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Gordon has this thing clicking on all cylinders....still a bargain under ten imo
Really a fantastic entry point here- solid, growing portfolio here and in Europe, terrific newly revised credit rating, two dividend increases in 6 months (one more before the year is over imo), management team aligned with equity investors (making 36 in the next 18 months nearly a lock also imo)....adding slowly here today for the first time in 2 years and will continue to add at every .50 drop increments if they happen....all just my quite humble opinion but this has become one of the smartest 2 year investments available
....sweet terms, kudos to management here after several weeks of bitching and moaning by me....
....there, that's better ....
....losing shareholder confidence daily, this becomes nearly I possible to rebuild with institutions....
....this drop is all Gordon....I've no problem praising a man when he does a job well and the flip side is ill call a spade a spade....you've been around too long to know you can't let shareholders twist in the wind when you're trying to build institutional support sir....
....while not likely a big deal in the grand scheme of things i am disappointed that management touted a new credit facility to be closed early this quarter and now heading in to the second half it remains unseen....a minor misstep but a misstep all the same, and the sort of thing that leads to slow steady selling until it gets delivered....
....the call was pretty straightforward, most q2 deals closed in the latter part of the q, they feel comfortable in being able to close as many deals in future quarters in the near term as they did in q 2....sounds as if the credit facility is imminent....dividends to c and p are the goal but nothing new under the sun as far as when....its possible they may make the preferred holders whole with the credit facility if continuing to accrue it would be an impediment to piling up more deals but i think they plan to do nothing but find, close and build cash flows until theyre nearly forced to pay divys....this is terrific news if you have a long term horizon, if your timeframe is short this may be a disappointing couple of quarters....all just my opinion and interpretation....
....without seeing the actual 8k and just the PR i do not think the preferred arrears are in the cash number....they lost money in the quarter....i think gordon is spot on when he continues to withold the dividend....spend tens of millions of dollars in cash and that money is gone forever, spend that tens of millions of dollars in cash on nnn properties and the cash flow is permanent and the asset grows in value over time....the dividends could possibly be paid when they announce a large line of credit assuming all other available cash is deployed and their revenue streams are large enough to pay the bill....so far gordon has delivered on everything promised to shareholders and i think you'll get a bit more clarity on the call....it will be disappointing however if they do not deliver on the credit facility they promised early Q3 (from the presentation just 3 weeks ago) today or before 8-15-13....also, i was wondering who the seeking alpha article was referencing when they said the Q2 revenue handily beat estimates, who has published estimates?
....havent had a chance to look other than a glance but that 16.3 million in revenue is bigger than I expected....
....an 85K share trade in the preferred in the PREMARKET is a tad unusual....doesn't it make sense that if there is a large credit facility to be announced (sec filing says targeting early Q3), and new deals coming on board at a faster than expected clip (faster than I expected anyway) that part of any credit facility would be used to true up the preferreds?....also, they have done a terrific job in communicating with investors, not just as deals come in but with investor updates-- my favorite part is where they are projuecting not only cash flow from the completed deals bit also for those still in the pipeline (those where a LOI has been signed anyway)....id be very interested to see numbers that show potential cash flow from any cash deployed from a large credit facility....
....page 33 of the investor update from 7-17 says they're targeting a credit facility in early q3 2013....i would think that means the first month of the q or at least the first half, thoughts?....
....expect to have a credit facility in early Q3 2013....any day now i suppose....
....very interesting update as of yesterday....slide 36 mentions something called 'preferred freezer BTS'....what is that exactly?
....happy to hear that i'm wrong but i assume this is much ado about nothing wrt to gramercy....would this not remain as part of the cdos (05 i think) which the company plans to sell to the first bidder (if only to shed costs and overhead)if any show interest?....
....the abrupt end to the CDO's actually has me confused....I'm still thinking that through and have an email in to IR with questions....
Fed backstopping the CMBS market indefinitely alone should push this thing to 4.....yes, literally
....can someone please lay out a best case scenario for GKK assuming they're able to pick this up cheap at the foreclosure auction in november?....
Financially troubled LVH to get new management
30 August 2012
By Howard Stutz
LAS VEGAS -- The financially troubled LVH will gain new management under an agreement reached between the 3,000-room hotel-casino's largest creditor and a court-appointed receiver who has been operating the property since January.
Employees of the off-Strip hotel-casino were notified Wednesday through the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Act that a foreclosure sale of LVH would be held in November. The federal act requires companies to notify employees and union representatives of an impending plant or business shutdown.
However, the LVH operators are not planing to cease operations. The notice was termed a "technical step" by one source because it will allow the property's employees to be rehired under new management.
A joint venture between Gramercy Capital and Goldman Sachs Mortgage Co. LLC, the current lender of the property, is expected to bid for LVH in the foreclosure sale.
"Our intention is to keep the property going," said a Goldman Sachs source who asked not to be identified. "The intention is for the lenders to purchase the property in foreclosure and continue to operate the property."
Several sources said Las Vegas-based Navegante Group would take over operations of LVH's hotel and casino after the sale and approval by Nevada gaming regulators. Employees of LVH would then become employees of Navegante.
LVH employs more than 1,800 workers.
"Although no one can guarantee the outcome of the foreclosure sales auction, LVH is in the process of preparing paperwork necessary to transfer employees from the old company to the new one, assuming the joint venture of Gramercy and Goldman is successful in acquiring the assets of the property," LVH spokesman Kurt Ouchida said in an emailed statement.
Navegante operates the Hooters Hotel and four properties in Elko. Until last year, the company managed the Grand Sierra in Reno and the now-closed Sahara.
Navegante Chief Executive Officer Larry D. Woolf declined to comment on the LVH on Wednesday.
Ouchida said LVH has booked group and convention business for 2013 and beyond.
LVH, formally LVH-Las Vegas Hotel & Casino, has been in receivership since last September. The hotel-casino was known as the Las Vegas Hilton until January, when Hilton Worldwide ended the agreement that allowed operators to use the Hilton brand.
Billionaire financier Kirk Kerkorian built the hotel in the 1960s and called it The International. He sold the property to the Hilton Corp., which expanded the hotel to 3,000 rooms.
The Las Vegas Hilton was known worldwide as the showroom home of Elvis Presley. After the Hilton name was removed, the casino fell on hard times.
In July, receiver Ronald Johnson said the hotel-casino was falling short of a business plan that had already forecast for a tough year. Through June 30, revenues of $62.1 million were 9.2 percent below projections, and the operating loss of $6.3 million was more than double the projected loss of $2.6 million.
Colony Resorts LVH Acquisitions LLC, a subsidiary of Los Angeles-based private equity group Colony Capital, defaulted on the property's $252 million mortgage.
A receptionist answering the phones at Colony's offices Wednesday said the company "no longer has any interest" in LVH and would not comment on Wednesday's events.
Colony Resorts LVH Acquisitions will remain LVH's owner until the foreclosure sale is completed.
http://www.casinocitytimes.com/article/financially-troubled-lvh-to-get-new-management-61315
....insider buying for the first time in maybe forever....20K bought on the open market by the Indaba preferred director at 2.62....
the price action since the deal was announced seems to me that, although this thing is still miles under the radar, this is under accumulation....the massive short position dropped another 200k+/- as reported late last week....having read through this deal two times wrt the filing i can't think of a better scenario for this thing setting up for a very long sustained rise....i agree with hubbdubb wrt sustaining the cash flow from 06 and further think they'll also put 05 on solid footing prior to the presentation due in 33 days....if they're able to do that then i believe multi year highs are not only possible but quite likely....
....what we want to see is not only a big dent in the cash we want the cash sitting idle to be close to zero....the summaries on yahoo are good estimates based on the limited info in the PR....just a few months ago this wouldn't have even warranted a PR and we wouldn't have a clue whats happening until it would have closed....if the financing terms are decent, and they should be the best available because oft he equity from the JV 40-45%, this deal likely uses a tad more than half the cash and should net 14-15 million annually....what many may be missing is the potential for large gains in commercial property values over the next several years....if they can find a similar deal or deals with the remaining cash it would appear the Gordon has now turned idle cash generating nothing into a 10 year cash flow of 25-30 million with the kicker of potential huge gains in property values....so far Gordon has delivered on everything he said he would do (remember just 13 days ago Gordon said buying a nnn portfolio would take "12-15 months hopefully sooner")....yes i believe this represents the sustained cash flow to be used to make the preferreds current, further i think they'll hold off as long as possible on the common dividend and use all cash flow to expand the nnn side as quickly as possible....i suspect they'll find a way to get 05 and 06 on more solid footing by the end of the year....i'm hoping they're spending equal amounts of time on finding ways to get sga down to around 30 million annually....i expect next year could show revenues from all three legs of the company( cdo's, nnn portfolio and property management) of around 75-80 million....
....far cheaper than the 8.125% preferred....think of it a bit differently, when they deploy and 'moderateley' lever the cash up by 50% as Gordon said, they're immediately creating a decade of revenue stream to pay dividends with, grow cash balances with, which allows them to continually grow the size of the re portfolio to pay higher dividends etc....--as opposed to spending that cash hoard to buy out preferreds and give up a decades worth of revenue stream forever....i would think the preferred holders would be close to considering taking the enormous premium the preferreds are trading at and rolling some of the proceeds in to the common....every preferred holder sits on a very nice capital gain today....
....while i dont see how selling cdos could result in anywhere near what just 2006 cash flows to corporate i really get the sense he wants nothing other than owning net leased properties and managing others for kbs, wish i would have asked if expanding the property management side is a significant part of his plan as well....
....he mentioned both tim and roger by name as i recall....also like the new name gramercy2.0 ....
....i liked everything I heard on the call....Gordon seems to have a real sense of urgency, he seems focused on making the company more streamlined, understandable and investor friendly....there will be no dividends paid until the 200 million in cash is generating recurring cash flow...."12-15 months hopefully sooner"....cash will be levered up 50% so expecting a 300 million NNN portfolio to be generating 17-18 million after debt service, my guesstimate....i'd bet the cdo's are going to be sold, he hesitated on this question....i'd bet the cdo bonds at corporate to be sold as well and used to buy properties where the cash flow is much higher....
....36 hours....c'mon Gordon, let's remove a shitload of uncertainty and speak plainly, openly and honestly and get this show on the road brother....a nice start to the Dugan era would be a sizzling hot 'short' roast....see you all Thursday for some dissection of the news....
...it certainly could take a while but I doubt as long as the pessimists think....there is an actual special committee tasked with setting the course for the company....this special committee did hire Wells Fargo to assist them in exploring every option with respect to a potential new course....i don't doubt that there will be some communication on this from management in a matter of weeks/months not years....the contract with cozzi could be an inflection point where everything comes to a head in just a month....I'm just guessing like everyone else, how about all other posters/followers weigh in with their guesses, at least it would give us something to talk about....
....no doubts as it pertains to this being a terrific deep value holding....i do believe that it's high time management here shits or gets off the pot, i really don't want to be here with the same unanswered questions a year from now....i could be patient indefinitely if i believed in the game plan....at this point there isnt one, and its been long enough for management to start laying out the x's and o's....just getting a bit frustrated, i understand the comnpany as well as anyone else on the outside, i understand that a group of folks were tasked with (and wells fargo under contract) finding ways to sell this thing to the highest bidder or get that mountain of cash to work....there are apparently no credible offers and the cash sits in earning next to nothing....please dont mistake my thinking out loud for doubt....how about your thoughts my friend on the same questions i'm struggling with?
....appears we have further institutional erosion....massive volume but the seller doesnt seem to be in a hurry as its very orderly(at least it is at this point)....i'm of the opinion that the 'special committee' has taken too long....the sale of the company was removed from the language in the recent filing....if no one is interested in parts or the entire thing there is only two options to consider....borrow cash to lend it back out or spend the cash on real estate....what kind of money could the company generate if the used 150 million to buy 500 million worth of real estate?....what kind of spread could they earn if they pledged 150 million to acquire a 500 million line of credit? could they sell the finance division for enough money to pay off the preferreds? anyone think roger is staying? anyone think the future direction of the company is hinging on he future employment at gkk? did slgreen find a buyer for the rest of their shares at 2.50?
....plenty of places to spend that cash since September....this latter scenario is more than plausible IMO....
...anyone think they've saved that cash to redeem the preferred next week?
....have you seen the march cdo #'s already?....also, the only month that really matters (for 2005)is the distribution month and thats April no?....
....of course I'm not always hostile in my posts....
..you say....
"My point is that SG&A goes up because people get raises,"
...when actually what you said first and i responded to was...
" SG&A and preferred eats up all the cashflow from the CDOs,"
....this tells me you either did read the filing last week or didnt understand it or something else, i dont really care i just call em as i see em....
....you backpedal and relent by saying...
"The current distribution may be > SG&A + preferred dividends, but it won't stay at that level if management keep sitting on their hands."
....so your 'value recap' was flawed as you admit and your real beef is with the timeframe the special committee is taking in deciding on the new direction of the company....i agree with you on this point my friend, there seems to have been enough time to get something sold, started, merged, joint ventured, borrowed or raised....at the end of the day the filing says the work of the special committee and Wells Fargo continues and i doubt it's in vain....i suspect the most pressing issue management is contending with today is hammering out a long term real estate management agreement with KBS, the deadline for this is 10 days away....i'll try not to be so hostile if you promise not to be so sensitive.... peace
fire sale prices of course
....yes, and my confidence in 05 grows by the month....forget about the sp drop Friday and yesterday, this thing has long been thought of as a company trading at firewall prices, the filing last week made this a fact....
....8.3 million a q, the cdo distributions for this year will be DRAMATICALLY higher than both of the previous two years and SUBSTANTIALLY higher than the 30 million you estimate, nearly twice that actually, what's your point?....
what the hell did you read?....cannot self sustain?....30 million a year from the cdo's?....respectfully did someone konk you on the head?
....so is tomorrow the actual deadline for the 2011 10K or not?....did 2005 pass in feb or not?....