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Hi Speck, long time, finally checked the board after a few weeks and noticed your pm. I can't say I've noticed any Mako billboards but I haven't been out looking much. I'll keep an eye out for em. Also, don't know if that's BM in your pic. I don't know him personally yet. Kinda looks like a Jerry Garcia type (kindred spirit to Ron) that ought to know all about ROVs though. Somebody please light this fuse!
MK
Just my 2 cents, but if/when/as the momo re-builds here, I'd phrase it something like "Flotation is the saving grace . . . in the short term/current view." This is not to say they may not remain the big dog around here for awhile. But I too am looking more to Mako to start showing up in a better way in the quarterly reports. It would really be great if Mako could start pulling some of the Flotec-type of revenue load at DDI.
On behalf of all of us here, Thanks for your time, expense, interest, and dedication, and excellent reporting.
thanks hank. very good advice.
thanks jds. appreciate you.
DPDW/general:
Hi everyone, good to see you all. I read the board almost daily but don't post much anymore since I lost my shirt here and don't feel I should. Still long (little choice at this point imo). This was the worst investment I've made, but I was smart enough to use only money I could afford. Still think the future here will be good. On the bright side, I was also smart (lucky) enough to smell danger coming in the broader market a good while back and moved all my real retirement money into govt. securities. Hope at least some of you did the same. Made about 4% on that last year, while the market lost almost 50%. I wonder what you guys think as far as calling a bottom on the broader markets. Yes, I do know that's the trillion dollar question. But I, like probably most everyone else, want to get some of my retirement money back into stocks at these low levels, but I don't really want to do so and see it drop another 2000 points. I don't mind missing the exact bottom and a few points, just don't want to be left completely behind either. Any thoughts? TA guys? FA guys? It will be good to chat with some of you again.
Mystic Krewe
all those costs should find their way into oil prices over the short/mid term, and that's not counting the other geopolitical factors you mentioned in your next post.
looky there, oil up 14% today
The major oil companies operate on business plans based on 100-year projections of oil prices. Shell came out of the 70's opec embargo crisis ahead of the curve because it had brainstormed that possibility in advance, and the other firms learned that lesson well. Anyway, those are my optimistic words to all going into the new year. This too shall pass. We aren't the only ones betting on it. So is Exxon. That makes me feel better. I don't think any of us will need to wait too long for a price rebound. Even a modest rebound to $65-70 per barrel would support plenty of future deepwater, imo. Happy New Year everyone. Best wishes to you.
DR target still $2.50!
regardless of who turns out to correctly guess the future price of oil, the best case scenario all the way around, for us stockholders of DPDW and for the nation as a whole, is to have the price of oil be cheap enough to help spur the broader economy yet still be profitable for DPDW and the oil industry. whatever that number is, that's the one i'm wanting to see. it won't be as fun getting rich off DPDW if we are driving our luxury automobiles through nothing but slums. feel me? word. ;)
Hi Soyelpato, good to hear from you again. I've been stewing on this talk of possible OPEC cuts, and I've come to the conclusion it would be another classic double sword. A) keeping oil high by cutting supply, while it might give us some period of anxiety relief in the oil patch, B) i'm not so sure that we need high oil in a stock crash. Seems like that would be highly inflationary to me if we had expensive oil and everything else was devalued. Demand is surely dropping as we speak, so oil cuts may attempt to be merely stationary equilibrium. But this is not a normal, everyday source of our dropping demand. We are dropping real wealth. A recovery may come sooner if oil comes down to help out, no? your thoughts?
chloe, the hurricane you need to worry about it blowing through Wall Street right about now.
of course, a breakout to the high side, i'd take too.
btw, i'll take being lockstep with the energy sector any day over being lockstep with the financial sector.
if, as you say (and i don't necessarily disagree on this point) that DPDW moves lockstep with big oil, wouldn't a pr be reduced to very minimal effect anyway? surely big oil is still putting out positive prs, and look what it's got them? i'm glad we aren't pr-ing into this mess. we've never pr'ed for any ulterior reasons, and it would make the least sense to begin doing so now. if it comes, it will be without strings. as for those who predicted a return to the .30s, a) the entire market is being referred to as the crash of 2008--the DOW has lost about 42% since Oct. 1--do you really think you predicted this? because that's the cause, not anything else you delusionally believe, and b) if you purport to simply be happy to get this entry, are you sure you have the money? you might want to check on that while you're cheering us down. (not specifically you, goose, but you know what i mean).
GO DPDW GO!!!
from what i've read lately, commodities like gold, oil, etc., are where alot of people are going right now when looking for better returns than treasurys, so that should help us. other stocks, not so much. but a real recession usually lowers everything to some extent. question is, if that's what we are facing, how long and how deep will it be? it's not a matter of ever stopping the drilling. it's a matter of the commodity being of a price to keep its industry expanding rather than contracting. we are well above that price, and everyone in this stock hope it stays that way. start-ups have a harder time with contractions than do mature majors, who can simply pull back and wait until it's time to expand again. our mngmt is positioning us to be a part of everyday maintenance/repair of completed wells, which will be maintained even when the price won't support expansion. that's obviously a great thing, but price and demand do affect rates. getting lower rates are, however, better than getting no rates at all.
2 young pros with their families at the local high school football in coastal La. Eventually the guys start talking about the magic number. The number oil has to stay above to keep a relatively productive, local, o/g infrastructure running. In between touchdowns by the home team, and the (god bless em) band playing everything loudly, both guys (one directly involved in the industry) and the other guy (let's say he's tangentially involved,) bandy some numbers about: 40, 50, 60, 70 bucks per barrel of oil. Their consensus was the magic number was somewhere between 60 and 70. They left by halftime, kids.
um, i think they'll hold those 57MM shares until they hit $10, funmike, why, what do you think, huhm?
money should be flooding into this sector
CNN: storm surge much less than predicted. http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/14/ike.surge.ap/index.html
Yes, after all, a hurricane stock is part of what DDI is.
the $$$ is rolling in with the tide, imo.
lol. doesn't one of our companies make a jupiter moon probe, or something? lol.
Thanks, but Same goes for TX! If you remember, alot of cajuns were proud of how they handled Rita compared to how N.O. handled Katrina. Totally different deals, so I never really thought it fair to compare those 2, but anyway, suffice it to say that most all Americans are very resilient, no matter where they are. And to think it was only a couple months ago we were talking about how hurricanes could hit Morgan City and Houston. I said then that it's no fun, but it's nothing these folks can't handle. And these DDI businesses are hard core. DDI companies make products that handle environments that are much harsher, and their facilities are reflective of the experience they all have in operating on both the coast and offshore. They will handle this without much problem, imo.
yes, and we're open.
Read This:
Thanks Brikk, we are fine. Not unscathed, but fine nontheless. My business had major roof issues on our top floor, and the leaking basically ruined the entire floor. Our deductible is $100,000, and that's probably the damage, at least. The problems started with Gustav and worsened with Ike. However, my business reopened the day after Gustav, and we will be open Monday morning too. This is the norm, not the exception, for the GOM, and DDI will be no different. My area took a direct hit from Andrew, and my business was reopened 3 days later, and we didn't get power for 3 weeks. And my business is white collar. DDI will be fine, and i expect them to not miss a single order, and if they have any production downtime at all it will be very minimal. And even if they did, which I highly doubt, nothing will stop the work orders from piling up. After all, DDI has about 2 competitors worldwide, and they all will have more work orders than they can handle.
chloe, you have it exactly backwards. hurricane+damage=profits for ddi.
i can confirm mako is fine. i'm just west of mako (closer to the eye landfall), and we're fine. just got done cleaning out the gutters. and we never really lost power.
good grief, sorry but you don't know what you're talking about. pay attention please. look at the LIVE camera shots. DDI's production facilities are basically metal buildings. if the siding is ripped off, it gets replaced, bingo. they'll clean up any debris and be working again immediately, even if the office space got any damage. even if they were unable to get city power, they would be making their own with generators. if you don't understand this, you just don't want to or you don't have a clue.
11pm tonight max, if they have no back-up power, imo. landfall is predicted for 2am. judging by the weather i'm getting in south la, with my power going off and on, my guess is they lose power or they shut it off by midnight. channelview will be getting some very high wind even 4-5 hours prior to landfall, judging from the sat views. they're already getting some.
and i doubt oil will remain below $100 for long
ike will dwarf the oilfield damage of gustav.
yep, those are waves of thunderstorms/weather bands, and they are quite strong.
yes, they are going to go through some bad times for the next few weeks. we sympathize and empathize with them.
huge. we're getting those outer bands now.
imo, we have been way undervalued for a long time, and all these recent events are going to start a big reawakening.
great close. we're going to take off soon, imo.
i'm 300 miles away and we are flooding with 50 mph gusts