Looking for my next Forex trade
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Hey Kirby, good to see ya back posting.
To answer your question, no...unfortunately, the standard Oanda platform doesn't support the TDI.
I did figure out how to emulate the TDI on the basic Oanda platform but it doesn't really do the TDI justice on the MT4 platform. But, if you want to give it a shot, here's how to set it up...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=112362603&txt2find=tdi|oanda
The TDI wave count on AJ is a bit of a mess...that's why I didn't include it with the chart. But the contracting triangle TDI pattern I posted on the AJ chart is indicative of a 5 wave series that is completing soon. The best entry is to wait for the breakout and then a retest before entering long.
Best guess at this point is that it's setting up for a 500-600 pip move back to the top of the price action channel.
The smaller count inside the larger Wave 3 on the weekly doesn't really support a move down to the 61.8 level. And the smaller IHS pattern on the TDI right now shows that a substantial bounce would occur before something like that can happen.
Also, a bit out "out of the box thinking" plays well here. Since UJ experienced this major run to the topside, it makes sense that the Bank of Japan would want to defend the 100 level with everything they've got. They're not about to let it slip below there for long after they spent trillions of yen getting it up to the 125 level.
This GU daily chart shows why I was betting that the market was dead wrong when they were buying up GU before the Brexit vote. The psychology behind the TDI wave count was wrong for a bullish run since I could only show a Wave 4 move up with Wave 5 back down yet to come. And the total count was a larger Wave 2 back down, which normally results in a lower low on the daily chart...so the bull run up was just that....total bull. That's why I loaded up the shorts while everyone else was buying.
Once you learn this, you can always tell when the market is full of crap and you can start ignoring pretty much everything out there, including the so-called "pro" traders and analysts.
Incidentally, you can also see why I believe GU may be poised for a nice move up. A larger Wave 3 to the topside is starting to set up now.
Precision isn't necessary, especially on the long time frames. Just go in light and add later if needed.
Here's the UJ weekly chart, showing why I have long positions here. 5 waves up and only 3 back down so far. So Wave 4 back up is coming, which should move up to at least the 50% level of the drop (around 112.00) so far and it's very likely to take us back all the way up to that supply zone I have marked above 117.
Notice the small IHS pattern at the bottom of the current TDI setup. It's due for a big pop very soon.
Here's one I posted a short while back...the daily USD/CHF chart. Simple 1-2-3-4 wave count. I didn't hold this one all the way but the first TP is always the FE 61.8 retrace and it nailed it perfectly.
I backed up and counted 5 down from the previous high above 1.03 and then counted the other direction as the TDI waves began the 5 wave move in the other direction. In this case, I was playing the move back up during the 5th wave move, which probably hasn't completed yet.
Yep, pretty much all the time. If not, you can always drop to a 30 minute or even a 15 minute chart and find them there.
The lowest point on the TDI that you mentioned is probably a Wave 1 or part of a Wave 1 on a larger time frame. But on the smaller time frame, you just count 5 in a given direction and go from there.
Yep, the 5 wave TDI count set up nicely this morning right at that 0.7130 area where I shorted it. That was the FE 100 mark based on placing the FE tool at the 3 points between the start of Wave 3 and then end of Wave 4, like we usually do. Also, there was price action hesitation at the FE 61.8 level so that told me the TDI count was very likely correct. It's probably headed back to the FE 61.8 near term but there's still room for another high before it does.
All I had to do was count 5 waves up on the TDI from the lows...the rest was easy.
NU hourly chart...
A lot of times, I'll just watch the smaller time frames like the hourly to see if I can find a full 5 wave TDI count. If I can, then I just trade the opposite direction and it almost always give me the 1% I'm looking for on a daily basis. Seems like there's always a pair out there daily that gives me a setup to trade like that.
Just a quick in an out to give me the 1% or so I look for each day of trading while I'm waiting on the longer term stuff to work out...nothing special. I always try to combine the best of both worlds on day trading and swing trading if I can.
Closed out the initial NU short for now for about 1% profit. The hourly chart shows we could still see one more move topside before it rolls over, possibly back to 0.72. I'll wait it out and see how it looks tomorrow.
I went ahead and closed out the last of my GU longs this morning on the move up just in case. So far, the move up has been a 1-2-3 pattern which could be just a corrective move so one more daily low could be in the works. The daily TDI is curling up off of the trendline I had drawn in though.
What I'm probably going to do is wait for the weekly candle to close this week and see how it looks. Once the weekly TDI begins to curl up, it should be ready for larger gains to the upside. As far as a lowside dip and pop, that's hard to predict. It's best to wait till after the fact before trying an entry on something like that as opposed to catching it ahead of time.
I find articles like this hilarious. It reminds me of a bully who's had his bluff called and is now blustering, trying to save face. This whole Brexit panic was never about the UK needing the Eurozone...just the opposite. The UK doesn't need the EU at all...but the EU desperately needs Britain. Yet the EU is still trying to play the part of the bully, as if they're holding all the cards.
Ridiculous...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-28/merkel-tells-cameron-before-eu-summit-don-t-delude-yourself
I heard pros on TV recommending to short the crap out of GU even after the big drop. I would think if they were still going to drop it, it would have happened yesterday and today. Still, I'm being cautious and only have one light long position on GU in case I need to add later.
The charts are saying this is the bottom but that doesn't exclude a quick panic drop and pop candle so any long positions need to be able to account for large swings until it catches a gear north.
Currently, I have a top end TP at 1.4650.
Took 109 pips profit on a GU flipper position from the lows today. Still holding one primary long-term position.
Beginnings of massive breakdowns usually occur at record highs, not after a large sell off has already occurred. The markets may still break down...they are near all time highs. But the currencies like GU and UJ are near their lows. There's talk now that the Fed may wind up cutting rates back to zero again. That will cause selling in the dollar index and the risk pairs like GU will rise as a result of that if nothing else.
Everything runs in cycles. We just have to wait till this current cycle is done and it enters a new one.
Yep, as long as you follow the basic rules, you'll come out fine.
Another interesting aspect of this whole thing is that this massive selloff candle came at the end of a long string of sell offs. That's usually a key indicator as well that the market over reacted and will soon realize the error of their ways and take it back the other way.
All sorts of little tricks we can use to make money.
Yep, and those same technical forecasts were also calling for bullish breakouts to the topside when GU was rising quickly before the vote...which of course got squashed flat when things shook out 24 hours later. As I posted before the vote even happened, the technicals were pointing to a sell off on GU regardless of which way the vote went.
What's interesting about chart psychology is that analysts try too hard to fit in reasons behind the chart moves AFTER the fact when the psychology of the move is evident in the charts BEFORE the fact. They always have to have a reason to pin it on, just like erratic moves in the stock market. The fact is that long term charts will move the way psychology dictates, not the way the news releases move them. You can't fight the herd.
Remember when GU bounced hard a week before the vote? I posted a chart when GU was in the 1.40's that showed that even though everyone was very bearish on GU at the time and it was dropping like a rock, the chart showed it was about to move north so I went long. The psychology was evident even though the analysts were saying something different. I got out way too early but the psychology was correct and we moved up.
That's the primary reason you have to focus just on the charts and leave the analysts alone. Remember that most of these analysts, experts, etc. only have a 50% success rate at best. Most pro trading groups experience only a 40% success rate on average.
That means that these guys are literally tossing a coin when they make these predictions based on their own results.
Personally, I prefer an 80% or higher success rate as a measure of accurately reflecting whether traders are right or not over a longer period of time.
So here's the bottom line...if GU does rally hard north as I expect it to do, they'll come up with some kind of reason for it...maybe it'll be a news release or maybe the Brits will vote for an immediate 2nd vote or maybe the rotation of the earth will tilt 1.5 degrees in the wrong direction and change everybody's mind...it doesn't matter. The chart psychology right now says GU is setting up to go north REGARDLESS of what reason they ascribe to it after the fact.
Herd psychology is all there is...the whole world moves as a result of that herd mentality. The problem is what the herd says a lot of times isn't really what the herd is going to do...our job as traders is to discern the difference. The only way we can do that is to read the chart like a crystal ball to figure it out before hand.
The only real secret is to trade the long term charts, trade light entries, and wait. I've never worried too much about precision on entries, especially on longer time frames. I just enter before the tide changes and sooner or later, it moves in the direction I want it to go. I don't enter blindly of course...I always have technical reasons for entries based on multiple factors. If I was extremely precise, I would go with much bigger risk entries. But I've tried that before and I got burned too often. So I just take the slow, patient approach now.
I was looking through the news the last couple of days and saw a quote that went something like this...
"Careful planning, strategy, patience, dedication and 10 years time can make you look like an overnight success."
I guess that kind of fits my trading style...LOL!
Anything can happen with a crazy market for sure, stargate. But the psychology in the charts is saying something far different. It told me the buyers were dead wrong when they were buying it up before the vote and it's telling me the ones who are shorting GU at these levels are wrong also and that it's due for a stark reversal topside.
But, time will tell...I've been wrong before...LOL!
I'm keeping it light and fluffy...no stress that way.
LOL Welcome aboard the crazy train.
Long GU straight out of the gate here at 1.3439. Rolling the dice that the Goodman wave count and the TDI count are accurate and that the market has it wrong with all the bearish talk. Going strictly with the technicals here.
The EG Weekly chart is another way to get a perspective on what might happen with GU, especially with respect to the Euro.
If you really stop and think about it, is the Brexit REALLY a bad thing for the pound as far as value goes? The main benefit I see is that they're no longer responsible for helping to bail out the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain). So they basically just removed a huge financial burden off their shoulders. In my twisted way of thinking, that adds value to the pound rather than subtracts from it. I realize there are other costs involved involving trading and such but I'd have a hard time believing that those costs outweigh the benefit of no longer having to help support countries with debt that now is in the trillions.
So my take is that the Euro will suffer far more than the pound does and that the pound will actually appreciate in value, especially vs. the Euro on this chart.
I see EG setting up to head back down along with the Euro and GU heading up as a result.
Just another perspective...
Anything is possible, but I'm seeing a number of things that are stacking up in favor of GU having hit a bottom with the panic sell we saw after the vote.
The Goodman wave count was one factor. I went back and analyzed the daily TDI and found this. The TDI broke out of a long term down trend with a 5 wave move up...we would call that Wave 1. Then, we got 5 waves back down...we call that one Wave 2. Wave 2 is typically where the low comes in. So it would make sense here for us to see a Wave 3 up develop next, followed by a Wave 4 back.
What I would do is wait until the next Wave 4 back materializes and go long at that point to get the most likely high-odds long position available.
There are other factors as well, such as the Elliott wave count on the price action itself that shows 3 waves up and 3 waves back down...part of a larger 3-3-5 pattern that would lead to a 5 wave sequence back up that would, believe it or not, carry us all the way back to the previous highs near 1.72.
For now, waiting for the TDI wave 4 movement back down on the daily is the best option. But don't be surprised to see GU base in this area and start moving up.
AJ Daily Chart
The low we saw on AJ coincided very nicely with both the bottom channel trendline and that zone I mapped out the other day just below the 72 mark. This is the same weekly chart I annotated for you the other day. I dropped it to the daily and the same TDI contracting triangle pattern is evident here as well.
This is now the 7th trip down inside the channel...we normally see between 5 and 7. It's very likely it's bottoming in this area and will move up to break out of the contracting TDI triangle and the downsloping price channel as well.
And here's the EU weekly chart. In order to facilitate more downside, we need to see the TDI break below the rising wedge pattern and then come back up to retest it before the final top is in. If GU has found a bottom on the crash, as the Goodman GU wave form suggests, EU is likely to rally as well and could easily move back up along that lower price trend line.
Here's my take on the GU weekly chart, Qui. I was actually looking at this as a possible Goodman leg but I didn't think it would get there so fast. Notice the bounce...almost exactly at a completed Fat leg down that matches the Thin leg in length.
If that's the case, GU has already bottomed and will work it's way back up to the 50% retrace sitting at 1.52.
Just a possible outcome of course...I don't use Goodman theory by itself but only as one item on a total checklist...but it certainly fits the bill so far.
I'm actually looking for EU to eventually make a new low near parity before it can really gain a bottom support level that holds longer term. I'll get you a chart on EU in just a sec...
GU Weekly Chart...
I came our pretty good for the week....public account tallied 1000.6 pips profit for the week here and I mirror my primary account with the public as far as the trades go so I'm a happy camper.
I've always been an early bird when it comes to entering trades so I'm usually in well before the reversals kick in. That works against me for a while usually until it turns in my favor but the overall percentage of wins more than makes up for it.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/nettechs/waves/1539708
I think in the long run it'll work out fine once they get past all of the red tape involved. I've often said that the EU single currency experiment was doomed to fail and I still stand by that. I realize it probably made things easier when going from country to country without having to convert currencies all of the time but when you have to constantly bail out slacker countries, it doesn't pay out well in the end.
I suspect that's what the EU is most afraid of, Kermit...follow-through from other members. The Brits have set a new precedent now and if they muddle through ok in the longer run, the other members are going to start wondering why they have to stay in the EU.
It's a brave new world for sure.
Excellent job Qui!
After a while, you start getting a feel for these things. Super exaggerated moves like last night were sure to be met with some kind of nice counter-bounce due to central banks stepping into the picture.
Just keep risk at low levels and things will work themselves out. The way you know you have your risk level correct is when you are totally bored while you have trades going on, regardless of what's on tap. But if your butt starts puckering, you've gotten in too deep...LOL!
Closed my 100.80 UJ long entry for 202 pips profit. Still have one long riding for now. Looking for more topside later on as central banks have pledged to step in and stabilize the markets.
I suspect the whole world is awake and watching, Qui. A Brexit confirmation was sure to send things reeling. It was made worse by the fact that there was such a huge rally counting on a Stay vote. I'm willing to bet there are a lot of professional trading firms that bought in topside that are going broke tonight.
Just makes more money for me...let er rip!
Honestly, this last move down on UJ broke the final wedge pattern to the downside so that makes it an exhaustion move from what I can see. That means an accelerated topside move is very likely from these lower levels.
DOW implied open now down 500 points on futures...dollar is kicking butt right now.