Looking for my next Forex trade
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Added UJ long at 100.80.
I'm guessing from the price action going on that Brexit has just been confirmed. Goodbye Great Britain...LOL!
Bloomberg website just crashed...interesting. Heavy traffic maybe?
I try to only have one primary position for longer term gains and I look at the additional entries as flippers. That satisfies my craving for gains near term and still gives me regular gains over the longer term...best of both worlds.
Patience is definitely the hardest part of trading. I guess the same could be said for any discipline that we undertake.
Switching to the longer time frames has made it easier simply because I only have to check the charts once in a while now, rather than baby sitting them like I used to with the shorter time frames. It definitely removed the stress factor entirely. Trading is boring now for the most part but it's nice to have my money working for me instead of me working for my money.
That's one main reason I've switched to daily and weekly charts for the most part. That way, I can take an entry and just sit back and wait it out no matter what the market does in the near term. I don't even watch for the news releases for the most part anymore. I've just adjusted the risk factor accordingly so now it's no sweat. Trading for me now is actually easier than it's ever been.
With the weekly chart on UJ setting up for a nice breakout, I would expect the yen crosses to rise as a whole. But getting in and out during the high volatility is more fun than having a sack full of cats high on crack...LOL!
Back in with a small long starter position on UJ at 104.04. Weekly chart still says it's primed for a nice bounce.
All profit is good profit, Qui. Take it and run.
I wasn't worried about the 1.44 target. I figured it would get there sooner or later regardless of the exit poll results and I wasn't in heavy enough to make much difference either way.
I won't mess with the pound pairs again until well after the dust settles. I see it's dropping quickly again now...more results for "exit" I would guess from different provinces.
The total picture won't be known until all polls report by tomorrow though so it could move back and forth all night long.
And there's my 1.44 target reached...sweet!
656 pips profit on both GU shorts...cha ching!
I'm just gonna hold for the 1.44 target and let it do it's thing. It just dropped back very sharply all of a sudden right after the polls closed.
Closed the last UJ long position for a few pips of profit. Got in too early on that one anyway.
If a Brexit does materialize, UJ would likely drop like a rock. No sense taking on the extra risk.
Thanks for the link, Kermit. It really makes sense overall if the emotional aspect is removed. A vote to remain has been pretty much baked in at this point. If we were still in the middle of the range, it would be much more difficult to determine the direction but the top end push at these levels stacks the odds logically in the decline category.
Added a GU short here near 1.48. TP for both trades still set for 1.44.
Took 133 pips profit on one UJ long. Holding the other for now.
Morning Qui...or actually, afternoon now...LOL!
I think the whole Brexit mess was overdone to begin with. As I mentioned before, the chart shows that GU has actually traded pretty normally with the exception of the daily ADR being just a bit higher than normal. But the overall price range channel on the chart has been nothing unusual.
I doubt seriously that the Brits are going to leave the EU overall. I would even go so far as to say that the government would stoop low enough to fudge the numbers from the election to show a result of "Stay" regardless of the actual outcome. It certainly wouldn't be the first time a government rigged an election, especially if results are close.
When all is said and done, I think the Brexit will be much ado about nothing.
Hard to say for sure on that pair Jav...it's not one I normally follow. But here's the monthly chart. For now, it shows a bullish breakout on both price action and the TDI showing more topside is likely, at least up to the last key candle level near parity at 0.9955. I've been leaning more towards the Aussie as a better performer overall based on pairs like AUD/NZD prepping for a northerly breakout so I suspect pairs like AUD/CAD will react the same way.
The current TDI wave count also helps confirm that, with the last pullback counting as a Wave 4 retrace, followed by a bullish Wave 5 move up coming next.
Gonna be interesting for sure. I really don't know if those correlations will hold or not to be honest. All I can go by are the technical indications on the charts based on price action and those are saying AUD/NZD and UJ are headed up while GU heads down in the near term. But, stranger things have happened...LOL!
I've only got a small position on the short so it really doesn't matter to me either way. If it does pop, it'll be a brief rally and then it'll drop anyway. I adjusted for the reduced margin ahead of time.
So, how is the British pound most likely to respond to the Brexit vote?
Easy enough to predict at this point. Let's look at both possible outcomes...
Stay result...The fast and furious rally already has a Stay vote priced in so the end result is that a vote for Stay shows the pound selling off afterwards...buy the rumor, sell the news. The selling will likely be orderly...but a sell nonetheless. Any knee-jerk upside reaction would be very limited.
Leave result...With bets heavily skewed on Stay, a Leave would be catastrophic for the pound the first day after the voting results come in...it would drop like a rock very quickly.
So, regardless of the outcome, we're looking at a pound sell off.
Just my two cents and my normal, potential "egg in the face" prediction...LOL!
Took almost 78 pips on 2 GU longs. I'm out for now. Nice bounce off of the converging trendlines but I'll wait and see how the daily candle shapes up overall before entering long again.
Have a good one Qui...enjoy!
Since AUD/NZD is poised for a nice move up, I would suspect that we'll see the Aussie strengthen as a whole as opposed to the Kiwi so I wouldn't necessarily draw a comparison between NJ and AJ at this point. I seriously think AU and NU are about to diverge overall.
If UJ pans out on the long position from here, I suspect it would greatly benefit your AJ long position overall. Hard to say just yet but it looks like UJ is seeing some buyers below the 104 mark at the expanding diagonal trendline so that's good for you.
I'd be looking to exit no later than 89, Qui. That's about the 50% retrace of the channel down and it appears to be a key resistance level.
Brexit Campaigning Suspended for Now
Things are getting violent over there over the Brexit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-16/u-k-labour-lawmaker-jo-cox-in-critical-condition-after-shooting
The weekly is really the best picture overall of AJ. It's coming up on the overall 61.8 fib support which could give you the bounce you need. But the key price action support is lower near the 72 level.
The TDI shows a potential bullish contracting triangle pattern but requires a break above the top and a retest to confirm longer term topside movement.
AJ Weekly...
I'm just playing the longer term daily and weekly charts here, Qui. The weekly UJ chart shows a TDI IHS pattern with a retest of the TDI neckline this week so a bounce over the next couple of weeks should be in order. But it could take a while to kick in since it is a longer time frame.
GU Daily Chart
With all the talk of a Brexit, I'm starting to wonder why the daily chart shows a breakout and retest of a double trendline support area? It's making me think that the trade is too one-sided at this point.
So, of course, I'm buying a ticket on the risk-train and going long in this area. Might be worth a bounce. Small position only, of course.
SNB and BOJ...that's what I need since I'm long USD/CHF and UJ...thanks for the update stargate...I didn't look that far ahead on the news releases.
No problem Jav. Man, I hope I don't have that many charts to watch...LOL!
Only thing that might cause problems is overloading the resources on MT4. I've noticed in the past that too many charts can cause MT4 to crash but I haven't had it happen in a long time since I stripped my charts down to bare minimum on indicators and such.
I finally figured it out Jav. Took me a minute though to find out how he did it.
Start with a normal chart, full screen as usual. Then, click the middle button at the top right to get it down to a smaller box that you can move around the screen.
Then, instead of clicking the minimize button at the top left like you would normally do to see just the description bar, just keep shrinking the size of the box by grabbing the right side and the bottom with the mouse pointer and dragging them in with the mouse button. Especially the bottom of the chart...take any chart that's smaller than maximum and drag it up from the bottom edge of the chart and you'll see what I mean...that chart will shrink from top to bottom until only the top bar is left.
Eventually, you get down to the point where all you can see is the description box at the top. At that point, you can make the description box as long or as short as you want it.
Hey, there you are Qui...been missing you dude. BTW, don't feel bad about AUD/NZD. I still have one small long position there too but it's long term so I just let it ride. My longer term TP there is 1.12.
GU and GJ are both hard nuts to crack at current levels simply because of the wildcard in the mix...the BREXIT vote on June 23rd. Other than that one trade on GU that I took, I'm leaving the cable based pairs alone until well after that vote hits the wires.
On the monthly GU chart, we're somewhere in a 5th wave down on the TDI wave count overall so GU could still have considerably more downside coming longer term. But it's kind of iffy on the TDI counts on the lower time frames so I honestly can't hazard a guess at this point.
Overall, cable trades are just too risky at this point to trade for me. When the Brits decide whether to stay in the EU or not on the 23rd, we'll have a better idea of where we're headed after the dust settles.
UCAD Hourly Chart
Time to pop again here. We finally got back to the 61.8 retrace of the entire move up off the lows. TDI shows a breakout and retest here.
The daily chart also shows that this move down is a Wave 4 TDI retrace so Wave 5 up is ready to begin as well. Longer term, I'm still looking for a hit at 1.33 but this near term pop should take us back to 1.29 easily.
Yep, it went to that 107 mark we were looking for and beyond. Wish I had held it all the way now...LOL!