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Oh boy...hang on to your saddle bags folks!
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year folks. Some fun, fond memories with you all here in this little corner of the internet!
All the best,
Pants
I honestly don't think the administration is playing with the number. While I believe the unemployment rate is most likely statistically "correct", I just think it is completely irrelevant with respect to the actual labor situation in this country.
Post market an even more interesting data point was released: Food stamps by persons and households at new all time record.
46,681,833 participants
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34SNAPmonthly.htm
pants
As a reminder...buy low...sell high.
pants
My parents both retire this year. They both worked and managed to save a decent nut in their retirement account. It is currently and unapologetically sitting in 100% cash. People look at current returns and think they need to "do something" right now. Bonds return essentially nothing now but the Fed can't hold interest rates down forever...the market is more powerful. When that happens retirees sitting innocently in bond funds are going to get hammered in the stampede to the exit. Equities and bonds down together. I think if folks are patient they will eventually be able to lock into some nice bond rates.
For the love of God...of course...the Fed will save the day. I find the new narrative that economic down turns are all avoidable through Fed action, completely hysterical. The stampede back to reality is going to really shake a few folks who may be leaning the wrong way.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-27/plosser-says-fed-is-prepared-to-respond-to-europe-crisis.html
Otto- I'm short the S&P and not currently short any individual issues. HD is closing in on it's all time high...a high that was reached at the absolute peak of the real estate bubble when people were dragging money out of their HELOCs and living like kings. My opinion is we are currently in a recession and the hangover is going to be rough. If HD gets a bit higher I think I'll hit it and I'm getting close to grabbing some APPL puts...just trying to sort out which make more sense.
HD is going to be a nice short.
pants
If you live within your means and manage to put a little something away each month for retirement...your reward is....*wait for it*...a zero interest return on your savings and a steaming pile of magical thinking from the Fed.
I'm maxxed out...now we wait. :)
pants
Just get short...this is like an early Christmas present.
pants
Check out TC...it could be a good one.
pants
Good post Basserdan...really crazy the money and lives wasted on this crap. I would also point out the role of the private prison companies in this "war" is larger than most understand.
pants
impressive spike down in futes and volume
Chart SPY 60 minute tagging the previous RSL. We could get a big sell off here shortly.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2012/8/24/lehhh2012-08-24-TOS_CHARTS.jpg
Yikes...last spec home I did left an indelible mark on my soul. I got out from under it with minimal financial damage if you don't count 2 years worth of my time. The investor we had on the project lost about $600k and blew his brains out the week before Christmas. I learned a lot about the value of money that year and even more about the things in life that are truly valuable to me.
Pants
Hi yank,
Good point.
Another perspective, over the last 40 or so years, 1 million starts used to be considered the level of disaster and despair...a longer term chart is still pretty depressing...no pun intended.
Andrew
http://www.forecast-chart.com/graph-housing-starts.html
You bring up a good point...I think the market will follow big A down.
Tinner it certainly is. There is no place to hide now. It's palpable.
pants
5...4...3...2...1
Chipotle says it all too.
pants
I think as the futures hand this pop off to the equities today we are going to get some rough sledding. Perfect day for a 300 point red close.
pants
oh they...saved Europe...sure they did...mmmhmmm right.
pants
Nice action today. Recession reality creeping onto more radar screens.
pants
Good morning my brothers and sisters. I've been busy driving from Scottsdale AZ to our cabin in Wisconsin with the family. Was happy to find the new board filled with familiar faces. New beginnings are wonderful. Happy summer!
Pants
Skono- not certain about state wide here either...I'm just speaking about what I know (and mine was a very specific market at that). We built in the highest of the high-end North Scottsdale golf communities (Troon, Troon North, Desert Mountain, Desert Highlands, DC Ranch) not tract stuff. Avg. selling price 3-5 million. Funny how things have changed.
I understand your frustration with the rhetoric. It's a complicated world we live in now. For a hoot, Google "construction labor shortage Arizona." Can't find anyone to work now.
pants
Skono- It wasn't a guess...ha! I actually did some quick math. Keep in mind, it wasn't like those news clips you see of the mexicans leaping into the backs of pick up trucks in Home Depot parking lot, these are guys that I worked with every day for over 10 years in some cases. I considered many of them friends. I knew their spouses and kids.
Back in 2008 we were still blowin and goin pretty good when Arizona implemented the Legal Arizona Workers Act. All employers were required to check employees' legal status against a national data base. Subs were shitting bricks (no pun intended) and before this no one really gave a crap. On my list of go-to guys: Concrete sub poof gone...drywall poof...tile poof...stucco poof...gigantic landscaping companies gone...best framing company bye bye. The other half got creative, reshuffled workers into weird consulting companies, subbed to those companies and paid guys cash. Goofy stuff. It was the first time I got a real sense of the percentages. By the time SB1070 rolled out work was easily 50% off the peak and most companies had consolidated and merged to survive. The illegals that were still left finally just scattered.
lol great clip
Yank-I would say 80-90% of all trades were illegals. Lots went back to Mexico..the rest went to New Mexico and Texas.
pants
Fish- all worked for licensed sub-contractors using questionable but good enough ID's. Because they go this route for the most part they have all taxes taken out of their paychecks. I paid the sub-contractors directly above board. Hourly pay depends on trade for the most part. Painters 15-18, framers 18-22, tile 1-2 per foot depending on job and tile size, electricians 18-22, plaster 15-18, stucco 15-18, general labor/landscapers 10-13. They could get 50-60 hours per week easy in the good old days.
pants
Thanks for sharing that...neat stuff...good memories.
pants
Newly-sounds wonderful. The trail is on my list of things to do. God's country it is.
pants
"Death panels" in any health care system are unavoidable as there will always be limits on benefits, resources, money, etc. I prefer to call this unpopular concept "life". To think private insurance is some sort of patriotic, flagged-draped, bottomless pit of unlimited free money is magical thinking. Equally misguided are those thinking that a system of "government controlled" healthcare would be much different. It takes a very evolved soul to resist a fear driven policy of wasteful health care spending. Suck it up and embrace the inevitable.
That's gonna leave a mark!!
JPM red for the day...funny.
pants
Best thing about it is that it's a gap up!!
pants
Fade this move. It's like an early Christmas present.
pants
I think you and Cap are saying the same thing...the internet is funny like that :)
pants
“There are three things I have learned never to discuss with people... Religion, Politics, and The Great Pumpkin. ”
Charles M. Schulz
Alex G- that's pretty funny stuff...small correction needed if I may be so bold...Jesus did not ride bareback on dinosaurs. The skin was far too rough...he most likely rode with a lightly padded saddle.
http://www.stonecompany.com/fossils/casts/index.html
Yankee...that is correct...money was not pulled out of equities in 2008-09 to rest on the sidelines. Let's say you have a $0 cash balance in your account but decide to liquidate your equity portfolio of $100K by selling it to me as the buyer. I give you my $100K "sidelines" cash. You now have $100K cash in your account (on the sidelines) and my sidelines cash is $0. The market isn't some sort of balloon that inflates with cash and deflates when cash is removed. Equities are always held by someone.
As for #1- the facts that he states aren't incorrect 1-2% economic growth...fairly stable job growth etc.....these are all backward looking though. Where he loses me is his statements "Most likely it will spike back up to 120-150K jobs added per month" and "But it most certainly is not a recession." I think going forward he will be wrong on both.
pants