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ClayTrader...SLM please,tia
Congrats Tim, hope you had a nice B-day.
Tempo
My thoughts exactly when I read the PR, Dspetry.
Tempo
You might like to read this regarding the DTCC...
http://www.ncans.net/files/Response%20to%20DTCC%20Deputy%20Counsel%20Thompson%20-%20Robert%20Shapiro...
Tempo
GM new troubles ahead...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&gui...
My Jan6 30P flying!
Tempo
From Stockschool;12 Things to Remember When Reading a Financial Statement
1. Trust Management? Credibility of the management can only be judged over time by watching how they disclose the inevitable ebb and flow of their business. Do they come right out and say: "We had a rotten year and here's why?" Or do you have to wade through a lot of public relations claptrap to get to the paragraph that states earnings were rotten? If there is bull in the text, there is liable to be bull in the financial presentation.
2. Fundamentals. You actually have to read the financials -- all the way through. Dull as it may be, an awful lot is there if you bother to look. You have no one to blame but yourself if you get blown up by a stock when it was all there in the footnotes while you were too busy insulting someone in the chat rooms.
3. Everything's Relative. Compare a company's growth and margins with those of its competitors and industry statistics. If these are so much better than everyone else's, are they a) geniuses, or b) padding the numbers? In more technical industries, there are clearly better widget propositions that make one company perform better than another. And economies of scale clearly help market-share giants like Budweiser and Frito-Lay. But what were people thinking when Sunbeam announced double-digit growth in gas grills, which had been a single-digit growth market since forever? That global warming was really here and the entire Midwest and New England had decided en masse to upgrade their grills in anticipation of year-round barbecues?
4. The Fewer the Restructurings, the Better. This has been the black hole of earnings management, as there are so many contra-accounts set up that can whip dollars back and forth that no one can possibly pretend to understand what is really going on. A number of companies begin to restructure the minute growth starts slowing, thus obscuring the fact. When in doubt, discount the earnings of a chronic restructurer.
5. Pooling and Fooling. It is understandable why a company with a price-to-sales ratio of 25 would want to use high-priced stock to make acquisitions. It would be stupid not to, since the money is almost free. But poolings have enormous scope for abuse, and it is difficult to get a handle on things like internal growth rates for a company that has pooled itself a half-dozen times. It destroys the ability of the investor to understand what management is buying, at what price and with what returns. This puts you in the position of buying the "trust me" story -- which does not always have a happy ending.
6. Follow the Cash. The checkout folks at the supermarket do not take reported earnings -- they take cash. Even something as simple as looking at the base line in the cash flow statement -- cash flow from operations -- can sometimes keep you out of disaster. Pay attention to what is being added and subtracted from reported earnings that are non-cash. Cash flow growth that is consistently lower than earnings growth can be a major red flag.
7. Timing Is Everything. Look particularly close at earnings when a company announces an acquisition in an earnings release. It's sometimes coincidental -- but often a distraction from the fact that the core business is soft.
8. The Old Reliables. Comparing inventory and receivables growth with sales growth is the oldest and most readily apparent warning flag of a problem.
9. Material Accounting Changes. Please read the footnotes: Are asset depreciation schedules getting pushed out, thus boosting earnings? Have pension accounting changes swung the company from reporting a cost to reporting a benefit, a la GE (GE:NYSE) and Lucent (LU:NYSE)? Are they capitalizing where they used to expense? You won't know it unless you look.
10. Use the Proxy Statement. The accounting treatment of stock options is highly contentious, and frankly we are still sorting out how to best account for the extent of expense avoidance and real share dilution from option giveaways. But regardless of your technical competence, if options outstanding are a material percentage of shares outstanding, it is safe to say that "net to the shareholder" will be less than you think, that compensation expenses are probably understated and therefore that earnings are overstated.
11. Keep It Simple. If you don't understand it, and don't have complete confidence in management, move on. I'll steal the line from Warren Buffett: It is far easier to avoid the dragon than to slay it.
12. Beware the Serial Rollup. Has there been a huge spate of acquisitions in a short period of time? Do you wonder how a management team can process so much in such a short period of time? Often, they can't, and as the fortune in the cookie says, "Fast-moving water obscures sharp rocks underneath." As a result, roll-up strategies invariably become a short-sellers dream. If Tyco managers can make something out of what they have absorbed in the last five years, then they are truly an exception.
KP, more on Chinese gaming...
New China Online Game Report Promises Growth
April 4, 2005
In a new report on China's online gaming market, IDC says it expects mainland China's online gaming market to show steady growth over the next five years with a relatively high compound annual growth rate of 34.7%.
The "China Gaming Market Analysis and Forecast 2004-2009" report, jointly released by IDC China and China Game Publishers' Association, a subordinate to China's General Administration of Press and Publication, estimates that the telecom revenue directly generated by online gaming in China in 2004 amounted to US$1817.9 million.
"Rapid Internet development has fueled the growth of online gaming, which has impacted various sectors like telecom, Internet, computer, software, and consumer electronics," says Grace Zheng, Senior Analyst, Cross-Product Research Group, IDC China.
However even as many mobile companies are shutting down because of poor wireless offerings and government sanctions, the report points to high future growth in the mobile gaming sector
Thx Tim.
Have you done some DD on Strat?
I'm in since the beginning, pre R/S. Just luck I guess, but I'm holding on to my shares.
Interesting story, big potential.
Take care.
Tempo
"If you intend for that message to have a negative effect on Janice (and positive effect for Varok), you've done just the opposite"
No such intention at all.No need for that,Shell is doing a great job for that matter.
Just wanted to give a little push against the soft bashing thats going on here.
If a 24/7 basher is given credibility on this board,and her tactics too, then I can't stay silent.
Tempo
CMKX 24/7basher Shell; good character description...
By: Varok
25 Mar 2005, 02:04 PM EST
(This msg. is a reply to 867099 by Janiceshell.)
Of course you don't have a position..I don't think anybody here or your other stomping ground (ihub) believes you do.
As well, you can't justify your miserable existence by convincing folks you are a Good Samaritan.That is complete BS and hogwash..
You are a known basher that has been proven over and over again..
You are dishonest and deceitful manipulative old *&^%$ with an ulterior motive..
The MMS have taken all the stops by bringing cretins like yourself to this thread and for the last couple of weeks and now your presense with other known bashers can only ampify this course and your intent.
Bashing a stock during the halt was for what now??
And now your disgusting presense on an off trading day and almost 24/7 is only going to reassure the inexperienced newbie that we as shareholders will prevail.
As I have said,you are NO good and never have been a decent person..Your record is well known and I know you feel right at home in this swell of a sesspool..Your smell goes far back as 1999 and still lingers today..
There is NO way you could ever come around and redeem yourself,you are the worst of the worst..
Hi KP, yes TOMO... but also KONG looks good, if not better...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=KONG
KongZhong Corporation is a provider of advanced second-generation (2.5G) wireless interactive entertainment, media and community services. In addition, the Company has begun to provide wireless value-added services on the networks of China United Telecommunications Corporation (China Unicom), China Telecommunications Corporation (China Telecom) and China Network Communications Group Corporation (China Netcom). Each of China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom and China Netcom is a state-owned enterprise, the majority of the equity interest of which is owned by the People's Republic of China. KongZhong provides services throughout China. KongZhong's services are organized in three major categories, consisting of: Interactive entertainment, Media and Community services. In March 2004, the Company changed its name from Communication Over The Air Inc. to KongZhong Corporation
For the fiscal year ended 12/31/04, revenues totalled $48 million, up from $7.8 million. Net income totalled $20.4 million, up from $2.4 million. Results reflect rapid growth in China's 2.5G wireless value-added services market and the usage of the Company's services.
GM
Holding on to my Jan6 30P...
Lehman Bros. analyst Darren Kimball does not believe General Motors' (GM: news, chart, profile) or Ford Motor's (F: news, chart, profile) March auto sales will meet their respective forecasts. Kimball expects GM sales to decline 3 percent, while GM is projecting flat sales. For Ford Motor, Kimball is forecasting a sales decline of 5 percent vs. the company's estimate of a 3 to 4 percent decline. He believes any upside to his sales forecasts will be fleet driven.
Chinese gamer...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TOMO
Tom Online Inc. is an Internet company in China providing value-added multimedia products and services. The Company delivers its products and services from its Internet portal to its users through their mobile phones and through Tom's Websites. Its primary business activities include wireless value-added services, online advertising and commercial enterprise solutions. As of December 31, 2003, the Company had approximately 27 million cumulative registered users of its wireless data services, and, during 2003, sent an average of approximately seven million daily wireless data messages. Tom recorded an average of approximately 148 million daily Website page views during 2003. On November 19, 2003, the Company acquired from Cranwood its 100% interest in Puccini, which provides wireless interactive voice response (IVR) services through the Wu Ji Network.
For the fiscal year ended 12/31/04, revenues increased 59% to $122.7 million. Net income increased 73% to $33.9 million. Revenues reflect an increase in SMS subscriptions and SMS downloads due to increased marketing and promotional efforts. Net income reflects an increase in gross profit margin in advertising and commercial solutions and higher interest income.
Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month): 192,681
Average Volume (10 day): 130,000
Shares Outstanding: 47.50M
Float: 12.83M
% Held by Insiders: 73.00%
% Held by Institutions: 8.70%
Shares Short (as of 8-Feb-05): 1.49M
Daily Volume (as of 8-Feb-05): N/A
Short Ratio (as of 8-Feb-05): 5.507
Short % of Float (as of 8-Feb-05): 11.60%
Shares Short (prior month): 2.06M
Collapse, Death And Re-Birth In The Chinese Online Game Market
March 24, 2005
Posted by Frank Yu
Chinese online gaming seems for many investors a potential goldmine of ever increasing revenue and growth. Everyday we see news of some Chinese company making millions from their latest online game or perhaps buying up (or being bought up) by one of the emerging game companies.
The news and momentum of the game industry seems to be shouting growth while the greedy little imp whispers to investors to buy now and ride the tiger to IPO on Nasdaq. Chinese tech companies that have never made profit from productivity software now see red (the color of the 100 renminbi) from the profits of licensing or developing their own games in China.
Like Red chips, real estate companies, and internet portals before, Chinese Game companies seem to be the newest flavor to excite investors with the “if everyone in China played online games mantra”. Although it does seem that this industry in China is just starting and that the potential remains unrealized, the Video Game industry is actually quite mature in various parts of the world. What seems new is that the online games for many investors appear to be a bombproof revenue generator since it seems resistant to traditional CD-Rom piracy. Even as this market grows and new users sign on each day to more and more online games, the seeds of destruction have already been planted.
The Video Game industry is a little like evolution. Although the number of game players and the size of the market increase each year, there have been several mass extinctions of whole industry segments in the world of video games. One of the most notable meteors to cause one of the largest die-offs was the demise of Atari, Mattel Electronics, Coleco and even Commodore during the 1984 industry crash. Overnight, what seemed to be a growing new market crashed with truckloads of “ET: The Extraterrestrial” cartridges having to be dumped in landfills. However, as American console makers began to wither, the Japanese console makers like Nintendo, Sega and NEC began to flourish. It’s as if the American reptiles on land were now being replaced by Japanese mammalian game companies for dominance of the still growing industry.
As PCs began to become an alternative gaming platform to consoles, companies like Broderbund, Origin Systems and Infocomm rose to dominance to take advantage of the new markets. Years later these companies would be gone or bought out by larger companies such as Electronic Arts, THQ, and Activision as dominant players for videogames even as the markets got larger. Of the three major console makers today, only Nintendo is a medium age veteran. Sony and Microsoft are relative newcomers in this industry.
The lesson to take away from this short history flashback is that the Video and Online Game industry in China will continue to rise and proliferate even as some of the major online game companies in China will no doubt collapse, be bought out or quietly close their doors. The Honeymoon period of Chinese online gaming is almost over and a shakeup seems inevitable in the next few years as users, companies and the industry matures.
Risk: Currently, many of the more popular online games in China are licensed from Taiwan and Korea through local portals and game companies. As the drive to develop domestic production increases and foreign firms set up development shops in China, so does the risk and financial requirements for creating a full cycle game development operation from scratch. Two or Three dud or mediocre releases is all that it takes to shut a game company down. Licensing, although a more conservative approach for getting to market, will increasingly be discouraged by the powers that be to promote local development.
Game Lifecycles: All games will eventually become old and boring to some degree. What once excited you in the past seems pure repetition now. The challenge is gone and the sense of wonder in exploration and discovery is lost. The key is to make your game last long enough to recover your costs and keep subscribers playing until you can transition them to a newer version or your next big game release. Will it even work on the next version of Windows?
User Lifecycles: Users get old as well. When those students graduate and start families, they soon will need to budget not just their wallets but also their time to playing games. How can you ensure that your game will attract new users and get them hooked enough to keep coming back. Even hardcore male game players go through phases where they just grow tired of playing games and discover things like girls or sports instead. Perhaps the gamer will instead just play a different game and never come back to yours again.
Lower Quality knockoffs: As Chinese game companies become awash with cash investors, there is a lot of dumb money chasing a small tiny pool of competent game developers. This situation will attract shoddy game start-ups who will release me too clones or just plain terrible products to soak up the influx of private and government seed money. As the quality of games degrade, users will become disgusted and be turned off games in general which is what happened in the Atari Crash of 84.
Price Erosion: As more competitors enter the field chasing new users with low cost subscription and free play, the market pricing will erode. In desperation, failing companies will dump products, even at a loss, to recoup some of their investment from development and start-up cost of running servers, distributors and online help systems. For MMORGs to work, they require a certain critical mass of users to help defray the cost of monthly operation. If you can’t hit that bar early enough, you might as well close and stop the bleeding.
Cheating: The biggest threat to the online game industry is not piracy but cheating. Players can still enjoy playing a pirated game but an online game where other users cheat or undermine the experience of game play will see their user base run away as fast as their mice can click onto another of the many other games that are now launching or have launched in China. Game developers fear this threat more than anything else. However, with the increasing sophistication of users and hackers, cheating will become an ever increasing issue. For the worst case is not if a user just leaves a game, they may be so disillusioned by cheating that they will no longer opt to play online games at all.
Many of these issues have led to the cycle of death and rebirth in the game industries around the world. China’s market still needs to undergo that cycle of a thinning of the herd of weak and diseased companies to ensure that the quality and experience of the industry in general continues to increase. Yes, there is money to be made in China’s online game market in the future but the question is if any of the companies that can be invested in now will still be around to give you a return on your investment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
About the author:
Frank Yu is a Program Manager at Microsoft Research Asia's Advanced Technology Center. A Harvard graduate, Frank has worked in Hong Kong, Singapore and now Beijing for 8 years in the field of technology and banking. Views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not those of Microsoft Corporation. Frank can be contacted at capital@gmail.com.
Hmmm... a fax spam! Now thats someting rather unknown in these parts of the world,I must say.
Do you think thats productive? Maybe I should start one to promote some of the losers that I'm holding.
But serious...I know I used to get pretty irritated when I got a faxspam of some sort, but I must say that I have not seen one for a long time.
Looks like that way of promotion has stopped here.
Tempo
SPRL,Yes Tim, I'm still holding.
This is a solid co with a great businessplan that needs some more time.
I'm willing to wait.
Tempo
News...
March 22, 2005
TORONTO, Mar 22, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
Strat Petroleum, Ltd. (Other OTC:SPRL) today announced that preliminary review of the records of Saraktasch Oilgas Drilling Expedition Co., indicates the assets that will be available to the new joint venture for future drilling services are significant.
The Drilling Co.'s assets include the following:
a) 31 acres of land at US$40,500/acre = US$1.26 million;
b) 24 buildings at US$200,000 = US$4.8 million; and,
c) 6 Uralmash drilling units at US$1,500,000 = US$9.0 million.
Currently the Company drills between 18-20 wells a year at an average cost of $1 million per well.
Strat Petroleum's commitment is to grow the business by providing additional financing; investing in more advanced equipment for drilling and maintenance; and offering other services such as 2D and 3D seismic testing, computerized logging and detailing the fields, etc.
Strat has the opportunity to significantly increase revenues by bartering drilling services in exchange for crude oil at discounts to market. The oil may be exported to surrounding countries at world prices or refined into finished products which will generate even greater profit margins.
Strat Petroleum, Ltd.'s strategy is to enhance shareholder value through the acquisition of oil & gas properties with proven reserves or producing/capped wells. Should you wish any additional information on our projects or management team, please visit our website at www.stratpetroleum.com or contact our Investor Relations office. Due to the volume of interest we will make every effort to respond as promptly as possible.
Statements made in this press release regarding the Company's or management's intention, beliefs, expectations, or predictions for the future are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause the Company's actual results to differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements. These risks, assumptions and uncertainties include: the ability to compete effectively in a rapidly evolving and price competitive marketplace; uncertainties of completing business transactions; uncertainties of raising necessary capital; no control over long term pricing; possible reductions in demand for our products and services due to competition or changes in industry conditions or political environment; changes in the nature of energy regulation in the Russian Federation, the United States and other countries; political risk; currency exchange risk; changes in business strategy; the successful integration of newly-acquired businesses; the impact of technological change; reliance on management and management contacts; and other risks that may be referenced from time to time in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
SOURCE: Strat Petroleum, Ltd.
Strat Petroleum, Ltd. Kathy Bassi, 905-714-0058 www.stratpetroleum.com
WGM Jan6 30.0P up 85% ,
now bid $3.90, bought them at $1.55 on 12/02. Not selling.
Tempo
GM Shares Drop on Lower Profit Outlook
Wednesday March 16, 11:01 am ET
By John Porretto, AP Auto Writer
General Motors Shares Tumble After Co. Lowers Its Earnings Guidance on Weak N. American Sales
DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors Corp., the world's biggest automaker, slashed its earnings projections Wednesday for the first quarter and the full year, citing lower North American sales and production, an inability to raise prices and higher expenses for items such as health care. Its share price tumbled to its lowest level in more than a year in morning trading.
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GM said it expects a first-quarter loss of about $1.50 a share, compared with a previous target of break-even or better. It expects income of $1 to $2 per share for the full year, down from its previous guidance of $4 to $5. GM is scheduled to report first-quarter results Jan. 19.
Its shares tumbled $4.17, or 12.4 percent, to $29.55 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange, trading below its lowest closing level of $33.69 for the past 52 weeks.
The automaker, whose U.S. market share has dwindled in the face of gains by Asian rivals, said its finance arm, GMAC, as well as its other sales regions, were on track to meet 2005 income targets.
But production cuts in North America in the first and second quarters of this year, coupled with extremely competitive pricing, forced GM to sharply revise its earnings forecast. North America is the automaker's largest market.
"GM North America is, simply put, our 800-pound gorilla, and today's announcement really shows how important it is we get this business right," GM chairman and chief executive Rick Wagoner said in a conference call with Wall Street analysts and automotive journalists.
GM's profit fell 37 percent in the fourth quarter, and the automaker had said it expected a rough start this year.
Still, Wagoner acknowledged the company "obviously underran our share and sales targets" for January and February. GM's U.S. sales were off 6.2 percent in the first two months of 2005, contributing to already inflated inventories and prompting the production cuts.
GM's previous first-quarter guidance was based on North American production volumes of 1.5 million vehicles. Since then, production schedules have been cut by about 70,000 units.
The company also attributed the lowered guidance to a more competitive pricing environment and a more car-based vehicle mix. Much of GM's product focus in the past year or so has been on its car lineup, which generates lower profits than trucks and sport utility vehicles. As well, GM's truck lineup is in the last year of its product life cycle, and the company has had to increase incentives on many of the aging models to attract buyers.
GM last week announced a new round of incentives designed to move slow-selling vehicles off dealer lots.
John Devine, GM's chief financial officer, said the pricing environment means the company must seek ways to cut costs.
"While we've made good progress in reducing costs over the last several years, the projected loss in North America reinforces our need to do much more, particularly in the area of health care," he said.
GM said it was encouraged by the "building momentum" of some recently introduced vehicles, including the Chevrolet Equinox, Pontiac G6, Buick LaCrosse and Chevrolet Cobalt, and by the product launches scheduled for this year.
"Great cars and trucks are the key to success in this business and so remain our top priority," Wagoner said.
General Motors Corp.: http://www.gm.com
Tim,goodmorning to you!
"10 Reasons to Quit Trading the Stock Market"
I guess that would rule out about 90% of the "traders", don't you think so?
Tempo
Haha,LOL Tim.
Mach, congratulations!
See you at www.Machcobra.com.
Tempo
Maybe he's gonna wear a "Got CMKX ?" T-shirt! LOL
Drillbit, FYI...
not to start a discussion but...
Tempo
ATLANTA, Feb 24, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- The typical U.S. hotel achieved an estimated 13.3 percent increase in profits in 2004, and is projected to enjoy another 14.1 percent boost to the bottom-line in 2005, according to the 2005 P&L Forecast published by PKF Hospitality Research (PKF-HR). This improved profitability follows a three-year industry recession that saw unit-level hotel profits decline 36.2 percent from 2000 to 2003. Hotel profits are defined as income before deductions for capital reserve, rent, interest, income taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
The forecast is based on a preliminary analysis of U.S. hotel financial statements collected by PKF-HR for its 2005 annual Trends in the Hotel Industry survey, according to R. Mark Woodworth, executive managing director of Atlanta-based PKF-HR. The analysis considered all hotel property types throughout the nation and incorporates the results of the PKF/Torto Wheaton Research (TWR) Winter 2005 Hotel Outlook forecast.
The turnaround in profitability starts with strong increases in hotel revenues. PKF-HR estimates that total hotel revenues grew 7.3 percent in 2004 and will increase another 7.0 percent in 2005. "Leisure, business, and convention travelers began to hit the road again during the second half of 2003 and continued into 2004," notes Woodworth. "With hotel occupancy rates approaching pre-recession levels, hotel managers have been able to get more aggressive with their pricing strategies. In 2004, the hotels in our Trends sample are estimated to have increased their room rates by a healthy 3.7 percent. Look for an additional 5.3 percent jump in 2005." Separate research conducted by PKF-HR has found that hotels are most profitable when they are able to drive their revenue by increasing room rates.
All Hotels Benefit
The recovery in hotel revenues and profits appears to be occurring across all types of hotels. All five property types tracked by PKF-HR are projected to experience double-digit increases in profits in 2005.
Pros See More Life in Bull Market
By AP, Investing-News.Com
Feb 20, 2005, 01:11
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NEW YORK_Any investors who read their January financial statements might be feeling a little too shell-shocked to go back into the market. Put your trepidation aside, professional investors say, because there are plenty of reasons to be buying.
While stocks have recovered somewhat from their poor performance last month, the Standard & Poor's 500 remains stubbornly negative for the year, leaving investors with little motivation to buy. And while money is making its way back into stocks--TrimTabs Investment Research estimates $7.5 billion has flowed into domestic equity funds since Jan. 27, compared to outflows up to that point--the lack of enthusiasm for equities is palpable.
Amid the gloom that's hanging over the market, however, a quiet bullishness prevails among professional investors, who point to a robust economy, relatively low interest rates, tame inflation, strong corporate profits and positive earnings growth.
In a quarterly letter sent to shareholders earlier this month, Bill Miller, portfolio manager of the highly regarded Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) said he's quite optimistic about 2005. After a 29 percent increase in the S&P 500 in 2003 and an almost 11 percent increase in 2004, companies are still setting records in terms of profits, cash flow, returns on equity and levels of cash as a percentage of assets, Miller said, yet skepticism reigns.
"I have seen investors more bearish than they are now, but I have never seen more angst amidst such opportunity as there is today," Miller wrote. "Valuations are not demanding, especially in a world of low inflation and low nominal interest rates. Mergers and acquisitions should boom this year, providing windfalls for the shareholders of takeover targets."
Moreover, Miller said, "I would expect corporate share buybacks to accelerate and dividend growth to remain strong. High returns on equity and low nominal growth means lots of excess cash is available to be used for shareholders' benefit."
Failing to take advantage of such opportunities because of a sense of foreboding or a fear of loss would be a great mistake, argues Miller, a widely respected value investor who has earned a reputation for his market savvy _ he's outperformed the S&P 500 for 14 straight years, a feat unmatched by any other mutual fund manager. But he's far from alone in his belief that opportunities abound in equities.
"The bull market is in its fourth year, but it can go on a lot longer. The trends and the economy and the market are still positive," said Alfred E. Goldman, chief market strategist with A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis, who is forecasting returns of up to 8 percent this year. "And there are a lot of bears around. That's bullish. The reason investors should think about being a buyer is that the economy remains healthy."
Yet the market remains persistently glum. Many investors remain fixated on January's dismal performance, and some are still distracted by the January barometer, which suggests the first month foreshadows trading for the rest of the year. Goldman, noting that a down January has predicted a down year precisely half the time since 1970, considers the barometer a hoax, and blames the market's recent lull on the dramatic rally that began in October. "We were cruising for a bruising and we got one," he said.
Of course, it's harder to make money in a more mature bull market. It's more challenging for companies to increase their earnings. Larger, higher-quality stocks, particularly defensive growth stocks with steady revenues, such as consumer products companies, pharmaceuticals and food stocks, may be better positioned than small-caps and riskier issues. Dividends are attractive. And when every percentage point of total return counts, buying low becomes more important than ever. Down days present buying opportunities.
"The best time to buy stocks is when you're most uncomfortable buying stocks," Goldman said. "The worst time to buy them is when it's easy to buy them, emotionally."
Regrettably, small investors rarely buy the right stocks at the right time, a painful point driven home by recent fund flow data. Flows have been weak so far this year, and during January, the only money going into stocks was going overseas. Only in the last several weeks has more money been coming into U.S. equity funds than global funds, said Charles Biderman, president of TrimTabs.
"Here's the truth ... whenever the percentage of new money going into global funds is very high, it's typically right after the dollar has made a new low," Biderman said. "They miss it. They always start to buy global funds after the dollar has started to turn up. The truth about individuals is flow follows performance. When flows become big, for whatever reason, it's usually a turning point. Flows are typically a lagging indicator to the market and a contrary indicator at extremes."
Meanwhile, almost no money has gone into tech funds, a sector that has fallen far out of favor; the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index has slumped 5.4 percent, year-to-date. For Biderman, who remains confident about the economy, this was an opportunity too good to resist. He recently bought shares of the Nasdaq 100 Trust exchange-traded fund (QQQQ) for a portfolio he keeps for his children.
"The time to really invest is when everyone seems nervous. If you're a long-term player and you're investing a portion of your money in the market every month, just buy a cheap index fund and forget about it." Biderman said. "The biggest mistake people make is when they stop investing during bad times, because they miss the benefits. That's how dollar-cost-averaging works. It's harder to buy when everybody is worried, but it's worth it."
Check out the stock mentioned in this article NVR!
Tempo
Rampant Insider Selling Raises Red Flags
By Rachel Beck, AP Consumer News, Investing-News.Com
Dec 15, 2004, 12:49
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NEW YORK--Talk about a double standard. While corporate leaders tout the benefits of investors owning their stocks, many executives seem to be running for the doors themselves.
Selling of shares by insiders--which includes executives and other top officers and directors at a company--has been rampant in recent months, with sales rising to their highest level in more than four years in November.
While no one can pinpoint an exact reason for that run-up, the implication is troubling since big insider selling is often considered bearish for the overall market as well as for individual stocks.
Of course, not all insider selling should be construed as a bad sign. Some stock sales may just be routine or may be executives wanting to free up money to cover personal expenses or to help pay the taxes on shares they buy after exercising options. And in some sectors, namely technology, stock compensation is often the bulk of executive pay, so they sell their stock for income.
In addition, November has historically been a busy time for insider selling. That's because it comes after most companies have reported their third-quarter earnings and restrictions for selling have been lifted. In addition, some executives sell in November for tax purposes.
Still, insider-trading trackers at Thomson Financial say the recent selling bonanza is particularly noteworthy.
Some $6.6 billion in insider stock sales took place last month, the highest level since the $7.7 billion in sales tallied in August 2000, according to Thomson. Contrast that with the $144 million worth of stock that was bought by insiders last month.
The most selling came from in the financial sector, where executives sold $882 million of their own stock in November, and health care companies, whose insiders sold $734 million worth of shares. Selling in both sectors was double the five-year monthly average, according to Thomson.
On a company-specific basis, consider what has gone on at networking company Avocent Corp., where company statements seem to contradict insiders' actions. On Nov. 1, the company announced a buyback plan for up to two million shares and said in a news released that the purchase of the stock represents a solid investment for our shareholders.
Apparently, the company's insiders seemed to have ignored that memo. In the month following the announcement, they sold 578,565 shares out of an aggregate of 645,756 insider shares sold during the last 12 months, according to Vickers Weekly Insider, a newsletter that tracks trading by company executives.
There was no buying during that time period.
To be fair, much of the selling came as executives exercised their stock options, not surprising given that its shares have climbed 30 percent in the last two months reaching their highest level since last winter. In addition, the company's officers were blocked from making stock transactions from December 2003 through April of this year because of Avocent's acquisition of OSA Technologies Inc., according to vice president and chief accounting officer Edward Blankenship.
Yet, as Vickers editor David Coleman points out: If they thought the stock would continue to climb, wouldn't it be in their interest to hold on to it rather than immediately get out?
Looking beyond companies where executives say one thing but do something else, Coleman points to other warning signs that investors should use to gauge potentially negative signs associated with insider selling. He suggests looking out for insiders who have sold their stock at times that don't coincide with when they exercise options, or those who sell above and beyond the amount that they have exercised.
Sometimes, though, investors refuse to heed such warnings.
Take, for instance, the surge in shares of homebuilder NVR Inc., which has seen its stock jump from just over $432 a share at the start of the year to now trade about $730 apiece. That rise has come despite expectations for a slowdown in the housing market as interest rates begin to climb.
Also troublesome with that giant stock run-up is that NVR's insiders have been bailing out of the stock big time. They have sold more than $220 million in shares this year alone.
Among those selling: NVR [NVR] CEO Dwight Schar, who hasn't purchased any stock since June 2002, only exercised just over 83,000 shares this year and has sold about 265,000 shares at a market value of about $155 million, according to Thomson. The company declined to comment on its insider selling, said NVR [NVR] spokesman Dan Malzahn.
At least so far, NVR's investors have ignored the insiders' moves, and haven't been hurt by that decision. Whether that luck continues will surely be tested in the months ahead.
OT; Steaks
did you looked at SPRL lately?
We talked about it, remember?
Take care.
Tempo
Tim, I've copied it but without the graphs...
BTW, I had to try to open the link myself for about 5 times before it did.
Tempo
The Mystique of "5"
By CBS Marketwatch, Investing-News.Com
Dec 23, 2004, 00:01
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SANTA ROSA, Calif. (SMC) -- We believe investors are about to be bombarded with good news about the prospects for the stock market in 2005.
Indeed, a review of stock market performance since the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJX] in 1897 reveals some startling and very optimistic statistics relating to the fifth year within every decade.
There has never been a down year in a year ending in "5."
That, however, is only part of the story. Here are the results for the Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJX] from the close on the last trading day of the year ending in "4" within each decade to the high close of the following year:
The climb of the Dow over each year ending in " 5 "
In other words, if we assume the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes the year 2004 around its current level of 10,690, an average "5" year would produce a close of 14,804 sometime during 2005.
There is another fascinating statistic relating to the year ending in "5" within each decade. Virtually every one of these "5" years has registered its low for the year or within just a few percent of its low for the year in the month of January. Here are the statistics:
Each "5" year ended within a few % of Jan. close
On average, the low for the year within the "5" year occurred around Jan. 22, from which point the market never looked back.
These are spectacular statistics which seem to be preparing us for a stock market year that will make everyone (but the Bears) happy.
But let's take a moment to play devil's advocate.
We started by saying that we felt investors would soon be bombarded with the type of news and statistics we've just presented to you. There's no denying that history has smiled upon the "5" year of each decade for the past century or longer, but therein lies part of the problem for the year 2005.
What everyone knows in the stock market is usually not worth knowing. Stockmarket Cycles began publicizing the mystique of the "5" year 20 years ago when very few people were aware of the phenomenon. In 1994, awareness was increased. As we approach 2005, we believe the publicity concerning the phenomenon will increase dramatically.
At the end of 1974, 1984, and 1994, adviser sentiment had been bearish for a significant percentage of the calendar year. Unfortunately, we are facing an almost exactly opposite sentiment picture that stands ready to be fuelled to even greater heights of bullishness by siren promises of another great "5" year.
By the end of 1974, there had been 42 weeks in that calendar year when the Investors Intelligence (investorsintelligence.com) survey of investment advisers showed a plurality of bears over bulls. At the end of 1984, there had been 20 weeks showing a plurality of bears over bulls. At the end of 1994, the sentiment statistics had been so amazingly one-sided that there had been 47 weeks with a bearish plurality. It was a perfect set up for a spectacular 1995.
Now we approach the end of the year 2004. What is the current sentiment picture? There was not a single week within the year that showed a plurality of bears over bulls. In fact, the plurality of bulls over bears remained so steadfast throughout the year that the smallest plurality was 9 percent.
What makes that all the more remarkable is that it was preceded by the same statistics throughout the year 2003 -- not a single week with a plurality of bears. There has been a mindset of steadfast bullishness for well over two years. The average plurality of weekly bulls over bears since March 2003 has been a staggering 31.4 percent.
To put these data in perspective, there have been only seven full calendar years in the history of Investors Intelligence data (since March 1964) where bullishness has been so great they have escaped without seeing even one week with a plurality of bears over bulls -- and only one other consecutive two-year pairing such as we are seeing in 2003-2004. The other consecutive year pairing occurred in 1999-2000. The other years were 1972, 1976, and 1983.
Here comes the killer statistic!
So far, each and every year that has failed to see even one weekly reading with a plurality of bears has been followed by a negative year. As we write this, the jury is still out for the year 2004. The Dow closed out 2003 with a reading of 10,453.92.
What is perhaps even more troubling is that the only other instance of consecutive years without a plurality of bears over bulls, 1999-2000, was followed by a decline of 41.8 percent by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index [SPX] and 33.2 percent on the Dow Jones Industrial Average [DJX].
Based on these data and other sentiment data, and on the market's current valuation, we believe the odds favor a breaking of the win streak for the "5" year and we fear the market faces great vulnerability over at least the next 12 to 18 months.
Here are a few clues to watch for in the coming year:
We noted earlier that the "5" year within each decade has almost always registered its low for the year in January. Amazingly enough, the high for the year following years without one weekly plurality of bears over bulls has been registered within the first 10 trading days of January in four of the previous six cases, and before February 12 in five of the six cases.
We should have a strong indication of a bull or a bear year for 2005 by the end of February. If February registers a high above January, the odds favor an up year overall. Conversely, if February makes a lower high than January, the odds would favor a down year overall -- perhaps a big down year.
We will watch February with great interest.
Very interesting stats...
http://www.investing-news.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi?archive=2&num=167
TFN, so true.eom
Tempo
An old (02/2003) pick of mine STLD
did great.
Picked at $13.39, now at 39.66.
Man, why can't I just stick to my picks,LOL?
Tempo
From ZeroEmotion.com...
The most important thing a trader can do is evaluate risk. In fact, using a stop loss order to admit defeat is extremely necessary to survive in this business. If delusional, these stop loss orders can become roughly 10% of an account's equity and are usually only mental stops; however, real trading involves active participation in controlling such risk while protecting capital. Traders are in the business of dealing with risk, and 2005 has not been easy for those who take strong opinions and stubborn to admit defeat. Friday was a perfect example, with most indexes perilously close to breaking down but only a small move upward would nullify this bearishness (QQQQ's and 37.35, for example). Only a few cents away from Thursday's close, but this proverbial line-in-the-sand was needed to be drawn. Fortunately, the QQQQ's did pullback into our noted BUY set-up level and allowed for a good trading session; nonetheless, we need to have these lines in for every single session and be ready for anything. Odds are trading will not get any easier. Without a plan heading into Monday's opening bell, we can almost guarantee Monday will be filled with emotions and plenty of hindsight trades. Let's begin. The Dow closed under 10800 and will have some tough resistance on Monday at 10850 to 10863. The better plan is to look for the overall markets to soften up (Dow 10694 for Swing Traders) and then accumulate some long positions. A move higher early on Monday will most likely be sold. The S&P 500, on the other hand, has tough resistance just above at 1211 and look for a short trade only on the first test of this level; moreover, a pullback into 1195 should provide a reason to get long if this broad-based index finds support (IF 1195 trades, go long at 1196.50). The QQQQ's, on the other hand, is once again looking at resistance at 38.06 while support is below at 37.05 but most likely out of range for the first trading day of the week.
Looking below at our trade set-up for shares of Intel (INTC), a trader new to using our ZeroEmotion Trading System should ask themselves a few questions: Is there an imbalance in the Bullish/Bearish Indicator. Yes, with bulls clearly controlling the landscape. Therefore, the BUY set-up warrants a greater position size. Also, with INTC closing at 24.17, let's find the Swing Trade Yellow Bars? 25.23 starts the higher yellow bars, while 22.74 is key below. Swing Traders should use those levels to take positions; selling the former and buying the latter. The next question, Where is INTC in relation to the Blue bars? Shares are higher than the blue areas; therefore, until shares fall below 23.46 it makes sense to be "aggressively" bullish. Notice that the "IF" level in our BUY set-up is at this 23.46 level. Note: We have gotten many favorable responses since turning our Trading System onto a monthly membership subscription and lowering our cost for a limited time. We can almost guarantee this will be our lowest offering, so please see our newly updated rates page for the new rates: http://www.zeroemotion.com/newmembers/rates.asp.
Thx Tim, I'm going to keep it on my radar...
Not buying yet.
Tempo
PLCM
Thinking of purchasing some...
Average Volume (3 month): 945,500
Average Volume (10 day): 2,433,000
Shares Outstanding: 98.01M
Float: 97.90M
% Held by Insiders: 0.11%
% Held by Institutions: 93.40%
Shares Short (as of 10-Jan-05): 2.09M
Daily Volume (as of 10-Jan-05): N/A
Short Ratio (as of 10-Jan-05): 1.815
Short % of Float (as of 10-Jan-05): 2.14%
Shares Short (prior month): 2.61M
For the fiscal year ended 12/31/04, revenues rose 29% to $540.3M. Net income from continuing operations rose 51% to $34.6 million. Revenues reflect increased sales of video and voice communication products. Net income reflects decreased restructuring costs and improved gross margins.
Polycom, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets and supports a line of communications equipment that enables enterprise users to effectively conduct video, voice, data and Web communications. The Company's business operates in two segments, Communications, which is comprised of video and voice communication products, and Network Systems, which supplies products and services that provide a range of video, voice, data and Web communication capabilities. Polycom's enterprise video and voice communications products enable businesses and other organizations to easily communicate with employees, customers and partners, regardless of location. Its network infrastructure and management products include bridges, network management software and call processing servers that enable communications across and between different types of networks and end-points. These products are unified under the Polycom Accelerated Communications Architecture.
Before going long,I always scan the msgboard for the "stong sell" rec's. Bashers are always right,as we know,lol.
So I came up with this post, which is not a bash but points out a very negative item; the "option abuse"...here it is;
I came across PCLM as a potential value investment in the tech-telecom world, but also possesing good growth posssibilities: good balance sheet, low debt, profitable, and great prospects. But I made my customary stop at the bottom of the company's last 10k filed with the SEC. (I see others on this board are concerned about PCLM's stock options but I'll add my opinion from my brief look -- for what it's worth.)
Unfortunately Polycom is another of those companies which “abuses” the use of stock options to the extent that outside shareholders cannot, as a whole, ever profit. PCLM annually grants options equal to 5% of outstanding stock -- outrageous (by a factor of 3 or 4 or 5). This is on top of other retirement programs, 401K plans with some matching company contributions, and a stock purchase plan that enables employees to buy stock 15% and more below market price. Then, when PCLM stock price drops far below options exercise prices, existing options are exchanged for others at lower exercise prices: the ultimate slap in the face of outside shareholders. Companies like PCLM claim that options aren’t true expenses - - that’s nonsense. PCLM pays no dividends; all “profits” are used to buy back stock but the share count doesn’t drop; employees are issued options with values that consume PCLM’s “profits” -- nothing of value accrues to outside shareholders. If options were “expensed” PCLM’s income statement would reflect the truth that profits are minimal -- or less. PCLM needs to show some concern for outside shareholders or convert itself into a private company (which in-effect it currently is).
PCLM probably has good prospects - but it looks as if outsiders can't join the fun.
So, a Q for the FA specialists; what do you think of this???
TIA
Tempo
Nobody could get out at 0.0011.
I sold some at 0.0008 and was lucky to do so,I posted the sale here, btw.
Still holding the rest,LOL.
Good luck
Tempo.
No way I will tell them...
unless it runs 1000% LOL.
Good luck
Tempo
CG, you here too,LOL!!
Good luck.
Tempo
Oldpro, congrats on CTDH
bid 0.08 ask 0.082
Tempo
I know the problem; its hard to spot a normal email between the Viagra,porn and Rolex spam LOL.
Tempo
Tim I see you didn't post this weeks Chartspeak.
I will do it for you because I think it is really worth reading.
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/chartspeak/ChartSpeak_013005.pdf
Tempo
Nice story of which there are hundreds out there.
Kinda reminds me of GLBC,LOL
No spam imo.
No irritating spam anyway.
Tempo