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FBRT reports tonight. Added a little at 12.85 this am.
HMLP - aargh! Earnings out and no news on the buyout offer. Earned 37 cents a share. Not bad for a $4.36 stock. This company use to pay a 44 cent per share quarterly dividend until they had an issue with one of their charters. Once they get that resolved perhaps they start paying a larger dividend again. Now paying 4 cents annually. The holding company offer of $4.25 looks to me to be too low and I doubt it will be accepted. The offer does help put a floor on downside. So, I see little downside risk to the trade, and significant upside potential. If they paid a $1.00 annual dividend with a 10% yield it would be a $10 stock.
RRC out with good report and going to start paying a dividend. Projected $1bil in free cash flow for 2022, or about $4 per share. Buyback announced too! Up 75% in after hours.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3802963-range-resources-non-gaap-eps-of-0_96-misses-0_02-revenue-of-1_57b-beats-698_01m
Looking to add to PBI-B tomorrow.
PBI has a senior bond that matures in 2037 with a current yield of 5.8%. PBI-B matures in 2043. Current yield is 7.9%. Big difference for a senior bond where one trades in the bond market and the other NYSE.
MHNC - Bot a small starter position today. Exchange traded debt for MHLD. Senior unsecured, unsub. I need to research this one more before buying more. Yields over 9% here.
HMLP reports tomorrow morning. Could be interesting. Hope to hear more about the offer for $4.25. Hopefully they turn it down.
RECAF February 2022 Presentation
https://reconafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/ReconAfrica-Investor-Presentation.pdf
RECAF - Interesting story. Early stage resource development companies can be extremely good, or bad. I would have to do more research. One problem is that they continue to issue more shares to develop the resource, diluting current holders. With more recent shares issued their market cap is already at $1.03billion. But, it does appear ready to start showing increasing production.
This analyst link was interesting.
https://clients.haywood.com/uploadfiles/secured_reports/RECOJan202022.pdf
Does this report indicate they will be cash flow positive this year?
Thanks for the idea! I need to read up on this one more.
SMLP - This is from a quarterly earnings call transcript from March 4th of 2021. The stocks I trade I don't usually expect multiple returns, but SMLP is an exception. I think it could be a triple or more in two years. Once they start paying a dividend again this one could fly!
From the transcript; March 4th 2021;
JPMorgan Warns The Ghost Of 2018 Will Steamroll Goldman's Bullish Narrative
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-warns-ghost-2018-will-steamroll-goldmans-bullish-narrative?s=03
ET- "Citi midstream analyst Timm Schneider ran some buyout math - private equity could pay an 80%+ premium for Energy Transfer (NYSE:ET) and still generate a 20% IRR over the five-year investment horizon."
ET - Out with good earnings. Happy to see them curtail capital expenditures and use free cash flow to pay down debt and return capital to unitholders. From their earnings release;
Thanks for the observation. I agree. I have been trading SQQQ as a hedge for my other positions. Short term trades usually holding less than two days. It has worked out fairly well.
I am more off an individual stock picker that looks for mis-priced opportunities. Pretty much a fundy only guy.
SMLP - I really like the potential for much more higher PPS for this one over the next two years.
Earnings out on the 26th.
https://summitmidstreampartnerslp.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/summit-midstream-partners-lp-schedules-fourth-quarter-2021
FB - bought some at 214.19 for a trade.
ET reports tonight. My largest holding by far. rule breaker. Has grown to about 10% of portfolio. Full position for me is 5%. Probably should trim but I really like the fundamentals on this issue. My cost basis is about $6 less dividends.
GNRC - another recent buy up 8.7% on good report.
Small position. Re-looking at it, scratching my head why I did not buy more.
FLNG out with a great report and up here 8%!
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3800525-flex-lng-non-gaap-eps-of-118-revenue-of-1146m-beats-by-438m
Average Time Charter Equivalent1 ("TCE") rate of $95,908 per day for the fourth quarter 2021, compared to $68,341 per day for the third quarter 2021.
93% of 2022 chartered.
Bot FBRT-E. Preferred for FBRT. Yields 7.8% here.
SOLD out of my APAM position.
Added some FLNG on this pullback at 19.93. Puts my average cost at 19.15 less the 75 cent dividend in November. They report tomorrow morning. Do not know why we are seeing a 95 pullback other than the Russia news. FLNG pays a heafty dividend. Usually that is a warning sign.
"FLNG is involved in shipping LNG using its fleet of 13 modern LNG carriers. The average age of its fleet is around 2 years and all of it ships have modern & energy efficient propulsion systems; MEGI or X-DF. Of the 13 ships operated by FLNG, 9 are owned by the company and 4 are under bareboat lease agreements from different lessors."
FLNG is not without risk. Good read and summation of those risk.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486719-flex-lng-stock-high-risk-investment
I have only about a 1% position in this holding.
FWIW, I have started posting on my old board that I set up in 2005. We had a lot of good traders back then.
Probably a bunch of Lehman CT trades if you do a search. I left that board in about 2009. The current moderator has signed me on as a moderator, and I changed the name of the board back to its original - Traders Cooperative.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Traders-Cooperative-4325
Here's a post to show crazy things were. I got a fill on LHHMQ for 2 cents and the common was selling for 12 cents. I was the first person on IHUB to recommend staying away from the traditional preferreds and common and buying the CTs. Not sure what Lehman board I was posting on back then.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32289439&txt2find=lhhmq
By the way, raising cash here. Hard to do as most the portfolio is exchange traded debt and preferreds that pay nice dividends and a bit immune to market fluctuation.
My largest holding is ET. Over weight with a average cost of 6.21.
WES is second largest at $10.21 average cost.
I am probably too heavily weighted in energy, but it is a sector I follow. Sold all my producers and took profits. Still holding midstreams. CHK is only upstream producer held. Correction. A small position in RRC too.
CHK exited bankruptcy last year and the bondholders got a great deal. Market cap of about $8bil and the average projected earnings for this year is about $1.1 bil. They have said they will be returning a good part of that to shareholders. Only 117 million shares outstanding. Of course the past shareholders got screwed me being one of them. Small loss as I was trading post bk shares for speculation.
I have a nearly full position at about 4% of port with average cost at $58. Lowest buy near $40.
Reports February 23rd.
Preferreds spread sheets. Great spread sheets for watching for bargains with preferreds.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M18jyMWV54AAcrks45VgISIgzbxu_7uy23gSJG1Ed80/edit#gid=0
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14BPDMIwDyCFAZjnzqQXqYRodWrMoUXGaXemrUEV2TGQ/edit#gid=0
Added to PBI-B. This is exchanged trade debt for Pitney Bowes. It senior unsubordinated debt. Goes ex-div the 17th. Stripped yield is 7.35%.
HMLP_ Another special situation fundie trade. HMLP has an outstanding buy offer from Hoegh LNG, the holding company for $4.25 a share. Shares currently trade at $4.33.
I am thinking when Brookfield Business Partners bought TOO and initially to put in a low ball offer to buy the remaining units they did not already own. TOO traded above that offer and BBP eventually raised the offer and it became a very profitable trade.
HMLP was trading at $18 last August. And were paying a $1.76 annual dividend. Now they pay a 4 cents. Here is an article that explains what happened.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4479571-hoegh-mlp-is-a-hold-and-maybe-a-buy-for-some?v=1644844644#comment-91522513
I don't like these holding companies being heavy handed in these take over offers. But I think there is potential to profit on this one.
Speculative trade. 1% of portfolio. Earnings out by end of month. I don't see that a date has been announced. Certainly I think the company will be making comments about the offer. Hopefully the board has decided to turn it down.
Good points. I have been online trading since 1994. Etrade rep once remarked years later that I was in their first batch of accounts. After the internet crash I ran in to a trader that had a very simple rule. He held a large position in SPY and he only held it if the S&P was above the 200SMA. And sold if it dipped below. He traded around that position but mostly out of the market with the S&P below 200. If you pull up a long term chart you can see he did pretty well. He did not do shorts. Said they put him in a bad mood wishing something would go down.
I always keep that in mind. Unfortunately many times not near enough.
Do you, or ever follow Harry Dent? Books? He theorized that we would go into the great depression about 2009-2010 based on demographics. I haven't followed him for years now. What he and I did not count on was the government going to a low to zero interest rate policy, and adding trillions of dollars in deficits to pump up the market. And now all the stimulus that had been added in the last couple of years.
To your point, now a lot of that appears to be coming to an end. We are so addicted to such an accommodative Federal Reserve along with ever increasing government spending that the US economy is in for a big hit if that comes to an end. I don't see how not only US but other countries as well can avoid it.
The S&P 200sma is at 44.53. We are currently at 4418. So right now my cash levels are rising. Most of my holdings now are dividend paying issues. Unfortunately from what I read 75% of a stocks movement is market related. So, the good can go down with the bad.
I do like to play speculative trades like some a posted. But again I like to mostly be in companies here that treat me like a partner and shares profits by way of dividends.
Thanks!
CLF earnings came out today. On the surface they looked bad. Looking under the hood they are much better. They announced a $1bil dollar buy back, or more than 10% of their market cap of $9.6bil. Ceo comment; "CEO comment: "With demand on the rebound, particularly in automotive, 2022 is set to be another phenomenal year for profitability at Cleveland-Cliffs. Based on our recently renewed contracts, we are now selling the vast majority of our fixed-price contractual volumes at substantially higher selling prices. Even at the steel futures curve as of today, we would expect to see higher average selling prices for our steel in 2022 than in 2021. As we look forward to delivering another stellar year in 2022 and with our limited needs for capex, we are now comfortable to implement shareholder-focused actions ahead of our original expectations.”
The covered call gives limits my upside, but gives me some downside protection if I am wrong.
CLF _ Covered call. Long here at 19.53. Sold the April $20's for 1.68.
FBRT - Blackrock jumps in with now owning 15.9% of the company.
https://fintel.io/so/us/fbrt
GNW - Another longer term trade that I am waiting to play out. I like the longer term prospects for both ACT and GNW. ACT is proposing to their board a $200mil dividend. There is only 163 mil shares outstanding, or $1.23 pershare. ACT trades at 85% of book. A little better than RDN and widely better than ESNT and NMIH. Of course those two are newer and don't have the legacy insured from the 2008 mortgage financial crisis. GNW owns 81.6% of ACT. ACT value per share to GNW is about $6.00. GNW sells for 4.36 here. Obviously the market believes that the remainder of GNW, mainly long term care and life insurance, is worth less than zero. GNW said at the last conference call that GNW holdings will not be contributing any more funds to the LTC and life units. Indicating that they are on there own. Imo, GNW should be selling for at least the value of ACT at this point. The way I read this is that LTC/Life sinks or swims and GNW holdings would not be affected. LTC/Life is currently profitable. GNW also says that expect to not receive any dividends from LTC/Life for the foreseeable future. And I am thinking that ACT will perform better as an independent unit.
SMLP - I own a fair size speculative position in SMLP.
SMLP had distributable cash flow last quarter 6.37 per share ($45.7mil). Thinking it may be possible for SMLP to have DCF in 2022 equal to their market cap today of $191.5mil. Certainly possible in 2023 as they pay down more debt. It added 20 new wells last quarter, and 45 new ones projected this quarter. And Double E pipeline up and running!
I mean, what other MLP even comes close to selling at near one time DCF?
CHK - CHK is one of the more intriguing positions I own. Got screwed on the BK for a very small position. Screwed so badly that I figured the bondholders would do okay with the conversion to common. $40- $45 was a steal in my opinion. Not the same company now.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3786744-not-the-same-chesapeake-rated-new-buy-at-bofa-with-pristine-balance-sheet
Warrant symbols are CHKEW, CHKEL, CHKEZ.
Adjusted for dividends warrant exercise prices here; http://investors.chk.com/warrants
FBRT looks compelling to me. As of September 30 book value of $17.78 per diluted share reflecting merger consideration and transaction expenses. Their merger presentation says they are targeting a dividend of 10% of book value. They now pay a 35.5 cent quarterly. Current price per share of 13.25. That is a 25% discount to book if book remains near the same. And the company said they would buy back $100 million in shares if PPS was less less than book. The earnings report on the 23rd could be interesting.
And DJN, I will gladly accept that $1 as every bit helps. And when you see the good works we will be doing possibly I will be able to get you to up that donation with all the wealth you've gained with the CTs.