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Welcome to the board!
Joe
Interesting read. I haven't read lemetropolecafe for years. Back in the early 2000's they reposted something I wrote about the Counter Party Risk Policy Group and Goldman Sachs.
https://www.kitco.com/ind/Murphy/sep112006.html
SMLP - As I mentioned I was very disappointed with SMLP's 4Q report. many of us online, as well as there management were surised that more wells were not being put in service behind there pipelines.
Some thought management's outlook was too conservative for 2022-2023. Interesting read by someone who dug deeper in to the report.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4493808-summit-midstream-conservative-fy-2022-guidance
No longer seeing this play out like I had, I have trimmed mt position. But, with new emphasis on domestic drilling perhaps SMLP will do better than projected.
ACT - Insider buy. COO for 5,000 shares at market. Mortgage insurer spun off from GNW. Stock trades at 20.58 here. Compared to the metrics of the other mortgage insurers (ESNT, NMIH, RDN, MTG) ACT should be an easy $26.00 stock after they announce they will be setting a regular quarterly dividend. Something they said they will be doing this year. At $26 that would be a 26% upside.
GNW is greatly misunderstood. And greatly under-priced IMO. The holding company basically has two units. One being ACT that they spun-off but still own 81.6%. And the other is the US Life unit that includes long term care, life, and annuities. GNW sees that unit as worth zero to them for the foreseeable future. GNW plans to not invest anymore capital in this unit and they are on their own. ACT on the other hand has value to GNW. Their ACT position is worth about $2.74 bil here. That is about $5.39 a share. GNW is selling here at 3.77, a 30% discount. And of course GNW will be seeing dividends from ACT. And GNW receives tax income from both ACT and US Life.
What if you were aware of a dangerous situation ahead? Then you saw some people headed for it. Won't you want to warn them although it is no danger to you as you are not headed in that direction... Save them. Then, you saw some that had been injured by that same dangerous situation. Wouldn't you want to render aid?
It was well known in 2011 that the Cts would not see a recovery. Even the disclosure statement showed that in black and white. If you are familiar with the bankruptcy process and the financials it was obvious.
Over the last 11 years many here have posted about various situations where they thought that the CTs would see a distribution, or some other form of recovery. Every one of those situations I have shared my opinion and stated that there was no basis for thinking the CTs would see anything. And, every single time I was correct.
I have started posting stock trading ideas on another board here on IHUB. Very much past time to move on from this dog.
My agenda? I will not be able to help those that are in complete denial. And now that the Cts only trade on the OTC Expert market not many could even buy shares (nor sell). What I can do is help some of those that have been burned by this trade and move forward with new ideas.
Yes, time to transmission to other trades.
RILY - Significant insider market buy by CEO of 30k shares posted this am.
CSIQ - Sold uncommitted shares here at 37.10 from the $28.03 buy.
Still hold the deep ITM covered call.
lol! I actually started posting a lot on another thread. Should have named it the CT Recovery Thread. Too late to save anyone here. But, going forward,,,today is new day! Time to talk stocks that make you money.
Fortunately I was able to save some from losing all with these worthless CTs. Unfortunately for those still in it is time to move on. Let me help with offering some trade ideas. Let's talk stocks that make money.
If you view the LBHI quarterlys, and the monthly operating reports you will note that activity is down to almost nothing. If you still truly believe that there is a chance for an afterlife for Lehman don't you think the financial press would be all over it? The new CEO on CNBC? If any chance don't you think large funds would be buying?
Many great stocks to move on to.
BHF looks a lot like JXN. BHF does not pay a dividend. Their preference is to buy back shares. And they buy back a lot.
This from the last conference call. Someone asked about the buybacks.
JXN goes ex-div Friday.
Nice bounce in BHF and JXN. Thanks for the idea.
KNTK- Long at 59.83. Sell-off on secondary offering.
DLNG-A Sold these shares for 27% gain. Quick profit. In this energy market I will take the profit on these preferred shares.
"Gus theory,,buy high,,sell.low "
Or, Jersey's theory,,Buy high, and stay in denial till your shares go to zero.
It never fails to stop by this board and see the same nonsense being said year after year with no resemblance to reality.
The CTs will see zero recovery. That is a fact!
If you are looking for some fresh ideas, stop by. Don't let Lehman define your investment decisions.
RILY - Dropped back down to the insider buy range. Added a little at 59.45.
Holey smokes. - LNG CEO says of without expansion, they are sold out of liquefied natural gas till 2040!
Btw, my buys were small. One to keep JXN on my radar, and BHF because relative strength is below 20 and also to stay on my radar. I owned BHF before in the range and had a nice profitable swing trade.
BHF has broad institutional support and Vanguard and Blackrock both own about 9.6% of shares.
Jackson Financial (JXN) does look interesting. Recent spin-off. Thanks for the idea. Bot some. Not sure why these variable annuity companies don't get any respect. BHF is another. In fact, I just looked at BHF and got back in small at 45.06. I like that JXN pays a dividend. BHF does not. GNW has their variable annuity unit in run off. But, on last conference call at Q&A an analyst asked what they thought about the interest they were receiving in that unit.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461521-curreen-capital-q3-2021-investor-letter
I will have to look in to these guys more and try to find what the fear is in variable annuities.
CDR- C. Update - Looks like the way the deal is structured they get around the change of control issue.
Also, not clear what the safeguards are for WHLR not to stop making preferred dividends although the release says " independent public reporting entity that holds a significant retained portfolio of income-producing assets is intended to facilitate the undisrupted ability of the Surviving Company to pay all required dividends..."
CDRprC and CDRprD. Bought some CDR-A right before the close.
CDR announce last fall that they were going to look to sell their assets. The stock has been on a steady climb since. Wednesday they announced a sale of assets and remaining to be merged with WHLR.
I assumed the preferred would do well too as the common. To my surprise I noticed that the preferreds had crashed. the C's were selling for $9.12. That was down from $23 the day of the announcement. I read the press release. The press release implied the preferreds would be held by WHLR. WHLR own preferreds has had their dividends suspended. HOlders of the CDR preferreds assumed the same fate and sold. If you have to get out of a big holding of preferreds of any company the door is narrow as they trade thinly.
I decided to dig deeper and read the SEC filing. The detail there implied something different that the press release.
Bot some DLNG-A preferreds here at 17.36. Speculative gamble. 3 million shares outstanding.Volume here is 32,500. Perhaps fixed income trying to unload Russian exposure in to a thin market. Volume on common today less than 30 day average. No rush for the exits as the preferreds would imply. Yields 12.75%. B series 13%.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4492898-dynagas-lng-risks-outweigh-potential-rewards
This author thinks there is too much risk. Russia biggest customer.
CHK - trimmed some to take profits. Actually sold the CHKEW warrants for a 40% gain. Position was getting to big. Goes ex-div tomorrow. Wondering if the dividend is propping it up, and perhaps sell-off tomorrow. Sold some April $80 calls for $4 on some of the remaining holdings.
CORR - Speculative casino trade here at 2.89. New 52 week lows. Actually all time lows! Earnings out on the 14th. This company is going through a transition. Now owns regulated pipelines. Preferreds are holding up
This was a $40 stock until the pandemic crushed them.
CLF _ Closed out this position. Nice move but near highs. Taking the profit.
WBA - Bot at 46.40. Small position.
Looked at it at $45 but got distracted and missed the buy. Strong support in the $44-45 range.
RILY - Nice! Ended the day at 65.20!
RILY - Long some here at 61.40.
6 insider buys posted this am.
Goes ex-div 3/8 for $1.00
Paid out about 10.00 in dividends last year.
Very shareholder friendly.
DHCNL - Buying the last two days. Senior unsecured unsub debt for DHC. Yields 7.8%
QUANTUMONLINE.COM SECURITY DESCRIPTION: Diversified Healthcare Trust, formerly Senior Housing Properties Trust, 6.25% Senior Notes Due 2046, issued in $25 denominations, redeemable at the issuer's option on or after 2/18/2021 at $25 per share plus accrued and unpaid interest, and maturing 2/1/2046. Interest distributions of 6.25% per annum ($1.5625 per annum or $0.39063 per quarter) will be paid quarterly on 3/1, 6/1, 9/1 & 12/1 to holders of record on the record date that will be 2/15, 5/15, 8/15 & 11/15 respectively (NOTE: the ex-dividend date is one business day prior to the record date). Distributions paid by these debt securities are interest and as such are NOT eligible for the preferential 15% to 20% tax rate on dividends and are also NOT eligible for the dividend received deduction for corporate holders. Units are expected to trade flat, which means accrued interest will be reflected in the trading price and the purchasers will not pay and the sellers will not receive any accrued and unpaid interest. This security was rated as Baa3 by Moody’s and BBB- by S&P at the date of its IPO. The Notes are unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the company and will rank equally with all existing and future unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness of the company.
ALIN-A and ALIN-B. Up nearly 100% on these. Altera Infrastructure in good position for energy in Europe.
FLNG - Sold 20% of my position here. Up at near resistance. Took the 42% profit.
ACT - Long at $21.00. Mortgage insurer 81.6% owned by GNW.
I responded to some comments on a SA article this weekend and ran some numbers for ACT and possible projections. Not paying a regular dividend YET, but said they will start this year.
What I wrote at SA;
"Another interesting exercise is taking the $542mil in expected ACT earnings and dividing by the 163 mil shares outstanding for $3.33 per share (street expects 3.35 and 3.57 in 2023). Pay out 40% of that in dividends for a dividend of $1.33. Put a 4% yield on that for a price per share of $33.25. 4%? RDN is at 3.34; ESNT 1.8%; MTG 2.15. At 5% ACT goes for $26.60. For fun, lets look at a 4% yield for GNW's ownership. GNW owns 133 million shares of ACT. ACT at $33.25 gives it a market cap of $5.42 bil. GNW's ownership of 81.6% is equal to $4.42bil, or $8.58 per share.
I think once ACT establishes a consistent dividend the stock then takes on a whole bigger audience of income buyers. GNW has an interest to have that dividend as large as possible. I calculated a 40% payout of earnings. What if it is 50%? 50% of next year's projected earnings of $3.57 is $1.78. With a 4% yield gives you a PPS of $44.50 for ACT. To GNW that is 11.49 a share!"
GNW is currently at 3.98. I see limited downside for them. They have been in a trading range about the same for 6 years. They are so much better in shape than they were 6 years ago. One could argue that they could by GNW and get ACT cheaper, and I would agree. But GNW seems to be range bound and I think ACT could see a bounce when regular dividends are announced.
Interesting video on renewable energy topic
SMLP - Shocked! Down 40%. Pegged this one really, really wrong.
I get that it was a weak report. Thought it was mostly priced in. Did not 2022 Guidance to be so bad.
Market cap of about $154 mil here. Adjusted EBITDA of $54.7 million and DCF of $29.9 million. About 10 million units outstanding. That is nearly $3 a unit in DCF for just one quarter.
>>Plenty of "uncertainty" everywhere, between the Fed, the debt,
the Ukraine, etc.... <<
And even more so today...and the market rallies?
Sell the rumor. Buy the news?
Going in to the day I had sold my hedges a couple days ago. The rally gave me an opportunity to take another position in SQQQ before the close.
SMLP earnings on deck in the am.
GOOGL - Bought back the put at 26.60 for 50% gain.
MHNC - Added at 20.52
Exchange traded debt.
GOOGL - PEG here of .92. Looks cheap. Sold 1 March 2410 put for $53.30. Expires in 23 days.
CHK out with a good report. Yeah, they missed but look at the highlights!
2022 Guidance Highlights:
Increased 2022 adjusted EBITDAX guidance to $3.8 – $4.0 billion (previous range $3.4 – $3.6 billion) with no change in capital spending
Expected to generate approximately $1.9 – $2.1 billion in adjusted free cash flow in 2022 and greater than $9 billion in adjusted free cash flow over the next five years
Anticipate paying between $900 million – $1.1 billion (approximately 13% current yield, based on current stock price) in total dividends in 2022 and greater than $5 billion over the next five years
Strong balance sheet with net debt(1)-to-2022E EBITDAX ratio of approximately 0.7x, pro forma for Chief and Powder River Basin cash consideration
Quarterly dividend of $1.7675 per common share, consisting of the first quarterly variable dividend of $1.33 per common share and a quarterly base dividend of $0.4375 per common share, payable on March 22, 2022 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 7, 2022
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/18683560-chesapeake-energy-corporation-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2021-financial-and
FBRT - Not happy with their report last night. I expected a buyback as they spoke of in the merger proposal. Hopefully they are buying back here at low PPS. Market cap of $572mil. They proposed a $100mil buy back. 17%.
Yields 10.9%