Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I believe that Monday morning we will be seeing a very significant announcement, as opposed to the relatively weak announcements of the last couple of weeks. My best guess is Dengue in vivo results. It would not surprise me to see a $2.50 plus close. An exchange is going to need to see a new run of $2.00 closings for the uplisting. It makes perfect sense to put out the PR early next week.
What everyone is forgetting when these releases come out is they're just a set up for other announcements coming up soon. This PR is probably two to three months old, because of the QP and equity placement. The study is probably well on the way with preliminary results already known. The fact that it is being released today is a sure indicator that the results are positive.
Dr Seymour needs to get all the background news out before study results are announced. It wouldn't surprise me if Berkeley is finished with animal studies before we hear the news of the first study. This would also be true for Herpes, HIV, Ebola, EKC, etc, etc etc.
I believe that we will absolutely see a PR on Monday, but it won't be a blockbuster. If they could delay any announcements I think they would.
But Dr Seymour needs to honor his commitments to get news out, as well as support the SP. I still think they do not want to put out any major results until they have secured financing. That being said there is no doubt in my mind that the current study results/PRs he is holding back is enough to drive the stock will above $3.00
Anyone who thinks the delay is because of bad news or no news hasn't been paying attention.
I'm really hoping that the reason for the extended silence it that they're trying to find a better source of investor raher than a hedge fund. A hedge Fund won't care about the future of the company, they'll just dump the stock at the earliest opportunity.
I'd much rather see the company raise money from a warrant redemption or even alternative ways of raising money such as an ATM or private placement.
Either way I would be shocked if there isn't some announcement by Monday
The reason why is that the company needs the money now. Not when the stock is at 3.50 or 4. The deal is most probably already done. Any institutional entity would want a 20 to 25 percent discount to market as well as warrant coverage.
Having $40 million in the bank is well worth any dilution that may result. Hopefully they were able to raise the money through private equity as opposed to Hedge Funds that may be looking to turn a quick profit.
One thing I learned a long time ago is that I'm not very good timing these type of companies. I am happy just sitting and watching the company mature. I went through the highs and lows of Centocor (cntc) and Amgen (amgn) 20 years ago and it worked out pretty well.
Today it is Neurostem (cur) and nnvc, both companies have great technology and amazing potential, Neurostem was just featured on CNN by Sanjay Gupta.
Dr Seymour will put the first press release out Monday or Tuesday, but I'm wondering how much of the current SP is already built on the anticipation of the news. There might be some early sell off.
I'm sure he is completely backlogged with PRs, but I think there is certain news that the market is waiting to make a significant move. Especially Herpes, HSV, EKC, Dengue
I read an earlier post that animals don't equal humans, which is true. But a virus is a virus whether it's in a mouse, a rabbit, a monkey, or a human. That's what makes this technology so amazing.
I would look for:
Herpes of the eye rabbit results
Dengue results out of Berkeley and a possible announcement of the next phase (animal study)
Announcement of next phase of HIV study
Those would seem to be the most "pressing" right now
It will be interesting to see how these are spaced out
I agree 100%. There would be way too much risk in waiting for the stock price to go up, besides as investors we would always say "wait for the stock to go up a little more before you raise the money". There's never a good time.
By raising the $40 million now the company will be in a much stronger position. As a long time investor does it really matter in the short term if the stock takes a short term hit? Any dilution will be inconsequential as the company grows up.
The company needs the money right now!!! Having $40 million on their balance sheet will be worth many more million when negotiating with other companies.
I am willing to bet that we see an announcement in the next seven to ten days that the placement had been completed. We will need strong company PRs to keep the stock price moving in the right direction.
The question is how much of the news has already been figured into the current stock price.
It wouldn't surprise me if the quiet period ends today. But I don't expect to see any PR until Monday and that will probably just be the announcement. We probably wont see study results until Tuesday.
It wouldn't surprise me if he has at least some or all of the investors lined up right now.
Here is what would make the most sense for both the company and investors. A 10% to 20% discount to a recent trading range and somewhere around 20 to 25% warrant coverage. There is no way and no need to issue anything other than common so any concerns about this are completely unfounded.
I still believe that the company will attempt to raise all the money at one time and not participate in multiple offerings.
I think the shelf price will be as close to market price as possible along with warrant attachments, probably 1 for 1. There might be a small discount to market.
I just hope it will be a private investor placement and not institutional. We are most likely to see the shares flipped if they are taken down by a hedge fund or similar entity.
I agree, Dr Harris' travel schedule most certainly had slowed the reporting of the in vitro studies even prior to the current quiet period. I would imagine the results are now available for publication when possible and would hope they would announce the in vivo study concurrently or shortly after.
I am actually more interested in hearing the Herpes of the eye results more than anything. The impact of a viable Herpes treatment alone would be tremendous.
By the way, I liked your Stephen Toulmin reference the other day. I teach Persuasive Speaking as well as Argumentation & Debate and that was a name I don't see too often outside the classroom. I saw him speak at Stanford many years ago and had a chance to meet him afterwards. He was a brilliant man.
I count that they should have results back from at least 6 different studies in addition to announcements for new ones including HIV and the next phase of U.C. Berkeley/Harris (animal testing). I would imagine that Dr. Seymour will space out the PR's over a number of weeks and include news of the stock offering sandwiched within when completed. There is no reason for him not to complete the entire offering at one time.
I just read a report of humanitarian testing in Africa for terminally ill patients. This would seem to make sense for NNVC as well.
I have been following this company for a number of years and have recommended it to a number of friends, family and business associates. I'm a hero today, but was almost run out of town a year ago. This recent gain is fun to watch, but isn't that important to me. I have never sold a single share and don't plan on it for a while. There is a long way to go.
I believe they are going to go after all $40 million at one time and sooner rather than later. The last thing they are going to want to do is go to the well multiple times.
The challenge will be to incorporate the release of test results with the announcement so there is not excessive pressure on the SP.
The company is probably sitting on upwards of ten PR's right now.
I think that the quiet period will last at least until the end of next week or the following week. SEC is very slow these days.
It wouldn't surprise me if they raised all $40 million in one shot so the stock doesn't take a series of hits and to just get it out of the way. I'm sure the money will be used for expansion and creating some infastructure. The company is going to need to hire additional scientists, and eventually other employees, PR, Marketing, etc. Dr Seymour won't be able to do everything by himself eventually.
In addition it is very expensive to get past the FDA. This will give them bargaining power in negotiating with other pharmas
I have done some research on this company. I believe that the real value is not with the business model, but actually in the patents and technology they own. Might be an acquisition play for another company (ebay, amazon, etc.)
Did any one catch Dr Harris' profile on Wikipedia?
Her Bio mentions the research agreement with NNVC.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Harris
Nanoviricides Inc
$ 1.35
NNVC
0.01
Short Interest (Shares Short)
259,600
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
1.0
Short Percent of Float
0.36 %
Short Interest - Prior
265,300
Short % Increase / Decrease
-2.15 %
Short Squeeze Rankingâ„¢
0
% From 52-Wk High ($ 1.38 )
-2.22 %
% From 52-Wk Low ($ 0.41 )
69.63 %
% From 200-Day MA ($ 0.90 )
33.33 %
% From 50-Day MA ($ 1.08 )
20.00 %
Price % Change (52-Week)
119.00 %
Shares Float
72,639,457
Total Shares Outstanding
131,910,584
% Owned by Insiders
15.90 %
% Owned by Institutions
%
Market Cap.
$ 178,079,288
Trading Volume - Today
237,830
Trading Volume - Average
268,600
Trading Volume - Today vs. Average
88.54 %
Earnings Per Share
-0.02
PE Ratio
Record Date
2010-FebB
Sector
Services
Industry
Research Services
Exchange
BB
I've been tracking all these possible "flu Cure" companies. The only one that look like they have any real potential are NNVC and BCRX.
NNVC actually looks like the much better play, because they have multiple drugs in their pipeline
The issue is not who or how many people Gene made his comments to,it is the questions of material inside informattion. Telling someone about a large trade that he heard about is not material inside infomation, but available to everyone. Telling someone that there is nothing new, I would call material inside non-information. There is no doubt that he should be cautious about his comments, but he did absolutely nothing wrong.
sent
I have a copy of the presentation today if anyone would like it let me know
I'm not sure whether NNVC was really on most pharms radar screens. It wouldn't surprise me if they made the first contact, which would be very common and are just looking for some level of interest from various companies at this point. I wouldn't look for a big payday anytime soon. It's pure speculation to think that they are going to receive millions at this point.
I'm also not sure if the recent release is really that big of a deal, which is why the stock didn't jump more. I put in a fairly large order on Friday and the bid/ask jumped, but volume was light. I am convinced that they must be sitting on bigger news or have an indication of results to be released. We'll probably see a number of announcements in the next several weeks. The last time I saw a company wth this much potential was cntc way back in 1988, but it's going to be a up and down ride. They're going to need to raise money several times to keep going. But this will be a $100 in the not too distant future.
I've been reading these posts for some time now and the rampant speculation is amazing. I have been following this company since the early days and have watched their progression and growth. If you read the press releases closely there is almost always clues or a hidden message of things to come.
I seriously doubt they are speaking with Pfizer or similiar pharms. My guess is it's going to be a company that has a history in eye care, possibly Allergan, Alcon or Novartis.
Either way I am willing to bet we will be hearing a lot from NNVC in the next few weeks