Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I would NEVER vote for a BIIB stock deal. Ever, even if it was 100hs: ! sh.
They had their chance. And they pushed through garbage.
AVXL will not dirty themselves with BIIB.
Chevy Christmas commercial touches on alz
Middle aged Daughter driving her old mother in a mint 1970s Chevy Suburban (the longest running single model in the auto industry).
Takes mom by the house where she grew up (no memory)
Takes mom by her old high school (no memory)
Takes mom to the old drive in, tells her this is where dad kissed her the first time (she says she kissed him first, and the light comes on)
Then she say she needs to help Dad with the holiday preparations and you see her going into the house with Dad smiling.
Quite a tear jerker, beautiful ad. But sadly, more of a Christmas wish than reality.
I wait for the day when it is an ad for 273, not Chevys, and after taking the pill the light comes on. For good!
Merry Christmas, and may this New Year be the one that sees 273 approved. Finally.
no need to look at think tank estimates (which seem too high for an average drug).
we know an alz approval is worth at lease $20 billion from the moves that Biogen stock made.
Revisiting the genome-wide significance threshold for common variant GWAS
Over the last decade, GWAS meta-analyses have used a strict P-value threshold of 5?×?10-8 to classify associations as significant. Here, we use our current understanding of frequently studied traits including lipid levels, height, and BMI to revisit this genome-wide significance threshold. We compare the performance of studies using the P?=?5?×?10-8 threshold in terms of true and false positive rate to other multiple testing strategies: (1) less stringent P-value thresholds, (2) controlling the FDR with the Benjamini–Hochberg and Benjamini–Yekutieli procedure, and (3) controlling the Bayesian FDR with posterior probabilities. We applied these procedures to re-analyze results from the Global Lipids and GIANT GWAS meta-analysis consortia and supported them with extensive simulation that mimics the empirical data. We observe in simulated studies with sample sizes ~20,000 and >120,000 that relaxing the P-value threshold to 5?×?10-7 increased discovery at the cost of 18% and 8% of additional loci being false positive results, respectively. FDR and Bayesian FDR are well controlled for both sample sizes with a few exceptions that disappear under a less stringent definition of true positives and the two approaches yield similar results. Our work quantifies the value of using a relaxed P-value threshold in large studies to increase their true positive discovery but also show the excess false positive rates due to such actions in modest-sized studies. These results may guide investigators considering different thresholds in replication studies and downstream work such as gene-set enrichment or pathway analysis. Finally, we demonstrate the viability of FDR-controlling procedures in GWAS.
BARELY ADEQUATE: In Anavex terms, a $14B buyout would be ~ $150 per share.
That would be the amount barely adequate for the years of risk and frustration. I would not feel good until we hit $250 at least. That would be a fair amount for alz and Rett, but nothing else. If we really have got it and can get approved for multiples diseases like PD, autism, seizures, schizophrenia, cardio, glaucoma, then obviously the $1249 number sounds about right.
Had a 4th year med student look at AVXL's data release of 12/20 and asked her for a short layman's summary. Here's MY summary of what she said (if anything was misunderstood, it is my fault)
She states that the pathway is for the DNA to affect the RNA, and then for the RNA to affect the proteins. It is the proteins that generally produce the medical benefits. The data here suggest that the DNA is affecting the RNA, data showing effects on the proteins is not shown here. So there is the possibility that it is affecting the proteins and producing medical benefits, but no proof. She noted that you need the proteins data to know if it really works.
She noted that in this type of genetic analysis, the p values tend to be extremely small. FAR FAR smaller than p < .05. So this data is showing extremely low p values, which is good. However, whether they are significant or not cannot be told from the press release. Again this suggests there may be an effect from 273, but we cannot be sure from this release.
Perhaps this explains why the response to this data has not been tremendous. Dr. Missling turned over one card in a game of 5 card poker.
CORRECT: I don’t think yesterday’s PR is going to get institutional biotech investors off the sidelines.
Only the actual filing will do that. Maybe happening Febish?
Just trying to make it a money-no money probability. No big issue, whether 83% or 96%, it is an average, and with the minimal side effects and desperate need, I think our individual 273 odds are far better. Should be super derisked now and thus a crazy undervaluation when we knw $20 billion ($200 a share) is a proper valuation upon approval.
Based on your post's full data, I'd say it is more like 83% than 96%
Still terrifically high odds and evidence that we should be trading at $100++ based on a $20 billion market cap for an alz drug.
Fartstain should have fun with BioVie
Damn right: "Dont give them anything longs. These are gutter prices due to oversold territory b the MM’s. Make them raise the bar by turning on the HFT switch if they want shares which could get us easily into the $50’s on a partnership announcement or fda NDA for Rett syndrome".
Sources of approval stats?
WRONG: The nice thing about Europe is that while negotiated reimbursement will be less than in the US because the EU has a single payer system, the fact everyone there is covered means more people will have access. In the US, maybe 10-20% of eligible patients will be able to afford Blarcamesine on day 1. That number is higher in the EU.
Most Americans taking 273, especially for alz, will be on Social Security, which is a single payer system.
A new meaning to Febish?
Interesting to see multiple sclerosis and autism mentioned on patent application. Especially MS, which has been quiet for years. Those are two huge applications.
$28? That is a f'in disaster! 🖕😩🖕
How we doing on those second half of 2023 goals?
And that's just alz.
If this were approved, I would want to take it.
Not only to protect my brain. But remember the various cardio properties suggested (and I think ) patented. And for a while at least, the stories about reducing glaucoma.
Solve multiple problems with one cure. For mind and eyes and heart, I'd like to take it.
Even if approved only for alz, would love anti glaucoma and cardio protective "side effects"
Let's go!
More competition for AVXL
I say I will be estatic when this stock hits $130 a share. Got more than I should, so not worrying about a couple bucks
How can there be a gap in the upper fives when this was trading in the low fives last month?
Does the cabal take Friday's off?
guess they have made such a fortune shorting AVXL that they only need to work 4 days a week now
Take your own a deep breath and pay attention, and quite being so naive. The idea that Roche, Merck, etc are going to disappear because AVXL may get an Alz drug approved is just plain silly. BP continues to come out with useful drugs with massive sales, and they have massive capital. What you are saying is similar to when Genentech came out and people said that biotech would replace BP. What happened? Roche bought Genentech and BP is still here. And Genentech was a true technical revolution, AVXL is just a small molecule pharma, not even a true biotech. Even if they are successful in alz beyond our wildest dreams, that is not going to get rid of BP, who will be busy developing similart small molecules for alz that are just different enough to get around the patents. Grow up.
Stop it with the AVXL will end BP nonsense
If AVXL is successful it will become BP.
Either through explosive growth, or acquisition by one of the established players.
Let's just build a company with revenues and tens of Billions in market cap and stop the silly Judgement Day commentary.
Shorts eating each other
Pass them the salt
HC Wainwright reiterates Buy price target $54
Wow, wasn't this at $35 or $40? Would love to see $54 within 12 months.
looks like we regained half of yesterdays loss
AS I explained, stock options are an incentive for the CEO to increase the stock price. Thus they only make money for the CEO if the stock price increased from the day they were granted. THat is a good incentive for a CEO to have. And I expect that many of them will expire worthless for Dr. M unless he delivers something.
you say just pay a big salary. OK, so based on what. Dr. M could say all these trials are proceeding, or are even completed, and pay himself a big salary. He could also say he is moving toward commercialization and pay himself a big salary also. So we would be right where we are now and out a lot of cash.
The beauty of the options is at least the market is applying some discipline to him, and they are not burning any cash, which is why options are good incentives in startup cos.
Missling was way off his game today in my opinion. And I have no idea why Tom Bishop did not ask him where is the data????? Tom had his chance and let him off the hook !
you missed their Abbot and Costello routine
Hey Abbott: "Who's on first?"
Bishop: Okay. Can you, will we get insomnia data?
Christopher Missling: [indiscernible] insomnia.
Tom Bishop: What about Australia?
Christopher Missling: What about Australia?
Tom Bishop: Okay, the Parkinson's data has been in the wings for a long time. What's the delay?
Christopher Missling: What Parkinson data, please?
Tom Bishop: The Parkinson's next trial.
Christopher Missling: The initiation of the trial? Yes.
What does it mean "fairly earned"?
Pretty simple. the options were granted when the stock was trading at $1.70. They were cashed in when the stock was $6 a share. Got it? That is how option work.
those incentives were from years ago when the stock was trading at $1.70.
fairly earned.
we'll see how many he earns before they expire of the ones with strike price above current price.