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So what does this do on monday?
Go up because it shows sales didn't dive over the corner and they seem to have removed a lot of dilution risk?
Or down because the project has been put off indefinitely and it's value assumes it opens soon?
What is this going to realistically take to get a P/E ratio above 3?
Financing confirmation? A few more quarters of consistent earnings? Some type of long term guidance?
Even though margins have fallen and the company has had horrible communication, they are making just as much if not more money right now then they ever have.
What needs to happen to get this thing to a P/E ratio of 7-10?
I updated the earnings info in the table above. The gross margins up there presently don't seem to reconcile with the earnings reports I looked at, so I kept those blank for now.
So at a s/p of $0.65 the and 4 quarter trailing earnings of $0.226, the P/E ratio is 2.9.
Thanks for posting. It looks like this thing isn't going to move anywhere until they have financing locked down and we know what the cost of it is. Their line on it now is it is highly unlikely they will be able to do it wish cash flow. Might also mean they are having a slow quarter now.
But overall this was a pretty good report. They now have a 4 quarter rolling average earnings of about $0.22 per share.
Also are you the one that updated this page with the earnings info in the table? It would be cool if you could do that again when you get the chance. Thanks.
Dave,
I was just about to say this myself. If price is down because demand falls, then so will volume. But if price falls because of new production going on line, that's great for a pick and shovel play.
Currently it's kind of a mix between the two. But if AYSI really does have all of this additional demand just waiting in the wings, they should be fine.
It has to be a corporate governance issue. For an industrial building, and a company that is profitable with pent up demand, they should have no trouble getting a secured or semi-secured loan.
It's got to be the tech royalty arrangements, Genes' other companies, the delisting, the bad earnings timings etc.
They probably wants Gene or his other companies to have liability personally on the debt if he were to just suddenly yank the tech agreement and Gene refused.
The $9.4 million sales is quite impressive. If they could get the margin up again after Indonesia, this kind of number with be an awesome level of earnings.
Looking over their past financial release, their accounts receivable ($3.5 million) added to their inventory ($5 million) plus their cash on hand ($2.1 million) for a total of $10.6 million is substantially higher than their current market cap of $7.1 million.
They could liquidate everything, no even rely on fixed or non-liquid assets and still be able to pay out a dividend higher than their current share price.
This thing is priced to either go out of business or turn to a large amount of share dilution.
Even as bad as their corporate governance has been and the weaker margins, it is amazing that a profitable company with no debt had this low of a valuation.
It really is the management that is the problem. They'd have a higher valuation if not for the de-listing/ late earnings reports and the other counter party arrangements with gene's other companies being the way they are. If this were not a problem they would have no problem raising funds via debt or equity for a build-out of the plant. This is a corporate governance problem - hopefully they are willing and able to overcome it.
Is this tempting as a buy for anyone down here?
Did something happen today, or is this all Swick's doing?
Has anyone ever tried calling them?
I'm going to try myself. Just got to get an international calling card.
Still haven't heard anything right? And no one else has tried to contact them?
Even for their standards we are now quite late. They just decide to stop releasing earnings and as usual didn't bother to tell anyone of the change?
Has anyone sent them any email about an earnings release?
I know in the past Barry has sometimes responded.
And it looked like they were going to kinda get their act together after releasing last quarter's earnings somewhat on time. Now we are back to waiting 4 months after close of quarter.
There is no way it takes them this long to know their earnings. I can't understand why this always takes them so long.
Do they not care that they have basically killed their own share price over the past year?
So we should be approaching earnings again in the next couple weeks.
Dave, did you even end up sending in those questions you had?
So what's happening folks?
So nothing happened these past couple days? Right?
I'm guessing this is just a technical breakout?
How low does this have to go for anyone here to buy more? Or is everyone spent and cutting off?
Thoughts on intermediate future.......
So does anyone have any thoughts on the intermediate future? Say next 6 months to a year.
They clearly are not operating in Indonesia yet and for a variety of reasons their margins are now much lower. They are now at the point of not earning much that could finance expansion if that indeed is their effort right now. The share price is also so low, floating more equity doesnt seem to be an option either.
I'm not sure where this goes from here. They have higher operating costs for whatever reason and less demand for higher margin services due to a strengthening AU Dollar. Do either of these change moving forward? Wher is the potential catalyst to make this thing move back up?
Worst case situation they are placed under continuing margin pressure and can't remain profitable and they bleed away towards fears of bankruptcy again.
Best case? That they are actually very close to opening up the Indonesian facility. But for some reaosn they refuse to give out any info in this area. If memory serves me, I want to say that the agreement to purchase the land required that they begin construction within a year of the purchase. A year is coming up in the next month or so.
I have to image they had some kind of plan with the land purchase and the finding new executives. But something obviously wrong has happened since then.
Where I before was of the mind set of this thing being beaten down but just had a lot of upside potential once the picture became more clear, I now am not so clearly seeing the upside catalayst. I now see a lot of downside risk. They seem to now need 6-7 million in quarterly sales just to reacha ny level of profitability.
Wish they would be more open with info. I just dont get it.
Well here it goes again. Why didnt i sell at 1.60?
what do you think the chances are of us getting an earnings report before february?
Also seems Dave disappeared - wasn't he going to ask them soem questions?
yeah, but price can go in both directions
and none of these have moved the price at all. What just happened today?
wasn't the annual meeting yesterday or today?
wow, great detailed analysis there.
You alive over there dave?
So I'm assuming he didnt get back to you?
Thanks for doing this, and good to hear he replied anyway. Also that hopefully the annual report will come out quicker. I would hope that means before the end of the calander year.
1. any info on to what happened with the CEO and board members
2. what is going on in indonesia? what is the plan? They used to tell us of their plans for australia. What is the intermediate goal there? How is it going to be financed?
3.We were told in the entrepreneur award that they plan on uplisting to the AUX. Any details on that?
4. They complained about Autralia politics in the last PR. I knwo there has been development son a carbon tax as well as a change in mining roylaty taxes, so there is leikly at least some truth to this. Could they eleborate on how they see this effecting them going forward?
does that suggest they may be doing something currently with the indonesia site?
there seems to be nothing new out. However, on thei balance sheet, plant and equipment has gone up a lot. So they have at least actually aquired the land. Whether they are building anythign there yet who knows. But if I remember correctly, the terms fo the purchase agreement was that they had to either start or finish (not clear in wording) the construction within a year of purchase which was last winter.
Also without additional financing, either debt or equity (the later of which they have essentially cut themselves off of due to their delisting and horrible communication) it doents look like they have the cash to really fully build out this site.
Well thanks for keeping us posted if he gets back to you. I don't get it either.
Even over the past year earnings releases have been sent out by the end of the forth month. So if nothing comes out today, it would be breaking with precedent.
did you give them a call or did you email them? Also who did you talk to if you called? I've never had sucess getting any kind of response from the latter.
I need to get an international calling card perhaps. Apparently what you where told wasnt true unless "shortly" doest actually mean when he gets back.
i guess not that shortly after.
Does anyone have any theories on legit reasons for why coming up with quarterly numbers should take so long? If they dont knwo what their financials where 4 months ago, than they are incompetant.
So if they are going to bother to release info to begin with, why take so long to do so?
if the recent trend over the last year continues, for the quarter that just ended in September, they have a book value of about $1.10 per share.
Im worried there really is something going on right now. If there isn't, this is a great bargin.
I might be buying more myself.
This is now getting crazy. It is trading as about 1X book value for a company that has plus zero earnings. And that book value includes the accounting fake land depreciation. They could liquidate all the assets of the company and pay out a dividend larger than the share price.
was hoping for a good one today. Got the earnings clock ticking/
It is indeed rather frustrating to see aysi's price performance. Guess it's a buying opportunity if you have more cash.
But there's a reason for the low valuation. Managment keeps throwing curveballs and never communicates. There's probably a lot of seen risk that the company might just implode due to something crazy.
If it was uplisted, an actual board of dirrectors were in place, executives were not quitting for no obvious reason, a timetable and thought process be made public re: expansion, and some basic sence of communiicating big items - well, this stock would be up in the $3 range.
Nobody knows what Gene is up to.
aysi - breaking below a dollar is not good. Better hope that earnings report comes out and says something good.