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4:15 pm sort of reversed his position of double bottom on bloomberg.
barton biggs just reversed himself and said new lows on S&P would lead to another round of world wide selling. He was on bloomberg and more or less told everyone to sell. He didnt project downside of new range with high of 8000 on dow and i guess 800+ on SP
Difference was that then market was a bubble at very high PEs. Today on CNBC, they said we were 9X next years projected earnings after paring those estimates to the bone. OTOH, last time economy was going strong and this time we are just entering deflationary recession with a banking and housing collapse to boot. I put my money if i had any left on Buffett----not warren, but Jimmy in Marguerritaville. (g) Actually both buffets views are fine by me.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djhighlights/200804090044DOWJONESDJONLINE000022.htm
what do you think about his prediction wahz?
i am thinking tomorrow is very important today to set up next week. Either we have bottomed or not. Another test of 11,7 or a move up to 12,7?????
do you mean oversold...bad day at black rock. fading fast at close. second 400 point gain with 90% upside failing and no news today. Should i be concerned???
Do the point and make it clear that thats it and the last two points will be kept dry. I wonder if there will be any coordinated efforts with the euros to strengthten the dollar? They should really cut rates themselves at least 1/2 point and someone should start buying dollars.
Someone said today that the US dollar would replace the yen in the carry trade. Any idea what that really means???
isnt direct access for investments banks to the fed window effectively prevent another beartastrophe? Bear was too far gone and/or BB was way too slow on seeing what was coming. For the rest of them, i think they are OK.
boy it got real quiet here today. If it wasnt for bear, market would have been up 150 based on cpi.
Buzz is that there was big bsc put buying yesterday at $30, ostensibly by JPM, who knew what was going to transpire today. Before this came out this morning and after the CPI number was released, i called the bottom while speaking to my wife. 10 minutes later the market made me Mr. Ass again. I still think i will be proved right but also think that we might be only one bank away from new lows.
todays comeback is so sweet. Was there any news that changed things? Left for a business meeting and came back to what amounts to a 300 point reversal today.
"eviscerated"
bears evicerated...
Is there really a reason for stocks to go up at this time? I know its always bleakest at the bottom and the sentiment indicators seem to be screaming a bottom. I think the problem might be that while folks say we are entering the last phase of the credit/housing crisis, perhaps we are also entering a new phase of shrinking retail and job activity that is just starting. CW says fed will get us out of this with low rates and targeted action. I dont know if that will be enough. Fiscal stims come in may but probably will have only marginal effect.
i dont know if market can sustain a rally unless gold and oil bubble burst. For that to happen, something has to happen to rally dollar for real. Gold hit 1000 and oil $110 today. If euro economy is slowing, it would be a real good thing for rate cuts over there. They have as much interest in stopping the dollar from free falling as we do. Its time they carried some of the water. I thought the fed action would have done more to stop dollar fall. Now i am thinking whats missing is the perception that US economy will rebound any time soon. We might need more fiscal stimulus for this and more fed action to relieve credit crunch. 1/2 point coming next week but that wont help dollar unless euros help and growth scenarios reaapear.
Now if only sarbanes and oxley can be caught with prostitutes, we will really be off to the races.
Now if only sarbanes and oxley can be caught with prostitutes, we will really be off to the races.
can we be sure this same guy hasnt sold since his last purchase or is he in it for the duration?
Can you please throw some info my way on Legatum. First i have heard the name.
Can you please throw some info my way on Legatum. First i have heard the name.
down 7+% in ah
Unless one is trading this volatility and knows how to do it, one should stay away from this market altogether unless making long term bets, dollar cost averaged in.
Bad news is that market will drag along ocean bottom for awhile. Good news might be that the bottom is in. More U than V and then the real rally????
tanking at eod. thought yesterday we might have reversed this tradition.
great minds think alike. Mike Bloomberg in last weeks speech criticizing the candidates spoke to this issue as well. We need an influx of new blood into this country at the highest of educational levels. Our education stinks and we have a loss in growth of college degrees. We need to fix that too but first things first. And housing demand is only a small benefit of what these folks will bring us.
still got to live somewhere and remember just as with clothing styles of homes change. Our population isnt going down and will be buoyed by increased legal immigration (i predict). I can see a time where some of the older housing stock is bulldozed for new developments or to return them to farmland or wilderness or for businesses.
and they will plummet because????
i sort of agree. i think it will take some time dragging along the bottom. Maybe more U than V. I think fed is doing everything right now. Rebate checks will flow thru the system and do some good. The muny insurers will survive and at some point we will get a good rally in munis. Either buffet or the split up of mort based and munis will occur.
That leaves housing mess that is about half way thru the BOA. This will slow growth for some time but consumer aint dead. Even those folks who lose their homes will be living in much cheaper rented housing. Now if we could really get oil to crash, things would really look good.
I dont think this is worse for market confidence than 2002 (yet). I think its the real estate market in combo with consumer slowdown and market fall that does it. 2002 stands with 1929.
OK Wahz---time for you to comment. With this bear market i guess we are in as well as this recession we seem to have entered, what are your new forecasts for the market? I still am hoping that this is all part of the bottoming process. Two things are at work here---a credit crisis that wont go away and seemingly is spreading counteracted by fed and congress actions that have worked in the past. I guess the eco question is will recession be deeper and longer than the last one and by how much.
you cant get blood from a stone. We are talking about folks with little or no assets for the most part.
Most of them have already rented new accomodations at a fraction of the price. My uncle has a cond in FL that is down over 50% in value. He is in a nursing home now and on medicaid and his home equity line which financed a bunch of medical issues is used and he will abandon his property which is securred by a prime loan. The problem is not as much the type of loans but the crashing property values. Where RE has crashed and banks dont want the property, they should refi at lower rates and at a loan amount that reflects market conditions. Accept the property price decline to retrieve half a loaf is better than owning all this worthless property.
would give it up myself for 50% rise in markets.
would give it up myself for 50% rise in markets.
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2008/02/still-at-the-fo.html
scary stuff. This is the fear that is really behind decline.
cramer on cisco and tech. companies good but stocks bad. He even mentioned $11 for cisco which was 02 low. Dead money at best he says. Recession coming to europe next and tech earnings will continue to disappoint.
International Paper CEO said we were doing a good job of talking ourselves into a recession.
cisco now joins the chips as a value stock. The real question is where we rally from and whether we ever are viewed as growth again. If not the lows 30s where we all thought csco was a screaming buy may be the new top. Are all of our stocks destined to be viewed as value now?
HLIT last week. I can understand homebuilding, banking, the insurers but cant understand why tech gets killed when both earnings and guidance is not bad.
Disney up over 5% in AH. Cnbc saying earlier that disney earning important possible confirmation of upcoming downturn. i guess things are better again. This is impossible to judge.
are you able to lay charts over 90-91 period to get a feel whether we are in the same place as when it bottomed then?
To wahz and the thread. A few minutes ago, Pisani said traders were comparing this market to the 90-91 market. As i remember that market decline was also caused by a financial crisis that morphed into a recession. We all know what followed in the 90s so keep the faith i guess. My question is to the skilled folks on this thread who can compare these two decline and tell us where they think we are now---in the middle, toward the end but poised to make a new bottom, or at the bottom now beginning the test of that bottom.