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market is vulnerable to severe sell off...prudents ones need to stay away from long positions..gutsy ones shall press their shorts...
it will be a doozy of a sell off...
10 yr treasury is signalling all alert..heed it//
in 2-3 yrs, 10 yr yield can be below 2...yes//
what about QE?? Till dollar get devalued against china etc, the issue is moot//
Bear is getting ready..Fed is, for some time, out of the way.. It is time for asset RESET//
this market can sell off huge in the next 1-2 months..this is a high probability outcome...
SPX can revisit 800-900 area and pretty quickly..
bull says: if bernanke is not sure, refer to his 2002 speech..
QE II..no brainer..T bonds sky high...dollar strong..
what's he gonna lose..(savers ire? har har)
without dollar devaluation, it will be all doom...
Devalue US dollar and save US economy..
This is Uranus in action....
when in doubt, use extraneous, celestial reasoning...astrology always comes in handy for charlatans,quacks & wannabes...
H&S works 50/50...so doesn't mean it doesn't work all the time..if so, would be easiest to fade..
aapl could sell off to ~200// not recommended to short as it is still a cult stock
not so fast...still has room to go
expect market to pause..XLF~15 major resistance..DoW/NASDAQ@200 SMA.. 5/8 retrace of the last swing and pychological 1100 SPX
Bull case scenario: pulls back to 1080 near 20 DMA and then another wave up...Then most likely low for the year is in..
Bear case: SMA rebuff prices and market sells off fiercely below 1000 or double bottom//
Market can also crash given its unstable nature w/ wild swings & highest correlation since 87 crash...
play safe and play small
3rd wave is starting..normally larger than wave 1..so SPX should reach near 2000 at the wend of wave 3..
up up up & away....
today marked the definitive onset of bear market..
10 yr treasury is eying 2.4%//
A crash is not out of the question..crash means cascade down like oct 08//
at first such RSI wkly low limit for bull was intriguing so i checked my charts..
1998 RSI 14 wkly dipped much below 40
1994 RSI 14 wkly dipped much below 40
so below 40 is a warning sign..but it can recover...
crash??
is that a typo, bliss??
bliss bull agreed..
it is rally time now..
double bottom and a hammer w/ increased volume..
blissbull optimism is just amazing..but has it overstayed its welcome??
elliot wave theory: just like most TAs looks perfect only in hindsight..loose & accommodative rules can be tweaked either way...hence one can be bullish/bearish/sideways at any point...
if you just see the chart and forget all the bad macro news, a rally from here is a high probabilty..what a beauty of a hammer..
Emerging marke blow up is a distinct possibility..It had a 10 yr boom..now every wall street pimp is hawking it ..that means play defense on emerging (brics and all) if not short the sucker..
a 5th bullish wave is quite a possibility and bears should the market rather than fundamental bad macro news
i been watching this stock..and it could be a nice long term play..nice earning growth..what do you say..
bears are so sodomized, no one is talking about double top or monthly resistance from 2007 TOP...could SPX reach 1200 by year end? quite possible..OIL would shoot above $100..euro 1.60 +
And then armageddon follows?
what is your target for the next low, bliss?
PT, i agree. Those indices are much much weaker that in last 4 rebounds where they all chugged together higher..bullish case would have another retrace and then xmas rally..
OTOH, this could go down w/ H&S formation as well..
love your sunny optimism :))
hey bliss, if SPX drops below 1020 would you change that into bear wave 1 ( a la prechter)..just asking
hmmmm..this will soon be known if we are in primary wave 2 (bear rally) or bull rally going to wave 5 as you assume..don't know why, meseems the rally may be over in few weeks..
jessy livermore claimed to have one..it is a sixth sense.. some have it, most don;t..Not saying yours is valid one.
while it is premature to call it a top..it is likely to be at least short term top...will see how the index reacts at 20/50 SMA ...if falls below ES1020, this could be it.
if the market takes out high this next week, expect a huge blow off top to 1125-1150 or so in a jiffy...then a cascade.
UNG again knockin on a nice upside here
market has topped (or another + 2-3%)..if someone really wants to be long, UNG is the way to go..easy money
BUY recommendation issued: UNG
Easy money here folks
well i will still be cautious about sshorting in a big way...wait for more signals
OIL seems to have definitively broken the VTL from march low. If stock market sells off another 2 days, an end of the bear rally is here
it surely looks promising..we need few (>3) days of sell0ff to confirm..
Fed says deflation entrenched. Apparently INFLATED stock market is getting memo just now..
USO could be breaking a long trendlind from mar (wait for close)..if so could flag the end of stock rally here
nice chart..one of the amazing thing is FED's liquidity got traction so quickly and risk appetite came back so quickly as well...
but i feel the pain has been postponed and linger for yrs..
market should sell off ~2%, 2 days in a row before one should start shorting the market..there is no reason to throw dart looking for some kinda top..
right now the startegy is to buy dips in stages (DCA)
i am looking at UPRO to keep buying on the dip intra day as a way to sooth my portfolio...
MELT UP phase ahead..shorts get out..SPX could shoot to 1200 here
being long is easier as every effort is made for assets to gain value esp now. Being short , you have to be convinced that fed efforts will fail. I was hoping for a good retrace and market doesn't seem to provide that even..It is just an amazing market.
If another breakout, i will have to cover and swallow my losses and move on. Good thing i play w/ only 10% of my capital.