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Oh, if that's the case then I misunderstood and his comment about an additional field becomes a possibility (of course then AI has to keep track of what shares were purchased and sold at what prices. Also functionality needs to be added to pick which method of calculating the average we use, such as LIFO, FIFO, etc.).
I'd be interested in knowing if this is something that would be truly helpful to alot of users since it would involve a datamodel change (and datamodel changes should not be done lightly -- even relatively simple ones such as this would be).
Hi AIMster,
The issue with "average cost" is that it can be 0 or even negative.
For example, if I purchase 10 shares for $100, my average cost is $100 / 10 shares or $10 per share. If these shares then rise to $100 and I sell one share, my "average cost" then becomes $0 / 9 shares or $0 per share.
If I sell 2 shares at $100 per, my "average cost" becomes negative $100 / 8 shares or -$12.50 per share. Similarly, a case could be made to decrease "average cost" when dividends are paid out (since dividend payments decrease the value of the company, a dividend event could be viewed as selling a piece of the company and paying out the proceeds to shareholders).
From one perspective that makes sense, but to me, that perspective is attempting to combine profit and average cost into one number when they should really be separate.
Your average cost should always greater than zero. It might be a very low number (such as 2 cents per share), but it should never be 0 or less (unless someone gave you the shares or paid you to take them I suppose, but that opens another can of worms). The other number, your profit, will take into account the realized gains you make when selling.
Hi Tom/AIMster,
Yes, Tom is correct. In AI, selling does not change the previous average cost per share, just purchasing.
Hi Glenn,
No problem. I actually have enough beta testers right now.
I'm working on a new website which will have one or more video demonstrations. So you should be able to see everything the new PI does.
And yes, I do plan special offers for anyone who has any of my software packages (including VSS).
Hello again AIMster,
This was actually put into AI some time ago but taken out for the actual release because the colours didn't look good. I believe I used Green for buy, Red for sell and yellow for hold (basically traffic light colours).
I'll revisit this again when doing the next service pack and see what I can come up with.
Hi AIMster,
I just tried what you describe and I see something a bit different. I can update the first portfolio to Sept. 17th. It appears to work fine. However updating subsequent portfolios is as you described. Definitely a bug I'll have to fix.
I'm surprised nobody else has reported this before, perhaps nobody updates manually and backdates at the same time.
Thanks for the report.
Hello Jack,
The funds TRY to follow the Russell 2000 index, but they don't actually hold the underlying index's components. They use proxies. Here's the description for TWM...
"The investment seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, which correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Russell 2000 index. The fund normally invests 80% of assets in financial instruments with economic characteristics that should be inverse to those of the index. It may employ leveraged investment techniques in seeking its investment objective. The fund is nondiversified."
Note that they try to achieve 2X the inverse (so that's inherently riskier right off the bat), they may use leverage (again, riskier) and the fund is nondiversified (much riskier).
UWM uses similar tactics.
Hello Jack,
Welcome to AIM.
Yes, conceptually these two ETFs should work well with AIM. However they are far riskier than solid stocks or index funds.
If you were going to AIM these two, I would suggest you have enough funds set aside for the long haul and start with a conservative model (i.e. 50% cash). You would also want to AIM these in separate portfolios so that you can capture all of their volatility (if you put them into one portfolio, you'll effectively diversify away the volatility that AIM thrives on).
I also seem to recall that someone (it might have been Tom Veale over at www.aim-users.com) did something similar a few years ago (i.e. AIMing 2X and inverse funds) and ran into a problem (I can't remember exactly what it was). However you might want to post your question on the main AIM board here --> http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=949
I'm sure you'll get some additional comments on the upside/downside.
Hello Jack,
Yes, re-installing Windows will do that. I'm glad to hear everything is fine now.
Hello again Jack,
I found your new registration request and registered you under the new registration code.
I'm not sure why your registration code changed.
Did you install the SP7 update on a new computer?
In any event, you should be set up now. Let me know how you make out.
Google Gears looks interesting. Thanks for the link.
A better scenario would be to install AI on the thumb drive. This would require a different licensing model where the license is not tied to the hardware.
You are correct on both counts. The big issue is the licensing. Not tying the software to the hardware makes it much easier to circumvent the licensing. And the more expensive the software, the higher the potential that this will occur. But still, it's something to think about.
However copying the database file will work right now -- not the idea I had initially envisioned when giving out free trials, but one that will work in a pinch.
Hello Jack,
You should not have had to register it again. Did you install it into the same folder where your AI SP6 was installed?
What happens when you try to open it? Does the unregistered window appear? Or is there another issue?
Let me know the details and I'll be able to resolve the problem.
I see that Openoffice evolved from StarOffice. Back about 10 years ago, I had downloaded and played around with StarOffice. I liked it, but it wasn't 100% compatible with Microsoft Office and I already had MS Office. So I stopped using it.
If anyone is successful in using BASE to generate user defined reports from AI, let me know.
Hi Ex,
AI's mdb file was not created with Access and does not contain queries or forms. Therefore it sounds like OpenOffice will do what AIMster wants (and it's free!).
That really opens an entirely new way to use AI. I imagine you could merge AI data with other programs' too.
Thanks for the information.
Hi AIMster,
I'm writing down all of your suggestions.
I had actually thought of an online version before (but the trouble with an online AI is that I would then be responsible for everyone's data -- and that's a business I definitely don't want to be in). However, what you suggest would get around that if the site where you uploaded your aidb.mdb file was in your control and only the shell was in my control.
Another alternative would be to put your aidb file on a thumbdrive (or email it to yourself) and take it with you.
Then if you really need to access your data (e.g. on days like today), just download the trial version of AI on any computer, copy over your data and you're set. When you're leaving for home, copy the data back to the thumb drive and then back to your home hard drive.
Thanks for the suggestion Tom. I'd be curious to know if Quicken can read MDB data files. If so, that would open up AI tremendously.
Please let me know if you find anything.
Hi Glenn,
I still have to finish writing the explanations for rebalancing and walk forward testing as it applies to PI 3.0. As soon as I finish I'll make it available.
In the meantime, you can Google for "walk forward testing" and you'll find lots of information on it. One example is here --> http://www.amibroker.com/guide/h_walkforward.html
The rebalancing engine uses standard rebalancing methods but is a bit more complicated to explain because it operates on 2 levels (long-term and short-term), so I can't point you to anything that fully explains it right now. However I will have a full explanation in the next few weeks.
I've set up a blog here --> http://aptusblog.wordpress.com/ where I plan to post the explanations. I'll also post an update here when the blog entries are ready.
Hi Glenn,
Computers today are very fast and they keep getting faster.
However there are certain bottlenecks that can cause significant delays. One such bottleneck is accessing data over the Internet. Until these data are returned, the software can't really do anything. Compared to local data access, remote data access is EXTREMELY slow (the interesting thing is that "slow" is relative. 15 years ago if you told someone you could analyze 8800 stocks in a few hours, they'd have thought that was fast).
By implementing some algorithms to minimize the number of network data requests and using caching techniques, more of the processing can be done locally and that's where the vast majority of the performance improvement comes from. A small percentage comes from optimizing the code.
As it turns out there are other techniques that can be used to further increase performance. Currently the software uses a synchronous pattern (i.e. it has to wait for a response before proceeding). Changing to an asynchronous pattern and taking advantage of today's multi-core processors, using threads, would further increase performance. However processing 8800+ stocks in 1 minute 20 seconds is fast enough so that this change is not currently necessary. Once foreign support is added (e.g. Canadian and European stocks) and the number of tickers increase dramatically, then I'll most likely implement the asynchronous pattern.
PI 3.0 will be subscription-based but it is a superset of VSS. Basically it includes everything VSS includes (i.e. the fundamental analyzer and the asset allocator) plus a portfolio manager (similar to AI's), a classic rebalancing engine, News reader, historical analyzer (that supports walk-forward testing) and a new short-term rebalancing function that I've been working on for the past year.
Hi AIMster,
Yes, it will. Shortly after the PI product is released, VSS will be upgraded to use the PI engine.
There is a new Service Pack (SP 7) available from --> http://www.automaticinvestor.com/ai30setup.exe
Download and install it into the SAME folder where your current version of AI is installed (ensure you back up your aidb.mdb database file first in case anything goes wrong).
This fixes a problem caused by a data format change on one of the sites from which AI pulls its data (and had been causing problems with AI's Fundamental Analyzer).
If you have questions, just let me know.
Hi Everyone, I'm looking for a few beta testers for my Pragmatic Investor software upgrade. If you're interested, please send me an email (mhing@automaticinvestor.com).
I plan to have the beta version released next week. Although its listed as an upgrade, it is head and shoulders above the current PI version. It also incorporates the Value Stock Selector functionality, but is MUCH faster (currently VSS takes anywhere from 17 minutes, on a new machine, to a few hours, on single core older machines, to scan 8800+ stocks. The version built into the new PI takes about 1 minute and 20 seconds on an OLD machine).
As usual, if you're a beta tester, you'll receive a free copy of the software when its released.
If you have any questions, just let me know.
Thanks.
Hi Everyone, I'm looking for a few beta testers for my Pragmatic Investor software upgrade. If you're interested, please send me an email (mhing@automaticinvestor.com).
I plan to have the beta version released next week. Although its listed as an upgrade, it is head and shoulders above the current PI version. It also incorporates the Value Stock Selector functionality, but is MUCH faster (currently VSS takes anywhere from 17 minutes, on a new machine, to a few hours, on single core older machines, to scan 8800+ stocks. The version built into the new PI takes about 1 minute and 20 seconds on an OLD machine).
As usual, if you're a beta tester, you'll receive a free copy of the software when its released.
If you have any questions, just let me know.
Thanks.
Hi AIMster,
I'm not familiar with any report generators, but I did a quick Google search and some low-cost/trial versions came up.
There was one (a bit expensive at $359) that looked like it could do everything -- queries, reports, charts, graphs, the works. However the low-cost ones seem to have the functionality you suggested.
Unfortunately I can't recommend any one in particular since I don't use them. However, your idea means that AI users aren't limited to the canned reports and can analyze their data in almost unlimited ways. I'm not sure why nobody thought of this before.
If you find a free or low-cost generator, let me know. I'd be interested in playing around with it. Perhaps sharing this type of thing will appeal to AI users more than sharing models.
Hi AIMster,
I'm a big fan of keeping all my data around.
As you say, it's probably not too often someone will go back to the start of their portfolio, but the odd time you want to can be quite valuable. Nobody would undo to the first transaction (doing this would delete all transactions that came after), but I can see people wanting to go back in time to see what they were doing and what their portfolio looked like at that point (and don't forget, the historical Notes field is accessed via the Transaction History list -- and notes are a good way to learn from your past as they show how your investment thinking evolves over time).
BTW, how large is your AI database file? The software usually does a compress on the database each time you exit so that helps keep the file size in line.
Regarding performance, there is a slight hit on VERY large databases, but I don't think it's anything an AI user would notice, even with many years of data. At the end of the day, the AI db, even used to its fullest, is not really that large relative to some other applications.
Even without getting 500 GB for $80, I don't think disk space would be an issue (I just purchased a 750GB internal drive for my iMac for $120 here in Canada -- we're a bit more expensive up here. Still, I remember paying $750 for a 5.25 inch floppy disk drive for my Radio Shack colour computer back in the early 1980s, so $120 is mind-boggling cheap).
Are you noticing any performance issues?
Regards,
Mark
http://www.AutomaticInvestor.com
http://www.ValueStockSelector.com
http://www.PragmaticInvestor.com
The VSS problem should now be fixed too.
Please try it again and let me know how you make out.
There is a new Service Pack (SP 7) available from --> http://www.automaticinvestor.com/ai30setup.exe
Download and install it into the SAME folder where your current version of AI is installed (ensure you back up your aidb.mdb database file first in case anything goes wrong).
This should fix the problem with the FA (which was caused by a data problem, but not a Yahoo! data problem. AI retrieved its 10 Year T-note rate data from another site and this caused the problem. I've changed it so that the T-note data is now retrieved from Yahoo! Finance's site).
Yes, that is a problem. Another user just brought that to my attention. I'm looking for the problem right now. What version and service pack of VSS do you have installed?
Regards,
Mark
http://www.AutomaticInvestor.com
http://www.ValueStockSelector.com
http://www.PragmaticInvestor.com
Apparently I was mistaken in thinking that the price/cash flow data was a problem. I've spent some time looking at this and it appears to have never been retrieved in any version of Automatic Investor. In fact I have a note saying this should be implemented once the Yahoo! data supports it (I suppose I should have removed it from the GUI rather than saying it was not available).
Therefore price/cash flow is not the cause of problems you see.
I'm running some FA tests now to see if I can spot any problems. So far the data retrieved for MSFT appears to be correct and it is rated at 1.50 (so it's a big drop from last year).
I'll try some other large and mid-cap tickers and let you know what I discover.
For anyone else who has VSS, the answer is that if you purchased it prior to July 2007, you are not on a subscription but your data is just as valid (basically you are grandfathered and receive the updated information at no charge).
For those who purchased after that date, you're on a subscription (either annual or monthly).
Hi AIMster,
As usual your suggestion is very good, but there are 2 issues right now.
1) VSS is currently a subscription-based package because it uses data that I have to continually update on one of my servers. However AI is not subscription-based because it retrieves its data directly from Yahoo! Finance. So to implement VSS-like functionality in AI would either mean charging a recurring fee to AI users or having VSS users subsidize AI users. Neither of these options are good ones at the moment.
2) I'm in the process of finishing a major update to the Pragmatic Investor software and thus my time is extremely limited.
However I like your idea. Of course the work-around is to use VSS to create the list of stocks, export it to a text file and then import this file into AI and analyze it. Not the seamless solution you're proposing, but it would work and it's not too difficult to do. The one thing missing would be the automatic sort, but that can be eye-balled.
Hi Asahi,
Could you refresh my memory on the "Cup and Handle" software? It's not ringing any bells.
Regards,
Mark
http://www.AutomaticInvestor.com
http://www.ValueStockSelector.com
http://www.PragmaticInvestor.com
Hi AIMster,
Yes, Aptus is a popular name and is used by a few other companies. I came up with the name for my company (Aptus Communications Inc.) in 1995 after brainstorming with a couple of others and thought it was fairly unique.
However since that time I've seen it used time and time again. The gaming company looks interesting, but I have no affiliation with them.
It will be fixed. When it is I will post the information here.
It looks like the Price/Cash Flow data is not being retrieved successfully. I'll have a look at the Yahoo! data and see what's up.
What are the ticker symbols you are analyzing?
If any item in the FA gives a NA then the result is not complete. Otherwise, the results are correct.
I've noticed that the e!update function is working again and Yahoo! has gone back to their original format. I'm not sure what Yahoo! is doing, but until they settle on a format I can't issue an AI patch.
I'll continue to monitor and see if they settle on something.
It looks like Yahoo! has changed their quote format again.
They were probably in the process of doing this over the past
month or so but kept the old format around and didn't do a complete change until today (which would explain the intermittent problems).
However I just checked and the old format is no longer there, so I would expect that e!update will not work for any stock.
I'll work on putting a patch together over the next few days. In the meantime, the workaround is to manually update your stock prices.
Thanks for the heads up.
Hi Glenn,
I've been trying to track down the problem with CHS but lately it's been working so I can't recreate it.
Don Carlson had sent me an email saying that another software package he uses stated there was a problem with Yahoo! data, however it appears any such problem has been corrected, at least from AI's perspective.
Is this still happening at all on your system? I know it has happened to me at least once last month when you first reported it -- unfortunately I wasn't able to debug it at that time.
Let me know if it happens again and I'll try to recreate the problem that day.
Thanks Tom!
Hi Steve,
Thanks for the tickers. Yes, happy to hold for at least 5 years but can trade or even sell out completely (e.g. LD-AIM) if necessary. The intent is to find stocks that if you had to hold for 5 years, you would be willing to do so and wouldn't be too nervous about it.