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No selling reported yet and down again today. It's going to be in the 30s at this rate. Seems like the sell-on-news crowd is selling before the news :P
I'm hoping investors wouldn't be that stupid to sell based on that.
There was a pretty large sell off in small bios across the board so Im guessing it had to do with that.
Basically about 3500 calls on both the dec 12 and 13. I don't recall seeing that much call volume in a while.
Nowlurking,
Any insight into the heavy call volume on the Dec 12 and 13 calls yesterday? TIA
ISI agrees with you. From twitter Ian Estepan on twitter:
ISI says after reading CP denial - some language in the response could indicate that FDA is still some ways away from generic approval $TEVA
What a crazy reversal. I think that was one last ditch effort for the shorts to cover
I think they call this a "bear raid"? ;)
Kind of curious it's down to low 40s while ABBV is at all time highs after early European approval. I wonder if the quite large ENTA short interest has anything to do with the downward pressure.
Brokers are also cutting off margin access to MNTA probably because of that high short %
And he did still say that approval could certainly still come in 2014. FDA's response to TEVA's CP is coming so perhaps that could be a good time.
MNTA has sold 0 stock through the ATM financing to date per Rich Shea on the quaterly webcast today.
you'd think if there was a SCOTUS leak TEVA would be up.sharply
when's the earliest we could hear about the case?
I lean heavily towards your side of the spectrum regarding valuation although I find WorstLuck's and Rocky's recent posts to be quite helpful to the overall discussion.
Furthermore, this could be a "sell the news" mentality. FWIW I think it's a nice opportunity to add a few more shares before the fireworks start in Dec.
I still think Craig's comment that copax approval may leak into 2015 and bios getting hit hard in general are what primarily drove the price down. I don't see investors really getting that spooked to sell because mnta is going to burn $5-10m a year going forward.
If an MNTA investor thinks mCopax is the only thing of value to the company then they probably shouldn't be invested in MNTA to begin with.
I guess what I meant by Copax approval is basically mirroring what you said in that the PPS is currently too low to use it.
I fully expect MNTA to use the ATM once copax is approved, but I do not expect them to use it before then.
No m-copax approval + thrice weekly doing really well is responsible for that imo
FWIW I'm guessing part the sharp drop today (in addition to increased burn) was perhaps investors expected some sort of assurance or update on copax apprvoal which leads me to believe the drop will be short lived
Perhaps a reason for the weakness yesterday:
Teva Patent Case Likely to Be Sent Back to Federal Circuit: Citi
Friday, October 10, 2014 05:02 AM
by Catherine Larkin
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Teva faces >60% odds that U.S. Supreme Court will send invalidated Copaxone 20mg patent back to Federal Circuit for reevaluation under new legal standard, Citi analyst Liav Abraham (buy, PT $70) says in note yday.
Implies further delay to resolution of case, would give Teva more time to switch patients to longer-acting 40mg dose
Citi expects ruling in early 2015; generic cos. unlikely to pursue “at-risk” sales before IP resolution, would be liable for substantial damages if patent ultimately upheld by courts
Base case model assumes generic approval, introduction in 1Q15
NOTE: Supreme Court will hear Copaxone case Oct. 15
I agree with Rocky in that it's probably a big buyer and/or short covering... You'd think if it was Harvoni related ABBV would also be up to some degree. I do agree with with you that Rocky's alternate reasons are less likely.
I mentioned on twitter but any ideas on what this portends to (if anything?)
Rather early to call MRK's IDIX aquisition "excellent" eh?
Also, you'd think if a $50+ PPS for ACHN was coming, perhaps those insiders wouldn't be selling those 11 million shares and counting at the current price?
Yes, why? What's the correlation b/t that and the stock price?
ACHN now valued at about $450m more than ENTA. hah! :)
IMO It is very unlikely the 40mg patents will hold much water all considering.
Momenta Pharmaceuticals Announces Abbreviated New Drug Application for Three-Times-a-Week Generic Copaxone Accepted for Review by FDA
CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Aug. 28, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Momenta Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq:MNTA) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has accepted for review the Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for a three-times-a-week generic COPAXONE® (glatiramer acetate injection, 40 mg/mL), submitted by Sandoz Inc., Momenta's development and commercialization partner for this product candidate.
Based on publicly-available information, Momenta believes that, should the ANDA be approved, it would be eligible for 180-day first-to-file exclusivity under Hatch-Waxman. The product could be on the market as early as the first quarter of 2017, assuming the Paragraph IV challenge is successful and adheres to customary Hatch-Waxman litigation timelines. Since the 40 mg/mL formulation contains the same drug substance as the 20 mg/mL ANDA currently under review by the FDA, Momenta anticipates the FDA review process can be completed within the same time frame.
"We are pleased to announce the acceptance of the ANDA for our three-times-a-week generic Copaxone for revi
but here is what they said: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BvFCSC5CIAACZDB.png:large
Is it really needed? Just take a look at DD's valuation model and you'll find all you need! :)
Beating a dead horse on this one JBog. I think we've all agreed that MNTA's lack of enforcement on it's board governance is pretty ridiculous.
Amazing ACHN is now almost a $1b cap ($200m more than ENTA) based on that data today which doesn't seem that important in the grand scheme of things.
This is true, but last year and 2012 had a fair amount of automatic sales in mid/late August. If there are no sells the rest of this month, then I will certainly give a little more weight to the lack of sales being on purpose rather than a coincidence.
ACHN market cap now about $80m more than ENTA. Something here doesn't compute imo.
ACHN just surpassed ENTA in market cap. Yeah, okay! :)
4.8m on 4/15 and 6.6m as of 7/15
A lot of small/mid cap bios have experienced a pretty large short % increase over the past month or so.
I just picked up a batch of shares in the mid 37s, FWIW.
I'll jump in and say DD's model significantly underestimates ENTAs other assets (the ones I previously mentioned) and that even if his 38% market sure is incorrect, they will more than pick up the slack.
I was being facetious about baird mainly commenting on how silly their "downgrade" was. :)
To you your points, yes while no P3s around the corner, there are still multiple catalysts for ENTA before year end other than approval of the 3 DAA regimen: EDP 239 data/trials starting, more info the 2-DAA regimen with ABBV, ENTA selecting nuc to move forward. All told, I think ENTA certainly has room to double from here (a double here is around $1.5b cap) and as you mentioned, their strong cash position and future revenues should limit the downside.