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LOL!!!
Looks like a 50 year old slide projector...
It's a picture I took of Mt. Rainier in Washington State... from a trail along a river we were hiking a couple summers back. It was taken using a really cheap little no name 10MP digital camera that was basically cheap enough to be considered disposable if it got a rock dropped on it, got dropped in the river, got dropped in a large vat of wine at a winery, or dunked in a glass full of some other beverage, fell from great height on a ski lift, got eaten by an alligator, stepped on by a horse, or run over by a car...
FWIW, while I do try to be creative in the methods I employ in destroying the minor electronic gadgets I buy... but, any PETAphiles in the crowd please note, that I didn't FORCE that stupid gator to eat anything... and really couldn't do anything about it anyway, but still would have figured it was better to fail in preventing it, than "letting" him eat me instead.
Any problems with the image quality... are a result of the lack of "quality" megapixels with digital zoom, and the lack of a tripod... given its a hand held shot from a good distance... or, no excuses, the lack of skill on the part of the photographer, which also explains all the other issues.
I'd agree that bandwidth and storage limits are probably a bigger limiting factor than the quantity of local silicon and other bells and whistles.
It's not about "fancy equipment" but optimizing function versus value delivered.
They clearly have not "optimized" anything.
"We are told on almost a daily basis that we're FINE"
Does ANYONE believe that ?
Does ANYONE think that anyone else could or would believe it ?
Is a $96 million dollar hole... growing faster... "fine" ?
"We're facing significant difficulties"... isn't that hard to say.
Not saying it... seems it means they're not dealing with it.
LOL!!!
I once had a job... that had me managing an ANALOG computer... thumbwheels to set the data. Was world changing to upgrade to a Commodore 64 equivalent digital computing capability. Reduced the man hour equivalent work load by > 50%...
Later... I suggested and then oversaw some of the planning for the replacement of an entire, large building that was occupied by a massive mainframe and the massive cooling system for it... which was all handily duplicated in function and improved by a couple of first generation pentiums in desktops that fit in a corner of the storeroom.
Now, my laptop would probably do most of it just fine by itself...
Being one, I recognize dinosaurs when I see them...
But, now we're deep into the digital era... the pace of the technology improvement still happening now on the curve with Moore's Law... means you're not "standing still" but "moving backwards" if you're not at least current with what was "top of the line" capability three or four years ago... which is "old stuff" that's already pretty much being given away rather than sold, as others upgrade to "right now".
What happened to all the money they should have had allocated to the various upgrades the business clearly requires ?
I think it's still "possible" to make a business like this work.
Frankly, it's about the easiest imaginable management problem I can think of, to figure out how to manage a business like this and make it work.
That's why I was thinking, at my first look, that they'd easily "fix" this thing and return it to its former "glory"... as its really NOT a hard problem, and management "fixes" go...
But, they've not even appeared to be trying ?
And, the more you see that exposes the obvious pathology inherent in the organization... the more you recognize that the business and the management appear that they never made the transition to the digital era in their thinking, even if the cameras, their people, and the studios had.
"Old school" analog thinking in the digital age... won't cut it.
Particularly on the financial side.
This business is dead... mostly because you can't fix that KIND of stupid... without big changes at the top, and from the top down.
I think with the right decisions, they could EASILY have fixed it... more than a year ago... probably for less $ than they've spent since then just on hiring the "consultants" who are advising them on "restructuring"...
This is far and away the LEAST well managed company that I've ever seen... EVER... and after YEARS of doing this and studying the causes of and indications of the market failures I see occurring (which is necessary to avoid investing in them)... that's saying something.
I think what that means... is that there are OTHER reasons... for the failure being delivered.
It appears that they REALLY don't WANT to fix it... for some reason... because the problems that are apparent are EASY fixes, and there's ZERO movement apparent in addressing them. A lot of what they are doing, and they WAY they are doing it, appears CLEARLY intended to make things worse, not better... and to make things LOOK even worse than they ARE.
Giving things away... intended to result in failure... faster ?
That they reward and protect dishonest people... is a major clue.
And, when I see that happening... I think that probably means the failure they're cooking up probably has more to do with some issue in some LIABILITY that is being hidden, still, more than it has to do with anything else.
So, the problems appear they are NOT about how difficult it is to fix what's broken in the business model and make the business work again... but may be about some "benefit" to those at the top... that results from covering their asses with a required failure... that makes the risks go away...
And that means that what's broken in the business, is probably more about the finances and accounting than it is operations.
A simple, profitable business being "taken down" rather than fixed... makes you wonder if there's a financial crime being covered up. It reeks of some massive financial fraud being hidden... that they're trying to cover up by killing off the company... IN A PARTICULAR WAY... hoping that will allow a "take down" that fails the business, while failing to expose that problem.
The $96 million dollar hole... is a big obstacle. But that hole has been GROWN LARGER, FASTER, on purpose... since they started in on the effort in "trying to fix it"... ???
Meanwhile, we can see from the studio level that the efforts made... haven't fixed anything... and don't appear they ever intended to... ? Why did the banks take over, and enable themselves in growing the hole THAT LARGE... AFTER they clearly KNEW the scope of the problems ? The banks decisions appear intended to interfere with "fixing it"... even obstructing the potential that it might accidentally get better by itself if they didn't do anything to make things worse.
It's not too hard for me... to think that there are probable issues in financial malfeasance... that might involve the banks... as well as the management...
And, with the banks calling the shots on all the decisions instead of the company management... who is that is trying to kill the company, rather than "fix" it ?
My guess is that the "effort to fix it" is probably a lot closer to the sort of "fix" that constitutes obstruction of justice than it is to "a fix" that intends to repair something that's broken.
So, yeah... the shareholders lawsuits are probably the only real risk factor that matters to them... as that's probably the only thing that might operate to expose whatever it is that it seems they're trying to protect... which is not your job, the value of the shareholders shares, or the future of the company... but some financial skeleton in the closet... which they don't want exposed.
Just guessing, of course... but that's the "vibe" I get...
Shareholders lawyers should probably be looking at the accounting really, really carefully... and looking at the second and third level "known associates" of the principals and insiders... for clues.
JMHO
I don't care about your judgment of the quality of my posts.
Seriously...
Go buy the lowest-end possible POS slimline desktop from Walmart... and it's going to have a 500GB hard drive on it.
And, if your studio is AT a Walmart... it's not like you have to go very far to get it ?
"Also another issue with only having the pictures stored in the studio is if the drives fail, the pictures are gone."
There's not a backup scheme or capability ?
That's an almost criminal level bit of negligence now.
That 1 Terrabyte disk is only $60 now ?
They're giving away product worth more than that... ?
This company NEEDS to be in bankruptcy... to stop the banks from looting it...
"the SPS locations have about 250gb-500gb of space on a RAID array on their server"
I have easily four times that on my four year old laptop... on two small disks, which are "almost" credit card sized.
Here ya go: http://www.ebay.com/itm/New-1-Terabyte-1TB-32MB-Cache-7200RPM-SATA-3-0Gb-s-3-5-Desktop-Hard-Drive-/170869726567?pt=US_Internal_Hard_Disk_Drives&hash=item27c8a11d67
Sounds like the $ that any company should have been planning on spending on technology upgrades... went somewhere else, instead ?
I'm not emotional. I don't have a dog in this hunt.
" why don't you think that the management is trying its best to save the company?"
Because... "I can't assume that" ?
I think claims for salary owed should come ahead of creditors...
Doesn't mean the courts don't "make mistakes" that favor big banks. And, bankruptcy can't make money appear that doesn't exist...
But, you should expect to have a need to ride herd on the claims that are submitted... The court won't make them pay salary if they don't submit the documents showing that its owed. You already know this management will do whatever the banks want, and not what they should in meeting obligations to shareholders and others.
That's why you see the banks squeezing this company in the way that they are... outside of BK... so they can strip that $ for themselves... before someone else allocates it to someone else instead.
Bottom line... you need to look out for you... because they won't.
If you shouldn't trust them. Don't.
"I am not sure whether the management is lying/dishonest or not. I just cannot assume that"
LOL!!!
Why ? Who's holding a gun to your head... making you unable to "assume" that any of the lies you've ever been told... are lies ?
People do naturally have an ability to exercise judgment... and do not have "assumption prevention devices" that prevent it... and, even if the judgment they have is often not good, you can't stop most people from using it.
So, I think what you're really saying... is that CPIC management are unwilling to be honest about what is known to be true... which leaves them fictionalizing the need to be "unable to assume" what they know is true.
Some people use the judgment they have... in judging things well.
CPIC management do not.
That they've REWARDED management who CLEARLY lack judgment... and are highly challenged in the truthiness department to boot... appears to me to be what is killing the company.
And, it's not exactly a mystery, either...
The cameras, hard drives, software, and communications devices might not be "up to standards"... but the management... belong on the junk pile...
"Also megapixels matters much less than things like sensor size or lens quality."
Check out Nokia's phone with the 41MP sensor ? It's not overly limiting... and it clearly is "first generation". Cell phones have lens quality issues... but that's not because there aren't any improvements that could be made in them...
The camera companies are at risk of being put out of business given the pace of development in the tech, and their own cluelessness in relation to webiness.
Lighting matters, yes... but, obviously, the biggest factor in quality is the knowledge, skill and ability of the photographer... who knows about lighting, etc.
CPIC's biggest problem... is that they're clueless about where the value still left in their business... comes from.
You can't fix stupid.
"the servers in the studios were filling up the hard drives too fast"
LOL!!!
How big are the drives ?
I bought a bunch of 1 TERRABYTE drives for my home computers recently... and paid less than $100 each for them.
That they would not fix the problem, but instead choose to hobble the business by limiting the product quality... while the market is moving rapidly in the opposite direction... ?
Totally clueless management. Penny foolish and pound foolish.
You should DOCUMENT that...
Check your state law... to see what they're REQUIRED to do by law.
Particularly if they file BK... the claims will be settled by a judge and not by the company... and the claims made for wages owed should be pretty high up on the list. If you can't trust them to file obligations honestly ? Better be prepared to file your own with the court.
That's unacceptable...
Calling out people who are struggling with difficult decisions that they have to make when their lives are being disrupted, only because the company is failing and is forcing them to make those decisions, people who have EVERY REASON to be negative and angry about that... and calling them "childish losers"... ?
Despicable.
CPIC management do seem to be abusive of their employees... and seem to expect that they have a right to be.
Many employees may even be conditioned to "take it"...
But, the management don't have the right to do that HERE... and no one here has to "take it"...
Personal attacks are against the site rules.
"I understand. But, this is not a place to ask."
They'd not be asking about other guesses on the "time to die" counter here... if management were remotely close to doing their jobs by communicating WHAT THEY CAN... TRUTHFULLY.
They're not. Instead, management are being dishonest, even by NOT communicating...
It's not like it's a secret that there are "difficulties". By refusing to be up front with people (who aren't stupid) even about that, they're making things worse with what they are doing. Seeing how they're failing... even in failing ? It's another reason to expect that the company WILL fail... that management are unable to be honest about the situation... but continue lying about it in every way they can.
From an investors perspective...
These things always take a longer than reasonable time to die.
They can twist in the wind for a long time... often in the effort hoping to avoid liabilities that will be realized with a failure.
They're just trying to minimize the cost of everything, now, looking for the cheapest possible pine box, while hoping to keep the boat afloat with the latest bit of bubble gum chewed being applied the most recent leak to appear. They'll do what they have to, when they have to, unless they can avoid that, too, and otherwise won't do anything else.
One of the red flags you look for in any company, is their track record on SEC reporting. Lots of missed filing deadlines is a red flag. Lots of corrections to filings is a red flag.
CPIC's annual reports should come out sometime around April. Probably won't though.
Since 2007, they've NEVER filed a single annual report that didn't have to be amended, later. In 2012, they announced they'd file late, in April, filed late, in May, and then still had to amend it in June. So, you might read into that something about the ability of management to predict or plan anything, even when they should be able to ?
Don't expect they're going to be able to predict when they're going to die... any better than they predict anything else.
I'm guessing that a current issue for them... more given the change made in insurance... is that they're trying to avoid having to address any of the impact that the passage of Obamacare requires in the new year.
Given the obvious weaknesses... I don't think this business is capable of surviving if they have full time employees, who they have to provide coverage for. So, even if the bailing wire and chewing gum they have CAN keep it afloat and drifting a while longer... that might be an issue for a lot of people... who are expecting any sign of a "return to health" might mean things go back to the way they were. I think that's not likely. They'll save too much money on not providing benefits to want to continue providing them... when doing so will cost WAY more than before.
Even if the management isn't thinking about that... the banks probably are... and, the banks will be considering the legal liabilities they'll be carrying, too...
If there are shareholders lawsuits continuing... there have to be court filings happening that are public documents that should be getting posted here. The timelines in the court proceedings might provide clues on timing... that you won't get without considering them... and court proceedings often reveal a lot of other stuff that management would rather not have revealed...
I know that's not "an answer"...
If I were considering this for investment potential, still, I'd be all over the court filings looking for clues... and I'd be posting about them here. I'm not finding it useful to think about that... but, if you are an employee, you're still "invested"... and I'd think you'd be well served by being as well informed as possible.
Well, I can guarantee you that many small shareholders are being hurt, and some will be losing their life savings because they invested here... while the big investors were more aware of the problems, sooner, and were fully hedged to prevent themselves from being hurt, and are probably profiting from the failure, not being hurt by it. That's not anything unique to CPIC... that's just market reality these days.
FWIW, I'm neither one of those. I'm not losing anything here, not being hurt by the failure, and I'm not making anything here. I don't own shares... and I'm not short... I'm just "watching".
I do that a lot with companies in trouble... looking for opportunities where the extreme in pessimism is excessive resulting in share prices that offer a bargain, in spite of the difficulties, which will matter if they "fix" it.
Here, I doubt they're going to fix it. It is as I said... watching in fascination to see if the train wreck you can see coming is going to be a bad at is seems like it must be. Hard to look away... even knowing people are going to be hurt.
Un-frickin believable...
Meanwhile, you can buy a cell phone with a 41 MP sensor in it...
And, you can take pictures, zoom in on them without a problem.
They appear to be unaware that technology changes.
The patent covers "switching inside the range of the possible".
They changed "the range of possibility" to mean "a fixed distance you have to measure" and then claimed (wrongly) that since CLYW has to measure, and (wrongly) that they don't have to measure, even though they are switching inside the range of the possible, and using distance like any other must, their switching isn't covered.
It's a simple argument... and its total bullshit.
That's easy...
Quit waiting for it.
It's never gonna happen.
This thing is dead.
And it's gonna stay dead.
Until the SEC de-registers it.
There is no "shell" play here.
Too many liabilities.
So, anything that "happens" here... is a scam ? Not sure why anyone would find that confusing ?
Seems a tad unusual:
"Stockholders will need to register at the Annual Meeting to attend the Annual Meeting. If your shares of common stock are not registered in your name, you will need to bring proof of your ownership of those shares to the Annual Meeting in order to register to attend and vote. You should ask the broker, bank or other institution that holds your shares of common stock to provide you with a valid proxy card to permit you to vote at the Annual Meeting. Please bring that documentation to the Annual Meeting."
Gotta have a ticket to attend ?
"The proxy statement and 2012 annual report to stockholders are available at http://www.timberline-resources.com/main.php?page=119."
Both DEF 14A and DEFA 14A on Edgar.
Interesting...
Paint job... on a 600 share trade... after the bell ?
LOL!!!
"the Monterey Shale, whose untapped deposits are estimated at 15.4 billion barrels, or more than four times the reserves of the Bakken Shale in North Dakota"
I don't see much that has occurred that I think would tend to lessen the passion of those defending the patent.
I'd guess they're likely more convinced than ever both that the caus is right, and that it can and will be won.
I do think there are "eyes" on this... that will not tolerate seeing obvious error, a shrug, and a retreat...
I do think it's obvious... but may be worth pointing out, again.
This company was hijacked... by people who didn't want Parker succeeding in proving up larger value... for some REASON.
And, the biggest aspects of that... were integrity and fidelity.
Parker... had them.
The backstabbers... don't.
Yes, I agree with every element in that... including how RIGHT Parker was in addressing the need for the $ he spent in exploration, how obvious the benefit of Parker's skilled and insistent leadership is now, and how COMPLETELY STUPID and pathetic the wannabees who stabbed him in the back look now...
My criticisms of Parker... were that I wanted him doing even MORE in exploration, with something of a shift in focus between definition of nearer term reserves, new effort in better definition of the "potential" of the entire property, as with a couple of "wildcat" holes drilled on trend at kilometer spacing... and a far more focused and hard-headed effort made in development of an understanding of the geology of the deposit, with work focused on finding more "high grade" ores...
Comparing what USGIF has now as KNOWNS... to what they had prior to Parker pushing the exploration agenda, and succeeding ?
The best aspects of this company now... are STILL things we owe to Parker... while all of the negativity, and the massive COST increases, the dilution in value shareholders have already lost, and that they will, given the negative shift in trust has been imposed on shareholders by the "wannabees"... and their looting ?
People here know what I think... and why. I won't belabor it.
Management since Parker have been pathetic, abject failures... who have cost shareholders far more than they were worth.
Parker... left big shoes to fill, and they weren't close to being able to fill them.
"To thine own self be true?"
"Correct me if I am wrong"
You are wrong... in every element you've posted, recently.
First, do you know what the word "tangible" means ? It appears you do not. So, here's the Merriam-Webster:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tangible
SRSR's rock are tangible.
They are also recorded as assets. I've seen the documents recording them as SRSR's property at Geology Ontario, and you yourself, in a prior post, had just mentioned that they're recorded in the company's financials with a line item entry... and you gave us the number. So, according to YOU... they are recorded as assets.
They have been assets for over three years... owned by SRSR longer than that... and that doesn't matter to anyone, or make any difference to anyone, and claiming they have not been an asset for three years... doesn't even remotely begin to make sense ? I have no idea why you think that matters. It doesn't.
As far as uplisting, DMBAO points out they'll have billions in assets when the feasibility study is completed. Probably so.
But, of course, when they complete the deal they're discussing now, to finance the feasibility study... they'll instantly have $20 million paid in (very tangible) cash, more in receivables, and another $20 million in (also tangible) assets in their holding the remaining percentage ownership interest in the property, which they're only selling half of in the JV deal. The event of sale... puts a market price on that remaining asset value. The completion of the sale is a valuation event... making the asset worth that price the market proved it was worth. Of course, their remaining interest will actually be worth more than that portion that they sold, too... because by selling the straight interest, it converts a portion of their remaining interest into a higher value "carried to production" interest.
And, no, it is not an error in "claiming resources that he couldn't claim yet" to claim something that you just sold half of for $20 million plus, is worth $40 million plus.
As far as the rest... the math is pretty simple.
$20 million is greater than $2 million.
And, that's true whether the $20 million you are considering is the $20 million in cash, or the $20 million in asset value in the ownership interest in the property.
$40 million is also greater than $2 million.
They can uplist if they want... without any of those silly objections mattering... soon after they complete the deal... and they've not been saying they intend to uplist before that ?
They've also never said they intend to uplist on NASDAQ ? Don't know why its even being discussed ?
Unless they do it in Hong Kong or London... they may not uplist until after the CTO is history ?
As far as the CTO...
I, too, was concerned when I saw it appear. So, I conducted an extensive effort in DD to address the issues.
I confess that as I began to conduct that effort I was unhappy with the situation... but, as I dug into it... I was SHOCKED at what I found. Stunned. And outraged. I'm not going to flesh out every reason why... here... in detail... but...
The direct reason the CTO exists... is because Merle lives in B.C.
That, and because the B.C. Securities Commission is (or, certainly was back then) both corrupt and badly managed.
SRSR is not a B.C. company. It conducts no business within the Province. There is no valid reason for SRSR to report anything to, or pay anything to, the BCSC... which would only needlessly duplicate its efforts in Ontario, and cost them money for posting all those filings in B.C., for no reason, and for no benefit.
However, B.C. decided to coerce and blackmail as many small Canadian companies from the other Provinces as they could into paying filing fees to the B.C.S.C., even though they're not B.C. companies. So, they contrived to rule that since Merle lives in B.C., and since SRSR has a contract for services with Merle, the company has to be a fully reporting company in B.C... and pay them lots of money in filing fees.
It's total BS.
They're just conducting a shakedown... extorting money out of small companies... and imposing the costs of their own financial mismanagement of the B.C.S.C on those small businesses from other Provinces.
It's wildly dishonest. They're abusing their power, violating the public trust, and violating the public interest, in order to raise more money for the BCSC from wrongly imposed fees. Period. And, it's not just SRSR that has been swept up in their overly zealous fund raising efforts... the ONLY goal of which is to justify their practice of extortion in order to dramatically increase their filing fee revenues. One might like to see their internal memos on the subject. It would be fun to see them presented in court.
It's a scam. If it were a state doing that, in the U.S., the Feds would shut them down and prosecute them for fraud and extortion, abuse of power, etc. The corollary here would be if Delaware was making itself a pain in the ass, but got tired of corporations moving to Nevada because of it... so just started in, on some contrived pretext, to try to force Nevada corporations to still pay fees to Delaware anyway. But, in Canada, securities regulation is done by Provincial authority. Feds have no say.
In implementing the method, and then in the effort sustaining the CTO, to try to force SRSR into complying with their blackmail, the B.C.S.C failed to properly follow the law, and failed to follow their own regulations... in more than one instance.
I'd further argue (and have) that the methods they employed in selecting SRSR as a target for their shakedown were themselves corrupt, to the degree that they were perhaps criminal. (Which perhaps shouldn't be too surprising, when the agency itself is in the business of teaching them how to practice extortion... that some of the employees might think its OK to try to make something like that work for themselves, too ?)
It stinks like dead fish.
In any case... let's just say that some of their geology guys at the BCSC "got it badly wrong"... and that's why the "higher ups" had to "walk back" that subsequent CTO statement, remove the CTO based on the geology, and then apply the "corrected" CTO that focused only on the financial reporting issues, as a bureaucratic face saving measure.
And, that's still total BS... for the same reasons.
SRSR isn't a BC company...
The CTO is there... only because Merle lives in B.C.
That's a fact.
And, then, IMO, because the B.C. Securities Commission is both corrupt and badly managed...
I support the company in not spending a dime they don't have to, complying with the demands of the BCSC or addressing them. There is no benefit for the company in doing so.
I expect the company will easily be able to AFFORD complying with the requirements for removal of the "revised" CTO at some point.
I'll still be somewhat surprised if they DO move to remove it... prior to completion of the feasibility study.
They won't really need it removed... prior to the point where they need to go back to the markets for more money in an equity raise. Given the hostile money-grubbing regulatory environment in B.C., and the fact they may not ever need to do an equity raise ?
I suspect if they're patient... the issue will just go away for them at some point, either when the law is changed to restore balance and reason in lieu of administrative fiat, again preventing B.C. from extorting small companies in the other Provinces, or when the BCSC gets slapped down hard by a no nonsense judge in a higher court, who doesn't approve of overly convenient administrative "rulings" that are based mostly on agency heads demanding the revenue enhancing potential, rather than on any proper interpretation of the law, and the public interest in its maintaining basic integrity.
If the company opts to join with a large group of others in suing the BCSC for its errors... at some future point... instead of complying with their demands ? I'll support and applaud them for that, too.
FWIW, I applaud the company in refusing to gladly comply with the demands of the blackmailers... how-ever and where-ever they show themselves, while trying to take what is not rightly theirs.
I think shareholders patience with SRSR and their proper exercise of judgment, will also be well rewarded .
"company is seeking a special use permit for road access to haul the ore"
http://montanasnewsstation.com/news/butte-highlands-mine-projected-to-be-small-compared-to-modern-mining-standards/
Who knows, maybe that will be featured in the next conf call ?
"I'd like to show a little appreciation to..."
" we are a necessary evil for the shareholders to make money from "
To be clear... idn't any "shareholders" making money here now.
Shareholders don't benefit from management's many failures any more than employees benefit from management's abuses.
You guys (including management) are working for the banks, now... not shareholders.
However, just being good-natured about it... I still won't mind if you show me a "little appreciation"...
"Why show appreciation for a company who can't respect their employees enough to..."
My thought on reading that exchange about appreciation... was that most here appear they'd be willing to show the company a little appreciation... even if for most that means "appreciation" written in small letters on the middle fingernail.
As an investor/observer... I don't think employees owe "the company" any real debt in "appreciation"... for screwing up the company and driving it into the ground ?
If management had properly understood the "little appreciation" they were getting the last few years... this might have been salvageable.
For the rest, who'd prefer to avoid analysis of "what went wrong" while avoiding blaming anyone... I understand they're singing hymns on the aft deck.
The new strategy for adding value to junior/mid-tier gold
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013/01/30/michael-fowler-the-new-strategy-for-adding-value-t?t=mining-investments
Strangely enough, that "new strategy" looks tome quite a lot like the "old strategy" that USSIF USED TO HAVE... back when they had real management controlling costs, instead of promoters chasing the latest fad...
USGIF is actually LUCKY... that they dragged their heels so long in getting anything done... that the stupid concept of pairing prior management efforts that let costs run amok... with a strategy for "growing by acquisition" that was planned to happen at the top of the market... just didn't work out for them.
"So you need to revise your "sloppy sloppy" type wording in trying to make me look like a novice."
My comments were addressed to USGIF management. I don't naturally assume that your thinking has any impact at all on the company.
It should be clear enough that mine does not.
Sounds like a sincere question, so I'll take a rough hewn hack at it, while still leaving you to do your own specific analysis...
First, check out this link, which explains a lot:
http://www.goldminerpulse.com/blogs/junior-gold-explorer-valuations.php
For more, check out the links leading from there to others.
Then, when you have your fill of that, consider that the object in exploration stocks isn't to pay as little as possible for the proof in some number showing you where the puck used to be... but, to pick those that are higher potential candidates for rewarding you for anticipating properly where the puck is going to be...
Those who've been doing this for a while and have been succeeding... will tend to have a knack for timing, and for picking properties, or the owners of dirt to invest in, that have a lot more value in them than others have recognized...
The mantra in all exploration, including rank oil wildcats, as well as those looking around for metals, is "one hole away".
No one knows whats in a hole until its drilled... but, good explorers have a feel for where they should look for "more" that prior owners overlooked... and tend to be successful. I'm not saying they're using dowsing rods or being wild ass in guessing, rather than putting in a lot of hard work, and studying hard... learning more than others have about rocks, and where to look, how to look, where to drill and why, based on educated guesses generated from hard work, smarts, and experience. Not all explorers have equal ability in exploring... or in picking places where they might have better luck applying themselves than others have. There are intangible factors related to that... just as there are intangible factors related to many companies, that just mean investors like them, and are willing to pay more for them, for some unknowable reason. AAPL ? Really ?
As an investor, I'm always looking for BIGGER LEVERAGE...
You can get that with a gold property... that has lower grades, that aren't economic to mine at lower gold prices... that suddenly become remarkably interesting when prices have risen high enough that profits are possible, when they weren't a while before. Looking where the puck is going to be... instead of where it was.
This property has that aspect in its history. Pegasus mined it, back when gold prices were high... and folded it up when prices dropped. First Gold timed acquiring it well, to pick it up cheap after a long dormancy, and plan to profit when the puck in the price of gold was trending the right way, at the right time... but, they screwed it up... mostly by wasting time and money on stuff that didn't matter, while not getting done what did. Without getting it back in production timely enough on the budget they had, and unable to pay back the banks on loans... who'd lent them just enough to refurb the mill, but not enough to mine, again, or run the operations ? Totally ridiculous failure... that had nothing to do with the property, and everything to do with management, and the bank wanting to take the property from them rather than help them succeed. This should have made been an operating mine again, already, a couple of years back...
The price of gold now makes it viable.... and a small bit of effort in exploration has proved "more" and higher grades... while there is good potential for "more" still...
Beyond the not-profitable/profitable transition depending on prices rising... the next point of leverage available, is the transition from explorer to producer. The link shows the price gaps between them. It costs money to jump the gap. But, when you do that, and succeed... there's leverage in the price.
World's more to talk about... in what could go wrong...
The bigs are management risk, risk in geology, and finance risk.
Guys who know what they're doing, and have access to the money to do it... present less risk and offer a better chance of success.
Pegasus really knew what they were doing ? Still need the price of gold to support the operation, given the facts you have in the dirt. That leverage factor in the not-profitable/profitable transition... works both ways.
Here, you have price risk in known gold at lower grades... and geological risks in not having proven reserves, but, the effort made finding "more" and higher grades will reduce that risk, with success in exploration... while the relatively short time lines from here to production (in theory, at least) enables anticipating the leverage factor in the transition from explorer to producer.
If they succeed... and the price of gold support them... ?
If they don't, and gold tanks ?
What does your effort in doing the DD suggest will happen, here ?
And, then, whatever the effort in DD shows... you still have to determine both the potential, the risks, AND the opportunity cost, comparing this opportunity to other similar opportunities, while determining what price its worth... to you... to own this instead of that...
And, finally, the object is to buy low sell high... so, there's always an element of timing the markets to consider... including bigger market concerns, and also all of those issue specific risks related to timing the need for financing to make it happen, versus timing in share valuation. Miners not too much different than other stocks in relation to financing and dilution risks.
Bigger picture:
Are gold and gold stocks too pricey, and nearer a peak...
Or, are they beaten down and undervalued, as a class... and ready to be rediscovered by an entirely new generation of investors, as soon as they begin experiencing inflation and interest rates of 8% to 20% percent and higher, as happened here last during the Carter Administration, in the late 1970's ?
Your call on the crystal ball...
But, a hint... Gold has doubled in the last five years, while the national debt has grown more than that. The Senate just suspended the limits on borrowing more. The Fed is keeping interest rates near ZERO, and trying to find creative new ways to shovel masses of new money they just printed, from helicopters... and still make sure it all lands in the hands of a few giant banks, in time for paying out bonuses. And, there are a lot of mining companies out there that haven't gone up much, and more than a few that are trading lower now than they were five years ago. Producers have done better than the explorers, still, many of which are trading now for for tiny fractions of what they were 3 to 5 years ago, much less 10 years ago. It's like "someone" is betting gold prices won't be able to stay as high as they are, long enough... to allow todays explorers to reach production before the price moves lower ? Pretty hard to make a well informed call on mining stocks... without having considered where you think precious metals prices... and/or the relative value of the dollar... will be in the future.
" however it does not really matter "if" the price of silver is significantly higher than it is now. "
That's the same thinking that got them where they are now, from costs that were a lot closer to $12 not all that long ago.
Sloppy, sloppy thinking... to hope prices moving the right way will relieve the obligation of management to manage like COSTS matter...
IMO
"Now, of course, the POS has to cooperate."
I love the way POS is a double entendre, here. It always makes me have to stop and think about which use is being intended.