Looking for my next Forex trade
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Yeah, the daily candle close looks promising. Plus, the weekly TDI count shows a full 5 waves up at this point along with rejection again at the trendline breakdown and retest on price action. What's interesting is that there isn't any real support on the weekly chart until it gets down below parity...somewhere around 0.9967.
Weekly chart...
Thanks Kirby. Yep, the 15 minute chart can be golden. I know a lot of pro traders that choose to use it as their time frame of choice.
Yeah, with AU biting the dust, it's become the red-headed step child for the market. That's likely to drive EA to the upside for a while.
Yeah, I like to take some profits on the first move and then wait out the rest. So far, so good.
EU is priming for a drop so I've got a couple of small short positions running there as well.
Thanks Heavy. Now if I could just rack up a couple of those a day...lol! Seems like those setups are just too few and far between. Although, I have to say that my UCAD longs are looking good this morning...finally.
Sweet! Always nice to book dem pippies ain't it Jav?
The chart agreed with me but I had other reasons for shorting AU right in that area as well. Now if I could just do that all the time...LOL!
And took profit on the AU short a few minutes later...I think I got about 112 pips on the short but I'll have to wait a minute to find out. I would suspect we see a lot more downside though. Still have long term shorts running waiting on a hit at my 0.73 target.
EDIT: Yep, 111.6 pips on the AU short. Just got the confirmation from the public trading account. Worked out nicely.
Added AU short above 0.77 ahead of the RBA. Got some basic reasons for doing so other than the charts but I'm sure I'm early.
Yep, that's right SG...once they jump on a trend, it can last a very long time. Case in point is the trillions of yen they sold off to drive UJ up to highs along with the other yen crosses as they devastated their own currency. Now, the market seems intent on teaching them the most valuable lesson of all...massive intervention can only work for so long before the market punishes you for your efforts, even if it takes a few years. The Swiss learned that lesson the hard way. I still remember when they came out with the peg on Euro Swissie and claimed they had "unlimited" funds to hold it there...LOL! No government has unlimited funds and eventually the peg got trashed because they were going broke trying to hold it.
I'm quite sure we're going to be feeling the pain here in the US as well once the market unravels all of the huge stimulus and near zero interest rates for so many years. Folks will flock to the dollar like white on rice and sell everything else in their path.
Just musing a bit...still curious to see what excuses or reasons the media attributes to any market sell off coming. Psychology has always fascinated me and the market is the perfect patient to study...LOL!
Night Jav.
The BOJ decision will also very likely have strong bearish ripple effects in the US stock market. I would expect US stocks to sell off tomorrow and in the weeks following.
Nice work Jav. I was betting on the BOJ not making any changes to policy even though the analysts were expecting them to. The BOJ has a pattern that's held true for a long time. Once they make a major policy change, they typically give it about a year to gauge the effects before they implement again. The rally had a policy changed baked in but it's only been 3 months since they announced a negative interest rate. It wasn't in their best interest to implement another change now so the rally in the yen crosses didn't stand to reason...so shorts were the better option.
Worked out nicely.
And went ahead and took 133.6 pips profit a few minutes later on the NJ short...LOL! That was fun. Haven't looked but the BOJ monetary policy statement must have been bad. Analysts said bullish for yen crosses but the charts said bear so I just followed the charts.
Shorting NJ at 77.11, TP set for 71. Long term play.
No problem Kirby. Long term play on UCAD so I'm just gonna leave it to run. It'll take a while to hit my target.
UCAD Daily Chart
Morning gang. Out of all the charts, UCAD is by far the most attractive play right now for long positions.
We're wrapping up a 5th wave channel to the downside and the TDI shows a Wave 2 pullback. The upper target is still a bit above 1.33 so my TP is still set for 1.33 even. I've added a couple of small positions down on this lower end for a total of 3 trades running right now.
Should run nicely over the next few weeks as oil collapses again.
Have a good one, Kirby. I'm still long UCAD for the long haul to 1.33 TP.
I've seen several articles like that pertaining to the DOW, S&P, and the Russell 2000. They were all bullish...LOL!
This is really just too funny. I can't believe there are pros out there that still believe this stuff. The charts are screaming bear and yet these folks are pounding the drum talking about how bullish the market is.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/19/dow-other-key-stocks-form-bullish-golden-cross.html
Might take a while but I think the pressure will gradually increase upward. The market loves to make us wait...LOL!
I have one as well. Just gonna hold it for the larger move later. Sooner or later, that channel will give up the ghost and it'll move north.
No problem Kirby. It's made another trip down to the bottom trendline again, which isn't uncommon. It's still well within a key demand zone. The combination of the channel trendline and the zone should send it up before much longer.
Yeah, it sucks waiting for these things to reverse. The market sure does like to draw things out as long as possible.
I suspect that's going to be a short-lived event. The market is in a precarious position right now. I think they're looking for an excuse to sell here on a retest near overall highs. Charts are starting to line up for a bearish run here soon.
Time will tell....thanks for the update.
Yeah I would think so. AU is setting up for a nice drop after all this time so EA should follow suit to the upside.
Well, I pulled a really good bone-headed move today, Heavy. I take a weekly allowance out of my primary trading account along with my monthly withdrawals. The weekly money is my play money basically...that's my "mad" money.
Anyway, I go online and set up the transfer just like I always do...except I accidentally tagged the public account instead of my primary account.
So now I have $750 withdrawn from my public account instead of my primary account, which completely squashed my percentage of drawdown. No losses...I had enough to cover current trades but just barely. I'll probably have to move some back in to cover current trades though as soon as the withdrawals clear and show up in my account.
Talk about getting old...LOL!
Closed the AU flipper for 11 pips profit. Gonna just sit back and keep my long term AU shorts going and give it plenty of time to get into the groove.
US outlook downgraded...
I don't really agree with analysts as a general rule. But one thing's for sure at these levels...the market is just looking for an excuse to sell. All it will take is a trigger.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/18/citi-slashes-us-outlook-risks-very-evident.html
We're testing critical levels all across the board on currencies and equities. Should be an interesting week.
Added an AU flipper short at 0.7791.
Long UCAD at 1.2776. TP set for 1.33
LOL! That used to be my world, too. Now I just hang on, average in if needed later on, and wait for it to come back. But I have to use much smaller entries than I used to also so I don't have to sweat it anymore. Large percentage entries used to give me ulcers and make my butt pucker up hard enough to chew holes in my chair.
Hard to tell on EA just yet. I closed my positions out in my other account a while back by doubling down after the first pullback on that large bull candle that appeared on March 10th. So I wound up with a small profit after all was said and done...haven't played it since. There are so many pivots and zones in the current area that could turn it around though so I wouldn't be surprised to see more upside later.
The weekly shows that price is still inside the first zone but it't not technically fresh here. The other zone top right around 1.4370 is still relatively fresh though, having only one brief test Nov. 29th last year with that large green reversal candle.