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You can Google that 'good deed' thing, but I will try to help you with some other stuff that confuses you.
The daily trading volume numbers cannot be separated into buys and sells, bob. They are 'trades'. A trade has both a buy side, and a sell side. It takes both a buyer and a seller to make a trade, bob.
When shares are purchased directly from the company through the exercise of warrants or options, don't look for those transactions to appear in the daily trading volume.
You should be happy that the share price has not dropped significantly following the recent increase in OS that resulted from the exercise of warrants. There are obviously some profit takers selling their 14 cent shares. But the good news is that others-like myself-are stepping up and buying to help the old-timers hold the roof up.
Now for the bottom line: Why is this still a 20 cent stock, after seven years? The short answer is; relatively few investors have much confidence that this, or any company, will produce a major hit any time soon, with a cancer biomarker. A little research will turn up the fact that you can count on the fingers of one hand the number of cancer biomarkers that have made a significant medical and commercial impact. Of all those exciting newly discovered cancer biomarkers that were talked about in press releases over the past two decades, very few have amounted to anything.
I hope I have done a good deed this morning. Picked up another 132k shares, which should have helped several of the disgruntled ones make their exit.
In the good old days, before it was HDVY, the CEO of Direct Wireless worked for zero salary. And he produced results commensurate with his remuneration. Dr. Barnhill, in the recent shareholder letter (which evidently many have not bothered to read), stated that the market value of the company has increased 3,500% since he took over the helm. That sounds about right, as Direct Wireless was a virtually worthless shell when Barnhill came along and bailed out it's hapless stockholders. But what has he done for them lately?
Well, the company is in a better financial position than it has ever been. There are multiple commercialization agreements with industry heavyweights, and several more opportunities coming down the pipeline. The company’s prospects have recently attracted some World class medical researchers, whose resumes spell SUCCESS. Oh, but what about that Pfizer deal? Wasn’t that a flop?
For all we know, Pfizer may have used HDVY'S technology to discover a dozen new drug candidates, which would take a minimum of twelve years to reach the market. Don’t expect Pfizer to be issuing press releases informing their competitors about early-stage drug research and giving HDVY any of the credit.
I am not an idiot. I did not buy 1.13% of this company without doing extensive research, and consulting with experts in the field of clinical diagnostics. I don’t really care that many have been holding this stock for seven years and are increasingly disgruntled. And I don’t care if some amateur student of quantum mechanics/stock scam hobbyist makes a lame insinuation that this company is a con. I will soon be laughing all the way to the bank, as usual.
Are you sure? Because presently the Stochastic is in overbought, the moon is in the Seventh House, and as soon as Jupiter aligns with Mars good crap is supposed to happen. That's unless we bump up against resistance in the neighborhood of Saturn or Venus, in which case we will re-test .14623 or .1752, or .1612. Or would it be a re-re-test? I figure if I throw enough numbers and BS out there, I am bound to get it right once, then somebody...someday...will say..."Nice Call!" I don't make any money with this nonsense, but it impresses the occasional neophyte on little stock message boards.
I want to buy some more also, but I am waiting for Jupiter to align with Mars.
You are a genius. Allegedly making 30% on trades in your grandson's account proves it. You must have done the same with hundreds of other stocks.
I would almost be interested to know why you have invested in a stock for years, which has fundamentals that stink, or are non-existent.
TA is nothing more than an elaborate variant of the Gambler's Fallacy. I wonder how many of you characters would engage in the TA Mumbo Jumbo, if you had to do the calculations for yourselves.
Yes, we know that all the wise tech believers sold into the "Parabolic" spikes. What tipped you off? Bollinger's band, that candlestick thingy, or dem ole chicken bones? The "technical" names that you believers make up, for what are essentially random stock price movements, are very amusing. There is no serial correlation. But keep up the good work, and keep the faith.
Real investors call this stuff Mumbo Jumbo. Keep at it. You are bound to be right sometime.
Techbob, #8209 your best post yet.
Thanks!
Bob apparently thinks that the large volume yesterday included sales of shares that were warrants being exercised. Well, at least he hasn't whined about that seven years story lately. That is almost as annoying and irrelevant as the 'resistance' nonsense.
Your model would be applicable if a steel company were buying another steel company-a case of adding production capacity and market share-but it is not relevant in valuing HDVY as a takeover candidate. HDVY's value lies in the potential of it's intellectual property. It's not replicable.
What's it worth? It would be interesting to hear the opinions of Dr's Albitar, and Fritsche. They should have a pretty good idea. My guess is they didn't sign on to work with HDVY because they couldn't find gainful employment elsewhere. And the base pay ain't so great. I assume that they believe they are going to be a part of something very important for the advancement of medical science.
My astrologer confirms your WAG. So I guess we can count on it.
Thanks.
So if HP is interested in 3PAR (200M revenue), they would also be interested in HDVY. That is nonsense boba. You should delete your own post, for being just plain silly.
I will help you boba: If HP were currently seriously interested in HDVY's technology, they would license it for a few hundred thousand dollars. And HDVY would be happy to get the cash.
What? How does the quote from an article in the Wall Street Journal that mentions HP tie HDVY to anything? This PR is about a vaguely defined relationship with a small company, period. This is a nit compared with the Quest and Abbott relationships. No need to blow it out of proportion.
You are the coyote.
Somehow you have missed it. They have pumped out a prostate cancer screening test. Quest and Abbott have bought into it, and are in the process of commercializing the thing. You don't think that Barnhill is lying about that, do you? Maybe you believe that little ole flush with cash, HDVY.OB, should have commercialized the test themselves, long ago. Or maybe they got the wrong partners in Quest and Abbott. Maybe Acme Clinical Testing, Inc. would have had it on the market a lot sooner. I have heard that Acme doesn't pay any attention to those silly FDA regulations. You know Acme, right? They also make those rocket skates and dynamite for coyotes. That should be something you can relate to. Sell your HDVY.OB and buy ACME!
So what should they have done bob, keep the prostate cancer test in-house and commercialize it themselves? With what, bob? And now that the test is in the hands of the people who can commercialize it, what should HDVY do, bob? Sit around and twiddle their thumbs?
You have no understanding of the business, or HDVY's business model.
And see here for a brief summary of Harry Dent's many erroneous and utterly foolish prognostications:
http://www.fedderngroup.com/newsletters/Newsletter%20-%2010-11-09%20%20Harry%20Dent%20REBUFFED.pdf
Thanks.
It's good to see that someone with some sense is invested here.
I have been negative to those who bought at inception with uninformed unrealistic expectations, and inexplicably held on for seven years, and are now whining incessantly about the wrong they have been done.
When you buy a start-up development stage company, you are buying a story. A high percentage of those stories never pan out. You are lucky to be still in the game. The game you have played with this one is the venture capital game. Venture capitalists buy stories by the dozens and expect that many will eventually fail, and others will take forever to make them any money. And they don't cry over the losers.
Judging from a reading of your posts, I offer my professional opinion that you don't have the aptitude or temperament to be a venture capitalist. I will give you the benefit of the caring and sincere investment advice that I have given to many of my friends and family: index funds.
I wonder why he failed to predict that a little failed cellular communications company, converted to a little fly-by-night biotech, would not be a big success in the short, or medium term. He could have saved himself seven years of angst, and whining. Let's see if he has some cryptic explanation for his lack of good judgement and foresight in the case of HDVY.OB.
I bought more today and had an order in for another 40k shares that did not fill. It is tightening up. I have a strong feeling the SEVEN YEAR WHINERS will be singing a new tune by Christmas.
So the charts are telling you that if the overall market is positive and we get good news from the company, the stock price will go up? Thanks.
I am sure we all feel sorry for those of you who bought this thing 7 years ago. What were you thinking?
Read the letter beyond the first paragraph. It's not really about the oil spill. Dr. Barnhill is trying to tell you something important. In the next several months, expect several very positive developments.
If I may be allowed a post, boba? My guess is that most, if not all of the recent short sales, were done by holders of warrants. It really doesn't make much sense that shorts would be attacking this thing, at this time. Warrant holders that took advantage of the recent upsurge to sell short are covered, while locking in a sure profit. And there are a lot of warrants out there. Sell some, keep most. Therefore, I look on the relatively high volume of short sales in a positive light. The large short sales were readily absorbed by buyers as the stock price went up, and the motivation of the sellers was not necessarily lack of confidence in the company's prospects.
I guess it depends on your perspective. To some it was in the dumper for a long time (seven years, according to some of the long suffering whiners). For others it was a very (hopefully) fortuitous extended buying opportunity.
You have it right. But let them engage in their erroneous silly speculations. They amuse me. Hey, do you know if we have gone above the 142 day SMA?
In the event of a buyout, the acquirer would be obligated to honor the warrants. Let's presume that the buyout would be for more than 17 cents:)
Also, my guess is the company has hashed this out with the other investors in the private placements, so that this agreement should not be expected to bring a flood of other claims for compensation. It wouldn't make much sense for them to have come to this agreement, in the absence of the expectation that this ends the problem.
Is anyone other than myself wondering why Zenos Arrow is being coy about what he learned from his last reported conversation with the company? His lack of willingness/enthusiasm to share is uncharacteristic.
What makes you think that Quest will get 95% of the revenues from the prostate cancer screening test? Last time I looked, I could not find information on the agreed on revenue split. I don't believe it has been disclosed. Reference?
My guess is it's significantly more than a 5% revenue share for HDVY, and with other compensation (milestone payments, etc.)included in the bargain.
Thanks. I believe the portions you cited are referring to tests that they are already marketing. Anyway, ou7164 has put his finger on a more interesting statement that I had not noticed in my first cursory reading of the transcript "...we have launched, or ready to launch a number of exciting tests..." I believe that ou is correct; it is very likely that our prostate cancer screener is one of their ready to launch exciting tests.
I also suspect that Dr Albitar is still serving Quest's interests. Not saying that is a bad thing for us :)
Which genetic diagnostic tests mentioned in the transcript do you think might be ours?
Some people post here for purely emotional reasons.
If I had a crystal ball that was telling me the market is about to collapse, I would not be whining about the few thousand shares I bought of this little gem seven years ago, when it made no sense to own it. I would be shorting all the stock indexes and digging huge holes in my back yard to hold all the money I am going to make (the banks will all be broke, according to the crystal ball).
Some people post here to provide us less sophisticated gamblers with perspective.
Now that I know that 99% of the other companies have the same possibilities as this one, I will sell out my huge position and buy into some companies that are a lot cheaper. Can anybody provide me with the names of a dozen or so companies with the same possibilities as this one, selling for under a penny, that have recently gone above their 50 SMA?
Sorry boba; crystal balls and 50 day SMA, tell you nothing.
I wonder why he bought this stock nearly seven years before it made any sense to own it. I guess his crystal ball was not fully operational in those days.
I had an order in for most of the day to buy 30k at 15 cents. Only got 5k. Would have bought 100k if anybody was selling. Did some extensive TA over the weekend, and according to my multivariate analysis paramaterized with a Boolean ring algorithm that filters out unit root stochastic candlestick astrological variables, I am boldly predicting that we are within a penny of the historic low for this stock. In my highly informed and educated opinion, the boat is about to sail. And the rich get richer.
An excellent analysis. I would only quibble with one essentially irrelevant point:
"Neither Quirk, nor anybody else for that matter, would ever exercise a warrant/option for 14 cents if the stock is selling for 14 cents."
If I owned (let's say a million) 14 cent warrants that were expiring today, and the stock was trading at 14 cents, I would exercise the warrants. I wouldn't mind owning another million shares below my average cost, and very likely would not be able to add anywhere near that many, without having to pay a significantly higher price.
Anyway, thanks for your rationality. And for not engaging in mindless chatter about that 50 day SMA nonsense ;)
When faced with a superior intellect in command of the facts, a clown resorts to semantic quibbling. The warrants that Quirk owns give him the option to purchase HDVY shares at a specified price, for a specified time. That is a purchase option, period. Now why don't you explain how you know what is in Quirk's mind, and how your mind reading ability is going to help you make money on this stock.
Well Quirk obviously has substantial resources, and is likely an experienced investor. In other words, he is probably not an idiot. Common sense would inform someone who has common sense that Quirk would prefer to have his options expire in two years from September, rather than have them expire in September. There is good reason why long-term options are worth more than shorter term options.
It should worry you that pennyrat agrees with your goofy speculation, which is based on your silly attempt to read Quirk's mind.
Keep up the good work.
So you seem to be saying that if Quest decides to announce the launch of the urine test, hdvy will say NO!, wait till we have resolved our little warrant issue. And in the meantime the stock will be manipulated, presumably kept down, with the companies tacit approval. You have got it all figured out. Maybe we should all get out until September. What do you say?
Thanks for keeping us informed boba.
What happened to all the inane chatter? No TA today? No running commentary on the spread? Cheer up. It's coming. Soon.
Thanks for another great post boba. You instill confidence. I just finished reading all the info on that stockcharts site that you recommended. Wow! Impressive looking stuff. Very intricate, with colors, geometric patterns, and everything. They told me in the expensive business school that I went to that TA was nonsense. They said that all the real investment pros laugh at TA. Warren Buffet was reported to have said that he gave up on technical analysis, when he turned the chart upside down and got the same answer. Just imagine how rich he would be, if he had only learned how to read the charts properly.
Anyway, I think I basically get it: When a stock price has been going up (crossing 50 day SMA for example) it tends to continue to go up, and when it has been going down.... So presumably you should be buying when it has been going up, and selling when it has been going down. Now that may seem contradictory and counter-intuitive to the old buy low sell high strategy, but since TA is practiced by so many people on stock message boards it must have a lot of validity.
I looked at a couple of those P&F charts for HDVY, but something wasn’t right:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=HDVY,PLPADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=HDVY,PLAADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G
They have the price going down to 8, or 10 cents. When I get some time I will try some of the other charting methods, until I find one that that gives me the right answer.
So really boba, what should we do? The last time the stock was at 18 cents, it dropped to 11 cents a week later. Should we buy more? Should we sell now and buy back at 11 cents? Do we play the momentum here, or the ‘history repeats itself’ angle? I guess I better go back to stockcharts.com and read through it all again.
PS: I hope you get that pinched bolis thing taken care of soon, boba. It sounds painful.