Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Only green with envy at your trading prowess! (g)
caddman
OT - Mishedlo's Dad
Thanks for all you comments, public and private. All were posted on Mishedlo's full time board at the Fool.
Thanks,
caddman
I am with you
Short at 2000.53...for a swing
Just printed 2000.02
caddman
**OT**
Zeev,
Thought I would let you know that Mish's father died the other day.
To those on the board, Mish is your Max Pain analyst. His board on the Fool is where he post most often, but still reads this board and many on SI.
caddman
I will copy any sympathies on the Mish's board at the Fool that anyone posts.
Feel good now...pay later!
Visa: Post-Holiday Sales Rise 12 Percent
Sun November 30, 2003 04:40 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Visa USA reported on Sunday that spending on its credit and debit cards for the two days following Thanksgiving, traditionally two of the year's biggest U.S. shopping days, rose 12 percent to $6.5 billion.
Visa said retail spending on its cards was up 9 percent to more than $3.4 billion. The number of e-commerce transactions jumped 46 percent and online sales reached $338 million.
Analysts tracking the U.S. economic recovery are looking for signs that consumer confidence is strengthening as the big holiday season approaches.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Saturday that sales at its U.S. stores reached $1.52 billion on Friday, up from $1.43 billion a year earlier.
Officials at MasterCard International, Visa's main rival, were not immediately available for comment on Sunday afternoon.
mainhiker,
If you could just tell me WHEN the consumer is REALLY exhausted...it would be very much appreciated.(vbg)
The debt service people are paying monthly boggles my mind. Even among our friends...everyone denies that they may not be able to earn their current income.
caddman
They are! VISA/MC reported a 9% rise in purchasing!
I believe WMT said sales increased in the mid 5's% for the weekend.
Mosis is just adding more debt.
caddman
It is really worse than released.
ADSK is very focused on channel sales.
We are a dealer. Some dealers, especially in multiple dealer areas, will not be offered contracts in January. Those dealers will either close doors or let that staff go, if they sell other products.
I sell lots of ADSK products when Architects & Engineers are designing buildings and subdivisions. The largest segment ADSK sells to, is manufacturing design. I do not specialize in that area.
We have been scraping to make our quota...
caddman
EB,
LRT seems to be running into resistance at $4.00. Is if fully valued? I took position for the royalty at $3.63, so not a big deal.
However PGH broke through 13.80 after two attempts. CAD $ apprecitation?
Looking for opinion, you seem to be up on the natural gas plays.
caddman
Larry,
Now you did it! (g)
WAVX at 2.40 bid
caddman
Any news on PGH? I don't see anything
-0.24 today
It broke through a double top at 13.79 yesterday.
**OT**
COLTS WIN! COLTS WIN!
caddman
(I could not believe it either. I turned off the game when Tampa scored 35...another blown chance by the Colts to prove that they can play with the elite...almost wrecked my car on the way to the office...)
Dan,
I think our defense will do well against the Buc offense. But your defense is just plain SCARY!!!
The Colts and Manning need this to get over the hump of joining elite teams. They need to prove they can go to the champs house and put it to them...
Too bad the Saints game was so easy...complacency is not good.
caddman
(Why am I rooting for the LA Colts?)
Colts are for real baby!!!!
caddman
(from my northside Indianapolis office)
Zeev,
Road map for tomorrow? Reactionary bounce until mid morning with mosis on strike again?
caddman
You are right...no retrenchment.
With all due respect to the Turnips, Jim Cramer was on CNBS, After the Bell and was looking for a good retrenchment and encouraging people to lock in some gains.
Jim Cramer...ultimate contrarian!
caddman
Presidential years continued...
It was late last night. Patience...
Year OPEN CLOSE HIGH LOW Up/DOWN
1952....269.....292.....292.....256...UP
1948....181.....177.....193.....165...DOWN
1944....135.....152.....152.....134...UP
1940....151.....131.....152.....111...DOWN
1936....144.....180.....184.....143...UP
1932.....74......60......88......41...DOWN
1928....203.....297.....297.....191...UP
I was trying to stick with the "post war economy" for comparisons.
caddman
Presidential Election Years DJIA
Year OPEN CLOSE HIGH LOW UP/DN for year
2000 11357 10786 11722 9796 Down
1996 5177 6560 6560 5032 UP
1992 3172 3310 3412 3136 UP
1988 2015 2182 2183 1879 UP
1984 1252 1204 1286 1086 Down
1980 824 960 1000 759 UP
1976 858 994 1014 858 UP
1972 889 1020 1036 889 UP
1968 906 952 985 825 UP
1964 766 862 891 766 UP
1960 679 616 685 566 Down
1956 485 496 521 462 UP
Looks like the UP's have it.
caddman
Genuis...I don't know. But 32%+ annually for 10 years. Except maybe this year.
caddman
Hedge Fund Capitulation
FWIW: The hedge fund manager who is down the hall from my office, is throwing in the towell. He was short in March, covered in April and stayed in cash through the whole runup. Now is looking for more upside, especially in small and mid caps.
caddman
Now can the correction start?
www.dslreports.com
caddman
Commodity Funds
Any funds out there that are pure commidity plays? i.e. not invested in commodity companies, but funds that invest in commodity positions.
I heard that Jim Rogers has a commodity fund that invests in commodities.
TIA
caddman
The problem we face regarding deflation/inflation:
Every thing that we NEED is inflating - supply/demand + Taxes
Every thing that we WANT is deflating - over supply
Our homes can only hold so many TV's, VCR's, DVD's, Game consoles, PC's, etc.
Governments learned a long time ago to tax our needs becuase the demand is less elastic than wants.
caddman
PROOF OF PPT!?
PPT = ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund)
TITLE 31--MONEY AND FINANCE
SUBTITLE IV--MONEY
CHAPTER 53--MONETARY TRANSACTIONS
SUBCHAPTER I--CREDIT AND MONETARY EXPANSION
Sec. 5302. Stabilizing exchange rates and arrangements.
(a)(1) The Department of the Treasury has a Stabilization Fund. The fund is available to carry out this section, section 18 of the Bretton Woods Agreement Act (22 U.S.C. 286e-3), and section 3 of the Special Drawing Rights Act (22 U.S.C. 286o), and for investing in obligations of the United States Government those amounts in the fund the Secretary of the Treasury, with the approval of the President, decides are not required at the time to carry out this section. Proceeds of sales and investments, earnings, and interest shall be paid into the fund and are available to carry out this section. However, the fund is not available to pay administrative expenses.
(2) Subject to approval by the President, the fund is under the exclusive control of the Secretary, and may not be used in a way that direct control and custody pass from the President and the Secretary. Decisions of the Secretary are final and may not be reviewed by another officer or employee of the Government.
(b) Consistent with the obligations of the Government in the International Monetary Fund on orderly exchange arrangements and a stable system of exchange rates, the Secretary or an agency designated by the Secretary, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities the Secretary considers necessary. However, a loan or credit to a foreign entity or government of a foreign country may be made for more than 6 months in any 12-month period only if the President gives Congress a written statement that unique or emergency circumstances require the loan or credit be for more than 6 months.
(c)(1) By the 30th day after the end of each month, the Secretary shall give the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs of the Senate a detailed financial statement on the stabilization fund showing all agreements made or renewed, all transactions occurring during the month, and all projected liabilities.
(2) The Secretary shall report each year to the President and Congress on the operation of the fund.
(d) A repayment of any part of the first subscription payment of the Government to the International Monetary Fund, previously paid from the stabilization fund, shall be deposited in the Treasury as a miscellaneous receipt.
Sounds about right. But they forcasted 1 million by the end of the year. They are ahead of that projection so far.
You can start with $19B in unfunded pension liability...
Current pension assumed earnings is over 9%...(a little rosy?)
caddman
Watch them close S&P right at 999.99<G>
OT - Trading Software
Any comments on the following? I have demo some of these. Just looking for comments before buying.
OmniTrader
MetaStock
VectorVest
QCharts
Other -
Just follow Zeev(g)!
TIA
caddman
Please do not interpet my like for the service as my like for the stock. I am just trading it.
Car kit is DC.
Home kit is AC.
I was in at 5.60 - suffered through the 3.50's
Got called out at 5.00 on 1/2 of position, from covered calls.
short May 7.50 calls (covered), long Jun 7.50 puts.
If we fill the gap at 7.00 then my 1/2 position will be FREE and I will probably keep it in my core. If it stays volatile then it is a perfect stock to sell calls.
If we don't, I am called out at a profit of 1.90 plus call premium received. Puts will hurt, but have another month for pullback.
caddman
Get the Delphi receiver with the Home Kit. 100 plus channels. Just need to have the antenna with clear sky to the south.
Music for all tastes, comedy and major cable news channels. They even have a new PC receiver. Go to their website.
Brinker is looking good right now. The indicators I use said to "buy" about the same time. I just don't know if I would have said this was my MOABO. He better be right on the exit to stay in business. <g>
caddman
I am in sales. Commute is about 1/2 hour, but the 3-5 hour road trips a couple of times a month, did it for me.
Talk radio junkies will love it! Hey even Bob Brinker is on in clear digital signal.<g> Now will all the Brinker followers finish buying the MOABO call so the Nassacre can begin<GGG>!
caddman
Commercial free cracks me up. XM has very few commercials. Most commercials are from TV commercials, because they broadcast TV channel audio. Local commercial time is filled with their own spots.
I can listen to CNBS bubble vision with broker pump adds included <g>!
XM has the edge in auto manuf. signed up to offer XM ready stereos. Delphi is out there promoting their receiver heavily. Announced a few days ago that the Delphi receiver will be in Wal-Marts soon.
My biggest FA problem with XMSR is the coming dilution from debt renegotiation.
caddman
I received 2 years for $199, no activation (15$), and 3 months free from new GM vehicle purchase. Net price was 174.13 plust state tax.
Actully, less taxes, 7.26 a month. Tahoe had XM ready stereo.
Family plan for receivers 2-5 is $6.99/month standard pricing. This sub is for my portable Delphi receiver.
Zeev,
One exception, and maybe your scientific mind can answer. A high tech buddy told me that satellite services that broadcast to serialized receivers actually have a limit to the number of receivers. I would like to find out what the maximum capacity is of the birds they have orbiting now. Maybe 100mm subs requires new satellite investment?
I really doubt they ever see 100mm subs. Only way is to have sirrus go out of business and their auto manufactures switch to XM. But you still need significat NET growth in subs to achieve 100mm.
caddman
See msg# 106723
Zeev,
They are going to get 1 million subs by the end of the 3rd Qtr.
I have sub for my ne Chevy Tahoe. Paid up for 2yrs and GM gave me 3 free months. Cost down to 8.60/month
Second sub is only 6.99 /month, no prepay for long term necessary.
Regular sub is 9.99. Even at 9.99 X 1m = 120m annual rev. But not until end of this year. Currently have about 350k subs. Max current rev. is 3.5M/ month.
This plus the dilution will pull this back to the 5's if you ask me.
caddman