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That is right. If you read my post you will see that i said it has always been a risk and nothing has changed, thus freaking out now is unwarranted. I was simply trying to maintain perspective. Instead of seeing that you see one negative thing and discount the whole post.
Are you saying investors do not see that as a risk? It is very comon for investors to be skeptical of closely held companies. Add to that the main owner is domiciled in Nigeria. I am a hopeful investor in this company, but I choose not to ignore reality
Some thoughts that might add some perspective to today’s news/plummeting share price.
1.) The two main risks with this company are, and have always been that a) there is little or no oil in the JDZ, and b) that the owner is a Nigereian who owns a majority of the shares, and can possibly work a side deal to benefit himself without benefiting the company. Today’s news does not alter those risks one way or the other.
2.) Although volume has picked up, as a percentage of the float, volume is still de minimus. When any news of substance is announced (good news or bad) tens of million of shares will be traded. While today’s trading is not encouraging, it is still being done at the retail level, and it is institutional investors that will move this stock in a meaningful manner.
3.) This project at best is something that they are expecting to fund with capital they expect to be able to raise through JDZ results. At worst, they will borrow more money for this boondoggle, but again, the effect on the overall outlook for the company is negligible. I believe this either show that Offor is actually trying to build a real oil company, or it shows that management is just trying to justify their existence to the world by being able to point to something that they are doing, rather than just sitting around waiting for their partners to say something.
I am concerned that Offor will make some side deal which will squeeze us out, and that the Chinese will wait until the absolute last minute possible to release information (of course it goes without saying that I am concerned there is no oil). But at the end of the day, eventually something will happen, and as long as drilling returns some positive results, I think the share price will go up, even if it doesn’t fulfill our wildest dreams. Good luck to all. Happy Thanksgiving.
No conspiracies? No secret underhanded backroom dealings? No puppet masters of the share price? Decisions based on actual data? You are talking crazy!!
I am not meaning to be negative, I am just stating that a couple more months without any official statement is not out of the ordinary. Thus, if we haven't heard anything by the new year it is not indicative of anything ... Good or bad. I am not trying to make a prediction.
A long winter indeed. Long and cold. If only we had some oil to use for warmth. :)
This is just food for thought. BP spudded it's well in the Tiber prospect sometime in march, but did not pr the fact that it had a major find until september 2. This was a 6 month lag time from drilling to pr on a major find. Under that timeline we would not necessarily hear anything definite until feb.
You have to love trading. The guy that bought at 55 cents has already made a 14% return
You are right. If todays Announcement was realy good news or bad news, then we would see tens of milions of shares traded. Todays drop is just people figuring out that there is not going to be a mulyi billion dollar buyout this month and taking gains from the early summer. We are only in the third inning in this game. Still lots of drilling, testing, and gamesmanship to be had before big investors start buying up shares.
The article said 23.49%, but it is the chronicle so an error would notbe a surprise. Either way, one can still do the math to find a valuation.
Xom is buying kosmos share of a 1.8 bill brl field off Ghana for 4 bill. Kosmos owns 23%. Not an exact approximation but it is a good comp for approximating erhe value once drilling results are in. Article is on chron.com for any one interested
I read the politco.com article. I think this paragraph was very good for us.
"But the jury rejected Jefferson’s arguments, convicting him on bribery, racketeering and money laundering charges. In all, Jefferson was convicted on 11 of the 16 counts he faced; the jury rejected allegations that Jefferson had violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act."
ERHE was being investigated for FCPA violations in connection with Jefferson. If he is acquitted on those violations, it would be more difficult to come after erhe
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/25850.html#ixzz0NMcQEdfJ
you are crazy if you think this can go "sub-penny". It is worth 4 cents in cash alone. For this to drop much farther one would have to assume that it's current rights are worth nothing and that the EEZ rights are worth very little. That would be a very bad assumption
If there is one good thing about this stock is that it helps to develop a thick skin for taking hits.
It is still a great opportunity. You can get the rights to many 100's of millions of barrels of oil for 28 cents. I would like to double down, but my wife will be very angry if I buy more. Like everyone, I really just want to see this investment come to fruition. However, though I rarely post, I think this stock is worth owning just so you have a reason to read this board. It is always entertaining.
You are right. It is not actually another dealy. I was just really hoping to hear a firm announcement on an ROO that would start drilling soon, and now it sounds to me like addax is back peddling.
I am not posting crap. I am just frustrated that they are backtracking on the ROO. I am also watching the news about the credit crunch and speculating that their credit might be tightening, as it is with many other companies good and bad. It doesn’t take much for banks to start pulling lines of credit, ask Lehman. Not trying to start rumors, just trying to figure out why there is another delay.
I would just like to see some good news in print one day.
They've got nothing. They let another one go. I wonder if the can't get financing anymore?
The market obviously thinks something is very wrong with one of our key partners. Not good. At least we still have anadarko
I don't understand why we are still in the 20's. In March, when it was thought drilling would start in 4th quarter of 08, we were 7 months away from drilling, and we hit 61 cents. Even if there is no ROO (fingers crossed there is), in 7 months we will be very close to the AA comencing drilling in our blocks.
We are almost certainly within a year of drilling. Oil is at 100 a barel, and while short term fluctuation is probable, in the long term oil will stay at least in the 90's and will probably climb. The real variables are how much oil is there, and how long will it take to start drilling. Neither of those uncertainties justify such a low price in my view.