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Nope. about noon the 'ask' was fully stacked again. according to thompson fn over the last month nearly 70% of the trades were completed by institutional interests. since only 5% of the float is institutionaly owned - i think its clear to assume that this stock is not run by traditional market forces. . its soooooo frustrating to know that how you do on this investment is mostly determined by hyperion's strategy to making money (i.e. short, long, short, long etc.)
Finally, today it looks like the "ask" side is easing up. Usually there would be block and block of orders at each .01 increment in price. It appears to me that Hyperion is going to let the retail momentum carry things up into the CC for a change. I bet we see a good percentage increase today on lower than normal volume.
I hope there is some good news tomorrow to warrant an upward shift in valuation.
Baja
Pez,
the action after 2 pm yesterday has me stumped.
Fred,
Price wise, where do you anticipate GMGC will end up leading into the CC. I couldn't read a technical chart if tried, but, I'm rolling the dice that we hit half a buck on or just before the 24th. I'm also expecting to see a SHARP sell off right after the CC - as we head into the next resetting period.
IMO the sharks got rid of about 3 million shares today which I think puts them at having sold approx 5 million of the 33 million purchased in the last round. I expect that they will be able to unload another 15 million or so prior to the CC. That will leave them long about 13 million shares, a profit of approx $4.5 million (25 million sold at an average cost of .39) and they will likely go short for 15 million shares during the reset period. After the price is set - they cover their short positon with their outstanding long side and go long until GMGC needs more money. I'm in the wrong business.
Baja33
Fred,
Muell?
Pez,
That's right. This stock goes up or down because Hyperion (or whomever in the past) want it to. GMGC could be selling cement right now and the stock would still go up or down depending on what the sharks strategy is. It has almost nothing to do with product, busines plan etc. Managment is at fault (but they need the cash so they play along). Watch for a string of PR's between now and April 24 (like today's). IMO Hyperion have just about finished covering their short postition and will be looking to unload at least 3/4 of their 33.3 million shares. volume should pick up and i think our little stock will move higher going into the CC. Badger on the RB board is good at picking up on these shifts in momentum . Fingers crossed.
Pez,
i am invested on a technical basis (its hard to keep my emotion outof the scenario with so much at stake). Hyperion will crank this think up again and i'll be there to hit the trigger to get out when they do. best of luck to you pezman.
you could double down to get your avg cost in the 40's or 50's
Pez,
Do you have many shares?
Baja
dave,
I read your posts sometimes on RB. I tip my hat to you for your unrelenting due dilligence on this stock. The volume today was curious to me..what's your take on the increase? What/who's shares are being sold at these prices IYO?
Regards,
It appears to me that Hyperion has created a nice little trading range in order to cover its short position (e.g. load the Ask at .24,.25, .26, .27 and load the Bid at .20, .21) Retail units forced to sell below the stacks and stacks of shares offered by Hyperion at .24 through .27 while they just sit and pick off the retail guys one by one. This way they don't have to cover their short postion into buying strength and it doesn't cost them a thing other than some admin person messing with the board all day. I think they had about 12MM shares short, so, if they are able to cover 1MM a day in this range it should take them roughly 12 trading days to get out of their short positon completely. I think they started covering on Thursday (right after they announced the deal at $0.21,,when the stock was trading at $0.26-$0.28) of last week, so, around the 15th they should be done. THEN...they with the stock price so depressed from the way in which they covered their short position, they announce a new equity deal and go long for the next few months. QUITE SHARKY OF THEM.
For a stock that's float is only 5% institutionally owned they sure have alot of institutional trading going on these days. Take a look at the I-watch section of the GMGC RB board. Today's action (so far) is 82% institutional - Hyperion is clearly posturing for their next move (whatever it may be).
Pez,
I do honestly believe that $.021 is the bottom for this stock, given that the equity deal was completed at this price. A great entry point for anyone looking to make a double or slightly more in the next month or two. I just wish I had waited. I loaded up on Thursday and Friday of last week at $0.26 thinking that Hyperion would let it run slowly up. I guess the next round of equity is to close from a timing perspective to make the same sort of run they did at the end of January prior to. The next round will be done at $.021 less 20% in my opinion then that will be it until the end of the year (when cash breakeven is anticipated to be reached). IMO, now's the time most people stuck in at averages costs of more than $.050 should be making a move - the risk is limited. Hey look, if Rom (who has lost $180K) on this stock is back in AND Chunderr (the expert investor in GMGC) is back in - it just may be the right time - but who really knows. I can convince myself of just about anything.
Thanks for you reply Fred. I was basically referring to my heavy investment in tech altogether (the dot.bomb comment was probably not the right way to explain my situation). I started investing in Aug-2000 after the peak. I have been trying to catch a falling knife ever since. I have averaged down on most my large cap tech stocks to a more reasonable cost (and I can live with where I am invested on these). The dark cloud over my head is GMGC - If I can just get back to even on this one ($0.53) I will only be down approx 20% on the rest overall.
Diversification really is the key I've learned. Bonds and consmer staples etc. are not the sexiest investment but, man, do I ever wish I had the balance they provide!
As for Magic don't think that we are now and forever going to be a $0.15 to $0.25 stock FOREVER. I think there will be a few more kicks at the "can". It's just soooooo painfull as Pez describes things to watch the manipulation and posturing of the guys running market on this stock.
Pez,
My understanding was that there were 10 different buyers of the 33.3M shares. This fund only invested $2 million of the $7 million raised. I believe that Hyperion are going to manage the investments for these 10 clients. The Hyperion guys are traders - they are the ones running the market on GMGC. Unfortunately it looks like they are driving the price down for the next round of financing. It really suprises me though given how long it will take for them to dump the shares when we are only trading approx 1.5M a day. I though for sure they would run it up and dump some of the 33.3M for their 10 clients at a nice gain.
Uh...yeah w/601,900 shares i'd say i've got a slight concentration issue. My plan is to sell into the strength of the next little run up. At this point, I'm just trying to get my original investment back.
I agree with you that the latest investors will want to see some solid return on their 7 large. I just hope they run it over .50 so I can get my a s s out of dodge. I do like the technology and hope the company is able to pull out of this - but for me its simple survival right now - I'm betting on the greed of the sharks. The only thing that concerns me is that since the announcement of the last round of equity the share price has slid when in the past it has gradually moved up. They have 33.3MM shares to sell - it doesnt make any sense to me why they have been stacking the Ask at .25 and .26 for the last couple of days when they can easily let it run a little at a time.
I've learned a lifetime of lessons from this one company and the market in general since the dot-bomb. Never again will I make the same silly mistakes.
Fred,
what are your thoughts on GMGC getting pushed down to the small cap index. It doesnt look like we are going to see $1/share price anytime soon and the clock is ticking. This .01 cent per day thing is dreadfull to watch. What is your time horizon for this investment?
Hi Folks. I have been an investor in GMGC since Aug-2000; what a dissapointing ride. Here's hoping that the sharks will run this thing up again before the next round of financing in, I believe April (from RB board). They have 33.3MM shares to blow out and I cannot believe that they would keep the downward pressure on the price in order to reset below .20 again. Assuming that GMGC raises an additional 7MM shares the sharks are going to have approx 70MM shares to get rid of (which would take them months upon months at current trading volume).
I use to have a long term strategy for this stock, but, have come to the conclusion that the only possible way to make any money on magic (which i have yet to do) is to swim along side of the sharks. I've spent the last 2 years averaging down, and down and down and down to a point where I think I can make a few bucks if the sharks stop loading the ask every day. I am afraid though that we will break support at .23 today (of course after I spent the last 2 days buying at .26) and from there it's anybody's guess where it ends up (short term) - Good luck all.