not see any improvement in IT spending" in the near future; the stock promptly sold off in AH and then closed the day up almost 2. Similar scenario will be played out in KLAC.
I cannot see MM just taking the market down without more distribution. Just as I could not ignore lower lows in the last few weeks, I must recognize that we have higher highs and higher lows forming in all indexes.
No stopping till DOW 9100 atleast and Naz 1500.
Good luck Patrick
Thanks that was very a very informative post. I do think that looking at turn dates and retracement levels that a pull back to 8300 is possible but I imagine that lots of stops got moved up to that level. If there is a dip below 8300 then we may see a wave of selling.
Interesting times for sure.
>>VIX is going to 10...<<<
Doesn't that guy also see the DOW going to 36,000? I remeber he turned bullish right when DOW hit 10,000 and the Naz hit 2000 this year.
Zev, do you have any dates for these targets? Many cycle guys calling for market top July 31 +/- 1-2 days. The volume was not great espically some of the homebuilders I am short (which I am slowing sinking in right now).
While the upper band of BB is at 9600 or so the fib retrace is at 9083 per my calculations. A trade above 9100 would certainly bring into play 9450 and 9900. Basically, any gap up and all bears are toast and this bear is going in search of some horns and a few more longs
Dollar doing well again; everytime dollar did well in the last 5 trading days we seen good rallies.
It sure seems like good times are here again. ggg/ng
I just cannot ignore the higher highs. I added a few long; hesitant to take a position in MERQ since it has lots of resistance at 25 level.
Also QLGC seems strangely quiet.
Wow look at them homebuilders!! One last hurrah before the swoon is my estimation.
Oh dear lord. Even before i read the article i knew what it was going to be about. Think do not change much do they?
I acutally thought that the upgrade not such a bad one afterall.
After some chart review I am even more convinced that we are at a very very critical junction; break 8350 and we can say hello to 8600 easy; otherwise back to 7500. I am also even more convinced that I have no idea; absolutely no idea, which way things are going. I just logged onto my accounts and made sue all my stops are in place and double checked them against my own chart readings.
Anon the movie was pretty good<<<
really?!!!
That really surprises me as much as the paucity of laughter at the "Goldmember" movie. I think between the 2 of us you made the better choice re: movies.
I am going to have to watch "Reign of Fire"
Awaiting your fractals for the coming week.
Joe you wrote:
..>>I feel your pain. I got the same problem with the local weather guy in trying to get some outdoor projects done. Maybe he should change his system? <<<
.<<,
LOL, haha
no pain here, just trying to learn to see if I can somehow get a beat on when the turnips may err so as to move to a more defensive position is all I was trying to do.
..I like Zeev just the way he is.<<<
Me too, but I like to pick his brain too; except sometimes it may come across as picking a quarell
>>>Mind you, I took a little more defensive position on 7/11 to "neutral" and cash position in the 40%-50% range <<<
sorry I did not realize that. I presumed that you were "fully loaded" and less than 10% cash.
I re-read my post and it can be construed as being harsh. In no way was it meant to be harsh. I was just trying to figure out whay may have gone wrong.
I light of your post regarding the corporate scandals, don't you think that there maybe more scares before that Aug.14 date that may erode away at the market sentiment and the index averages alike?
In the last 3-4 weeks your "turnips" have been dead wrong with both the targets and turn dates. (Going back to when you said a "head for the hills" call was due on any close below 1380. I do not think you satisfactorily answered those who kept bugging you about it. Maybe you had no answer
It has been easily forgiven in this board but you have to admit it certainly does not live up to your own expectations and previous record.
I am wondering if the next set of targets and dates you are presenting are a result of the same data analysis. Maybe the data you have used in your "propreietary" analysis needs to be changed and could possibly give you different results. Maybe there is some other piece of exogenous piece of data you are leaving out or maybe including some piece of inappropriate data
Just curious as what you think you think may have gone wrong in the initial analyis of your data and why do you think this time you will return to the old, more accurate "turnip".
Anyway, good luck and thanks for your informative posts. I am sure you will trade around whatever is thrown at you but some here who may not be as nimble. For example I am sure there are a lot of bagholders in QCOM from last week, and QLGC from 3 weeks ago when at 42 it was "headed to 50")
IMO, I think that there are funny things going on with that Aug 14 date and companies like BRCM, IBM, and even QCOM are not showing enough strength for a run to 1500 in 15 trading days. I think we do get to 1500 and maybe more, but it will be later in the fall and likely conciding with some political stuff.
P.S. I do not use proprietary signals. Just simple TA stuff and reading what others smarter than me (of which you are one) are writing. <GG
Reign of Fire<<
There is a 51% chance that you will not like the movie. But I am often wrong.
Wow the QCOM bulls out in full force tonight.
I guess we may yet see that 34 before Aug. 14.
I think that cycle guys still have the window open for a spike low in the next 2 days but in all likelyhood 7538 was it for this round.
Wonder if PPT will do another prop job on the bankers. C went from 38 to 25 to 29. I think the fib retrace is done.
Something fishy going on with them bankers.
>>>CCMP here at $38.93 <<<
you must have a typo. I do not see CCMP traded near $38 at 37.95 high since 10:00 am this morning.
>>> possible target of 1757 or possibly even as high as 1834<<<<
wow!!! What happened your target of 1525? I hope you are right, but I still fail to see the catalyst for such a rally. With mutual fund redemptions and margin calls coming up, I highly doubt any rally to even 1500.
Do you really think Aug. 14 date is a non-event? I really think that everytime Pitt opens his mouth about stricter standards it only serves for stocks to go lower.
I hope you are right about the rally because I have put GTC orders on DIA and QQQ.
typically, when expiration week is down,<<< I guess the think is that this hardly been a "typical" expiration week. So why would you play post expiration week as "typical"?
There was lots of selling in the DOW but tech held up "relatively" well.
I just do not see any catalyst as to how we can get to 1525. All this with Aug.14 looming large. I think there are many more bombs to fall.
I think maybe you should have given the shout out to "run for the hills" last week. Maybe it is not too late to be given this week.
Sometimes I outwit myself with too much TA. The simple fact is that previous lows did not hold and although there is plenty fear there is no panic. That is bearish, very bearish. That is as simple a TA as you can get.
I think we have lots of downside left. There is likely no rest till your targets are reached ie; IBM 40, MSFT 40, QLGC 28, and so on...
typically, when expiration week is down,<<< I guess the think is that this hardly been a "typical" expiration week. So why would you play post expiration week as "typical"?
There was lots of selling in the DOW but tech held up "relatively" well.
I just do not see any catalyst as to how we can get to 1525. All this with Aug.14 looming large. I think there are many more bombs to fall.
I think maybe you should have given the shout out to "run for the hills" last week. Maybe it is not too late to be given this week.
Sometimes I outwit myself with too much TA. The simple fact is that previous lows did not hold and although there is plenty fear there is no panic. That is bearish, very bearish. That is as simple a TA as you can get.
I think we have lots of downside left. There is likely no rest till your targets are reached ie; IBM 40, MSFT 40, QLGC 28, and so on...
typically, when expiration week is down,<<< I guess the think is that this hardly been a "typical" expiration week. So why would you play post expiration week as "typical"?
There was lots of selling in the DOW but tech held up "relatively" well.
I just do not see any catalyst as to how we can get to 1525. All this with Aug.14 looming large. I think there are many more bombs to fall.
I think maybe you should have given the shout out to "run for the hills" last week. Maybe it is not too late to be given this week.
Sometimes I outwit myself with too much TA. The simple fact is that previous lows did not hold and although there is plenty fear there is no panic. That is bearish, very bearish. That is as simple a TA as you can get.
I think we have lots of downside left. There is likely no rest till your targets are reached ie; IBM 40, MSFT 40, QLGC 28, and so on...
Anyone here have any thoughts on the home-builders? I mean they are cracking and cracking hard. I mean even when CTX posted good numbers the got taken down after a gap up. Several of the stocks have broken through the 200 dma and I expect many more will.
All thoughts appreciated
>>>Depending on how I chart, I could make a case for 1575-1600 tops, (by next Tuesday)<<<<
Damn!! Them looks like really really big horns to me. By Next Tuesday?? As in 5 trading days?? 200 points??
I sure hope you are right. I am clown long.
The way INTC is acting I think it will be tough to break Compx below 1370 or QCOM below 29. It has acted as good support and we may see a definitive break of 1405 tomorrow.
I am clown long as of yesterday.
I also think NVDA has a good chance of revisiting 25-27 range.
However your QLGC target of 50 would be great but seems like 48 would be tough resistance to break. With them reporting on 18th and the market putting in an intermediate bottom we could have another squeeze like last month of almost 10 points. Remember that? You went to bed with QLGC that night at 38 I think and you woke up and BAM!!! you were up 5 points!. Hope history repeats itself.
HAHAAHA. That is awesome.
I already "deployed" on CIEN, BRCM and BRCD. I want QLGC, but not at this price. I would love to see 35 again in the next week. The technical damage from last week should really have taken it mush lower 33. It has retraced 50% of its drop from 46 prefectly. They report on the 18th and I think they take it down hard this week and then on the release date squeeze higher very very hard.
In essence we are going to see what happened into expiration last month ie; a wiping out of all the calls. Last week finish to the DOW also suggests that the selling is not quite done and we may see 8400 beofe all is said and done. If that happens we have all indices hitting new post sept. lows and then we are off to the summer "rally".
Frankly the way MSFT has been acting I think we are in for a surprise to the downside this week by them which may be the reason for your spike.
Congratulations on your call for 1405 on Friday. That was beautiful. I hope you are right about 1296 too, that way I can finally go long.
Waiting patiently.
>>>>It is looking more and more like Sep 2001, where Zeev had his bear suit on before Hal gave a buy signal<<<<
You mean Zev had his bear suit "off" before Hal gave a buy signal?