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So any thoughts on what this does today?
I could see it falling on yet another loss/“transition quarter” and I could see it jumping on the big increase in backlogs at present.
Thoughts?
Another issue is whether they can get their margins up. With a lower price and higher operating costs, they need much higher sales to get back to the profitability that they had prior to their ipo.
And they keep promising on this yet no showing of improvement.
So not sure what this is going to do tomorrow. The big increase in backlog is really nice, but there is no hard evidence of profitability. And this isn’t going to go up or even stay where it is if that prospect seems to never emerge. At a 20 p/e they need to make about 7.5 cents per quarter to even justify current price.
So I’m really hoping we are one quarter away and done with the endless “transition quarters”
Well so much for that. (And for trusting 3x run rate = 1.5 x 3= 4.5). Though the big jump in backlogs is nice.
Will have to see what happens on the call.
So what’s everyone’s guess on earnings?
I’m hoping $7.5 million sales. Not so sure on earnings but holding that sales number would translate into 6-7 cents at least.
I’m assuming that’s an algorithm simply based on when they released last year. I’m wondering if anyone’s asked the IR people anything on when to expect.
And there hasn’t been anything from the company yet on when the release will be, right?
I’ve had similar thoughts given than while sales are to rebound the higher sales team costs and higher r&d means even if gross margin returns, they are going to require higher sales to even more thrier previous earnings numbers.
It’s tough to get a fundimantal valuation on this for the time being but if they do 7 million in sales in q1 assume the average gross margin of the past 4 quarters, extrapolate last quarter’s general and administrative costs and r&d rate, then that would translate into about 5-6 cents earnings. Similar to their q1 2017 rate, despite a y/y sales increase.
So the bet here I think it really on speculation of can they continue fast sales growth into 2019? I tend to think that is work getting the share price at least back to their IPO valuation. At that point I will consider lightening up.
Thanks for the heads up. Looking forward to reading it tomorrow.
Has there been any confirmation about q1 earnings coming out end of month? Or is that just the assumption based on last year’s timing?
Beyond all the new contracts and potential new business, I noticed that they didn’t say anything on the cc re: any potential rebound with their previous main tier 1 carrier (Verizon). Is everyone assuming that they won’t be coming back at all now? I seem to recall that a couple quarters ago they talked as if they expected an eventual rebound - that Verizon pulling back was only temporary.
If this indeed does trend up today and over the next couple weeks, it will be quite impressive that people are taking the new contracts and 2nd shift as more important than the bad earnings. Would suggest that we may have just turned the corner, if it holds.
Well, looks like we’re going sub $4 tomorrow.
3 yr contracts are good. New contracts on Sri Lanka and Namibia good to hear. Though little info on what that translates to. Good to hear they are expanding to another production shift (wouldn’t do that unless actually have orders coming). Though disappointing to get more excuses on delays and higher r&d and customization costs. So still another quarter of having to believe promises. They still have no hard evidence of any kind of material improvement.
I think this is going to continue to hurt this quarter unless they release some tangible news.
Well at current price of $4.16, subtracting the $1.36 cash per share and the market is valuing the actual company at $2.80.
Even with pretty conservative forward P/E ratios for small caps, of 15 and 20 respectively, that would require annual earnings of only $0.19 or $0.14, respectively. Or $0.047 and $0.035 quarterly per share.
So if that makes sense, the current valuation is assuming this company doesn’t actually earn much going forward. If they show some evidence that they are close to getting back to earning quarterly $0.10 - $0.12 per share, this thing is going to take off.
So what are peoples’ best guess on earnings?
Similar to last quarter - modest loss? A return to modest profitability - finally off the bottom? A blow out quarter - the end of Q4 really turned turnaround?
Well, almost there...
No news. So little volume. Though still down day after day. Almost is a straight line. Not exactly random walk.
How low can this thing keep going?
Well this sure is disappointing these past number of days.
There’s no new info, right? This is probably just technically driven drift? I have been noticing that it almost always closes at the last second for some reason at the bid, not ever the ask.
Well, i don’t think we’re really going to have a sustained and meaningful move up until there is a good earnings report or some other substantial pr that shows an imminent improvement. Right now we just have great potential and a few quarters of promises. But nothing delivered yet. Hope it’s next quarter that we see something.
So much for this week.
Something is happening this morning.
From where I sit, there are all kinds of downsides to it for sure, but one good thing is cleaning up the corporate tax code to lower the rate while at the same time getting rid of common loopholes for multinationals. This is moving us to a territorial system, just like the rest of the developed world.
The current system is a mess that rewards large firms that can do things like transfer IP overseas, lease it back, borrow domestically and shift abroad, and do corporate inversions, while punishing smaller firms like POLA that can't do that (or even larger firms that are only domestic). The current corporate code is very inefficient, economically distortive, and unfair.
Also important to go into effect for 2018 vs 2019 (current senate version), is that companies like Verizon may delay capital expenditures until 2019 for the better tax treatment (if the immediate cap ex expensing component doesn't kick in until then).
Hope these past couple days are a technical pull back, before resuming upwards. And not the end of a dead cat bounce following earnings.
Thanks both of you for the info and discussion.
Is this following new info, or is this the PR order?
"one of which purchased its initial set of DC power systems during the second quarter of 2017 and has submitted its first significant order worth $1.2 million in October 2017."
Oh I agree with the potential - and I have an over sized position. But they need to deliver. I'm giving this two more quarters to see tangible progress. If nothing happens by then, then this is likely going to be a cut your losses situation.
It could drift either way in the next couple months. But any decisive move up is going to require some evidence of actual improvement in sales and the bottom line. I know this takes time, but we've now had 3 quarters are stories and promises with no actual proved tangible improvement yet.
What do you mean by we know earnings wont be good?
I know its almost guaranteed to be down y/y due to the super bug quarter last year, but isn't the expectation a return to profitability and improvement relative to last quarter?
Technical selling today?
Or something happen?
Buying Around Earnings...
So is everyone here fully loaded in their position at the moment? Or is anyone holding back to potentially purchase more pending what happens on the earnings release?
the OTC site doesnt seem to be working. Has anyone seen the topline numbers? Thanks.
Well, welcome aboard.
The story with AYSI has always been a great product with a rock solid balance sheet. The problem is, its majority family owned, and they act like this is a family business. Meaning poor shareholder communications, and some questionable counter-party arrangements with other family-affiliated activities. And they sometimes never even give you heads up as to when they are just going to go silent. We've been waiting multiple years now to know whats going on with the Indonesian plant, for instance.
So it's a gamble. They eventually open that plant/ sell to someone else/ change their corporate governance into a real company and this thing could skyrocket up. On the other hand, if everything remains the same, continue to expect low valuation multiples.
The good thing is, with a rock solid balance sheet, they will likely at least survive worse case scenario.
Has anyone heard anything from them? Re: earnings release. I sent an email and got no reply.
So when does this become a buying opportunity again? The book value is something around $1.60 now. The stock obviously has a history though of having very low valuations and if it breaks through this 1.10 area or so, then technical suggest going lower to at least 0.90.
But if you assume this goes back to book value parity, which it usually has if you are willing to wait about a year or so, then we're looking at large upside now.
Anyone considering dipping in further? I may be at that point myself. And just accept that the money making here is playing the oscillations between book value and sub book value, rather than waiting indefinitely for this to finally be valued at $3-$4 per share.
Though this is related to the general demand for their product right now, the big needed catalyst (beyond corporate governance/listing change), is when are they finally going to get their Indonesia plant up and running/ is there sufficient demand to put it to use? Because the company is not growing right now. Their current facilities are about maxed out even when demand is their.
It would be nice to get some info on what is going on.
Low trading volume thus far considering the report. Everyone on vacation already, people haven't heard about it yet, or a lot of people looking at it as meh?
So anyone thinking about buying more now? We're back to being well below book value. Seems to be the same old story. Volumes have been minature lately though.
Doesn't a weaker AUD lower the book value in US dollar terms?
But it does make the cost of buying their product in AUD less expensive for foreign customers.
So anyone buying this morning? Letting the dust settle more? Selling on yesterdays late bounce?
Well that was a horrendous earnings report. Hope this is a one quarter fluke.