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did zeev have a favorite charity that we could donate to?
...a very sad day indeed...he was a good man
sly, those middle eastern reserves are way over-stated...at least the numbers from canada are more reliable than any other country in that chart
...this is a very worthy read by the top hedge fund mgr in north america over the last 5 years:
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/06-20-2005.pdf
LG, yes, as a falling wedge would be
plexxus, aren't "expanding flag patterns"/megaphones, bearish?
justa, what low are you seeing for the SOX, to coincide with THE low of 1155 for the SPX?
thanks in advance
pg
thanks opnion...looks like we are headed lower after a brief bounce or consolidation
Jerry, it's my experience that once the BPCOMP is outside of the bb's for a month or so, then a snapper/or reversal is in order, esp if it's two back-to-back excursions outside of the bb's (along with other indicators of course)
...does the chart i posted in my last post look the same as your dorsey chart?
...it seems to me that after a brief bounce or consolidation, that we head lower over the next 4-6 weeks...thoughts?
thanks in advance
pg
Jerry, is that what you are referring to?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPCOMPQ,uu[e,a]daclyyay[d20010608,20051231][pb50!d50,1....
"WellesLamont"...you lefties whine about everything, don't you???
...and yes, i do see my response as fair game on this board, since you initiated it:
"To CRWingers on the thread, they will at least have joy, the R.C. church is now officially a branch of the CRW of America.
Ratzinger desire is to take the R.C.Church back to the middle ages.
The dreams of Pope John the 23rd are now dead.
The whole awakening of the Vatican Council II has been run over by a truck."
Global economy 'skating on thin ice,' Volcker says
Alan Abelson
Barron's
Monday, April 18, 2005
Contrary to what you may think, we have no intention of ducking the tough questions like whatever happened to the recovery? It's just that when faced with the burdensome task of delivering despairing news, we try to do so gently, saving the worst for last in the hope the dear reader will build up a bit of immunity. Contrary to surface impression, deep down we hate to see grown people cry.
The recovery is still with us -- but less so, it seems, with every passing day. For that matter, except for corporate profits, which have grown pleasingly plump, and certain frenzied parts of the economy like housing, where the boom is fast going from the improbable to the implausible, the recovery has never really flexed the kind of muscle with which economic expansions of the latter half of the last century wowed us. We guess all four of these years it has been sweating out the enormous hangover from the speculative excess that ran so wonderfully amok in both the stock market and corporate America in the late 'Nineties.
The real drag on this economy has been that those excesses never got a chance to fully correct, thanks to the Fed's fervent espousal of a liquidity cure that flooded the system with cheap credit and the Administration's extravagant, near-maniacal pursuit of stimulus, the fiscal consequences be damned. As all of history and human experience suggests, a binge is never the preferred remedy for a hangover.
So the poor old recovery, instead of a fresh start, actually began life saddled with widespread and formidable overcapacity. That virtually assured companies would be exceptionally timid in expanding and hiring, the two main spark plugs of a strong rebound. A glaring result has been a lopsided upswing, conspicuously lagging in jobs, wages and innovation. Not surprisingly, as the latest readings confirm, it has not inspired anything extraordinary in the way of manufacturing output or consumer or business confidence.
What it has provoked is a peculiar disquiet among a smattering of economists and any number of civilians as well, a disquiet that was rather eloquently expressed by Paul Volcker, Mr. Greenspan's predecessor as the big cheese at the Fed, in a recent speech at an economic gabfest at Stanford and an even more recent op-ed piece in the Washington Post.
Citing "disturbing trends, huge imbalances, disequilibria, risks" lurking beneath the placid surface of the economy, he confesses they strike him "as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot." And what bugs him even more is that no one appears very interested in, let alone capable of, doing anything about it.
Even those sectors of the economy that bespeak strength on closer inspection prove less than encouraging. "We're buying a lot of housing at rising prices," Mr. Volcker concedes, but goes on to echo someone's nifty formulation that houses are now as much an ATM machine as a place to live in.
He points out that as a nation, we're consuming and investing roughly 6% more than we're producing. That's a neat trick, and we're able to pull it off by grace of huge gobs of money imported from abroad, some US$2 billion worth a day. In the process, we're absorbing a mind-boggling 80% of the world's net flow of capital.
Central banks in China and Japan and elsewhere in East Asia for the moment are happy to supply the dough, while their countries provide the stuff that crowd our shops and our garages. But, Mr. Volcker cautions, those indulgent foreigners, whether central banks or private institutions, at some point "will have their fill of dollars."
More than likely, he reckons, the cause of such a disruptive change will be "financial crisis rather than policy forecast." More specifically, if the deficits and imbalances continue to grow -- and we don't get the impression Mr. Volcker would bet against that prospect -- confidence in our capital markets is destined to wither. When and if that happens, the consequences for us and the global economy will be downright awful.
"We're skating on increasingly thin ice," Mr. Volcker declares. And the only way to negotiate this dangerous passage is the old-fashioned way: by getting serious about monetary and fiscal discipline. It's urgent that we do so, he plainly believes. But, just as plainly, he's anything but optimistic that we will.
BSX purchase of additional CYBX common may heighten acquisition likelihood
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh59678_2005-03-31_19-13-30_n31...
CYBX ready to make a move to 45 or so imo, to the test that prior high...just bot here
re: "asset inflation dynamics" in 1929
...and "One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago"
http://www.wsu.edu/~forda/chome.html
"The 1920’s was an inflationary period. Murray Rothbard estimates that the money stock grew by 63% (Rothbard “America’s Great Depression” [1963] 1983 : p.90) and Milton Friedman estimates the growth to be 45% from 1921 to 1929 (Friedman “A Monetary History of The United States” [1963] 1993: p.274). (I put these numbers in to correct a previous post). Yet, during this time there was stability in consumer and whole sale price."
zeev, "it's always darkest before dawn"...there's another take on that, and that is: "it's always darkest before it goes completely black"
...this mkt is going to factor in the coming R imo...and i have more faith in your own abandoned 2005 scenario than you do, i think we it is all said and done, you will find that it was only delayed
you gonna add more at COMP 1750?...will you be 100% margin there?
zeev, CNBC has a special segment about "How To Buy The Dip" - i'm serious (and that can't be good for the mkt)
...this is after they called a "turnaround day for homebuilders"...and after they promoted 5 different $1m homes to their viewership this week...lol (kinda reminds me of the "buy your own island" commercials of 2000)
...homebuilders are done imo, those are ugly candles on BZH, etc that will not be taken out
softechie, PLEASE allow me to buy you a beer on my GOOG short profits
....................die GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOGY!!!
...what's you target for this thing?
...awesome short btw at $214, congrats! (way better price than me)
softurkey, don't jinx us shorts...g
(just razzing you on your nick)
profit_guy
zeev, aren't those serious negative divergences we had in the banks and transports considered "extremes" as per the DOW and SPX?
pg
zeev,
i have reviewed all of your recent posts, and i am somewhat confused by your post below, as it seems as tho you feel that the nassacre may get aborted?
thanks in advance,
pg
"The nominal date was supposed to be 2/23 and the target was in the 200 to 2250 area, but if we do not take out 2112 with some gusto early in the week, who knows, either that is delayed, or maybe it does not happen. Not much excess exuberance so far, so it may take time to mature, or it may get aborted. Got to see the numbers day by day now."
zeev, i think we saw the highs, and i find it quite concerning that so many flyers are broken, and that so many turds ran 300-400% so quickly...it's like deja vu all over again as yogi once said
...oil also looks to be invalidating that head and shoulders pattern...and interest rates and inflation look to go higher this year...as well, look for a hard landing by china
...those 3 black crows on the russell look ominous
...thankfully people can keep buying real estate at record levels with no money down...g/ng
pg
syl, this is QUITE concerning - can i get your thoughts on this (esp the top article)
...also, keep in mind that lack of pricing power rumbling from PHM (in vegas) a couple of months ago
thanks in advance,
pg
zeev, i would think there will be a LOT of split announcements coming up over the next 1-2 months...any thoughts?
...RIMM EBAY OSTK and TZOO to name a few...
justa, for the last two FOMC's (aug 10 and sept 21) we have sold off in the the following 3-4 days after a rally the "day of"...tho this is not scientific, methinks we get the opposite this time
http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/#calendars
yes LaFem, i agree Michael Moore would make a wonderful Supreme Court Justice.....lol...get help!
man, i had no idea you lefties would whine so much...it's like listening to a stuck pig
guys get some sleep...and try and think of somes names for Dubya to appt to the Supreme Court
bush wins by almost 4 million popular vote
bush just got NV
799 of 827 precincts - 97 percent
John Thune Rep 192,208 - 51 percent
Tom Daschle (i) Dem 183,042 - 49 percent
ok chicken little
LaFem, why don't you and that fat slob michael moore console eachother...maybe you can get barbra streisand, bono, springsteen, alec baldwin and susan sarandon, et al too
i think dan rather is gonna cry...lol
you dems are gonna need a TEAM of guys in little white coats to help you deal with this...were talking switzerland in some lab somewhere
stowboat, i am afraid the lefties are gonna need to seek professional help to deal with this...lol
dems were beaten like a rented mule...lol
all votes will be counted and you will still lose...you'll lose OH, the presidency, the senate, the house, the popular vote and the US Supreme Court appointments...i'd call that a clean sweep...heck even daschle is toast
LaFem, fortunately for you and america, bush will be appointing approx 3 new US Supreme Court justices that will shape the court for the rest of your life!...lol
"DEAL WITH IT WACKOS"...man you guys are snot-nosed whiners...DEAL WITH IT, YOU LOST!
dems won't fight this thing too hard, they know they lost the electoral college, the senate, the house, and the popular vote...they will tuck their tail between their legs after a short fight, and then get ready for '08