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Yea, I thought the same thing..
Just for kicks, I may enter a larger position on Monday. NOthing crazy, but either to potentially make some money...
Funny story:
I bought $100 worth of SEHO a couple months ago, just on a lark. It changed its symbol to CAAH. I'm actually up 62% since I bought the stock. Actually, I am entertaining the thought of buying a more substantial piece of it. What do you think??
Goodfoot's watchlist:
Well, I'm a little miffed that I didn't at least post about MBI last night like I wanted to. Hit that one pretty good today. Even buying a dip this morning turned out pretty good.
Right now, I'm still short CMI and JWN. I like MER on the plus side as well. To be honest, with this potential sideways market, I'm a little gun-shy. I'm only lightly trading DIA even...
Don't worry Lang:
I'm smelling the reversal myself. If there's a dip, I might average down and/or short. And of course, I'm taking profits...
guitar: All over some DIA calls myself...
I think we'll test 13,500 in the near-term. I too will be flipping DIA for some quick scalps..
I agree definitely about DRYS.
What's your take on DIA right now? In all honesty, that chart's looking good short-term. Might look to scalp it tomorrow ahead of the fed...
Props to GAME and Wonderbuy for VIP:
Based on your viewpoints and opinions and some of mine as well. I bought a modest position in VIP (VIQLG) on Monday. Today, I happily cashed in my +50% profit after commissions. Thanks for the insight yall!!
Hindenburg Omen? Did you make that up?lol
I don't know much about Dow primary theory, heisenberg compensators, flux compacitors, or what the heck ever!!lol I do know about trendline breaks, Fib retracements, and volume-influenced indicators. For the moment, they've served me well (knock on wood).
"Moderate" chance at some modest upside. 12,500 still in the offing mid-term. Today lots of real estat-oriented stocks paid the shorts off nicely. XLF in general (XLFXC in particular) paid off 50%ish percent intraday.
In my opinion, bearish "average-down" strategies will pay off through the rallies. Like our esteemed colleague Wonderbuy proports, straddle/strangle plays to hedge risk will be ok, but moderately unnecessary in my opinion.
In a nutshell, short the rallies, average down through an uptick in solidly bearish sectors and charts, in particular financials and real estate.
Unfortunately, I still sense this sideways market short to mid term. I think stock picking will be at a premium...Good Luck!!
WB: I've heard alot about the ADX.
I need to learn how to read that indicator in more detail. Right now, they just look like squiggly lines to me!!lol
Hey Wonderbuy:
Is it your opinion that YHOO is putting in a bottom now?? Its chart is starting to look pretty good.
Whoops, sorry about that Wonderbuy:
I see now that YOU didn't buy ACM calls, you were merely commenting about it. I thought that seemed weird for you...all your picks that I've analyzed have been pretty solid.
By the way, averaged down XLF puts on Friday....I believe I posted here....sitting at about 30% profit right now. Not bad for one day...
While I hesitate to dispute WB, I'm with daillo on ACM.
Especially buying the Dec calls. Even with at least some decent indicators, the potential for this stock to languish right around where it's at is pretty good IMO. I would stay away until I got a better trendline-break confirmation. At this point, it's a little too speculative for my taste.
I concur with WB, NEM looks good.
I hope you're right about ERIC Wonderbuy
I've been holding some long-term calls on this one for awhile. Until last week, I really thought the downside risk was priced into this stock. I guess NOW I hope that I'm right, just early.
WB: I hate CC but it scares me a little.
Bought XLFXC Dec29p @ 1.4
I love the light volume bounces in crappy sectors..
Yes, closes at 1pm. Bought Dec105p(CDMXA)@ 5.00
Bought CMI Dec80p(CMIXP)@ .40
hoticetea: I am also with TDameritrade
Just so you know, the commissions are $9.99 and $.75 per contract in and out.
Friday's Trades:
TEN: Broke support @ around $29.
CMI: Same thing. Buying Dec 80p (+CMIXP)
SPW: This chart has several deliciously sucky things about it.
Moving out to the Jan 85p (SPWMQ) because of a potential
protracted downtrend and the OI. MACD crossover already
confirmed ( if you believe in that sort of thing). Now we
multiple crossovers at 0 (circled) that all point south.
Lang, Wonderbuy, and everyone else:
I need just a bit of knowledge on call/put "picking". Right now, I've been picking the direction of the stocks pretty well, but I think my selection of calls/puts to purchase been so good.
Case in point: LDK. Stock drops like a rock intraday yesterday and the Mar15p that I own (DLOOC) didn't even budge. WB gave me some insight about time premiums the other day and I've been buying recent puts on shorter time-frames. After you've zeroed-in on the stock you want to target for profit, is there a "rule-of-thumb" that is to say, a quick reference that would help me pick the actual options that I buy better. Also,
Thanks in advance. Have a great thanksgiving everybody!!
Don't tell me what to do Wonderbuy!!!
lol Just kidding. It's been a pleasure communicating with you, lang, Game, and others on this board since I joined. 4 days off then we'll attack this crappy market again on Monday!! Have a great Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving Matador!!
I can't say I'm enthralled with the retailers right now. I've shorted JWN and even though it was up, I feel future downside in its future. Best of luck my friend.
Holding support by a fingernail:
The Cosmic Forces picked a good time to give us a 2 day holiday. The prospects for an absolute reversal and confirmed downtrend get better and better. Frankly, I'd also welcome it at this point. The prospects for a sideways, languishing market are very good IMO. From my perspective, limited "quick scalps" both long and short will be better to gauge than longer-term "trending" patterns. Obviously, those trends will be there. I'm talking in general terms.
From my analysis (whatever THAT'S worth!!lol), I'm revising yayaa's support level of 12,845. I think the true support's closer to 12,800ish. In this down market, I'd have liked to see the volume dry up more to anticipate a reversal/retracement from this bearishness. As I've said, I smell a sideways market, which basically SUCKS in my opinion. Good luck all.
Game: How bout GME??
We talked about those puts on the 16th. Um, I'd say that was a pretty good read on your part. Congrats!!
Lang: Be careful with FSLR.
For reasons that I as yet can't confidently explain, most of the solars are getting hammered. Logic would dictate that FSLR can't stay immune forever. Good luck.
Congrats Scon!! Thought about this one a week ago...
Yayaa: I concur with the 12845 support level
I just don't see a mega bull market as our reward for holding that level. Right now, I'm less concerned with picking the overall market direction and more concerned with picking opportunities in specific stocks. And the the absence of a legit trend either way, I'm hitting them clean and quick.
Wonderbuy: Beats me, I can't remember.lol
There's indications of some accelerating volume on those down days.
Quick scalp for Wednesday: IYR
A "mega rally"? Um, I don't think so.
As I stated in my previous post with the chart, at BEST I see a sideways market. A little up or a little down. But I'm very skeptical about anything beyond that. Frankly, I would bet on a mega TANKING before a mega rally.
Lang: I actually got lucky yesterday. Strangled HPQ, sold my puts right around noon, and am still holding the calls. Hope for an overall market bump today and then I might score both ways. Oh wait.....that didn't sound right!!lol
Good luck
Today's watchlist: JWN (JWNXF) puts, C (CXT) puts
Brutal market awaits:
I don't even think it will be an entirely bear market either. At least in an absolute downtrend, you could trade the downside movement. This market just has the smellings of a trading range coming up. First of all, the uptrend's absolutely been broken, this is no retracement. However, 12800ish is holding, and frankly I think it will hold, even though I hope it DOESN'T!! Even though I'm long alot of stocks, a break at that support would definitely bring 12100ish into play. Which means the put opportunities would be plentiful IMO.
Short-term, the MACD on this chart suggests a bounce. It's just too beat up. Hopefully, it'll be enough of a bounce so I can cover some long positions at some kind of profit.
If I was a betting man, I think we'll drift around in a range from 13000-14000. I really don't think we'll get right back all the way to 14K, but somewhere in there. It'll probably take certain ETFs and index shorting securities off the table. Stock picking will have to be good! Good luck
Beware the retailers
Unless there's a crazy gap-down at the open tomorrow, JWN's dam near a screaming short tomorrow. A quick-hit tomorrow or the next day seemed a forgone conclusion.
I'm looking at the Dec30p myself...
Only scalps today were puts
HPQ, TCO, and HOC puts all came through at a modest profit. Even the downside of my ID and PWER strangles were the only parts that were worth mentioning. It sucks so bad right now, tomorrow I may just be hitting the shorts exclusively without any hedges. As I posted several days ago, a full-on bear market is in the offing...
yea Matador, I was talking about Hewlett-Packard
Monday's Watchlist:
YHOO, CRM calls, HPQ, PWER, ID, TCO puts, HOC puts
QQQQ, I would be a touch more cautious.
The charts looks very similar, but I think more factors will affect the Nas that HPQ might avoid. Even way, I'll be hedging short-term against the downside risk and going long with calls that are farther out of the money and longer expiration times. Right now, I'm looking at the Dec 45p/Feb 60c. I may move those calls to a longer time-frame...
Also, I'm not a premium member Matador, so I couldn't reply to your message. I don't trade "much" intraday. Meaning I don't watch it every second. Unfortunately, I also have a sucky real job and can't retire to full-time trading just yet. But it's coming, as long as I don't get stupid!!lol
I like HPQ as well.
Thinking about hedging towards a short-term downtrend with Dec puts (45s) and buying the Feb 60 calls.