Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
300m cash in exchange for 2-yr 250 structured loan @ 10%.
if FXCM is sold within the next 2 years...LUC gets 75% of proceeds.
if you think this is going to zero then buy RSH Feb 20 2015 .5 Puts
They only cost you 30 cents each. If rsh files for BK then you can make 66% profit.
Unlike shorting...most you can lose is the initial investment. Plus I don't think you can even short RSH at this point without paying outrageous margin expenses.
i doubt they can get another cash infusion outside of BK....they are already leveraged up pretty good. Whomever has the cash is going to want a significant ownership chunk in exchange. This is very unlikely to happen outside of bk. Just a matter of timing now.
lets be real...acquisition VERY unlikely.
-RSH has a lot of DEBT
-RSH has too many poorly performing stores
-RSH products are mostly private label
-RSH shareholder equity is NEGATIVE
A buyer would have to take on the debt and still restructure.
BK will clean up the balance sheet significantly and allow RSH to break leases for the poorly performing stores. Outside of BK alot of these options aren't available or cost $$$.
If i really wanted to by RSH...I'd wait until during or after BK.
agree...who wants to hold over the weekend. i expect end of day dump
probably much less than that IMO
popping 10% today...news? Silver is down
other miners are up but not nearly as much
copy the title, go to google, paste and add WSJ
full article
guess i was getting to used to the low volume day after day. I'd like to see some consolidation in the mining industry. Think AG and PAAS makes sense. AG and GPL makes sense...hell PAAS, AG, and GPL make sense.
Probably...but something still seems fishy to me.
AG traded up on 7x normal vol. PAAS traded up on about 3x normal volume. Another name often linked with AG as a potential buy-out is Great Panther. Great Panther traded down 17% on 17x normal vol and no news. Weird movement in the silver miners today. Wonder if some mergers are coming soon?
Long term... Good idea
Short term i believe it goes lower. Oil at 80 dollars, more countries reporting deflation. I cannot imagine this is good for any commodity
i don't track TiO2 prices but I wouldn't be surprised to see it down for the same reasons as oil. Increasing production and decreasing demand. Tronox needs this cash to weather a downturn. The market and global economy is looking choppy. Trox is better off hoarding this cash for now.
right...duck tales
i am going to swim in my CT cash Duck Tails style
i sold a while ago on valuation. Sadly I think in a very bad market this goes to 15-ish
TROX is cyclical and those dont do well in down markets. Expect TROX to continue to go the direction of the market.
If CTs are not in BK, I wonder why they are able to defer interest beyond 20 quarters. I don't doubt what EPIQ told everyone. It's been a curiosity since the beginning with the deferred interest, Q symbol, and halted/unhalted trading.
Yo Jersey...its good to be back. We'll see if I can jump back into the fray.
Back in the states and following Lehman everyday again. Lots of great work.
Hello All
I must say I am more excited now for us CT holders now than I've been in many years. Those who have been aboard from 2008 will know who I am.
Troy
I'm happy with that price even if i cannot get back in lower
Not yet. Sold at 25.90 ish
Waiting for a bigger pull back to 20
I sold my position on Friday on strength. May be able to repurchase a few dollars cheaper if they go thru with an acquisition. I rotated some into Kronos as a possible target
Did anyone else reading the update get the sense that PAL is for sale?
All in my opinion...I don't run a multi-billion dollar business.
KRO is valued at 2.15B market cap. As of Dec 13 about 15% shares were short (we probably saw some covering of that today).
TROX is valued @ 2.63B as of today plus some unknown tax benefit.
Tronox is vertically integrated and produces HIGH quality tio2. Whereas I believe KRO sits in the space being abandoned by Dupont and aggressively being built up by the Chinese.
Also, KRO has a bizarre ownership structure which I believe is partly responsible for keeping the float low (~20M) and price high.
I think KRO would have made sense a month or two ago when it was trading 20% lower. How much more would TROX have to pay?
It also yields a health dividend of 3.5% because the owner Mr. Simmons, through NL and Valhi own most of KRO. The dividend also probably kept the price up. If the dividend goes away, who knows what happens to the price.
Anyway..my 2 cents. Doesn't mean the deal couldn't happen. If so, prepare for TROX to decline.
Kro is already fairly or overpriced imo
Sadly I am no longer in the Fatherland.
This is of course a very tricky and nuanced point. I am not certain that many folks within LEH ever understood the CTS to begin with.
I don't believe the CTs have intrinsic redemption value per se. I believe the value of CTs is derived from the trust claim in the BK. I think this claim will provide CT holders an avenue to own future assets/earnings/part of new LEH, or provide some type of direct settled recovery.
I know this doesn't answer your question. Sorry
Troy
Hey Jersey, of course I am still here. I am also holding 100% of my CTS until the very end. I recently moved back to the US from Germany. Its good to be home and for the most part I am reading every post each day.
My opinion is just as valid as everyone else here...just an educated guess. However, I feel that we should be wrapping this up in the next 18 months. I do believe that the CTs will become the owners of the restructured Lehman.
I also believe that the fed tapering will ultimately benefit LEH. When the market finally starts to go down, banks will be looking for returns. I think they will see the value of what remains in Lehman and want to bolster their balance sheets before the bubble completely bursts.
Just remember, Peck was in WAY over his head. Before he presided over Lehman's 600B+ bk, the largest BK he ever handled was something like <5B. He was not that fantastic of a judge and in my opinion his departure has no bearing on Lehman's future. In fact he probably delayed leaving to see Lehman a bit further thru the process.
my two cents
Shaft hoisting began today
First Majestic upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James Raymond James upgraded First Majestic due to the recent pullback in shares and views it as a top pick in silver.
Terrible day for silver and FM. How much longer can we take this? Silver down 7%. Whats changed..still harder than ever to dig this out of the ground.
Used todays drop to add. Ag is poised ti run to 20 on increasing silver production and price
Your thesis may be 100% spot on. However, momentum may push this higher in the short term.
"Contrary to some confused reporting by CNBC, this means the stock has not been presold, and that Citi will proceed like any normal secondary/follow on offering whereby it has to sell the stock in the distressed retailer at a substantial discount (5? 15%? 25%?) to prevailing prices."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-26/ackman-folds
"would love to see how they're going to place that amount of shares"
At a much lower price than 13 would be my guess
"Bloomberg reported that Bass took a long position in the retailer via secured loans"
IMO this means that Kyle Bass didn't buy shares in open market. He is positioning himself as a creditor.
This reading is critical:
JCP Burns Gargantuan $2.1 Billion In First Six Months: The Only Chart That Matters
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/477791
"being long the term loan is not being bullish on the company; it is being bullish on the fulcrum security in a bankruptcy filing"
Not so much now
Agree. Also, I must correct myself. Ackman has 37M shares.
Tomorrow will be interesting
Troy