Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
"...I wouldn't buy the stock..."
Johnbits- I understand, up to you of course, but: not at a dime? A nickel? A penny? Hard for me to believe.
I think that you yourself agreed with the assertion that LFB values the stock at 0.31 PPS. If one could buy (or average down) to that point, at least they could sleep at night. Perhaps Vin or others have the powder to do that.
OT: If you don't mind me asking, what are you in long?
"I am considering doing something very stupid by rolling the dice and buying more shares"
Vin- I've had some terrible "averaging down" experiences, but also some good ones. 50/50 shot. However, if I had any more dry powder (which I don't) that's exactly what I'd do. Anywhere around 0.10.
"... a response from GTCB about why they haven't instituted any real measures to cut costs?"
Vin-
It's getting harder to keep track of who said what in this debacle, but I thought it was you who got this response from Tom Newberry about the cost-cutting question?
... we are a commercial production operation under
regulatory review. Cost cutting that would be meaningful would lead to
gutting the very infrastructure which is required for product approval
and support for the partnered programs that are bringing in revenue.
Your thoughts on symbolic reductions of senior management base salaries
has not been considered since it may lead to a loss of the talent and
capabilities that we are depending on to reach our strategic goals.
I believe that you had in mind management reductions way past the merely "symbolic", but truthfully, the "gutting the infrastructure" stuff does ring true.
Unfortunately, at this point in things, it's not the infrastructure that I'd like to gut!
Vin-
I have not voted yet, will probably just wait until the last day.
I still have a strong feeling that small retail investors like us have no real part in the decision, it's a fait accompli. We flatter ourselves to think otherwise.
I certainly comprehend the line of reasoning that's saying if the proposals are voted down, then GTC would have to offer itself on the open market which would lead to spirited bidding. It's the "spirited bidding" part that is puzzling me: by who? At what numbers? ("The bid is 0.4, do I hear 0.5? 0.4 going once,going...")
At 0.11 PPS, 0.31 by LFB or anyone actually sounds good!
What a friggin' disappointing mess!
"I suspect his departure may cause many of us into selling our remaining shares and moving on..."
Oh, I thought we were all pretending that that might not be the case.
Please see my previous post to Nivasvs, especially point #2: I have so little equity left in this position that it hardly seems worth it to sell at 0.11, might as well stick around for the rest of the ride.
On the other hand, somethng is always better than nothing.
"At this point, I don't see any value left for my shares (already lost 90% of investment in GTCB) if I want to sell. I will wait until Dr.Cox folds the tent and moves to greener pastures."
Nivasvs: I'm not sure if I am reading your post correctly.
1. Are you saying that there's no point in selling now for the relative pittance you would get at 0.11 PPS? If so, that's also how I'm feeling at this point.
2. Are you saying that you expect Dr. Cox to leave, voluntarily or otherwise, and plan on holding until then?
FWIW: I'm near your numbers, 84% loss. And that's from what was, for me at least, a very serious amount of money.
"wall street, lies and more lies compounded by BS."
C'mon, man, I'm losing my shirt here; at least let me cling to my poor, pitiful dreams as I go under for the last time!
"The miserable have no other medicine but hope." -Nietzsche
I realize that Cox's purchase has been pretty much ridiculed here, but still:
"Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise." -Peter Lynch
I think we can raise the level of communication and trust / respect amongst posters, if we avoid (if @ all possible) adding hooks to our logic that could be construed as personal attacks.
Bravo. Exactly.
Most importantly, all that nonsense just gets in the way! It's hard enough sorting out the facts, the relative truth from the outright spin; all this personal animosity merely adds another layer of annoying fog that one has to navigate.
Isn't there a board on this fabulous, multifaceted site dedicated solely to personal insults? There should be. No holds barred, both posters could go there and hurl crap at each other to their heart's content.
OT: But this is not the point that PGS was making in #msg-33757407; rather, his point was that having 5% of the populace owning net assets of $1M+ was “unsustainable.”
Without doing exhaustive research into economic statistics, my gut tells me that yes, you're correct, in any normal, healthy society we would find at least 5% of the populace having that level of proportionate wealth.
And at least 5% would be dumpster diving.
I think that somehow the discussion got sidetracked into home "prices" (that word itself could engender a week's worth of digressions!)
Isn't all this coming out of Obama's misquoted and therefore misunderstood ten-year-old assertion that the Civil Rights Movement of the 60's did not go far enough in the direction of the "redistribution" of our society's wealth?
Speaking as just an average middle-class person: yes, 1 mil is a lot of money!
According to the National Association of Realtors (an organization I belong to) the national median home price is $205,000. I often work with people whose dream is to own a home worth that much.
Also, as I'm sure you know, it's not the sale price that factors into your net worth, it's the equity. Especially considering what the mortgage scene has been like in the past 20 years, one could own a million dollar home and have zero equity!
To repeat: To the vast, vast majority of Americans, of course 1 mil is a lot of money.
Isotope & Dew: By your humorously cynical answers to my still-nagging perlexion at Cox's "in some style" phrase, you obviously feel it's not worth your time to seriously speculate. I understand.
It bugs me! Either he was outright lying (and I expect one of Dew's crisp answers, "He was.") or there's still a totally unexpected POSITIVE shoe going to be dropped.
I don't know, I'm just disgusted with this whole disastrous mess. At this point I'm struggling to make a logical decision based on the relatively tiny slice of solid info available to small retail investors (I'm not even going to get started on my rant about Wall Street/disclosure/transparency!) All thoughts of profit have vanished, I'm in my "damage control" mode: how much of my money can I get back!
OT... where were you on 22 Nov 1963?
I was in Mrs. Silverman's 11th grade English class in Long Beach, New York. She was a very straitlaced, old-fashioned, disciplined lady. The door opened, the principal came in, and the two of them had a whispered conversation at the front of the room. Suddenly, Mrs. Silverman began to cry. I remember thinking, "This must be something serious."
Flo-
I think that someone already posted about this, but I can't find it:
Numerically speaking, does it really matter how all the small, retail investors vote?
Do you have the actual numbers on this? TIA
Dew- A very minor, at this point totally inconsequential item still bothers me:
Dr. Cox saying that they were going to come through this "in some style." At the time it also must have impressed you, didn't you have that quote at the top of the page?
IYO, what the hell was he talking about?
OT: Dude, you are making me laugh and expressing a legitimate POV. Seriously, you are too much, keep at it!
ARTE off 78% to 0.12.
Last year I sold a house to one of their reps. I emailed her asking how she was doing, just got this reply:
"I am officially without a job. Trying to figure out my next move. May actually need you to list my beautiful place as there are no openings in Ohio in my industry as you can imagine. I am exploring some opportunities in Florida and California right now. I will keep you posted. If you hear of anything in the area regardless of what it is, let me know! Thanks for checking in."
Times are tough!
" Would you take say $1.50 now or
would you rather keep your diluted shares
for say ten more years."
That, my friend, is a false dichotomy if I've ever heard one. I for one only wish that that was the real choice, because I'd take the buck-fifty and be on my merry way.
If the proposals are voted down and it becomes necessary to sell the company then the shareholders are going to swallow a huge discount to what is/what they perceive to be GTC's fundamental value. IMO, that discount will be much less than $1.50 PPS!
I had already read the article, it has been posted on quite a few boards.
Some selected quotes:
“Most people would probably say there have been too many biotechnology companies that have been like the walking dead”
“For the first time in the history of the biotech industry, you’re going to see unprecedented levels of bankruptcies and dissolutions”
"A Darwinian pruning of the weakest companies is inevitable"
"The sign over Wall Street for small biotechs is ‘closed for the season' "
"Other biotechnology companies, unable or unwilling to find a partner, will go into hibernation, just doing enough to keep the technology alive and waiting for a better day”
"Only the most facile traders should be on the playing field."
I assume he meant "agile."
I'm sure that I will be soundly criticized for this type of "non-independent" thinking, but here goes:
It's a very complicated issue. I think that both sides have laid out solid, rational arguments. Akone, I was very impressed with your post. Thurly, yes indeed, there is a lot of anger here! (I'm kind of angry!) But if we can avoid turning on each other, name-calling, personal attacks, and just examine the issue we'll all be better off. So far we're doing fine, we're sticking to the point.
OK, here's what I was talking about in my opening sentence, I might as well admit it: I have one hell of a hard time disagreeing with Dew when it comes to this company! (There, I said it, heap your scorn upon me. )
I'm just a humble real estate broker and investor; I've read a few things he's written about that field that IMO were just flat wrong, but he doesn't work day after day at street level in that business. I'm a believer in experts, I like experts, like most of us I employ them all the time and follow their advice. For me to argue with Dew about Biotech in general and GTC in specific strikes me as absurd.
I have to believe that if his current position is to vote "no" thereby causing a sale of the company, there must be something very substantial to it.
OT: Hard to believe that as of this morning a share of IDMI is selling for more than a share of GM, but it is what it is.
Preposterously OT: Very funny disclaimer from poster on the NTMD board:
"DISCLAIMER: I am a dirty, rotten penny investor. I am not compensated by any stock. I've asked them to pay me, they refuse. I buy stock on the open market. I sell it there. I like money. I am greedy. I am under the care of a psychiatrist."
OT: I promised that I would only do one of these a week, but I can't resist, forgive me this once!
This whole thing is upsetting, but try and have a good weekend all, keep your sense of humor.
Dew,as always I appreciate all your work here.
You've pretty much laid out your take on the latest development, including your intention to hold for now. I'm wondering if you have any additional insights into the whole mess...uh, I mean "situation."
FWIW: I'm holding for now, but not because of any great belief in the company. I'm just gagging on the thought of taking such a hit, and wondering why in the world with this one I abandoned my usual practice of cutting my loss at 10%. I'm pleading temporary insanity: that's my story and I'm sticking with it!
Sorry to butt in,I read your board occasionally, very interesting and civil.
I have to strongly disagree with the "near bottom" sentiment, and strongly agree with this article from today's Forbes:
"The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since World War II, much worse and longer and deeper than even the 1974-1975 and 1980-1982 recessions."
http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/11/12/recession-global-economy-oped-cx_nr_1113roubini.html
Vin,Newberry's message,if you can?EOM
Well sure, but for a minute it certainly sounded good!
Nothing is easier than self-deceit. For what each man wishes, that he also believes to be true. -Demosthenes
"At 25 cents, GTC has reached my downside target and I think it is a buy."
I could not agree with you more.
By any chance, would you or anyone you know be willing to give me just what I paid (see how generous I'm being, I don't even need to make any money!) for a large amount of barely used, like-new, very clean GTC shares?
That would free-up some cash to buy those 25 cent shares.
Gym- I have to admit that normally I pay no attention to pre-market. I'll assume that you're not being facetious when you refer to the volume as "smokin'" and that it is much higher than normal.
Some posters seem to feel that we're going to trade much, much lower in the near future. However, IMO we're going to stay right around 0.31, give or take a few cents; that's the PPS that GTC itself, by agreeing to this deal, has set as the current market value.
Your thoughts?
Zeeuw: Best of luck! EOM
Dr. Cox just a few minutes ago:
"Very pleased to announce LFB financing..."
"We remain confident in our ability to finance this company..."
"Today you heard the story of strong progress..."
IMHO, eventually there will be a decent return on investment here...eventually. However, for the forseeable future, I can't see how one could argue with Dew's assessment of "dead money."
This morning I'm struggling with the option of just selling at a big loss and trying to recoup with something else. Damn!
Did not take us long to go right smack to 0.31 PPS!
RE: GTC Announcement....
"Is That All There Is?" by Peggy Lee.
My thoughts exactly, I almost posted the same thing.
We need VOLUME, VOLUME, VOLUME!
Vin-
While I agree in principle that any business needs to watch costs, we all know that it takes money to make money.
I'd also be very worried about the negative, "this-is-our-last-desperate-gasp" signal that a cost-cutting announcement would send to the market. Whether it's one of the big boys like PFE or AMGN or a small fry like CEGE or MEMY, that announcement is usually followed by a prolonged drop in the PPS.
Perhaps MEMY would be the best example: announced layoffs and other cost-cutting measures,continued and even accelerated their PPS slide from the mid-0.20's to the current under 0.10.
I just don't know, it's a tough call. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.