Looking for my next Forex trade
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Gotta head out for a bit...back later. Getting ready to take one of my daughters to the airport for a trip to see her husband working out of town.
I had a good friend of mine that quit the car business for the same reason. He couldn't stand the idea of taking advantage of people.
That's the gospel truth. Honestly, I don't know if I could live with myself if I was a broker. I couldn't do that kind of stuff to anyone and feel good about it.
Heck, maybe one day we'll have enough money to open up a brokerage of our own and we can see exactly where the orders and the trap doors are ahead of time...LOL!
I've found the hourly zones to be pretty reliable overall on these setups. I try to correlate them with the 4 hour charts. So far (fingers crossed) I rarely see them violate hourly or 4 hour zones that I have laid out.
LOL! I just smoke more when the market aggravates me.
I quit using stops for the most part for the same reason. It's also why I set my TP levels quite a ways from a particular level so I make sure I get filled. Or I'll just do as you mentioned and close the trade manually at market price rather than plug in a level.
They really do conspire against us on a regular basis. The whole game is rigged for us to lose money.
Good thing we know how to read charts.
Hey Heavy, you'll love this...talk about market manipulation.
Sam mentions in one of his videos that the institutions and brokers will often widen the spread right near a valid zone. He says it happens all the time.
It accomplishes 3 things...
1. Takes out any stops that are close by without actually moving price.
2. Sucks in any alternate positions from retail traders waiting to go in the other direction...on NJ that would be sucking in retail longs.
3. Keeps any retailer who may be trying to get in at an institutional trading level out of the market by missing their order entry by a few pips.
So I decided to test it out. I set my chart to show the bid and ask line and then dropped down to the smaller time frames to watch for a while.
With no news of any kind, I literally watched them double the size of the spread over and over again for just a second or two at a time before returning to normal spreads. At other times, the spread would go to practically nothing...like maybe half a pip...to avoid taking any additional orders waiting at a given level.
The sneaky suckers are literally taking out stops and absorbing orders from retailers going the other way. Stops get taken out just in time to see price go the way they wanted it in the first place. And any alternate direction traders would see their orders get triggered but would never get in the green to be able to close the trade, literally trapping them.
So far in this case on NJ, they were able to take out stops at the first primary zone but have kept price from hitting the bottom of the secondary zone just above it by manipulating the spreads.
That's why we miss getting filled so many times right at a zone level...they're jerking us around...LOL!
US dollar is wound up tight here...it's gearing up to deliver a serious butt kicking to the risk pairs.
Added AU short at 0.76662.
Every time I take a trade late in the evening, I always find that the best entry levels come at around 2 AM if I just wait until then instead of jumping in ahead of that time.
I guess they wait until London pre-market opens at 2 AM Central so the banks can start moving these pairs around.
I need to just make myself wait until at least 2 AM from now on. The trades always work out but that time marker seems to work best.
They're fiddling with it. They pushed it barely 1 pip above the zone I had marked and dropped it back down. But I had my zone marked pretty tightly. The top of the zone technically should have been at 0.7468 or so. I tightened it down on the 1 minute chart and I got it a bit too close. I didn't figure it would get too far though based on the structure of the zone area as a whole.
Now if we can just get the sucker to fall apart...LOL!
And there's the NJ kersplat out of the zone. Went a bit deeper into the zone than I thought but it held up nicely without violating it.
Down we go...
I hope we don't get the chance to add there...LOL!
Yep, it might hit it after all. I'm loading a bit too early but I went ahead and added a 2nd short anyway.
TP still set for 73.80 for both trades. Plenty of room left to add later if needed. No more at these levels though.
Yeah, after using Supdem extensively, I finally discarded it. An automatic indicator can only be expected to do just so much. The human factor has to be considered. We can see and interpret things that the indicator can't.
Looks like they still had another high on NJ left to wrap up. I don't expect it to go far though. The trendline is sitting dead on the zone bottom so it might get hit after all.
The rectangle readers acts really weird Jav. I've tried it several times with different settings and the results are the same. You draw the rectangle on one time frame and it won't show up on another. Or if it shows up on another, it only shows up as dashed lines instead of a solid, colored rectangle.
And if you try to delete the rectangle later, it will many times leave the rectangle on the chart anyway or, if you get rid of the rectangle, it will leave the price levels at the end of the zones.
All in all, it was just too messy to keep. I've looked around for a simple MT4 rectangle extender that doesn't do anything but just extend the rectangle like a trendline...so far, no luck.
I haven't checked with Forex factory in a while. I just watch his videos on YouTube.
I like marking the zones manually with a rectangle. The rectangle doesn't automatically extend across so I just go in and set a longer future date for the end of the rectangle. On my weekly and monthly charts, I've got the date pushed out to something like 2025 which is about as far as I could push it without the date going nuts and reverting back to 1970.
Sam marks his with a small yellow box and then lays trendlines on top and bottom. That way he gets the origin of the box and the trendlines project automatically forever to the right.
One way to keep track of the origin of the box and keep it from getting lost due to the chart not going back far enough is to increase the Max bars in history setting under Tools and Options in MT4. But, if you decide to use any resource-heavy indicators like Zup or have too many charts open with other indicators, MT4 will crash. I currently have 250,000 bars set in my history and on max bars in chart and it seems to work fine.
Heck, I'm one of those Jav. Heaven doesn't want me and the Devil is scared to death I'll take over the joint...LOL!
Yep, that it did. One of the key things I picked up from the Sam Seiden videos is the way price action behaves as it approaches a zone that it's going to respect. Most often, you get one big, final candle that, in this case, makes a slight new high. That forces the unknowing retail crowd to pile in thinking it's gonna bust out topside but it's actually a bull trap.
That's why many times the zones we have marked get missed by several pips. I had a UCAD short the other day that missed entry by only 2 pips and I was already 5 pips below the actual zone level and still missed the entry.
After viewing Sam's videos, he recommends front running the zones by a few pips because good, solid zones mean that we're competing with the institutions and they tend to get a leg up on the turn around point.
After missing several trades due to that, I can see the logic in it.
Look at that 4 hour tdi closely though. This is the first move up to the opposing volatility band since the last sell off. First tests of the blue volatility band on the opposite side after a strong trend usually result in a resumption of the larger trend. In this case, NJ actually stands a good chance of making a lower low on the daily chart. I won't be in that long though.
The overall move up off of the lows just looks like a standard 3-wave ABC counter trend move against the larger 5 wave move down. I won't be buying it long anytime soon regardless.
Have a good one Jav. Catch ya tomorrow morning.
I see those same levels. But this zone ranked so high on the score list it's hard to imagine them blowing through it. But stranger things have happened...LOL!
I'm good for now so I won't be adding anywhere near here. There are other potential zones a bit higher up just in case this one doesn't hold for some reason so I'll add there if needed later. But I don't expect to have to.
Short NJ at 74.36. Probably a bit early but the zone setup is so good I don't want to miss out. I've had several really good zone setups miss my entry target by a few pips so front-running isn't a problem.
TP set for 73.80.
AJ is moving up now with NJ so the level wouldn't have panned out.
It might drop like a rock from your zone, Jav. UCAD dropped from the zone you had laid out earlier today. But if we follow the rules carefully, it means we'll miss out on some trades but it will keep us out of trouble on others.
The NJ short is looking great around 74.45 to 74.50. Heavy and I are waiting to short that sucker. Should be good for 70 to 80 pips profit if the zone works out.
Here's the NJ 5 Minute chart again. I went ahead and drew in the trendlines also just for added confirmation.
I'm looking for a TP that falls back 50% from the lowest low to the bottom of the zone. That would put us at a TP of about 73.68. But, I always move to the next big number zone above so I'm looking at a TP of 73.80 once I'm short.
This is the kind of stuff I love to see...when nobody wants to buy the dollar AFTER it's declined to it's lows.
It's the perfect setup for a big US dollar rally.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-11/hedge-funds-abandoning-dollar-s-biggest-bull-run-in-a-generation
The zone itself looks good Jav but don't forget to also look at the pair from a larger time frame perspective.
The hourly AJ chart shows price has already been back to this area twice and the last drop wasn't very large. So technically, this price action area is old news.
The next fresh zone on AJ doesn't appear until 82.85 or so on this hourly chart. That's the one I would watch for.
The zone you have marked might produce some pips but it violates the rules for entry based on the larger time frame setup.
I just noticed here that it lines up with the FE 100 if you place it across the first entire move off the lows.
I'm sure there's a correlation somewhere but the nice thing is we don't have to worry too much about the fibs as long as we've identified clean, fresh zones with high probability odds laid out.
NJ 5 Minute Chart...
I wouldn't be surprised if most of these zones line up nicely with fib levels, Jav. The fresh zones really help to take the mystery out of which fib will work when others may fail. From what I've gathered from watching all of the training videos, a high-odds fresh zone produces some of the biggest moves and that's what we like to catch.
Ain't that the truth. Nothing like watching the percentage go down the drain quickly with one bad trade.
Hope NJ didn't leave the train station without us. Still waiting though...not chasing it.
Same here...I don't like to chase price on the zone setups. I like it to either hit my target or I'll pass and look for something else.