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Not going up today. Not time yet.
What news are you expecting? They are running trials. The earliest I mentioned months ago we can expect any type of price movement is end of 2nd quarter to mid 3rd quarter 2016 depending on trial results. This is on the long term path, no way around it. Flippers and day traders may have different thoughts.
At least. The options for the company then would expand greatly.
Let this period of blood in the streets run its course however long it lasts. China taking off controls on trading tomorrow should make things quite messy since there is no real sophistication in those retail markets yet. Should see some real panic and the day could be historically important in the sense that governments need to let free markets operate independently. Controls never work, putting the onus on the investor allows for far more effective risk assessment and thoughtfulness in investors. Makes markets less of a gamble. But as the saying goes, a falling tide lowers all ships. Right now the tide is going out at a rapid pace. As always in the end, stocks go up. Now the in vogue position is to scream This is the end! Stocks going down 80-90%, all is lost. Lots of noise, most of it nonsense of course. I suspect Xoma mgmt, employees and analysts have not jumped off the cliff, but instead are continuing on with their jobs with development, analysts and interpretation of results as they should be.
Meanwhile back to the business channels on the tube and the circus for entertainment.
Next week we have companies beginning to report earnings. We have the Super Bowl of Healthcare conferences beginning as well. We have had steady volume on weak pps and no news after a rebuilding of Xoma and follow through on the current direction by JV and PR. The groundwork has been laid for moving forward in 2016. China just announced that they are taking off the circuit breakers on trading for tomorrow. Good! About time. Let the market fix its own ills no matter how painful it is short term. We may see some last minute weakness to take advantage of the panic before next week. We should actually. It's how things are always done. Expect weakness today and tomorrow like I indicated previously.
FWIW, anyone who has wide diversification in the broader market now, I will wish you best of luck. Rough times ahead as 2016 will be a huge test of confidence. Initially everything gets hit, then the move to equities and sectors that will be seen as safe havens. Biotech, Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Discount Retailers are areas I usually look to during these times. In the initial stages, everything gets hit and falls. Money then finds its way to areas that must be used by people if not for anything else but survival. Food, Medicine and Heathcare are survival needs. It will get very very ugly first. Until people realize that the earth is not coming to an end, panic will rule the day. Best of luck to everyone. Hang in there.
You will continue to get your wish for much longer than you think. You should wait for better prices as the first quarter moves along. Results are the only saving grace, and that is still some time off it appears. Could be wrong, but when JV mentioned rebuilding after EyeGuard B results, then things were put on a much longer time line. But now is the time to build or add to positions in my opinion.
Look at the volume since December. A stock always moves into strong hands when there is no news and prices drift lower, always. There was no reason for the volume to be as strong as it was during the Holidays. Skeleton trading desks, no news, no nothing. But yet volume remained strong even during the week before Christmas and during the week of Christmas and New Years. What do you think the standing orders from the trading desk bosses were to the minions left to keep watch? Do nothing? Keep buying?
It would seem obvious.
Of course we can fall below 1.20. We have the JP Morgan Healthcare conference starting on Jan 11 in San Francisco. It's the biggest one of the year and you would think that there is going to be some volatility going into it. There always is. Plus after EyeGuard B, do you really think Xoma is going to say or indicate anything to go back on the radar of the scum attorneys who are always circling like sharks? They have learned their lessons well. Try contacting IR and getting anything but the most vanilla of responses. I have said before that they have totally changed their business acumen in response to history. Expect tight lipped and very matter of fact updates and trial results that should remind you of say, Novartis? It all bodes well going forward in my view. Job one, move from development into commercialization so real consistent earnings become the norm.
You want to buy cheaper? You'll get your chance until trial results are made public.
Suffering from PUPS I see.
Huge volume surge in the last half hour of trading. A/M currently at 1,377,726. Panic buying or panic selling? We may find out next week.
I said nothing would be announced at this conference, but that never stops the unfounded hype from pulling things out of thin air anyway. Nothing will come from the December conference as well as should be expected. If you want to possibly look forward to something, then focus on the JP Morgan Healthcare conference in January of 2016. Otherwise known as the Super Bowl of Healthcare conferences, an announcement there would carry more weight and have much greater exposure. Clearly many people who have no clue about this sector trade it. Based on what, I have no idea. You attend conferences to build your network and update or reaffirm your pathway targets. You announce meaningful progress and or results if that data can be shared, and you do it where you have everyone's attention as to get the most bang for your buck. This constant immature dribble that something has to be announced at any event attended by the company or its disappointing clearly demonstrates a total lack of understanding as to how the industry works. My question remains, what information do you possess that makes you have such expectations? Are you in the board room? Are you an executive with the company? Is it any wonder why most investors never make money in stocks? The company will release data when it is available and understood. You and I will never know when that will happen, and as with all trials, the science is not exact, just like all patients do not react the same, and just like no two fingerprints are the same.
When did common sense leave the discussion on Xoma? If you are disappointed for not getting some juicy tidbit of news, then why are you even here? To have that expectation going into this week, makes no sense.
Deep and Robust Pipeline, aggressive action by Xoma to rebuild and laser focus on their best candidates, deal with a major player (Norvatis) in the space of which the importance is not even close to being understood, credit line extended to make sure pipeline is developed and potential for skin in the game, etc. Prior to the Eyeguard B results, who had any idea that the pps would drop to the levels we saw? No one, why? Many reasons obviously, but the key take away is that now no one really can imagine any price target out of the 2.00 range. Again, most have no idea and will be left behind wondering how they missed it this time as well. There is no surer sign that a stock will make a very nice move, then when it acts like it can't. Notice how the stock trades in very tight ranges for extended periods during the day whether the price eventually closes up or down. It's telling a story, a very compelling one from where I sit. No one can ever know the timing on price moves, but what the fundamentals are saying, along with what the chart is saying, is classic textbook stuff. We still are in a trading phase, but the volatility is starting to moderate, the indicators are in pre-launch mode, and the next intermediate term will be setting things up nicely for 2016 and beyond. Of course the trials need to meet with success as with any Biotech, but the addition of Norvatis was the game changer. Think of in terms of a Prodigy and his or her Mentor. Right or wrong, this is how I see it. As 2016 unfolds, I anticipate positive outcomes for Xoma by virtue of how the landscape has changed, and assets now in place.
Thank you for your kind words. I too have a decent position in Xoma that I believe is absolutely warranted based on my research. My average is in a comfortable range considering this is one of those wild Biotechs. Having said that, it is my observation that a majority are in a substantial negative position as a result of the Eyeguard B results. I want to emphasize this point very clearly. I did not buy Xoma based on the Eyeguard potential. I would never look at any Biotech that is a one trick pony. Your chances of suffering a catastrophic loss are close to 100% of losing 100% of your investment. Diversification does not just apply to one's portfolio solely, but within an investment as well, especially Biotech and Mining stocks. Xoma's pipeline first attracted me to the stock. To be successful in Biotechs, you need to have multiple safety nets or a deep and robust pipeline. When you get big enough like Norvatis for example you are diversifying by acquiring these small development Biotechs. It's not rocket science. My confidence is in the pipeline and the focus on the most promising candidate within that pipeline which will be changing during the trials. That is a very fluid situation in a company like Xoma. Having the ability to be small and nimble enough to move on from disappointments which always occur and should be part of your risk assessment is key. Taking effective and proper action to advance goals that meet the objective are to be embraced, and not criticized in my view. You evaluate, reboot, and execute a new plan and layout the pathway critiquing and eliminating the weak links where necessary and replacing with stronger un-breakable ones. This sector is by its very nature is incredibly risky and results are always uncertain and never guaranteed. Stick with those development and commercial companies that mitigate risk by spreading it over a wide array of potential candidates and drugs currently in their suite of offerings. The past is in the past, Norvatis is evidence of that. Do these negative people really believe that Norvatis and Cowen and Co haven't done complete risk assessment ad nauseam? Simply put, they have extended a small amount of their treasure and a large amount of their time to have access to a substantially larger treasure in the future. Best of luck in your investment journey as well.
Total nonsense, but live in the past if that's your thing. Back up your claims about being a puppet of the BOD. Who on the Board specifically are you referring to? Names please so that can be vetted. Since your hoping that Norvatis steps forward, who saw that deal thru to its completion?, Mickey Mouse? Throwing out silly claims gives no credibility to you or your position. Xoma is being rebuilt with verifiable DD. Do you or anyone else think that with all the Ambulance chasing attorneys watching for any slip whatsoever to re push on their so called investigations that Varian or the BOD would be that stupid? How many CEO's are sitting in jail for such actions that draw that kind of attention? It never ceases to amaze me what gets thrown out to create doubt and or fear. If you are angry or sitting on evidence that would bring attention to and effectively change Xoma's management team, then by all means bring it out and take action. One last time, understand what having Norvartis on board with skin in the game means, and then wait. Or take your loss and try your luck somewhere else. I have traded Biotechs for years and years. Drugs fail in late phase 3 all the time under the guidance of some world class doctors and scientists. We would not have any disease at all if they were perfect, they're not. It's called the "Practice" of medicine, not the exact science of medicine. Nothing is guaranteed ever. Varian is not the first to lead a company that struggles for years until breakthroughs finally come. Anyone investing in this sector should know that first and foremost or they have no business putting a dime into any investment in this space.
I'm not surprised, not at all.
So is the copy and paste timeline every 2 to 3 weeks? Am I close? You should at least have the courage of your convictions and sue the man for fraud that your in essence accusing him of. File a complaint, call the SEC, include Norvatis in your efforts since they are clearly according to you not acting in the best interest of their shareholders by dealing with this man. Meanwhile while your at it, ask Cowen and Co why they would align themselves with such a character. Get back to us soon please. Your oh so valuable DD would be of help to some I'm sure, maybe on planet Mars. Wasted post, geez!
After this mornings panic, the volume shut off like a water faucet. Look at the range since. What's happened to the volume? Will it pick up going into the close? Does it matter? The story today is as plain as the nose on your face, but very few will understand. That by the way is a good thing. I concur with your thought, draw you own conclusions. Painfully obvious.
Wrong. We don't know what he knew when, and if you do you are privy to inside information. Second they have in essence a credit line which is untapped since they have made no public statement to verify any change. You are not willing to accept that Xoma is in a very fluid situation now that Norvartis is involved. That's fine but are you serious in the sense that if you were to say announce the intention to marry your true love one day and then find out a week later that there has been unfaithfulness, in which you would obviously now have to make a change to your original proclamation, and then have people be disappointed in you for making the change? Would you be just as upset if there were a change from their stated objective to be a commercial operation by accepting a buyout offer at 10.00/share? I doubt it. Point is if people don't recognize that conditions on the ground are very fluid at this point in time, then your stuck in the mud. Again, the Norvatis deal changed everything. Study them, understand them, and these petty disappointments will not cloud your thinking. Said another way, the job of management is to manage. Add to the tool chest in order to operate from a position of strength. After Eyeguard B, the vultures were ready to feast. JV emphatically said "Make no mistake, we will rebuild this company", remember? Has he done just a little bit to move in that direction? I would say yes.
Your very welcome, happy to do it. It was pretty obvious to me in the premarket where on a news day, especially one that has that negative stigma attached to to the reaction is going to be a standard one. Most if not all the large volume trades were going off at or near the low for the session. Then comes the actual market open and see the reaction and average down. Xoma was on sale this morning and could be for most of the day, we don't know yet, but I would not be surprised if we did close green. I'm not expecting that though. Think of it this way, it's like taking out a equity credit line on your house. It's available if needed. If it's used, then yes you have diluted some value from the property initially. If you need to sell near term then you may not get the value back. Unless you are charging for house tours, you have no revenue on the property. Xoma has a multi million dollar untapped market staring them squarely in the face which will never dry up. This is why I repeat often to the point of nausea that if you have a longer term view, then like earnings, today's news is meaningless. We start to get results next year. Xoma is streamlined for where it sees strong growth. Support and funding on multiple fronts now in place. Just take a breath and let the journey continue.
Some bounce huh? A credit line was agreed to today, nothing more. Not one share sold, and I think highly unlikely one ever will. Decisions have effects, if you understand the markets usual lack of understanding, then you have an advantage right? Will be interesting to see where we close today. Most other forums I follow have begun the obituary talk. Think they might have an agenda? Always works, always will. Fascinating stuff. So everyone who wanted out is out. The stock pivoted at 1.16 Market Makers had some fun, maybe more to come. Big bounce tells a story indeed.
Congratulations then. As long as the price stays weak, volume should be blockbuster. I don't concern my self with the daily gyrations so much except when an exceptional opportunity presents itself. None of this will be remembered once results are known. Trade away and profit along the path where times a plenty exist as well as famine areas. Just the way markets work.
Assuming nothing is changing and the situation is static, then your right. Are we to assume that the situation IS static and not fluid? That may be a misreading of real time events now. I would not assume that things are not moving along at a brisk pace. Wording can be very telling. Using the term "Laser Focused" means something. Why not say "We are focused or We are very focused" instead. The term "Treatment" is now associated with the upcoming trials and not "Prevention". I see these as telling signs. You are correct in your point, but when conditions change, you adjust as well. Simply put, Xoma has a vision however one defines it. The vision is to become a viable commercial business addressing serious needs as it relates to these orphan diseases. You define your path and put the necessary infrastructure in place to achieve the end objective. The path is never smooth of course. We don't sit in the boardroom, so we don't know. The fundamental picture has not changed, the tools are. It's to be expected. To build a structure requires many tools that are not used 100% of the time. It's the availability of those tools that when they are called upon, are there. Without them, building comes to halt.
Start nibbling, blue light special now in full swing.
Biggest buys coming at the lower prices, shocked, who could have guessed that? Lambs being lead to slaughter.
Most are uninformed on tactics. Ask yourself, why this, why now? You just got 37 million, what could be your reasoning? Simple, commercialization. Is that not the point of all of this? Yes, epic opportunity to buy the cheap ones. Most won't, the smart imo will. Will join them if I like what I see today, could get some follow thru tomorrow. Way too early to tell.
Someone just got a steal at 8:37 for 10,700 shares. Let the panic selling begin. Now expecting talk of Reverse Splits, Bankruptcy, Dilution, greedy Management you name it, all the usual suspects. Market Makers must be foaming at the mouth giddy. Fasten your seat belts kids, should be a fun day. Really a non event, but markets need something, anything no matter how dumb. Smart actually, play on people's emotions and fears with tactics that work from lack of understanding and away we go.
Update:
More steals as we speak, beautiful. Here is the bottom line folks, Xoma sees where it is going and it is acquiring ammunition now for potential future moves. Doing it this way is a win win for them and Cowen and Co if they actually execute any shares for cash at some point. Also it strengthens their bargaining position with Norvartis in a buyout scenario. You want to see the beginning of a bidding war? You got one. Xoma can now bring the Endocrine trials fully circle into 2019 which is where Wedbush sees the commercial benefits happening. Just my opinion of course. Remember JV's words, "Laser Focused".
Interesting move by the company. Notice they have not sold a single share, but reserve the right to do so from time to time. Today will provide an excellent opportunity to buy the dip, should be a good one. Watch the reaction, most will not understand what this really means. Equity financing is one thing, positioning to possibly do some small amounts of equity financing is a whole other animal. Put out the bait, draw in the prey, and fill up the stomach. Norvartis and Cowen and Co and others will get an early Christmas present today and Friday, maybe longer. If you go by the CC last week, now the company effectively has access to anywhere roughly 100-120 million in capital without actually doing much. Impressive. Cowen and Co really wants Xoma badly and quickly to have made this arrangement. Short term, some pain, but Xoma, Norvatis, Cowen and Co and others are not looking short term. The day traders and flippers will panic like always. Long term means nothing to them.
Yes there have been all sorts of rumors floated on other forums time and time again with total disregard for what is discussed in the quarterly calls or even after the Eyeguard B miss. This is counterproductive to the extreme. Take today's action in the afternoon from roughly 12 pm until close. For the majority of the time we traded in a 1 cent range 1.45-1.46 for hours, as tight a range as you can practically have without going fractional. So what does that mean? A tight spread or a wide one, what does that traditionally mean? Point is any little nuance can be overblown, disregarded or whatever. Discussed or not, the focus remains on the Norvatis deal. Not to long ago they were listed as a competitor to Xoma! Imagine that, a quarter of a trillion dollar company a competitor to a tiny biotech firm in development and not commercialization at all. Now, the competitor becomes a partner and strokes a check for operations that help to serve it's interests as highly meaningful results are awaited. What does that sound like to anyone? A rumor? Hardly. A foot in the door? To what end? Bottom line, what is Norvatis's end game? Xoma will stay in this trading pattern until the news comes out that changes things. I again submit that if everyone would study the history of Norvartis and its business model in this area, the answers are punch in the face obvious. In the meantime, trade the chart if you want. That will pass the time for now.
I disagree. I see no evidence of that before any results are known well into next year. Why these comments are made and even given any attention is beyond me. The expectation is that right now the only news will be the quarterly reports and nothing else. The have to enroll and begin the trial which won't commence in any meaningful way until next year. Results sometime mid to year end at best. Where do you come up with this pie in the sky garbage.
Pretty strong possibility we stay in a tighter range for the foreseeable future. Xoma obviously changes that with news, but I'm not expecting any news near term. Will build a strong chart and potential for the next leg up. The key is and will be the relationship with Novartis. Once everyone clearly understands the outcomes they get when making this type of partnership, then everyone will sleep a little better I think. No one, I repeat no cuts a check for 37 million blindly. I submit they know exactly what they have going on here.
Looks like it may be setting up for a down day again. Make the pre market appear strong, suck a bunch of investors in during the morning and then walk down the pps to hit their stop losses which they will invariably and foolishly place with their brokers. The trading pattern continues for now. Buy the dips and accumulate for the time being. Strengthen or build your position now in my opinion if that's in the cards for anyone.
Best of luck, the next leg up should retest the 2 level. No way to know the timing, but shortly I would think. Just can't ignore the Norvatis deal or brush it aside. Carries lots of weight, but not being focused on yet obviously.
Low volume. Being walked down for the next move up whenever that comes. If xoma was news driven, we would not be at these levels. Charts now rule.
You already know the answer, down, no rally today. It's trading in a range until it stops, meaningless imo.
Xoma is as I have mentioned in the recent past for now is a trading stock. It is driven by technicals and not fundamentals. Play the swings if that's your thing and mark time until updates on results come. The stock is range bound and will remain that way until more on the pipeline is released. No way to know when that comes. The talk of a buyout is too early and meaningless now. It's time will come. What we do know is that quarterly results will come on their schedule and not anyone else's. Rumors excite the flippers and day traders only. You play the game, or you watch.
Very much in a clear trading phase. Some volatility to be expected with chart points carrying much weight for the time being. Buy dips to add and sell the rally points if that's your thing. Lots of whipsawing action would be my expectation. Sit back and enjoy the show.
Little surprised so far, but it's early yet. We all know it's way undervalued and that Friday's action was fraudulent at best. These things take time to shake out, but who knows. We just have be patient with Xoma and let the fundamentals be the drivers they should be.
Yes, we will see how long it takes, but I suspect today will be down as well as the week. We've seen this before. Xoma is not trading on fundamentals clearly for now.
Most of the larger volume trades occurring at the low price this morning. Building for the next trade run in a couple of weeks it would seem. Most likely a down week this week to set the tone. Got to get everyone scared and or so negative that they won't jump in. This week will be a transfer of shares from weak and nervous to strong and patient. Xoma in a trading pattern for the next several months.