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NFI
Congrats if you own this, but don't fall in love. Remember, this is not the greatest company.
I am long from 36 (http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=3405517), and keep looking for a reason to book profits, but so far I haven't seen one.
Culmus,
>>> there was a lustless sideways move
Interesting description! <vbl> Maybe we'll get a little more lust today.
plexxus,
Aren't descending triangles bearish, by definition? I can see that breaking up and out of that pattern on good volume and holding the breakout would be bullish, but until that happens, shouldn't we assume the downside?
Just interested in your thinking on this, and tia.
Good info, thanks.
Yeah, I admit it is complicated, and costs vary widely by country and item purchased. Food (including dining out) seems to be something that is consistently much cheaper in the US. Same for gasoline, but most of that is obviously due to taxes.
And there are some local oddities. Stockholm is like your description of Dublin. Rents and real estate look like a bargain to me - what you might expect in a small midwestern US city. But everything else is through the roof. Nominal rents in London seem moderately above places like NYC, but then you have to add the council taxes, which could easily add 20% to the price.
So maybe it's not 2x, I don't know. But I do know that these other places seem extremely expensive to me, and when my European friends come here, they are amazed at how cheap it is. That's why I think the dollar is undervalued.
Okay, enough of that... Happy Thanksgiving!
Okay, always very happy to learn something. I don't live in NYC, although I did grow up there and am there 7-8 times a year. I'm pretty familar with London too...there about once a year. I think 1.5-2x is about right. I haven't been to Paris and Tokyo in 4-5 years, but I remember them being even more expensive than London (especially Tokyo). What do you think is a better ratio? TIA.
London, Paris, and Tokyo are roughly twice as expensive as NYC. That is a pure and simple measure of purchasing power.
Yes, higher rates hurt the mortgage market. But there are 2 offsets for FNM.
First, it helps their derivatives position, which FNM uses to hedge against higher rates. These derivatives losses get smaller and may even go away. OFHEO is trying to get FNM to recognize these losses, which would reduce their book capital, and force them to raise additional capital. But if rates rise, this may not be necessary. In fact, one of FNM's options to raise capital relative to their portfolio is to deliberately not grow. If rates rise, that may actually provide FNM some latitude to grow their portfolio at a faster rate than would otherwise be possible.
The second offset is that many of FNM's competitors have taken advantage of the "carry trade", and are therefore more exposed to rising rates than FNM. If rates go up, these competitors will suddenly find themselves having to refinance their shorter-term funding sources at mugh higher cost, and the mortgage market will become much less competitive from FNM's point of view.
Rates must indeed go higher...eventually. When that happens, look for the dollar to rally sharply, beause it is a fundamentally undervalued currency.
If rates "explode to the upside", FNM's derivatives and capital issues go away....not so sure higher rates are all that bad for FNM.
BG, a monster:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BG,uu[r,a]wacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!...
A "boring" food company that is blowing away the numbers. Still sells at less than 13x conservative forward estimates.
MCD
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=MCD,uu[r,a]wacayyay[d20001123,20041123][pb50!b200!f][vc6...
Massive inverse H&S and on LT breakout watch.
SRNA
According to the call, the EITF adjustment is not factored into their guidance. But neither was it in the analysts' estimates.
Strong quarter and outlook.
QLGC and ELX - Positive comment on HBA market, from Morgan Keegan:
Trends in our recently completed channel survey continue to be strong with the channel expecting growth of approximately 6-10% sequentially based on a strong October month, and a healthy start to November. December is seasonally a strong month.
Our overall take is that the channel is somewhat surprised at the strength it is experiencing based on the strong start to the quarter. October has turned out to be strong and November is shaping up to be one of the strongest months thus far this year. The distributors we surveyed expect the strength to
continue through the remainder of the quarter.
Check with your broker. Sometimes they will buy them for a nominal amount, like a dollar for the whole lot. They get the commission, and you get the tax loss.
Expectations do seem pretty low. Estimates are now below the company's (probably conservative) guidance:
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/nsd/sndk/q304transcript.pdf
eps estimates .27, company guided above the .29 earned last quarter.
revenue estimate just under $500 mil., company guided to $500-530 million.
I don't know about $0.40, but hopefully they'll beat the estimates anyway.
Flash MP3 players: Cool products, but crowded field, including SNDK (which should have a natural advantage here).
http://www.sandisk.com/retail/dap.asp
Ditto for MSFT. Lots of stuff on the verge.
ELBO news today probably a positive sign for TTWO (GTA San Andreas)...may be a good buying opportunity in TTWO today. I am long that (in addition to ELBO), expecting a huge quarter, but looking to sell on the news.
Dan,
Are you encouraged by the latest COT report that shows a 5% move in both long and short commercial positions (in the "right" direction)?
Apologies if you've already commented on this and I missed it.
If OBL were a pitcher, he would throw at every batter and then run away.
RYL, not waiting around to see if this breakout is for real...I'm too nervous about the fundamentals. Taking my profits and running.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=RYL,uu[r,a]wacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3!Ll14...
TYC, compressed between the 200-dma and strong support in the 30 area. A break either way is playable, but I'm guessing it breaks up with earnings. Tight stops would be useful on this one.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=TYC,uu[r,a]wacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3!Ll14...
QLGC, new recovery high and through the 200-dma. Bottom of the gap at 35 looks like a reasonable target:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qlgc,uu[r,a]dacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3!Ll1...
RYL may want to retest that resistance in the 93-94 area:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=RYL,uu[r,a]wacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Lp14,3,3!Ll14...
It would be safer to wait until it gets closer to that level, no?
My guess is Pedro asked to be put in to rub the fans' noses in it. You could see how pissed he was. Francona was an idiot for agreeing to it. He almost let the Yanks back in it and didn't do Pedro's arm any good, especially when Pedro's adrenaline took over...he's lucky he didn't blow out his arm throwing 95-97mph to get those last 2 outs. He ain't as young as he used to be.
ADI slashes guidance and ALTR reports a weak quarter, but both stocks are very green...
AD
Yes, short interest ratios are high, ranging from 3.6 to 7.3 for the sample I just looked at. Put/call ratios are also high for most (HOV being the exception). Fundamentals have to crack soon. But sentiment is very negative and the charts look good. I took a small long position in RYL on this morning's dip, but otherwise am staying away.
RYL:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ryl,uu[r,a]wacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!lp14,3,3!ll14...
Lots of valid reasons to stay away from this group, but the chart looks pretty bullish to me.
Echinacea also dangerous for people who have autoimmune disorders, such as I.
Hedge funds dumping. Everybody owned this thing going into the report. This NAND pricing thing caught everyone by surprise.
They took a charge and wrote off some inventory, which is exactly what they should have done. Charge probably responsible for most of the margin pressure and half penny miss, but positions them better going forward.
INTC...not too bad, quarter roughly in line and much better than some had feared. Margins weaker, but made up with good expense control. Guidance roughly in line. Best news in the quarter was that inventories were down sequentially. Just my quick take.
They have an awesome offense and always seem to come up big when it counts. But I'm little worried about their pitching. No... actually I'm PETRIFIED whenever someone other than Mussina or Rivera is on the mound!
Lee, your Red Sox look good against my Yankees. They are clearly the better team. Unfortunately, The Curse is still in effect...Yanks in 7 on an El Duque pinch hit homer in the 18th inning. Life is not fair.
APOL right at critical support in 70 area:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=apol,uu[r,a]wacayyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!lp14,3,3!ll1...
Looks likely to take it out, with very bearish implications.
rossi, I am long a basket of gold and silver stocks (CDE among them) as a long-term play on accelerating inflation. As to the virtues of any individual stock, I only know what I read. Ask basserdan - he's the expert.
Silver, first close above $7 since April.
AMD and INTC are NOR flash, SNDK is NAND flash...very different markets.
Stopped dead at the 200-dma.
Steady on, old chap. Sometimes I feel that way too. It'll pass, you just need a few days away from the market.