Looking for my next Forex trade
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Just gonna let it run and see where it goes. The weekly chart that the trade is based on always has lots of slack in it...no worries.
Hope she does too, Kirby. Hoping for the best.
Back in short on NU again today. Let's see what it does this week.
I'm seriously thinking about taking up a small long position on GU again, but that may not be till Monday or Tuesday. I'm in no rush so I'll probably just eyeball the smaller time frame wave counts to see how they play out before taking a position.
Closed the last NU short for a little over break even. It's not going to move much more today and I don't want to pay interest for holding the short over the weekend. I'll pick it up again Sunday or Monday.
Wow! Pretty sharp there, SG. I wouldn't know where to begin on something like that. My dad is a lifelong mechanic and knows how but it never rubbed off on me.
Very nice!
There you are Simple! You are still kicking after all...LOL! Been missing you. I still see you're keeping busy.
Always enter odd sizes for trade entries on the original Oanda platform instead of even numbered entries. For example, if you want to trade 1000 units, take 1005 units, or 997 units instead. And if you add, be sure it's a different size the second time from the first if it's on the same pair. I've gotten into the habit of always checking my current trade size on a pair before I get ready to enter a second trade. That way, I don't fall into the trap of entering the same size twice.
Ahhh, that's the secret of all fishing...knowing where the secret spot is to drop your line in the first place. All locations have a map...just gotta learn to read the map and you're all set.
ROFL! Sometimes the stinky bait catches the biggest fish.
You'll find that I'm likely to take the trades that most folks would consider stinky.
Anytime Kirby. Glad to help.
LOL! That wouldn't do you any good. I'm trying to teach you to fish, my friend.
My maximum top end move for the day was at the 0.72 mark at the 61.7 fib retrace so I didn't mind going in heavy for a flipper near the highs. It wasn't going to get past that level based on the fib and the 30 minute TDI wave count.
I took 3.4% profit on a heavy flipper position a bit higher up. Still holding the first entry for a near term TP at 0.70 even for now.
Morning Qui. TP set for 0.70 even on the retrace but I suspect it's going quite a bit lower than that.
One other thing I should mention on TTR's setup there, Kirby. He primarily uses it as an extremely long term trading system. He typically played monthly and weekly charts and would glance at the daily charts every so often to help track them. He did play smaller time frames from time to time but mostly he stuck to really long term stuff. A few hundred pips one way or another didn't really matter much. He also sticks to big movers. He used to play silver before they took away our ability to use margin on Forex. Then he switched to USD/DKK since it had large daily pip movements.
He was basically a trend follower. He made some really good money doing it but you have to basically just set it and walk away from it and let it do it's thing.
I can help you there Kirby. TTR and I talked at length once about his trading setup. Here's a portion of what he told me on a PM about his setup. I don't think he'd mind my sharing it with you. To answer your MA question, he uses all EMA's.
"my setup are crosses
i have some ema's from 12 to 200 on charts then the cci 100 with the overlay ema30
and the macd
thats it ( if you watch them they will tell you a world of information )
when cci 100 gets into that +or - 100 ride it out till you start seeing a divergence most times macd telling you the same and the macd line on the up or down of 0.0 line
now when macd line cross after the divergence and the cci line cross the ema buy back in ( a lot of the time the price will trade sideways but the cci crossed the ema and then trades sideways with the price stay in your trade 90% of the time that cci/ema sign is right and in time it pays off
the cci 100 takes the noise out of the trade (the little head fakes )and helps me hold on for more pips"
Hello Omar!
Yes, the pound took quite a beating over your way. I made some good coin while it happened but I'm free and clear of any pound trades for now.
If you get back into trading Forex, let us know. We'd love to have your input here on the board. We have traders that use many different styles and we all learn from it as we go.
Well, the wife is calling and insisting that I jump on the honey-do list before she gets home. I've delayed it as long as I can...LOL!
Catch ya later...
I think the full package that Dean Malone has for Synergy offers something like that but I've never really looked at it to see if it could be modified. I never did like the Alert system setup as a whole because it gives too many false positives.
My most successful trading has always come from just eyeballing things manually. It forces me to stay sharp and not take anything for granted.
You can't actually lay out a 5 minute TDI baseline on a 1 hour chart, or any other time frame...that's the kicker. That's why I've never tried to experiment with it too much because I didn't want to diminish the value of the TDI as a stand alone indicator by trying to come up with something to emulate it.
The only real way to do is it to flip back and forth on the time frames.
True...but that's why we use multiple factors on a checklist. The MBL in and of itself would only be one factor on the list and I definitely wouldn't take a trade based solely on the MBL level.
But if it was part of a larger list where everything else was lined up, then it helps to stack the odds in our favor a bit more. It's just another one of the handy tools in our kit.
It's kind of like trying to figure out what your electric bill would be for any given month.
A monthly bill average could be figured out pretty easily if you took a weekly average (one step down) and multiplied it times 4. You might even be able to figure out what you use on a single day (two steps down) and multiply that out by 30, but it wouldn't be as accurate.
It definitely wouldn't be accurate if you tried to figure out how much electricity you use in an hour and carry that out to the monthly figure because there's so much variation on any given hour.
The same applies to the TDI wave counts...too low a time frame from a given starting point and you lose the accuracy.
As a caveat to the lower time frames, you could do this...
We were using no less than the hourly time frame to gauge an entry on the UCAD long. While the TDI count may not be relevant on the 5 minute chart, the slowest moving component of the TDI is relevant...namely, the market base line (yellow line).
The MBL on the 5 minute chart was just coming off the lows after bottoming at the 32 level. So we had the hourly and 4 hour charts lined up for a bounce and the 5 minute chart MBL was bottomed out. That would be an ideal entry area, as opposed to where the MBL is now on the 5 minute chart...at the top end around the 68 area.
So the best option, if we want to look for longs later on UCAD, would be to wait for another opportunity when the 5 minute MBL is at the low end of the scale.
Hopefully that will help answer your question. I've toyed around with the idea of setting up a TDI indicator that would show only the market base lines from multiple time frames but I've never put it into any kind of practical application yet.
Sometimes they will but it's best to stick with the time frame that the trade setup appears on.
In this case, I've been following the UCAD daily chart TDI wave count. So I can drop to the 4 hour chart to get a better idea of where we are in the daily count and then fine tune it with the hourly. Anything less than that would cause confusion.
Now, if I were using the 15 minute chart as the primary TDI wave count, I could then conceivably drop to the 1 minute or 5 minute chart and get some good info.
It's all relative to the scale. From the longest time frame primary TDI wave count chart, I wouldn't drop back more than 2 levels to find tune entries.
Let's say, for example, that you're using the hourly chart as you're primary TDI wave count. That would mean you could use the 30 minute and 15 minute charts to fine tune entries but I wouldn't go lower than that.
Done trading for the day, at least the day trading portion. We're a bit past 10 AM central and London is closing soon. Things will likely dry up so no sense chancing anything else today.
Everybody have a good one.
Ignore those smaller time frames for now on UCAD. We're basing our trades on the hourly, 4 hour, and daily charts. Dropping to those low time frames will only cloud the issue.
Trying to fine tune the small time frames here is like putting lipstick on a pig...it really doesn't help.
Just keep reminding yourself of what your long term goals are. You want to be financially comfortable in the next 3 to 5 years. You won't get there overnight so don't try to force it to happen any faster than the schedule you've already set.
You'll get there by taking light trades and shooting for maybe 1% a day, give or take. Some days will be better than others. Some days will totally suck...that's just the way it goes.
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Never regret trades that you didn't take...learn from them but don't regret them.
Never regret trades where you took profits.
Never regret trades where you took profits and watched price continue to go in your favor had you held it longer.
And never, never, NEVER take a trade where your butt puckers up hard enough to chew a hole in your seat. If you do, you're in too heavy...LOL!
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Hard and fast rules to live by as a trader.
Nope, definitely not. Keep your trade entries light and fluffy at ALL times. I only went heavy there (and only in the public account, not the personal one) because it was a pretty easy trade setup. I would never trade my primary account that way. The primary account pulled a standard 1% or so gain on that trade just like any other day. I was just messing around with the public account for grins and giggles.
Forgot to mention that this was one of those hourly setups that presents itself pretty much every day, Qui. The quick in and out setups give me my "fix" for day trading while I wait on the longer time frame trades to set up...best of both worlds.
Yep, I'm quite sure I closed out way too early but it was good profit so I bailed out. I'll get back in on an retest near the lows though if the opportunity presents itself.
Have a good one, Kirby.
Took 35 pips profit on the UCAD long here for now. I'm sure it'll keep moving north in a big way but I had a big margin amount on this one because it was so well laid out.
Hit and run for me on this one...netted 7.56%...nice cherry picker setup.
And no, I don't recommend that folks try going in heavy on trades...LOL!
Here's the daily chart. It's still working it's way up in a larger 5th wave push, which is where the real money is. So the lower time frames and the larger time frames agree, which is what I always look for.
To answer your other question, no, we won't have to wait till next week. We'll see green today and likely hit our target by tomorrow. But I probably won't hold all the way anyway unless it moves very rapidly towards my target.
Don't over-analyze...you wind up being like a deer in the headlights on trades at that point...LOL!
Best thing to do is, if you feel compelled to take a trade, just go in light and see how it responds. That way, you can always add later.
The larger TDI count on the daily chart is definitely still bullish on UCAD so, sooner or later, it's going to kick into high gear again to the north.
Nope, no stop loss. It's always easy to find reasons to not take a trade. I don't worry about it. As long as I have reasonable expectations and technical reasons for taking a trade, I just hop in. All we can do is try to stack the odds in our favor when we can.
Long UCAD at just over 1.2950. Looking for a move back up to 1.3065.