Looking for my next Forex trade
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No worries. 100-200 pips on the larger scale is only a blip on the radar. The overall technical setup at this point says GU plunges regardless of the outcome...kind of a "buy the rumor sell the news" type setup.
That always seems to be the case Jav. I don't even use stops anymore and haven't for a long time now. I just scale in on high-odds trade setups with low percentages of risk and then wait it out. Works out much better that way.
UJ shows another possible final high coming down the line so I bailed for what profits I had. I've been in and out twice so I'll wait a bit again and see what it does.
Got 80 pips profit really quick on the GU short so I went ahead and took it. Should be plenty of time to get in an out along the way.
UJ short is starting to shape up now as well.
Nope, no changes to the TDI Jav. Just the generic TDI. Can you post a pic of your daily UJ chart with the TDI at the bottom? That way I can compare it with mine.
After looking more closely at UJ, I decided to take an initial short position at 111.15. TP set for 1.07.
UJ daily shows it's still in a 3rd wave TDI movement to the upside for now Jav although this is likely to be a tough area to get through on the first attempt. After the 4th wave back on the TDI, it should make for a nice long. Kind of hard to tell where it's going to top out though for now on this move up.
Demo is definitely a good idea till you get it down solidly. Have a good one, Kirby.
Thanks Kirby. I've tried several brokers over the years and I've been very well pleased with Oanda. Just the fact that they allow you to place odd sized trades is of great value. Most brokers limit you to even-sized increments only such as micro, mini, or full lot, which restricts traders to the FIFO rule. The odd sized trade increments allow you to close them out in any order. I can't imagine trading with the FIFO rule, which really makes no sense to me at all. That ruling should have never been passed.
Overall dependability with Oanda has been good with some occasional exceptions. The worst I remember is a few years ago when they went down for several hours but that was the only long term outage I remember over 9 years of trading with them.
Didn't know if anyone was still interested in following the public account but here's the link again for anyone who might want to take a peek. So far, so good. Still using a mix of long term and short term trades.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/nettechs/waves/1539708
Correction on this previous post. I accidentally typed in "It's really NZD/AUD." when it should have read as "It's really NZD/USD."
Didn't want to cause any confusion...
Dairy farming is the key in New Zealand Jav. While it's hard to keep up with using any type of real-time commodity like gold or oil, you can get a lot of info about New Zealand dairy farming here.
http://www.dairynz.co.nz/publications/dairy-industry/facts-and-figures/
It's pretty straight forward, Jav. The Canadians are heavily dependent on oil for their economy and their currency is tied directly to it. So oil and the CAD currency are directly proportional...they move up or down together.
The UCAD pair consists of the US dollar as the leading pair and CAD as the trailing pair. It's like working with fractions...UCAD is really USD/CAD. So when working with correlations, try to imagine the pair in question as a fraction.
Now, since CAD is on the bottom and we know it moves directly in step with oil prices, let's imagine for a moment that oil is going to move up. If oil moves up, CAD moves up (number gets bigger). If the number on top of a fraction stays the same while the number on the bottom increases, the solution for the fraction gives you a smaller number. Imagine the number ten on top divided by 2 on the bottom which yields 5. But if the bottom number (2) increases in size to a 5, then the fraction only yields an answer of 2. In other words, the answer for the total fraction went DOWN from 5 to 2 by increasing the value of the bottom number.
So that means that if oil goes up and the CAD value (the bottom number) goes up in value, the UCAD pair drops in value and we should short it. If oil drops in value, the bottom number gets smaller and the solution for the USD/CAD fraction gets bigger...so UCAD goes up.
It's pretty much the same for all of the pairs. AU for example, is just AUD/USD...another fraction. The Aussie is heavily tied directly to gold and mining. So if gold goes up, typically the Aussie part of the AUD/USD fraction goes up, which takes AU up since the Aussie is the leading (top) part of the fraction.
NU is another example. It's really NZD/AUD. We call it the Kiwi. New Zealand is heavily tied to farming as a staple of their economy. If farming drops off, the Kiwi falls in value, dragging NU down since the Kiwi is on the top of the fraction. In this case, the top number of the fraction gets smaller so the resultant value gets smaller and NU drops.
Hope that helps Jav. Any questions, just let me know. I can always do a video on it if you think it might help.
Hey Jav. I just closed out the UCAD long again for 74 pips profit. I've been flipping in and out of this thing for days now, mostly on long positions.
Here's the 4 hour chart. All I'm doing really is just looking for TDI wave count completions to the downside on the hourly chart and then hopping back in long again. I'll do that until we reach the upper supply zone.
Yep, doing good Kirby. I got back in long as well at 1.2969 with TP set at 1.32. It's destined to make at least one more new high.
Got a bit over 30 pips profit very quickly on a sharp UCAD rise so I took it. Gonna wait and see how things pan out from here and look for longs again. No need to be in a hurry. Plenty of time to get in and out of trades along the way to the 1.33 level later.
Building long positions on UCAD again here at 1.2948. Should be good for at least a move back to the highs at 1.3186 but the overall target above 1.33 is still the most viable level the market is aiming for.
Here ya go Jav. I don't use the Renko anymore but here's where I had everything saved on Renko, including some videos I made. This location has all of the indicators, instructions on the setup (PDF file), and the template.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/yfbws1bs7xvhl07/AABkasunI8Rm7FJPIQ2Aufq0a?dl=0
Long AU at 0.7199, initial TP set for 0.7280.
Morning SG. Man, you must be a glutton for punishment...that's gonna be a big project for sure. I wouldn't want to be in your shoes...LOL!
Longer term, I think AUD/NZD still has another high to make or, at the very least, to move back up to the overall 38.2 fib on the weekly chart here. Right now, 1.12 would be nice but I wouldn't be surprised at a move back to the 1.14 area either.
AUD/NZD weekly Chart...
I'm still around Jav...just sticking mostly to long term time frames so I can concentrate on the wife's honey do list...LOL!
Gonna start building long positions on AUD/NZD here with first position taken at 1.0727. TP set for 1.12.
EU Weekly Chart
This one is still the best long term play I see right now. Shorts are going to be the big winners here.
Expecting a new daily low near parity overall but my long term TP is a conservative 1.02. The first 5 waves up count as a big Wave 1 up on the monthly chart. But the first wave up is never the overall low. Wave 2 back down should make a new daily low. At that point, we can start looking for long term long positions but for now, short is the best option.
Morning Simple. I've used epsom salts to remove stumps...works very well. Here's the instructions if anyone is interested.
http://www.bobvila.com/articles/how-to-kill-tree-stumps/#.VzH44oTythE
Took 95 pips profit on the EA short. Gonna have it time to see if it recovers before shorting it again.
Final AU short closed out here at the 0.73 area hit. About time it got there...LOL!
Probably still has a bit more to go though.
Back in on the EA short at 1.5570. Still looking for 1.52 for near term TP.
Longer term, it'll run higher Jav, at least from what I can see. This large move up off of the lows is Wave 3 on the daily TDI. After the wave 4 pullback, it should move back up again. I'm still expecting at least 1.58 after the next pullback.
Took a bit over 47 pips profit on the EA short for now. The lower time frames show we could still see a bit more bounce on it. I'll wait and short it again later.
EA Daily and 4 Hour Charts
EA has done well so far on the move up but it's time for another pullback before it can move higher later on. The Euro is getting ready to weaken for a bit so EA is likely to respond to that. I'm expecting a pullback to below the 1.50 mark before it can push up to at least the 1.58 mark I'm looking for later.
Daily chart shows we've completed 3 waves up on the TDI so the Wave 4 pullback is right around the corner.
The 4 hour chart shows 5 waves up, Wave 1 back and Wave 2 back up so Wave 3 down is coming next.
Shorted it at 1.5525. Looking for a TP at 1.52 for now on a conservative target.
Daily chart first and then 4 hour...
Welcome aboard Typical. Glad to have you here. Forex can definitely be a challenge for traders. We tend to trade typically from a technical analysis perspective overall. We probably have a few fundamentals traders around but for the most part we go with whatever the charts are telling us. If you have any questions at all, definitely feel free to ask. We're all here to help each other make money and I think you'll find that folks here are more than willing to share what they know to assist any way they can.
Hey Jav. I think Simple mentioned a while back that he was having some trouble with that as well and was looking for another version of the SMI. Not sure if he ever found one though.
UCAD bounced pretty quick there so I went ahead and just took the 60 pips of profit on the long position while I had it.
I had closed out all of my UCAD longs this week but I'm back in long at 1.2793 with a TP of 1.29. It's still got at least one more high to make above 1.29 before it can retrace.