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samplescave - no pm, absolutely, 2 thumbs up, lol
exceo - Very well said! Spoken like a CEO with common sense and logic! Very well said.
samplescave - I appreciate the DD you've shared here. I agree with you "Somethings Brewing For Sure!" Correct me if I'm wrong but it looked like there was quiet accumulation taking place long before the momo's got into this. What hestheman posted makes alot of sense.
hestheman - I agree. In re: to the LOI's all I could find regarding them was it said (pending).
IMO your post makes alot of sense and is on target.
Thanks for your DD.
thanks seeyalaterbuy
thanks, I have to run, appreciate your posts
I'm not sure. I'm running errands off and on today. Near as I can figure so far, it looks like Butler does or Butler Int. I don't think it is as dead as appears as first look. It appears there are two LOI's pending. One from NESCO Inc to to acquire the entire share capital of Butler International Inc (Butler). Terms were not disclosed./ and the other from Eastern Staffing LLC, doing business as Select Staffing, and a unit of Koosharem Corp, doing business as The Select Family of Staffing Cos, signed a Letter of Intent {LoI} to acquire all the outstanding common stock of Butler International…
Off and running again. Need to do more research.
I noticed the same thing. If any volumne came in this could run up hard and fast imo.
just got back from the attorney on a different matter. asked him if it was possible for bk to be dismissed? he said "yes it is" he wasn't sure why the Q would still be attached. this is down on low volumne. if the Q drops, this thing could explode.
Looks like it is down on low volumne with quiet accumulation taking place?
Thanks sneak-attack for putting that out there. I was pondering the same thing. However, I am walking around in my slippers today and was worried about my ankles gettin' bittin'. (That's an optomistic thought that doesn't fit in with the normal doom and gloom that's been ruling this board). lol
Have a Great Weekend yourself:)
TOB - enjoy your posts. I'm not a trader so I don't understand charts and such. All I know is I popped on here yesterday and saw the price drop, said o'sh00t! just great! the bashers got their way. Bought some 12's and soon after saw lots and lots of green on the time and sales thing. I stretched out the time and sales as far as my computer screen would let me and it looked like ireland, st. patty's day. It looked awesome. So all I know is there were alot of buyers for the shares that were sold. Have no idea if it will drop more or not, still have some dry powder as they say, if it does. Good news is coming. imo.
stocks2rise - your opinion makes alot of sense. I think the ongoing negotations are complicated somewhat by the upcoming elections as well as the pib. These negotiations are not anything like thinking about going to walmart and picking out a new coffee pot.
DFRAI, I agree with your thought, and I think Peter is correct, the timing is wrong to worry about Block 40. IMO
Strategyone - Totally agree with you, very well said.
Ditto what you said- "shadow....I don't know exactly whom you spoke with but I want you to know I believe what you are saying. I'm not gonna doubt you for one minute soldier....also your DD has been impeccable, alot of it matches up the same with my DD and thoughts on what will happen with BUTLQ. IMO....a R/M with Select Staffing is only a matter of time. GLTY and thanks for sharing."
It also looks like there is a chunk of shorts that will need to be covered.
Date|Symbol[ShortVolume]ShortExemptVolume|TotalVolume|Market
20110331|BUTLQ|200221|0|994400|O
http://regsho.finra.org/FORFshvol20110331.txt
So they gapped it down at opening today?
What do you make of this? It's what yahoo is showing.
Tue, Mar 29, 2011
Prev Close: 0.06
Open: 0.04
Thanks Homeport - Great find, sounds like there is alot going on behind closed doors.
petemantx - Excellent post, very well said, and I also agree with Pepsiman2001's ..." you have expressed in words how many of us non vocal shareholders feel."
Thanks!
You have got to be Freakin' Kiddin' me! You mean to say you have not told PN or DK or SEO or the BOD how you feel about management? What are you waiting for? A Nigerian fortnight?
Kingpindg Thanks for all the DD you share.
In addition to what you highlighted in post# 236857, this also grabbed my attention:
"For instance, if we hold 20 per cent and the cost of the well is $10 million then it means we have to release our own $2 million to execute the job. That is centrally our business model."
Leads me to believe the shelf placement was done for more than simply raising cash to sustain payroll. So if that $2 million provides a 20 per cent revenue stream, that's not dilution, that's brillant! And if ERHE/SEO does want to sell out as some have suggested here, it makes ERHE more attractive to a potential buyer and more valuable; much the same as what Addax did prior to selling to SNP. IMO
"The wells are there but they have been capped for some reasons or they were never developed. We are negotiating currently with at least three owners of marginal fields even though that is still being done in confidence."
It looks to me like ERHE/SEO is covering all bases: positioning itself for a buyout and also positioning itself with a backup plan if the price isn't met near term. IMO
coincidence?? In my opinion it looks like an orchestrated agenda.
lol, yes I noticed that, Thank you!
In looking at the 3 month chart above there appears to be a correlation between the red/pink bars and the black/gray bars (volume) and the management bit@hers. When the black/gray bars are in favor, the anti-management, anti-PN crew are out loaded for bear. When the red/pink bars are in favor, they don't seem to post as much, if at all.
Interesting, Go Figure!
http://www.philnugentglobal.com/bio.php
...Mr. Nugent was also instrumental in introducing ERHE, a publically traded company to Sir Emeka Offor, a Nigerian Industrialist to purchase a majority share interest. Today, this company enjoys the one of the largest acreage positions in the Gulf of Guinea along with its operating partner Sinopec of China. A five (5) well exploration program was successfully completed in 5 months in 7,000 feet of water during 2009, creating values to the co-venturers that many now believe are in the $billions. From the first work on the JDZ concept to current drilling has demanded persistence and vision – it has been an eleven (11) year program.
2010 and the future
Currently, Nugent is Chief Executive Officer and a founder and director of
SOCOSS International, LLC, a Texas corporation formed to provide the services of the Strategic Offshore Crude Oil Storage System (SOCOSSTM) which offers a free market way to seriously reduce disruptive forces in Nigeria and improve the revenues for the
benefit of Nigeria. Secondarily, it helps provide continued reliable crude oil supplies to the United States.
On Dec. 8, 2009, Nugent along with co inventors received a United States Patent for the system and method for secure offshore storage of crude oil or refined petroleum products.
Thank You! eom
GO ERHE! In Regard to a deleted post- Let me rephrase - If the Shoe Fits...I'm beginning to think that You have done Considerable Harm to ERHE's Reputation and Shareprice with your Incessant Negative Posts [all of which you never back up with FACT]. So... Who do We Report You to?
The one thing that does appear to be based on Fact, and You have done a Commendable Job of Proving, Is: "The problem child always requires the most attention." post#
Intelligent and Smart as you profess to be; Don't you think it would be in your best interest to Sell your Paltry 25K - 125K shares and move on? post#
Sorry for feeding the monkey!
ps Give my Regards to Rancho and Mongo
Some thoughts
There are No Royalties payable for the production of Natural Gas in the JDZ.
============================================================
ExxonMobil sees gas trumping coal by 2030
Natural gas will surpass coal as the second-largest global energy source behind oil by 2030, even as overall global demand for energy jumps 35% from 2005 levels, ExxonMobil said today.
News wires 27 January 2011 18:19 GMT
That energy demand will be fastest in developing economies, where usage will climb 70%, while developed economies will see essentially flat demand because of improvements in energy efficiency, the supermajor said in its annual energy outlook, according to a Reuters report...
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article242649.ece
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China, Nigeria, Sao Tome/Principe are developing countries; the gas that has been found has value and there are No Royalties payable on Natural Gas in the JDZ.
=================================================================
Sinopec and Addax Ltd. pay all of ERHC’s current and future costs in respect of petroleum operations in Blocks 2,3 and 4. Sinopec and Addax Ltd. are to receive to 100% of ERHC’s allocation of cost plus up to 50% of ERHC’s allocation of profit until they recover all costs advanced on behalf of ERHC.
Additionally in Block 2, Sinopec is to receive 6% interest on its current and future costs, up to $35 million, but only to the extent that those interest costs are recoupable out of production.
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If I understand that correctly, ERHE will have a revenue stream from the first drop of Oil. It sounds like a win-win situation for SNP/Addax/ERHE. Sounds like they both covered their a$$ and have a good relationship.
Thinking of the JDZ as an area wide developement; if you take SNP/Addax/ERHE's percents in Blocks 2,3 and 4 and add them together, that's a big chunk of percents to work with if you want to form some kind of consortium with TOTAL who is now in Block 1. Then there are also Blocks 5,6,9 and the EEZ which could be used in negotiating a consortium. Although 5 and 6 appear to still be in Arbitration.
Kownski-
23.4 There shall be no Royalties payable for the production of Natural Gas in the Joint
Development Zone.
23.5 The applicable Royalties payable in the Joint Development Zone for Crude Oil and
Casinghead Petroleum Spirit shall be according to the following sliding scale table:
P<20 R= 0
20 <=P<=70 R= 5%{1-[(70-P)/(70-20)]}
P>70 R= 5
where: P=production in thousands of barrels/day
R=royalty rate
http://www.nigeriasaotomejda.com/PDFs/Petroleum%20Regulations.pdf
==================================================================
5.1 Tax Rate
A uniform Tax rate of 50% shall be charged throughout the JDZ.
http://www.nigeriasaotomejda.com/PDFs/Updated%20Guidelines%202004.pdf
Plumo-The following is an excerpt from a 10-K SEC Filing, filed by ERHC ENERGY INC on 12/14/2010.
http://sec.edgar-online.com/erhc-energy-inc/10-k-annual-report/2010/12/14/section3.aspx
ERHC entered into a series of negotiations and agreements that positioned the Company to enter into a Participation Agreement dated November 17, 2005 (the “Participation Agreement”) with Addax Petroleum (Nigeria Offshore 2) Limited (“Addax”). Under the Participation Agreement, as amended, Addax ultimately paid ERHC $18 million in February and March 2006 in exchange for the sale of a 40.5% participating interest (the “Assigned Interest”) in Block 4 while ERHC retained a 19.5% interest (“Retained Interest”). Under the Participation Agreement, as amended, Addax currently serves as operator and pays all of ERHC’s current and future costs in respect of all petroleum operations in Block 4 subject to reimbursement upon production. Addax is to receive 100% of ERHC’s allocation of costs plus up to 50% of ERHC’s allocation of profit until Addax recovers all costs advanced on behalf of ERHC.
In February 2006, ERHC assigned a 15% participating interest in Block 3 of the JDZ to Addax Petroleum Resources Nigeria Limited (“Addax Sub”) for $7.5 million which was paid in the second quarter of fiscal 2006. ERHC retained a 10% interest in Block 3. Under the participation agreement between ERHC and Addax Sub, Addax Sub is currently “carrying” all of ERHC’s current and future costs in respect of petroleum operations in Block 3. Addax Sub is to receive 100% of ERHC’s allocation of costs oil plus up to 50% of ERHC’s allocation of profit until Addax Sub recovers all costs advanced on behalf of ERHC.
In March 2006, ERHC assigned a 28.67% participating interest in Block 2 of the JDZ to Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation Nigeria (“Sinopec”), and a 14.33% participating interest to Addax Energy Nigeria Limited (“Addax Ltd.”). ERHC retained a 22% participating interest in Block 2. In connection with these sales, Sinopec paid ERHC $13.6 million and Addax Ltd. paid ERHC $6.8 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2006. Under the participation agreement among ERHC, Sinopec and Addax Ltd., Sinopec currently serves as operator, and Sinopec and Addax Ltd. pay all of ERHC’s current and future costs in respect of petroleum operations in Block 2. Sinopec and Addax Ltd. are to receive to 100% of ERHC’s allocation of cost plus up to 50% of ERHC’s allocation of profit until they recover all costs advanced on behalf of ERHC. Additionally, Sinopec is to receive 6% interest on its current and future costs, up to $35 million, but only to the extent that those interest costs are recoupable out of production.
Let me ask you this? If you were an IOC and had a nice NASI, anxious to drill for that fine P50, but you have an 800lb. PIB standing in your way wanting a handout; What would you do? Would you show your NASI now or would you wait for the PIB to be more reasonable?
IMO at this time I tend to believe that the NASI numbers are/will be very good. I think Peter has been very busy and I think it is a good thing that SEO has a vested interest in ERHE. I read one report that said Nigeria's Oil reserves are shrinking and they need more interest in offshore exploration.
I tend to think the problem is the Petroluem Industry Bill (PIB), not ERHE, not SNP, not Peter and not Dan.
I think the IOC's are sending a message by not wanting to participate until this PIB thing gets ironed out. I believe the IOC's are very interested in the JDZ and EEZ however, until these PIB people are willing to be more reasonable, they are not going to show their hand too fast. Kind of like a high stakes poker game with billions of dollars at stake.
===================================================================================================
I found this interesting; the other day I put in a AON Buy for 20K at Ask .22, it took nearly all
day to fill, it only filled after the Ask dropped to .215. The previous day I had done the same
thing, it never filled. So I wondered what would happen if I put in a Sell between Bid and Ask. It
sold within a few minutes. So that makes me wonder who's accumulating as amj suggested.
All the above is probably way off base and far fetched and is just my opinion and means nothing.
By Ejiofor Alike
05 Oct 2010
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/oil-exploration-firm-negotiates-phase-2-in-jdz/77363/
...On the progress recorded in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) that belongs solely to Sao Tome &
Principe, Ntephe noted that ERHC continued to be encouraged by the interest from potential farm-in
partners for oil and gas exploration in the EEZ.
He disclosed that ERHC has a 100 per cent working interest in EEZ Blocks 4 and 11 that are
completely free of signature bonuses.
“Earlier this month, the National Petroleum Agency of São Tomé & Príncipe (ANP-STP) extended the
1st Licensing Round to later in the year to give more companies an opportunity to take part in the
bidding process. We consider the extension to be a positive development as it could attract more
exploration companies and provides ERHC more time to reach agreement with a technical partner
prior to entering into negotiations of Production Sharing Contracts,” he said.
According to him, ERHC believes the EEZ has all the necessary components of a successful
petroleum system.
Ntephe noted :“The close proximity of São Tomé and Príncipe’s offshore waters to the proven
hydrocarbon systems in the adjacent territorial waters of Gabon, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and
Nigeria suggests the potential for hydrocarbons, which is further supported by seismic data and
petroleum seeps seen on the island of São Tomé.”
He also said that the effort to conclude an agreement with one or more operating partners in the
EEZ was a long-term initiative that would likely be completed in 2011.
“Following the completion of the EEZ 1st Licensing Round, ERHC will consider exercising its
preferred rights to back-in to two additional EEZ Blocks of its choice with a 15 per cent working
interest on which a signature bonus would be payable. This would follow discussions with the Block
operators whom ANP-STP selects as well as technical due diligence of the Blocks,” he added.
==================================================================
7-Oct-2010
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, Regulation FD Disclosure, Financial S
The Private Placement to raise $2 million. Were they negotiating a deal and all they had to do is raise $2 million to back-in to two additional EEZ Blocks with a 15% working interest?
==================================================================
http://www.hrw.org/en/node/92601/section/8
...Equator Exploration, for its part, was allocated Block 5 and Block 12 in the EEZ and in mid-2010
began to negotiate the production sharing contracts. The government has asked for signature bonus
payments of $2 million for Block 5 and $2.5 million for Block 12 according to the Economist Intelligence
Unit. [49] In February 2010, the São Tomean government reached formal agreements to award
blocks 4 and 11 to EHRC for no signature bonus payments. [50] The government has contracted a
private company to negotiate production sharing contracts with both companies for these blocks in
2010. [51]
===================================================================================================
http://www.equatorexploration.com/operations/sao_tome.aspx
Prospectivity
JDZ Block 2 lies at the end of the toe thrust of the deep water Niger basin. It is adjacent to
Nigerian Block OML 130, which hosts the Akpo Field, with reserves of 600 million barrels of oil
and 1 TCF of gas (Total 2007) and series of significant discoveries. The Obo-1 well discovery in
the adjoining Block 1 proved the existence of a hydrocarbon source and the presence of excellent
reservoir sands in the region of Block 2.
Based on the 3D seismic survey, acquired in 2003 by PGS and partially funded by Equator, NSAI made
a Best Estimate of Gross Unrisked Prospective Resources of 1.3 billion barrels of oil and 1.9
trillion standard cubic feet of gas in total in the 10 identified prospects.
The subsequent evaluation by the operator differs in detail with regard to the definition, size
and ranking of the prospects from the NSAI evaluation. For example, the operator identified 18
structures. Their estimate of total unrisked prospective oil-in-place is 3.9 billion barrels and
of unrisked prospective gas-in-place is 8 trillion cu ft, both at the P50 level. These figures
compare with NSAI’s Best Estimates of unrisked prospective in-place volumes of 4.7 billion barrels
for oil and 3 trillion cu ft for gas.
===================================================================================================
ExxonMobil sees gas trumping coal by 2030
Natural gas will surpass coal as the second-largest global energy source behind oil by 2030, even
as overall global demand for energy jumps 35% from 2005 levels, ExxonMobil said today.
News wires 27 January 2011 18:19 GMT
That energy demand will be fastest in developing economies, where usage will climb 70%, while
developed economies will see essentially flat demand because of improvements in energy efficiency,
the supermajor said in its annual energy outlook, according to a Reuters report.
New supplies of gas, including the shale rock fields that are now being tapped across North
America, and its lower environmental impact versus other fuels, will drive that higher demand.
Exxon and its peers such as Chevron have invested heavily in large natural gas developments in
recent years.
Power generation is the fastest growing major energy-demand sector, the company said, and will
contribute 55% of the total growth in demand through 2030, bringing its share of total energy
demand to 40%.
Alternative sources of energy such as wind, solar and biofuels will grow about 10% per year
through 2030, but will still contribute only about 2.5% of total global energy supplies,
ExxonMobil said.
Published: 27 January 2011 18:19 GMT | Last updated: 27 January 2011 18:20 GMT
http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article242649.ece
No Scottrade. Ya, I don't know, saw alot of sells at .23, thought for sure it would drop to .22 or.225 like it has been doing and I'd get filled. Plus I thought they opened with a gap up? Who knows, maybe ERHE is finally going to start moving up.
That is interesting. I put an order in this morning for 30K at .23 and it never filled. What do you make of that? Any and all thoughts welcome.
Anxiety as PIB date for passage draws near
The Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) at the weekend struck another anxiety among oil firms in Nigeria as date for the passage of the bill draws near.
Minister of Petroleum Resources, Diezni Alison-Madueke, had earlier stated that the National Assembly might pass the bill before the end of December.
This is expected to pave the way for a new exploration licensing round, the country’s presidential advisor on energy, Emmanuel Egbogah, added.
But findings by **Daily Independent** at the weekend showed that many oil firms that have earlier opposed to the fiscal provisions in the bill still believe that the federal government has not rectified the sections.
“It is likely to be passed by the year end,” Egbogah told Reuters in New Delhi where he is attending an energy conference.
Egbogah said once the legislation is approved, Nigeria would launch its next oil exploration licensing round in the first half of 2011.
The Federal Government says the bill will make state oil firm, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), more transparent; encourage investment; promote local oil company involvement in the industry, and increase gas supplies to the dilapidated domestic power sector.
But international oil companies like Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil, Total and Chevron, which have dominated Nigeria’s energy sector for decades, are worried the Bill will impose higher taxes and royalties while failing to address key issues of under-funding, corruption and security. The Bill has been repeatedly delayed by revisions and disagreement. But on Monday, Egbogah said all the terms relating to the bill have been finalised.
He also said Nigeria is currently producing 2.6 to 2.7 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) versus an output capacity of 3.6 million bpd.
Crude oil supplies from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which, together produce over a third of global oil supplies, rose in October because of higher supply from Angola and smaller increases from other members, reducing adherence to agreed output targets, a Reuters survey showed on Friday.
When asked about China’s bid to lock in oil reserves in Nigeria, Egbogah said, “discussions have not progressed.”
China had offered to invest $50 billion to acquire 6 billion barrels of Nigerian oil reserves in proposal made in June 2009.
http://www.independentngonline.com/DailyIndependent/Article.aspx?id=23866
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Content policy stifles new deepwater projects By Bassey Udo
November 16, 2010 11:51PM
print email
International oil companies (IOCs) operating in the country have criticised government's implementation of the Nigerian Content Development (NCD), saying imposition of the policy is stifling both the number and the pace of developing new deepwater oil projects.
Mark Ward, Lead Country Manager, ExxonMobil Companies in Nigeria, voiced their concern yesterday in a session on Nigerian Content Development (NCD) at the ongoing conference of the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) in Abuja.
Mr. Ward said though Nigerian Content Development was important, there was need to strike a balance between its objectives and efficient project development processes to sustain activity continuity.
"Nigerian Content Development needs to be paced, realistic, and collaborative. Imposition could stifle both the total number of in-country projects and projects development pace," he said, adding that "significant improvements are also needed to address the protracted permitting and approval process to reduce cycle time, which will lead to improved project value."
Multiple approval system
Under the provisions of the proposed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) currently pending before the National Assembly for legislation, a new midstream and downstream project approval and licencing system has been introduced to handle approvals for investments in those sectors of the industry.The new system is in addition to the existing arrangement requiring all joint venture exploration and production companies to get approvals from the National Petroleum Investments Management Services (NAPIMS) and the Department Petroleum Resources (DPR) before embarking on projects in the country's petroleum industry.
Besides, multi-national companies handling jobs that require the use of expatriates are expected to get the approval of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) before engaging such personnel to execute jobs in the industry.
Under the new policy, affected companies are to mandatorily give the right-of-first-refusal to Nigerians by advertising the offer of such positions in Nigerian and international media. The jobs can only be given to non-Nigerians only if at the end of the publications, no qualified Nigerian was found with the relevant competence and expertise to handle them in-country.
Huge undeveloped potentials
Other participants at the conference stressed the need to ensure that implementation of the NCD policy facilitated the process to initiate fresh projects to take up the approximately 22 billion barrels of oil equivalent currently being associated with the West Africa deepwater development.
Current estimates show potentials of about three billion barrels of oil as undeveloped, with about 19 billion barrels of oil equivalent as undiscovered, while a combined developed and undeveloped gas resources stand at about six billion barrels of oil equivalent, or 35 trillion cubic feet (TCF), with a sizable proportion of the potentials located in Nigeria.
On challenges in Nigeria's deepwater development, Mr. Ward observed that though Nigeria and Angola began licencing of deepwater oil concessions at the same time in early 1990s, the tough fiscal terms to operators by the government between 2000 and 2005 had rendered exploration for oil unattractive, resulting in the decline in the rate of field development activities.
http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5643190-146/content_policy_stifles_new_deepwater_projects.csp
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...The PIB, a wide-ranging legislation, will rewrite Nigeria’s decades-old relationship with its foreign oil partners, altering everything from the fiscal framework for offshore oil projects to the involvement of indigenous firms in the sector.
Industry operators had alleged that uncertainty over the passage of the legislation, which has been subject to numerous revisions and debate, has meant billions of dollars of potential investment are on hold in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.
http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/exxonmobil-strikes-rich-gas-discovery-offshore-nigeria/
Krombacher~ I think there's a few clues in these artitcles...
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Sao Tome wants to partner with African oil companies
23 Sep 2010
http://www.energy-pedia.com/article.aspx?articleid=142198
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Self – Serving Oil Deals
Written by Sebastine Obasi
Sunday, 22 August 2010
http://www.newswatchngr.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2360&Itemid=1
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Sao Tome and Principe at Oil Bonanza Crossroads
By Megan Iacobini de Fazio
NEW YORK, Aug 24, 2010 (IPS) - With an estimated 10 billion barrels of oil in the Gulf of Guinea, the small archipelago of Sao Tome and Principe
http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=52598
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Will the real *Rancho* please stand up.
Pepsiman2001~ I agree with you, even though I prefer CocaCola Classic.lol Very Well said!
tamtam~ I agree with you. And what I find interesting is; these same people are not transparent. They do not post their real name, address, credentials or a picture of themselves. Yet they want people to rally behind them and blindly follow them. Kind of like those old western movies where someone with a loud mouth says someone is guilty, "get the rope lets hang'em!", before knowing *all* the facts.