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KGC - Somebody screwed up!
To all traders
Tue Feb 4 09:39:12 2003 EST
***URGENT*** ***URGENT*** ***URGENT***
Customers with positions in Kinross Gold (KGC)
Echo Bay (ECO) & TVX Gold (TVX) may experience problems due to a corporate action. Please contact customer service regarding your account.
*************************************************
Anybody get this. It looks the the reverse split price took affect with brokers not adjusting the share #!
Is there anyway brokers can get out of this trade execution?
I unloaded my shares pre split. But 2 people on boards I follow took advantage of the arbitrage yesterday.
caddman
Yes...TC will import TT previous year info.
Also it can import financial data from Money, Quicken, and Deduction Pro.
I have used TC for 8 years now. Love it and it is usually cheaper than TT when adding in all the rebates.
This year rebate for $20, plus rebate for free State version.
caddman
Which Bush speech has not sparked selling? <g>
caddman
(market analysis only)
Maybe because:
Underfunded Pension = 19 Billion
Underfunded Ret Health Ben = 59 Billion (Est.)
0% Fin has reduced margin per vehicle
2003 is going to be a nasty contract negotiation year with UAW
Continued job weakness/consumer confidence will probably start hitting in 2003.
4 Qtr's in a row of increased short and longterm debt
4 Qtr's in a row of decreasing value in tang. assests
It make take all of 2003's free cash flow to satisfy debt service.
caddman - looking for bounce to enter short. Missed my chance when it touched 40.
GTW - Taken out and shot!
I had been in this one since 2.91 and been selling Covered calls since.
This morning it is toast.
Thanks to all the posters and to Zeev for his work. I do not post much but do read the board regularly. It is well worth the lifetime membership.
caddman
Yeah...and an interview I saw last Friday on the news had a Canadian watchdog group crying that the Canadian military was down to 55,000 men TOTAL!
They pulled out of Afghanistan because they didn't even have another rotation.
Train Guy,
Where is it available or what symbol do you use to track PREM?
caddman
"Geez, has any body stopped to think what this continued meltdown in the equity markets means for this country economically and for our well being. It's going to effect us all eventually."
Oh yea...I have thought about it. Could be very very ugly. Depression was very bad and hurt many many people. Now try unleashing similar scenario on a "spoiled brat", overextended generation.
Caddman
(not wanting anything like this to happen, but won't be surprised if it does)
WLD,
You are correct. 23-25 is wide open for this week. To me there is just too much down sentiment on the FA side to see us hit 23. Maybe ORCL gives us the boost though.
caddman
I agree. Absolute Max Pain is 24.
But Max Pain does not have to be absolute. If you look at the diagram iqAuto produces, 23, 24 and 25 strikes offer very little measurable difference to the rest of the strikes expiring worthless.
But today there are more calls on 23. Moving to 23 puts them in the money and gives them a little value.
My guess is that we don't see QQQ 23 this week. Just under it. And no, we won't collapse to 22. That would put 121k puts in the money! (vs 52k calls)
caddman
Usually the Max Pain price can be determined 2 weeks before options expiry. This is not to say the max pain may no change slightly if puts or calls start to build up on a particular strike.
The object of Max Pain is to touch the price where most options expire worthless during the last week before options expire since there is very little time value left. iqAuto shows the absolute Max Pain value of ALL options. But eyeballing the near-the-money positions helps.
QQQ Max Pain is 24...but why let the 23 calls be in the money when they outweigh the puts? IMHO we do not touch QQQ 23 this week.
So if you are a big player and you sell calls and puts, you want to cover them at lower prices. Max Pain let's these positions get covered.
Some say this is manipulation, others say it is a natural price movement phenomenon. Either, it is very effective.
caddman
Max Pain only has to touch the Max Pain point during expiry week to be effective. Like last months QQQ's.
Right now Max Pain is officially 24, but if you look at the option chain you can see that there are more calls than puts at 23. I don't think we touch 23 this week! Don't have too. Max Pain damage to options is done.
caddman
Bob,
We are suffering from the "last mile" wiring effect. I literally have a 1", yes 1" Fiber Optic line that is buried a half mile from the house. Data is flying through it just to drive me nuts. So close but yet so far. I think that if there is ever another big techno push, it will be to get all homes wired for high band width applications. Internet or multimedia, whatever the homeowner wants to purchase. Until then, there is a lot of middle America that will not be able to purchase services that require bandwidth.
By the way, great sight. Lurked on SI but bought the membership here when Zeev switched.
Caddman
(Scott)
Bob,
I live in an area that sounds similar to you outside of Indianapolis. The small town I live in does not have the population to justify Sprint upgrading the CO. Our school (yes it is K-12) has high speed access. I inquired as to how. The CO will not support T1, even if I would pay.
The school corporation admin. offices could get T1. So they microwave the data transmission to the school. It looks like they have a 24" x 16" directional attena. I do not know about the technology, but this may be an option if you could get someone to share their T1.
This is probably an expensive option.
I wish 3G wireless would start being implemented, but the FCC seems to be dragging its feet regarding spectrum rights.
caddman
incognito
They sure are! I am an example of this...
I have money, am willing to spend some, would like a nice midsized 16:9 digital screen. I might even pony up for a PLASMA (sweeeeet)
But, no way will buy any TV until this is settled.
caddman
HDTV now seems to be a joke. Movie studios want some type of encryption on the display so that movies that play on TV cannot be recored since the whole process is digital there is no generational quality lost like VHS tapes. They are trying to prevent a black market for programs recorded with DVD recorders
If they succeed it would render all the currently sold HDTV "compatable" sets useless...
Not very good for PR. Customers are clueless. I am not buying a new digital set until all this is worked out!
caddman
THIS IS NOT A HELP DESK!
After several questions yesterday about the auto-refreshing you think you would have picked up on the answer by now!
IHUB is not a complicated site...do a little digging. Kind of like do you own due diligence before making trades.
caddman - tired of the same old question with the same old answer!
Bob,
Just subscribed as a lifetimer today. Lurked only on Zeev's SI board and followed him here.
Reopened browser and all adds are gone...just as advertised!
Locally (Indianapolis) I get slowdowns on my DSL around lunch and at 3:00 when school is in session. (kids come home and get on Internet) Nothing that I would attribute to your site though.
caddman
Don't jump out of a window just yet. gg
Copied from my Datek indicies screen...
Monday, 15 July 2002
10:38:25 am
DJIA 852.89 -7831.64
NASDAQ 1361.77 -11.73
S & P 500 502.56 -418.83
Wish I was short Diamonds! ggg
Geesh...I wish they would fix this.
caddman
Zeev...shhh...we are playing dead in the water (g)
Don't let the MM's hear...g
caddman
JUL 26 QQQ Calls - This morning 113K Open Interest
2:20 only 92K
They are wiping them out.....
Deflation, an economic phenomenon that very few people understand, even myself. Why is it not understood? Because those that actually experienced it are now passed or they were much to young to grasp what was happening around them fully. Now a generation is facing the prospect of real deflationary pressure.
Economists, politicians, businessmen and the public are taught that inflation is the rule. Controlling the rate of inflation to reasonable levels provides stable economic growth for the good of all. Business cycles will naturally swing, allowing periods of higher or lower rates of inflation. But it is always inflation. Entire governing bodies like the Federal Reserve System are devoted to controlling the money supply in order not to let inflation get out of hand. During the 1990's we enjoyed a long stretch of low inflation. This helped exaggerate the wealth effect. With consumer staples? prices very stable, many began enjoying higher standards of living.
Deflation is now what needs to be fought. Why? Aren't falling prices good for consumers? Yes, to a point. But what if the product or service you offer was valued so little in terms of price, you were forced out of your career? In the short run, falling prices can help consumers. In the long run, deflation destroys. For example, my wife's company has contracted with a large office supply firm for all of their supplies. Their contracted rate for a staple puller, yes the lowly staple puller, is 9 cents! You may say, "who cares about a stupid staple puller"? Well sure no big deal in the grand scheme of things, but how long will it be before manufacturers just simply say it is not worth the effort to make them anymore. At some point they will not be available. And there lies the problem. Deflation causes the business cycle to grind to a screeching halt. It simply is not worth producing an item or service if the price is not high enough to sustain the business.
Technology is currently suffering the most. Computers and electronic equipment get so cheap so fast that it almost pains anyone to buy a PC for their home. Faster, better, cheaper is only about two months away. And you still have the credit card bill! Why do we not have a high-speed fiber optic connection to every home yet? Because there is no way to profit from capital and labor investment involved. Printers are now so cheap that they are given away with PC's. Even the lowly eMachine has free Lexmark Z25 bundled this week. Printer manufacturers hope to make money off of the ink cartridges. Makes some sense, that is a recurring revenue stream. Along come refill kits, now manufactures have to imbed chips in the cartridges to disable them. Manufacturers are in court defending this practice. If they lose, why should they even bother to manufacture printers, for the good of mankind? There has to be a profit, somewhere.
Other industries are also beginning to suffer from a lack of pricing power. How long will it be before the actual price of automobiles starts to fall? When the buyers dry up from the 0% financing offers, the automakers will be forced to drop prices (in essence this has started in the form of rebates) to get the vehicles moving off of the showroom floor. It is either that, or they give up producing the auto. As this spreads, it will eventually start hitting real wages. The economy will no longer be able to support the size and previous earning power of the workforce.
Businesses are already sliding down the slippery slope searching for earnings. Look at Sears. Why do they or any other retailer get involved in revolving credit financing? Is it because the market was not efficient enough to provide revolving credit lenders? No, Sears is trying to find a way to make some money! There is no longer enough markup in merchandise. I do it in my occupation. As markups decline, commissions decline. Now I have third party lenders that want me to recommend them to the clients. OK, but only if you cut me in on a portion of the leased amount! So not only do I sell the product that I am an expert in, I also sell financing!
The market is already, in my opinion beginning to reflect this. Most do not realize it yet. Television analyst spout on about how the economy is recovering, and the market will turn any day! Sure, GDP can rise. This is just the total output of goods and services produced. But if there is little or no margin, then earnings, which really drive the long term market, we go nowhere.
This is a summation of about 18 months of examining the economy, markets included. It is not pretty, I know. I am not a defeatist, nor do I suffer from depression. Just trying to chart out an economic plan. As I told a former coworker regarding office issues at the time, "I don't like things to happen to me. I like to be the one the makes them happen." Be prepared.
caddman
Thanks Softechie for the article.
As long as they booked offsetting expenses then they actually understated their margin.
I just do not see the issue here. Believe me, for those that post/read Mish's board on Fool, I am not a perma-bull by any means.
caddman
Looking to make money, long or short.
To all,
MRK has booked insurance co-pays as revenues. They also expensed these. So from my understanding they overstated revenues and overstated expenses. They actually understated their margin %.
If this is the case, I do not see how this is a "scandal."
Am I incorrect?
caddman
Zeev,
I am over here now. I have enjoyed reading and following your previous board. I post mainly on Mish's board on the Fool. I was actually just about to sign up for SI so I could post. Mute point now.
Thanks for all your help and insight.
caddman