Looking for my next Forex trade
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EU Weekly and UJ 4 Hour Charts
These 2 are still my primary trades for now. The EU weekly still suggests that considerable topside is coming to complete a final E wave up in a larger consolidation channel before collapsing later to head towards the 1.00 parity mark. So EU longs right now are recommended.
UJ has broken the large primary channel to the downside and is retesting the lower boundaries of that broken channel. It has also formed a secondary expanding diagonal channel. Once that secondary channel breaks down, larger volume selling should kick in that will ultimately carry us towards my final target in the 1.07 area.
EU chart first and then UJ...
Hey Jav, just saw your message. Grab the top bar with the left mouse button. Hold it down and drag it all the way to the left side of your screen and then release the mouse button. It will snap back to the left side of the screen where it normally is.
Hey Heavy, good to see you posting!
I've missed this bunch for sure...trading is my first love. As soon as I get done helping out the in-laws, I'll be back here posting like crazy with charts and the rest of my addled-brain trades...LOL!
Hey SDC, how are you dude?
Dean's got some good stuff on his site and his trade room. I gleaned a lot of good info from him and other traders over the years and just kept the stuff I really liked...kind of like a trading goulash soup...LOL!
You're very right...old habits do die hard, especially bad habits. I spent years trying to "undo" all of the bad habits I picked up. Now I'm just satisfied making money long term.
Once you have it down pat, be sure to pass on what you know to others. Lord knows us retail traders have it tough enough with the majority losing overall. If a few of us get it figured out, we definitely need to teach what we can to anyone interested in learning. It takes a long time for sure but it can be done.
You guys do your best to keep the board alive and kicking here. Hopefully, I'll be done helping my brother-in-law out at the store sometime after the first of the year and I can get back to trading all the time.
The EU and UJ charts I posted the other day are starting to kick in now. Technicals win again...LOL! I just follow the long term stuff for the most part now. I usually have to hang onto them for a while till they run in my direction but the weekly, daily, and 4 hour charts are my primary bread and butter. That way, I don't have to stare at them while I'm gone all day...takes away all the stress of day trading.
Dollar rally has definitely been overdone, especially on pairs like EU and UJ. Both pairs should reverse nicely over the coming days and weeks.
Yep, it's awful quiet here Jav...nothing like the rip-roaring bunch we used to be...LOL!
Happy Thanksgiving Gang!
Finally taking a break from helping my brother-in-law at the store non-stop. I plan on doing nothing today except for a heroic effort to eat myself into a coma...LOL!
A few thoughts on some longer term trades I'm working right now...EU and UJ charts below.
Hope everyone is doing well...probably will be around Christmas before I get another break. Take care out there and get dem pips!
EU...standard elliott wave contracting triangle, filled with a total of 5 waves consisting of 3 waves each. It's set to move back up now to at least the 1.13 level from here. My current TP is set for a conservative 1.1270 on the long position.
Weekly chart...
UJ finally tagged a key resistance level inside a very narrow channel on the way up. Could still see some fluctuation in this area but the EU chart, which is currently moving exactly opposite UJ, suggests that UJ is topping here. Shorts are the play for now, with TP target at 107, with price likely to move down to fill the gap at 106.633.
UJ weekly and 4 hour charts...
TP for the NU short is set for 0.69 even for now. Gotta head out for another long day so I won't be posting the rest of the day most likely.
Everybody have a good one...
That's the question we answer with chart psychology rather than the normal "technical analysis" tools most retail traders use.
I want to figure out what they're going to do before they do it and things like the TDI wave counts along with understanding pure price action is what makes that possible. Nothing else I've found works as well.
Less is more...
Morning Qui. I threw out the word "typically" also when I threw out the rest of the stuff...LOL! All I follow now is psychology.
By the way, you fussed at me yesterday, so I'll tell you now...I shorted NU again this morning at 0.7310. Still expecting a nice drop there.
Ahhh, I gotcha...you're referring to the IF and BUT scenario. Heed these famous words...
"If IFS and BUTS were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas."
ROFL!
It's true that sometimes the scenarios you mention happen...there's also plenty of times when they don't happen, just like moving averages being hit exactly or being totally bypassed like they don't exist. You're focusing on a single level being represented as support or resistance. Or the TDI market base line being at a particular level like the 50 or the 68. Or the 21 EMA or the 169, etc.
All of these things are part of what retail traders have tried using for years to trade successfully...and the large percentage of those same retail traders fail miserably.
While it's true that each of those items can represent a tool in the toolbox, it's only a single item. Support and resistance don't mean a thing unless there's something else to back it up first. I've seen price many times make a slight break above or below a level and then watch the market do a massive reversal the other direction as traders who were counting on a "breakout" get left in the dust with lots of red in their account.
I guess the point I'm trying to get across here is that all of the standard textbook trading methods don't amount to much when applied to real world scenarios...at least not often enough to be profitable on a regular basis. If they were that reliable, everybody would be making great money and we'd all be sitting poolside in Hawaii talking about how much we made this past week.
My best trading has come from throwing most of that stuff out of the window. I can't tell you the last time I even looked at a moving average on a chart. I use fibs only occasionally and even then only to help clarify what I already see from raw price action. And I only use one indicator....the TDI.
As a result, my winning trade percentage has gone up from 70 to 80 percent accuracy (which wasn't bad) all the way up to 95% accuracy or above...which I think is pretty good (currently 98% win rate on longs and 97% win rate on shorts).
So I'm working with less and I'm getting more...all from being a student of primarily price action and chart psychology.
Ronnie Coleman is one of favorite all-time bodybuilders (from my early days of amateur bodybuilding). I heeded this advice then and I heed it now as part of my trading philosophy. Once I paid attention to it and took it to heart, my trading wins went up dramatically.
ROFL! BUt I don't always post my trades. Just like the NU shorts I made money on today. I took those based on the alignment of key characteristics in the chart and it worked out.
Heck, I could get squashed by a truck tomorrow and then you'd be out of luck. Gotta teach ya to fish and haul in a good catch without me in the picture.
Whoa...information overload there Qui...LOL!
Stick to the basics. I'm all in favor of a solid odds-enhancing check list but too much stuff in the list makes everything a jumble.
For every trade, we can likely find reasons for taking the trade and just as many reasons to not take the trade. In the end, the best we can do is find a stable system that gives us a high-odds percentage of wins over the long run and stick with it, even when it gives us losers occasionally.
The hardest part is trying not to see it where it is but where the potential is for it go based on the odds of a solid checklist.
Hind sight is 20/20. Our job is to locate those trades that look good in the rear view mirror BEFORE they take place. Most retail traders only jump into a trade long after it's materialized, making them late to the party.
I'm almost always early in and early out but I usually have a nice time while I'm there.
No problem, Qui. Here's the weekly EA chart to go along with the daily chart I posted earlier. Both charts show that Wave 4 back is completed and it's in the beginning stages of a larger weekly Wave 5 back to the topside. Actually, the topside potential is pretty extreme on the weekly chart....maybe back to as far as the previous highs in the 1.60's. But for now, I'm just going with the daily chart fib expansion based on that TDI wave count.
So basically, since both charts show a Wave 4 progression finished or finishing, all that's left is Wave 5 back up...that's the wave we always want to shoot for because it's always a good movement.
EA Weekly Chart...
True...but that's why I always take into account multiple time frames on the wave counts. What may be unclear on one time frame may become clear when viewing several, both above and below the current one.
I don't have an alert on my TDI indicator. All I use is the basic one. If you have one of the advanced ones included in a package that you purchased, it probably has an alert but you should be able to turn that off in the Properties settings for the indicator.
All I do is just count the wave progressions regardless of the pattern. Most often, the patterns wind up being some type of diagonal either expanding or contracting. The pattern isn't really very important...just the count.
Hey Qui. Finally got a bit of time to post here.
I got out of all my GU positions for now but I suspect there's still a good bit more upside coming. A conservative target would be 1.44 to the upside but GU is so expensive to trade compared to the others that I'll probably just stay out for now.
AUD/NZD still looks good for upside from this TDI Wave 4 low area. My current TP topside is set for 1.1180.
AUD/NZD Weekly Chart...
Yep, I'm always early to the party on trades for sure...not sure if that's a gift or a curse...LOL!
He's paying me to run the market of course but it's not nearly enough based on what I'm used to making trading. But since he's family I'm kind of obligated (according to my wife) to help out the brother-in-law.
As you said, I'll still be trading the long term charts just like always. I'll just miss out on some of the day trading opps but hopefully I can wake up an hour or so early and maybe catch something at the London open.
Hey Qui. Sorry I missed you this morning. I was gone all day helping my brother-in-law do the initial look-see at a grocery store he's buying. I don't know how I managed to get talked into this, but somehow I told him I would help him get the meat department up and going since he doesn't have a head meat-cutter. I still have a journeyman's license from my days long ago working at Kroger.
So now I've been sucked into giving up my retirement time for about six months or so to help him get the meat department up and going and training someone to run it. So I may not be able to post as much for a while.
Yuck! Not exactly what I had in mind.
Looks very much like a final exhaustion candle here, Qui. Time will tell.
I guess the brokers feel fully justified jacking the spreads way up on pairs like GU even though there's no news releases going on. They're just lining their pockets with the current volatility is all.
Brokers are still crooks in my book but it is what it is.
It's right at the bottom end of the zone area for the Goodman wave so here is just as good a place as any.
But, instead of adding here, I'd just let the one position ride for now. If the bounce is anything like it's supposed to be, it's better to let the one ride for profits later rather than trying to add here and average out.
GU Daily Chart Update
Just took some measurements of the Goodman wave progression on the second leg here (in white) vs. the overall leg. We're basically in the Goodman support zone in this area. Time will tell if it holds but if it does, we can easily move back to 1.45 on the lower limit bounce (38.2 of the total Goodman progression) and 1.50 on the upper limit bounce (50% of the total Goodman progression).
It can't ruin the setup. The TDI count is already keyed in and ready to roll. Price can make a new low but the potential to move a large distance is small before the bounce occurs.
No, the current hourly wave count says it's due for a bit of a bounce...it's all psychology. I just follow the charts wherever they lead me and ignore the outside noise.
The long term charts like the weekly and daily give me good trades to hold longer term so I don't have to stare at the charts all the time. The hourly chart gives me the smaller wave counts within the larger time frame TDI wave counts so I can weave in and out to get some daily gains while I wait for the larger ones to pay off.
But, I ALWAYS have the larger time frame counts in mind before I take the trade on the hourly charts for flipping. Since I use larger percentage positions on the flippers, I don't want to just jump in randomly and take a chance on going against the grain on the longer time frames.
I still always use the top-down method I recommended in the training videos I did. Start with the higher time frames and then work your way down on the TDI wave counts so you always know where you are both in the near term and the long term.
Yep, more or less. It's just a point in time when price action clustered in that area...the cluster point will vary from chart to chart. It's just a good area to shoot for as a relatively easy exit point.
Bailed out on the NU short for a few pips of profit. I want to wait now and see if we get a retest near the highs before entering short again.
That's why I don't try to go too far down on the time frames. I just count the swings and then look for divergence at the end of the swing.
You don't have to hit the count exactly. As long as you're close you'll make money. You have to spend a lot of time going back through historical charts and see how price action corresponds with the TDI wave count. Once you see it, you'll wonder how you ever missed it.
Practice, practice, practice...
Already beat you to it...LOL!
All I do on the flippers is just wait for a 5 wave count and hop in as soon as I see some kind of divergence towards the end of the 5th wave. In this case, the first 5 waves up would be a larger Wave 1 on the 4 hour chart. The next 5 waves down would be Wave 2 on the 4 hour chart. So the market is getting ready to take GU back up for another 5 wave count which would translate to Wave 3 up on the 4 hour chart.
Just count the 5 wave movements and enter accordingly.
GU Hourly chart...
Still using the 1 hour chart TDI count primarily for the flippers. It's my favorite time frame for catching flippers.
I'll usually look to take a quick 40 or 50 pips on a flipper just to meet my daily goals...nothing major.
Added a GU position for flipping at 1.3056. Holding the longer term position for now for more gains later on in the weeks to come.
Long GU at 1.3152.
Shorted EG at 0.8389. Looking for a move back down to 0.77 or so minimum.