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well, this is getting scary
well last time they annouced a resignation they came out with a earnings report a few days later. We're at about that time again. Hopefully that happens and reassures the company will still exist.
well that doesnt boad well for comanies development into a more mature company. Assuming that there has been no further development in indonesia, they are not back to where they where last year.
so what do you think all these resignations are about? is gene just too difficult to work with? Or you think there's somethign more fundamental about this company? I knwo this all sepculation, but either way this isnt good.
BHP Billitons Baseline forecast still for strong commodity demand growth...
so if this thing hits a $1 today, whos buying?
Other than a complete global economic meltdown is there really any justification for having a P/E ratio of 3 something?
Really hope they hit us with a good earnings report next month.
well yeah the price is very volatile, but im not trying to correlate stock price. I'm trying to correlate quarterly revenues. Even that has a lot of noise, but there is a decent correlation. I need to do it with Iron Ore.
thanks
I know iron ore isnt traded on an excahnge, but are you aware of any kind of iron ore price index out there?
I did a simple regression analysis on AYSI's quarterly sales with the price of oil (as a proxy for commodities prices) lagged one quarter, and though there is a lot of noise, it actually is statistically signifigant in predicting revenues. The simple model predicts about $6.9 million in sales for the quarter.
I'd like to try this with a more accurate proxy though.
I guess the one big worry is that if commodities (outside of gold) keep gettign hammered on worried of global recession, will AYSI see a big drop off in earnings like it did durring the crisis a few years ago?
I would expect the June quarter's earnings to be good, and a substantial imprivment fromt he year earlier condidering the 2010 quarter was really weak. But what do you suppose is going on now?
Wish they didnt take so long to report quarterly earnings, and telling us what teh status is with whoever is acting as CEO couldnt hurt either. I really hope that if they do take a strategy of floating more shares to pay for expansion, they do soemthing about communication first, so they are offering at $3 per share and not $1.30.
Well, looks like we're not immune to whats going on with the debt issues in the US and Europe.
Guess the question is, is AYSI likely to see an actual sales slowdown this current quarter or not? Might be a good opportunity to buy right now if you want to bet that the next earnings report will be good.
good find. Hopefully we hear something soon.
yeah, did something happen or is this just a technical breakout?
so anyone here buying today?
why does it seem this company can never get its act together?
agreed, but it is frustrating once again that the company seems to not care about keeping share holders informed at all.
Thanks for the reply.
I know they cant just disappear without you getting anything. But unlike uplisting within US markets, foreign markets arent always allowed to be trades by every broker.
I guess if they keep it on pinksheets great, if it just goes to ASX, I guess I got to make sure my broker allows trading that exchange.
I'm not sure how this works, but is there any chance these shares disappear? Either they buy them out or we get ASX shares? Is it even possible to directly hold ASX shares in a US brokerage account?
I'm just thinking of the possibilities here - I don't want to end up getting screwed over.
So what happens to all these pink sheet shares we own if this gets up listed to ASX?
Alerts from where?
It would be really nice if they would actually release financials within a normal time window. There is no reason why unaudited numbers are taking over 3 months to release.
It seems to me that at least some of the reason behind the blowout quarter in Q4 was because it was "catch up" earnings from the prior quarter's low number. They must have had some orders that got booked just on the threshold of Q4.
I'm wondering how much of the great quarter is due to the other dirrection? That there were orders at the end of Q4 and now the to be released Q1 numbers will be weak because of it.
I think this is why the price has been stuck at about 1.80-1.90 when it hough this would get over 2 easily. People are waiting to see if this quarter was a fluke or the real deal. If a second stright quarter comes out with 10-11 cent earnings, then we will be on pace for 40 cent plus annual - and that you have to think would move the stock well about 3 and more towrads 4 or even 5.
Unfortunentally we are probably taking a bit of a shrot term gamble here. I would expect the next report to cause either a big spike up or a fall back if it indeed looks like last quarter was not normal.
im wondering how large of an effect that is. This company doesnt make that much money. Just executive comp would eat into earnings pretty signifigantly.
So any thoughts on why the market has responded negatively to this news?
With plant an equipment you can also take out debt to help finance construction. The company can mortgage the land and plant.
thanks
does anyone know how many of the resteraunts are company owned and how many are franchized? Company owned ones are more profitable on a per store basis. You only do franchizing because it lets you expand quickly.
I'm trying to get a sence for what a fair valuation of this thing is.
Thanks
Unless HTOG was able to fool the Kansas State Regulators into thinkt here were wells that were not, as of may or June, HTOG had 87 opperating wells in Kansas
http://abyss.kgs.ku.edu/pls/abyss/oil.ogop4.OpPage?f_id=1028093260
Breakout is imminent...
Me are testing the downward trend line of the past two months along with support levels of .0040 and .0035. In addition the last three days had created a triangle wedge pattern. It looks like within the next couple of days, we are either going to jump up and start a new upward trend or we are going to jump down below .0035. We will see.
that well was part of their farm out program. They subleased the area that that well was drilled. They sold it for somethign like 10k plus 1/32 (im sure of the 1/32 part) of the output. Whether or not they still have land in the immediate area that would also likely produce oil or whther they have subleased all of it is unknown.
If it is true that HTOG is producing about 330k per month, then that equates to almost $4 million is sales per year. Using the conservative end of inductry price to sales ratio of 3, that means that the market cap should be $12 million. Assuming that all 1 billion shares are outstanding this equates to $0.012 per share.
Under normal conditions I would say this stock is a steel right now. However, there is so much uncertainty with managment/ allegations of fraud/scam that this is probably keeping the price down. So if you want to assume this is a real company, then the stock will most likely got up quite a bit, likely to at least 1.5 cents, because there is continuing expanding productiona nd my value estimate is based on current production. However, you have to make the assumption that this is not a scam. So its your call, but heres the logical reason for it going up that you were lookign for :)
why would the q3 report look good? There have bene no additional wells added over the period and gas prices have come down from q2. The only way sales will be higher in Q3 then Q2 is if the existing wells increased their production.
If this thing can close at .0045 or higher, a lot of the technical indicators will be looking good for an upward trend.
There has been so much doubt about this stock, all the accusations and suspicions of fraud plus a very bad history of stock price performance that nothing is really going to get this moving right now. The only two things that will is a very good unexpected event that changes the underlying dynamics of this company, (ie. they receive large financing, hit new oil or we get some new managment) or we will have to wait until the next quarterly numbers to see if they actually show there is revenue growth and perhaps profit. Until then, no new people are going to jump into this stock. I personally am going to wait until the Q3 numbers come out and make a decision to stay or jump out at that point.
One thing is that they dont get $8 for gas. Thats the Henry Hub price once its in Louisiana. They get max about 80% of that. And now NG is closer to $7 anyway, not 8.
Do you honestly think this company is worth 200 million a half year from now? cause thats what the market cap would be at 20 cents and assuming the full 1 billion shares get issued.
Anyone Out There Whos Actually Buying/Selling?
Is there anyone looking at this thread thinking they might buy spxp? What are your reasons for why you think its worth a shot?
Anyone who used to own this and sold. When you sell? After the big fall off from $2? Did you sell for any reason other then momentum?
Thanks.
Well my original thought was that they just redid their website, where info was much more easily accessable (though it was available before but just difficult to find), and perhaps people started reanalyzing it and not just going off of a random gamble.
I know there were some pump and dump mailings but as far I understand, this was quite a ways back and not too widespread according to a website that tracks spam.
I had been following this since October, and I thought it was too expensive then at around $3. When it fell to under $2 back in november, I bough a position. Then it all colappesed. I did a lot of research to try to figure out what happened. I contaced the investor relations, they had no idea what was happening. I contacted a reporter that does an online site for news related to ecuador mining, and she hadnt heard anything. So i recently doubled my position in it at a share price of around $.60, and now its down to $.43.
I have a good timeframe and still like the fundimentals even if the technicals are obviously really bad, so Im not too worried, but Im really wondering if there is somehting going on here. Is the market just shell shocked and all the buyers being afraid to jump in while the owners are just trying to sell and try to foget their pain? And then nothing to worry about... or is there really a problem? Because I cant find any negative info or news anywhere that would epxlain this.
Sidshow... How did you yourself find out about this company, and what got you interested to run this thread? What are your thoughts about the underlying potential of the company? You have any theory about what could possibly be going on?
Anyones's thoughts?
So SPXP has slid again, falling to $.43. With about 48 million outstanding shares, the company now has a market share of just under $21 million. The company has about 1.1 million oz in known reserves, so at the current price of $980/oz, thats about $1.08 Billion in gold reserves. Put in another way, thats about $22 of gold per share.
Doing the same type of analysis of Auerillian resources, the company that found the huge 13.7 million oz deposit in ecuador, is has about $92 per share. They have not started mass scale production either. It is currently trading at $9.38 per share. The ratio of $ of gold per share over price per share is roughly 9.8.
Now aeurillian has a much larger deposit making it more feasbale to extract and disperces the fixed costs of capital over more gold, so I wouldnt expect spirit to be trading at quite near the same multiple, but at 9.8 as an estimate, spirit should be trading at about $2.40 ($22/9.8). And this is based on an estimate of spirit not finding anymnore gold, and it is neglecting any copper, zonc, and silver mined or the tungsten mine just aquired. And this is what the market was doing until the recent and seeminly unjustified collapse.
So does anyone have any thought on what is happening here? Why is the market giving such a low $20 million market capitalization for spirit? Am I flawed in my analysis?