80wk trough - expect it to pierce the lower envelope boundry...

http://www.theuptrend.com/DAILYPZNASDAQ.gif

still expecting a reaction rally to severly oversold conditions prior to dropping into 80wk trough. The RSI model triggered a buy very early around NDX1446, most likely that trade will result in a loss once the RSI returns to 50 on the reaction rally prior to the 80wk trough.

Cash4 - should probably see a reaction rally ahead of the much anticipated 80wk trough due in a few weeks, plenty of time here for the current 12-14day cycle to rally a bit before troughing along with all cycles up to 80wk.

12-14day cycle trough today very likely, need confirmation still of course, but fits well with 5/10wk cycles. So now rally on 12-14day cycle to 7/16-7/21, then drop into next trough 7/28-8/2.

I'm pretty darn busy these days, but will probably show up here for a few days when my RSI buy trigger kicks in, usually happens about the 5wk cycle trough, and sometimes at the 2.5wk trough.

composite model implies we should now rally into end of next week, the anticipated FLD crosses would project to about NDX1480-1490, then we drop into cyclic trough at end of month (maybe its the 80wk trough?) breaking the 10wk FLD and following the 20wk FLD to about NDX1400.

The composite model phasing is a bit perplexing, cause the end of the month is just too early for the 80wk trough, as airedale pointed out, so things could lengthen out.

McClellan is dropping low again and is in reversal territory now.

RSI model giving good swing entries, looking for it to tell me if the end of month trough is a signicant buy point or not. For now, I'm long the RSI model and will sell at a close above RSI-50, probably will hit early next week (selling into strength), then sit back and wait till end of month.

Zoran's been wrong most of the year, seems to favor bearish side, but his fib based targets are worth noting whether his count is correct or not.

note Zoran target of SP1105, could hit that this morning for the lower low then rally.

http://www.safehaven.com/pdf/070704gayer.pdf

Airedale - what dates do you have for last troughs for 2.5, 5, 10,20, 40, and 80wk cycles. I've been away from tracking cycles for a while, and would like to update my cycle model. Thanks.

market is very oversold short term, a lower low early this morning then rally certainly could happen. My RSI model longs, seem to run 1-7days before RSI returns to 50, so my long entries are usually pretty short term. I'll add to long position if we drop signficantly lower this morning, but doubt it goes much lower.

Found my way here. RSI model says buy QQQ, and we are about 12-14day cycle trough. I'm long Q's from 35.96, will dump when RSI closes over 50.

34Simmons - you have to follow along, I update my targets every day here or at my message board. That post you referred to is a month old, way outdated, certainly had the fib turn date right, but market rallied to it instead of dropping.

http://trader.150m.com

BeProfitable - depends on which chart you look at NDX and SOX both hit HOD near turn window, SPX/DOW did not. Tomorrow will tell whether todays high on the NDX and SOX are significant.

Tetres, nice call on turn window for today, and your put option entry levels, all lined up nicely for a market top.

Tetres - saw your SOX targets, I did notice the 8yr SOX log chart trendline looked like it was pierced slightly yesterday, if that fails then I would have to favor the linear trendlines, mine agree with yours, and make sense with the fibo confluence areas I'm seeing far below on the NDX. I think you are right about things getting worse ahead of the 8/14 sign in blood date.

Tetres - I tried to adjust my order to 21.35 near close but missed the 4pm close by a few seconds, had a clock sync error (I don't trade after hours on Q's, cause Datek doesn't allow it, which continues to amaze me). If I had picked up those shares I'd be selling the opening this morning!

no cigar, orders at 21.29 sat there, as we hit 21.30, should have rounded up to 21.30 (round number support effect), but was only tacking on a generous 0.05pts over GS2-21.24 pivot level.

still waiting - I'm so cheap - QQQ21.24 !!!!

pivot formulas say QQQ21.24, lower end of Tetres lower buy range, this level should line up with SOX 8yr log chart TL, in mid 280's.

bought QQQ21.90, sold that position into close 22.20. Action on SOX appeared corrective off LOD, still a little above that 8yr log chart trendline, maybe market hits it Monday/Tuesday.

buying Q's at 21.90 or slightly under

weekend newsletter? turn times for this week? Steve did you send this out, did anyone else get them or am I the only one who didn't?

SOX didn't make it to my target, but I did go long at QQQ22.08 yesterday, took profits this morning +0.5pts. Action off Wed low seems corrective to me, SOX might still make that 8yr log chart support line, more like 290-295 IMO, next week.

SOX approaching 8 year log support trendline, about SOX300 or a tad lower! Could signal a higher low for other indices to rally off, assuming this is correct, I have interpolated NDX886/QQQ22.05 as that higher low level for this afternoon.

hit target on QQQ, long 22.32

Tetres - OOPS, reading yesterday's email, sorry, but I still think we might bottom at NDX899 at 1:30pm anything you are looking at that might support that?

Tetres - I just looked at your email, I came up with the same 1:30pm target using those pivot formulas and the 5 day 15min channel, we are in sync, I'm making big plunge in if we hit QQQ22.27 area.

Euro/Dollar Ewave analysis - ratio is about to top and could signal a relief rally in US stocks:

http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wallstreet-online.de%2Fws%2Fnews%2Fnews%2Fm...

looks like turn window will be a top, think we see lower lows next week.

After the close we have DNA, MCAF, NMTC, RBAK, RECN, STLD and YHOO scheduled to report earnings. Tomorrow PPI is to be released at 8:30 ET. SOX -2.9%... BTK - 6.3%... NYSE Adv/Dec 821/2401... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1036/2390.

- from briefing.com

I dropped the idea of never letting a profit turn into a loss, now I take a profit when I have it, and only enter when I feel a very high probability of being able to get out even if I'm wrong.

Out - +0.29pts, sold at 24.30, call me crazy, but taking easy money, waiting for 7/22!

long QQQ at 24.01, at fib window, close to Tetres SPX target.

Tetres - nope didn't get at my yahoo email address, first email of the day I received from you was the "factory orders" news time stamped 10:44am.

Didn't even think to check the website link, so darn much to remember to be a sucessful trader!

no pre-market update for today?

looks like an Elliot wave 4, ABC pattern off the lows, next down leg could be starting. Turn time was good for picking the implusive 4C wave move, but resistance above at NAZ1387 (Sept 21 low) was end of move.

Tetres - how are you viewing Fib Turn time? Looks like another leg down will start about then, or are you viewing it as a buy entry?

NDX870 on 7/22, see chart:

http://trader.150m.com/NDX870Target.gif

will refine as we go, but that is my best guess now based on fibonacci analysis, used spirals, extensions, and PHI-Ellipses.

think I was a few minutes too early, won't case it down.

stopped out with +0.05pt profit on Q's taking words of caution into account.

shorted Q's at 26.004.