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Hi Capt..re:Yahoo site. I have seen some discussion of it...would you mind giving a quick synopsis of why the group is migrating there?....I'm not sure I understand. Thanks.
daa....yes, that's correct. I change to be in sync with the signal at the morning trade time. One time I didn't, and lost nearly 2% (2X basis) as the price followed the signal down.......another time I actually got a better entry because the after-hours signal change was to short, but at the first 2 hours of trading the next morning, the price was up about 0.4% (again 2X), and so I got some extra profits (because the prelim signal was long) and then profited more from the short as the price reversed downward the rest of the day. (serendipity)
I think it was pt that suggested, that if you don't believe the signal, go to cash.....you are better off not to go against the signal. I think that is right, based on my experiences. Regards.
Hi Ken; Yes, SC working fine this morning..here is a chart that could be profitably used for QLD/QID traders..it is the Rydex equivalent funds. The ema crossover, and the hammer being the Aroon cross, if you had only taken a half position at the ema cross, would probably make some money. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RYVYX:RYNVX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p64594535008...
no post........trouble with Stockcharts tonight.
Hi Tad; Any commitment on posting will have to come from the Capt...and I'm sure he will respond. I trade Rydex both morning and afternoon trade times. I can say that, generally speaking, the signal seems to be in place by 3:00-3:10...and about the latest I've seen it is 3:28.
I sense that when it's a little late in being posted, it may be that the signal is close to an edge and vascillating.
The Rydex morning time has been of more use than I thought it would be....on the few times that signal has changed after hours...I have gotten on the right side of the signal at the morning opportunity. The one time I didn't I paid for it by watching all day as the signal went in the after-hours signal direction, and against the position I had taken at days end, and then stubbornly didn't change at 10:30 AM/.
Having an after-hours change isn't all bad either....I also have scored extra profits, by having the opening go against the after hours signal change from the prelim...so that when I took the signal position at 10:30, I got a better entry, and then watched as the rest of the day the market moved in the direction of the signal.
Regards.
FM.......I think you will be pleased with the results. Here's to future profits for all of us....Regards.
LC...yes, there is fairly strong support around the 1700-1710 level via Burge, or other methods. The P&F chart shows a prelim price objective of 1690..I would not be surprised to see at least a temporary support level around 1700..and perhaps a reversal upwards. All in due time, I suppose.
I think the reminder of the cheerleading, is that we should be careful not to suggest what the present position of the signal is........let's all do our cheerleading after the signal is closed, or in such a way that the signal is not compromised. The amigos deserve compensation for their intellectual property, and giving it away is not in the best interest of any subscribers. We want the friends to remain motivated in their considerable work to service the sub base, as well as continue improvements. I suggest, with respect, that all of us think a bit before we post......Best Regards.
Quadruple breakdown of support on the NDX P&F chart.....interesting, to say the least..http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$NDX,P&listNum=1
You 3 amigos are going to spoil us....kudos on the improvements..but it's kinda like improving a BMW...Regards.
Anyone else take notice when the BPNDX crosses the 20ema from a high level?? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p25605284558&...
Weekly Trendfinder indicating the long trend since early August may be over..note PPO and StoRsi..http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p60654294112&a=...
Quadruple O's on the NDX P&F chart...a break below 1760 could open gates..http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$NDX,P&listNum=1
Thanks BobJack....that was my problem I guess, I was misspelling his name. I thought it was spelled the same as Lou Boudreau, the old Cajan who was a Cleveland shortstop, and later Cub broadcaster for many years.
I think the system did fail him, probably because of what Kovu remembers...I only recall that at one time it was getting a lot of buzz on one of the chat sites.
Good work Capt..rec'd the PM signal, and thanks also for the early warning today. I was able to enter a change at the Rydex morning time...I am also going to start checking the TMG site earlier in the morning. I almost waited too long today, getting caught up in some of the sports news. Best Regards.
Speaking of timing services..a year or two ago on one of these chat sites, there was a fellow named John Boudreau who developed a 2X type of system using one of the commercial sites.
His 2X system had to do with it being necessary for both a long-term and short-term signal provided by the same site to be in sync in order to take a position. I remember that there were quite a few enthusiasts posting here at the time..but I guess the signals did not perform well, or have gone underground.
Does anyone know where John Boudreau is posting now? Thanks.
Steve...I think what would be attractive would be a Rydex-type service that allows one to take a market position at the open. That would then follow the TMG signal, as the signal was developed to trade next day open.
If anyone knows of such a service, it would be appreciated. Thanks.
yes, I agree..the idea is nearly preposterous that a large mutual fund company, say Fidelity, were to follow Merlin.
My point is, IF that were to happen, wouldn't it be to the small users benefit? Wouldn't we profit, because we can move in and out easily?..they would not be able to move the extremely large amounts as easily..and when they did it would only profit our position.
Steve; yes, I agree with your summary...
One of the "fears" seems to be that a "large company" will start to follow Merlin..presumably one large enough to swing the market.
Help me with this...wouldn't that be to the benefit of the "small guys", i.e., the signal goes long, we go long..the large company goes long, driving our position higher, and making it profitable..the signal goes short..we go short..the large company goes short driving the market lower, again making our position profitable.
Don't we benefit if that were to happen??
Hi John; Good to hear we have an Aussie friend here (at least by adoption)...My wife and I enjoyed a nice visit to your wonderful land during the past year...and we loved it all.
Amigos...congratulations on the new sub number..and this is to let you know that my credit card was properly debited as it should have been, as my month anniversary arrived. That is to let you know that the billing portion of C2 seems to be working right. I'm happy to share a portion of the nice profits with you three. Best Regards.
Ken: re: the HG Award..I concur. We all know the win/losses will revert to the mean.....but..wowsie...what a start...and the reversion to mean is still great. Maybe after the Capt gets settled in Barbados in a few years, he will have one of those Tennessee BBQ's for the subs..(g) That may be a very large gathering.
Alfred, Eddie.....thanks much for your input. Everyones input has been helpful.....but I realized that putting the IRA at Rydex overcomes the fill problems (never a problem), eliminates the trading fee, and eliminates the 3 day mandatory settlement time before the cash can be used again.
The only negative with Rydex is that you can only trade at 10:30AM, or End of Day........and by golly, compared to the other handicaps, those limited trade times do not seem very major.
I think I am going from Fidelity to Rydex. Thanks to everyone for helping me see through the smog and cinders.......Best Regards.
flat.......yes, as I was just posting to MVP, the IRA problems with Fidelity, or anyone else, excluding Rydex or Profunds, is that there is the 3 day settling period before the cash is available for another buy.
Couple that with fill problems on QID/QLD.....and the fact that there is never any problem in switching between the 2X Long and 2X Short funds at Rydex....PLUS...no trading charges at Rydex.....and it is probably a no-brainer to roll my IRA from Fidelity to Rydex.
Yes, there are the limitations on trade times at Rydex, but they seem more than offset by (1) the 3 day settling period (2) the trading fees (3) the fill problems on QID/QLD.
I have been very happy with service, performance, etc. at Rydex........The preliminary TMG signal from the Captain, with comments at times that alert you that the signal may be wavering, seem to be sufficient to make an informed decision at end of day trading at Rydex.....at least my experience has been good so far.
I guess I am talking myself into moving another IRA to Rydex, because the Rydex trade time is a lesser problem than the others I mentioned. Best Regards.
Thanks for the response Steve...yes, that is what I would expect. I was wondering if there were any reason why that would be a chronic problem, and not simply one of growth. I'm assuming that as their customer base grows, that fills will not be an issue.
Sometimes I feel so silly...I have been upset at Fidelity, where I have a couple IRA's..because of the 3 day settling period. I didn't realize that is a government imposed restriction on all IRA's. I was ready to roll the Fid IRA to Scott, before I found I would have the same restriction at Scott.
I have been holding QQQQ's at Fidelity, and started thinking of trading the QID/QLD based on the TMG signal. The settling period means that I would have to wait 3 days for the money to appear as "cash" so that I could take a new position.
One option would be to divide the money into 3 parts, (it might have to be 4 parts if TMG were to change positions every day for awhile(?))...then, I think there should be cash always available to take the newest TMG position.
Is there a more intelligent, better option that anyone can think of????? Thanks much.
There is a great amount of wisdom available here..and I have a question(s).
Someone mentioned there may be a liquidity problem in getting fills on QID and QLD........was that just a start-up problem for ProShares? Does it yet exist, and do you expect it to continue to exist? The share quantity I'm thinking of is a 1000 share block, for reference. Thanks for the answers.
kovu..that's a good price for that close to Disney..I'm jealous of the coasters. My wife has developed a vertigo problem, so I don't think she will go on any more with me. We met a son, his wife, and grandkids down there a few years ago, and rode everything over and over..great memories.
kovu...yep, that's right..the nice thing about Rydex (Profunds too, I'm sure) is that you can exchange between long and short funds to your hearts content....and what you describe is what I do....Regards.
Thanks Sam.....I need to talk to them on the phone, to make sure their custodianship is going to allow the type of trading I want to do.......and I think they are $7/trade, if I recall.
Dan......I am also interested in your question about brokers..Some touted Brown, some Ameritrade, some Scott...
I would like to transfer an IRA from Fidelity to another brokerage, where I would have the flexibility to trade the ProShares funds any time of day.
Any comments on costs/executions/related matters by anyone with good or bad experiences would be appreciated. Thanks.
Hi Bub; Yes, I am one of those Rydex traders, and a sub to the TMG system. First, as to the signal itself...it has been phenomonal, as can be seen by the record since it has gone public. Second....it is a system designed to trade at next-day-open..obviously a problem for us Rydex users.
I find the 10:30 order time is not usually optimum, because much of the days move has already occurred by that hour. I think one would profit because the signal is so good, but you would also leave a lot on the table.
The Capt provides a preliminary signal for the next day position by 3:30......if the system remains stable, that is the signal for the day. If there is a change, he tries to let us know of the change by 3:45-3:50..so we can still make the 3:55 cutoff for dynamic fund orders.
I have been taking the recommended preliminary position about 3:50, so that I get the eod position change. It has worked pretty well, so far. Of the nine positions recommended by the prelim signal, 8 were profitable when take end of day....the one day that was a loser, there was a late change in the signal, so I was on the wrong side of the signal.....I want to emphasize that the signal at the eod was correct, it was just that the signal was wavering by 3:30, and changed after all the compilations were completed after the market close.
What I should have done was just go to cash in that instance, since the Capt mentioned in the prelim note that it could go either way later.
Hope this helps. Regards.
CSGCOS is now giving a short signal with the NDX price drop below the 10ema, and the NASI 10/17 having crossed over. The Capt wisely pointed out on one occasion or more, that it is risky to short an uptrend. OTOH, this trend is pretty extended by several measures...NAA50, BPNDX, etc...so maybe it will soon not be an uptrend.
Those who were expecting the usual summer dip were surprised this year, perhaps the usual year end rally will not happen either.
Where is Keith?? Do we need to put out an APB on his location..or is it an undisclosed location?
Anyone following CSGCOS? By my adaptation of it, if the NDX falls to 1786 or so, conditions for a short would be in place. The NASI 10/17 ema crossed over downwards today, and if price falls below the 10ema..it would be the signal.
Capt..I'm assuming that the timing on the prelim signal will be about the same, right?......i.e, C2 is not going to have a delay in forwarding the signal.
It sounds like it is a good way to handle if from your end. I guess it also means that your sub base is increasing rapidly...good for the amigos...7 wins out of 7 signals is outstanding in any language.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPNDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p25605284558&...
BP's getting well extended now......one of those necessary, but not sufficient conditions for a correction.
Jared..I think you have some important work here..I don't understand it all at first read, but I plan to study it. I have been fighting the flu for the past few days...nasty, and yes I did get my shot. When I feel better I intend to study it further. Regards.
double top P&F breakout on the NDX today that is worth noting..and a much larger one 10 points ahead.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$NDX,P&listNum=1
oh sure...the assets of the nation will be used to raise the poor from poverty. Ummm...worked real well in Russia, didn't it? Sheesh.
daav....I have been trying to make the full move at the PM close. The reason being that the signal seems to be darn good...and by the time the 10:45 morning time rolls around, a lot of the move has already occurred, usually in the direction of the signal..and it's not in your favor to enter then.
One morning since I have been a sub, the eod signal was to go long....I had gone long eod because the prelim signal was long. However, the next morning there was an initial drop, giving me a better entry point long on some additional money at 10:45. I did make a little money on that entry..but most of the time I have found the eod to be better on Rydex.
If Rydex allowed one to place an order at the open, that would be the best....but they don't..you have to have your order in by 10:30..and then you get the 10:45 pricing.
If you have dis-similar results, I would like to hear about it. I haven't studied it thoroughly, but it seems like the morning trade opportunity is only occasionally beneficial.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$NDX,P&listNum=1
The NDX is at a double bottom P&F....a break of that and there could be a bit of downside ahead. Also the NASI 10/17ema may cross over at the end of day..another shorting signal. All fwiw.